1gap2gap's Miami theory

[ans4e64]

Not doing any research on the topic, i thought to myself, you've got to be kidding. Miami puts out quality players every year, they had 6 first round picks alone in 2004. Sure, some of their players have character problems, but they all have extreme talent and perform well. I did the research for myself, hoping to bash 1gap2gap's opinions, but i found it interesting.

 

 

Im placing all of their first round picks since they year 2000 into 3 categories, those who have made it and done well, and those who havent due to injuries, poor play, or anything else that have kept them playing for whatever reason, and i have a category where I am unsure about the player. I was definitely surprised by the outcome.

 

 

Made it:

 

1.) Reggie Wayne

( I'm putting him in as made it, I'm going against 1gap2gap's argument for Wayne because the Colts didnt draft Wayne to become the next superstar, they wanted a compliment to Marvin Harrison and that's what Wayne has givent them, so the pick was successful)

 

2.) Jeremy Shockey

3.) Ed Reed

4.) Andre Johnson

5.) Willis McGahee - i know some people are mad about his lack of effort or whatever, but to come back from what he did to rush for over 1,000 yards in each of his first 2 years starting is remarkable

6.) Jonathan Vilma

7.) Vince Wilfork

 

 

Not made it:

 

1.) Bubba Franks

2.) Dan Morgan - he's dominant when he plays, but just hasnt really seen the field consistantly

3.) Damione Lewis

4.) Bryant McKinnie

5.) Philip Buchanon

6.) Mike Rumph

7.) Jerome McDougal

8.) Sean Taylor - he is a freak of nature, but because he hasnt performed, and even when he did this year his legal and even on the field toubles (spitting) have become rediculous

9.) Kellen Winslow Jr. - we know

10.) D.J. Williams - i remember the pre-season game against us his first year, he was rediculous and i expected him to become dominant, he hasnt, and i havent really heard anything about him even with denver's recent success and their playoff run.

11.) Vernon Carey - i like 1gap2gap's argument for him, he hasnt even started

12.) Antrel Rolle - loved this kid coming out of college, but he hasnt played yet

 

 

Unsure:

 

1.) William Joseph - I havent really seen him play, but i hear he is starting to develop and come on strong. The argument against him is that he was a first round pick and was expected to dominate, which he hasnt. Also he is starting to blossom but it isnt as if he is even dominating yet.

 

2.) Santana Moss - A lot of people consider him a success because of the year he had last year. It was amazing i agree, but it took him this long to do it and its only one season. Since he was a first round pick and absolutely dominated at the WR position and as a punt returner, i am unsure of where to put him

 

 

 

I think there are a lot of different arguments here. Some of these players that i have listed on the "didnt make it list" are in fact good players, but not anything compared to the hype and the way they played in college and they didnt warrant first round pick status. Also i think most everybody on that same list could still perform in the future, but injuries have slowed most of them down and also some just need more time. One could also say that they put out more athletes than any other schools, but they also but out more duds. There are players that i wouldnt have thought were duds, but when i really thought about it, next to their hype and number picked, they were in fact duds. One could also say that because they put out more athletes, naturally they will have more that fail.

 

I dont even really have a point that i am trying to make, other than my opinions before and after were different. I'm not saying i agree with 1gap2gap, or that i am against him, but a lot of people said look at the facts, and thats what i wanted to put out here for everyone to read and then you can make your own opinions.

 

I just wanted to say i am surprised at what i found when actually looking at the players listed above. I dont consider their program a success or failure, i dont even know what to think other than at this point, there are more players on the failed than passed list. I'd like to hear what other people have to say.

[ans4e64]

I just wanted to say i also think that in 5 years, the list could look like this:

 

Made it:

 

1.) Reggie Wayne

( I'm putting him in as made it, I'm going against 1gap2gap's argument for Wayne because the Colts didnt draft Wayne to become the next superstar, they wanted a compliment to Marvin Harrison and that's what Wayne has givent them, so the pick was successful)

 

2.) Jeremy Shockey

3.) Ed Reed

4.) Andre Johnson

5.) Willis McGahee - i know some people are mad about his lack of effort or whatever, but to come back from what he did to rush for over 1,000 yards in each of his first 2 years starting is remarkable

6.) Jonathan Vilma

7.) Vince Wilfork

8.) Antrel Rolle

9.) Vernon Carey

10.) DJ Williams

11.) Kellen Winslow Jr.

12.) Sean Taylor

 

 

Not made it:

 

1.) Bubba Franks

2.) Dan Morgan - he's dominant when he plays, but just hasnt really seen the field consistantly

3.) Damione Lewis

4.) Bryant McKinnie

5.) Philip Buchanon

6.) Mike Rumph

7.) Jerome McDougal

 

 

i think this is what it will look like, but at this point it doesnt

[1gap2gap]

An excellent post. You stated your case much better then I did.

 

Now lets see what the reaction is!

[ans4e64]

An excellent post. You stated your case much better then I did. 

 

Now lets see what the reaction is!  

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if you are saying i did a great job of proving a point, you're wrong. If you mean i did a great job of proving your point, you are also wrong lol. Im not trying to prove a point nor and i trying to prove your point. I disagree with probably 98% of your post.

 

Ray Lewis? i dont have to mention all the acalades, and by the way, he was never convicted of murder, therefore he didnt do it, therefore check his police record yourself and you wont find anything relating to murder

 

Jeremy Shockey is one of the best TE's in football

 

E. James is one of the best RB's in football

 

McGahee, see my above post.

 

Vilma, if i had to start a team, i take the young vilma at teh middle linebacker position, he is an excellent player

 

Ed Reed, best safety in football, right up there with polamolu

 

 

Im not saying you are right, im just trying to look at this myself, in a more calm fashion than those 2 threads with everybody screaming, i hope others will do the same

[1gap2gap]

I didn't think for a minute that you did agree with me. I just felt you stated your case better then I stated mine.

 

But the numbers are still the numbers and you can adjust them with opinion by one or two players. But when you add everything up (as you and I have) the actual number of players that have impacted the NFL in the 1st round from this program from 1990 to 2005 is shocking low.

 

And I never said what Lewis did or didn't do off the field. I just said that IMO he is an embarrassment.

 

It's still a good post.

[Orton's Arm]

Ray Lewis? i dont have to mention all the acalades, and by the way, he was never convicted of murder, therefore he didnt do it, therefore check his police record yourself and you wont find anything relating to murder

601804[/snapback]

Sometimes, people get away with things. Sometimes, there just isn't enough evidence to convict a guilty person. I don't know enough about the Ray Lewis case to be sure of what he did or didn't do. Do you?

 

As for your main post, I've heard the success rate for first round picks in general is about 50%. So if a few guys in your post's unsuccessful or unsure categories move their way into the successful category, Miami's record will be par for the course.

[dave mcbride]

I just wanted to say i also think that in 5 years, the list could look like this:

 

Made it:

 

1.) Reggie Wayne

( I'm putting him in as made it, I'm going against 1gap2gap's argument for Wayne because the Colts didnt draft Wayne to become the next superstar, they wanted a compliment to Marvin Harrison and that's what Wayne has givent them, so the pick was successful)

 

2.) Jeremy Shockey

3.) Ed Reed

4.) Andre Johnson

5.) Willis McGahee - i know some people are mad about his lack of effort or whatever, but to come back from what he did to rush for over 1,000 yards in each of his first 2 years starting is remarkable

6.) Jonathan Vilma

7.) Vince Wilfork

8.) Antrel Rolle

9.) Vernon Carey

10.) DJ Williams

11.) Kellen Winslow Jr.

12.) Sean Taylor

Not made it:

 

1.) Bubba Franks

2.) Dan Morgan - he's dominant when he plays, but just hasnt really seen the field consistantly

3.) Damione Lewis

4.) Bryant McKinnie

5.) Philip Buchanon

6.) Mike Rumph

7.) Jerome McDougal

i think this is what it will look like, but at this point it doesnt

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you know, bubba franks is a pretty good tight end, especially as a blocker. he's by no means a bust.

[ans4e64]

you know, bubba franks is a pretty good tight end, especially as a blocker. he's by no means a bust.

601975[/snapback]

 

 

yeah, i dont think he is a bust, im just saying that his play doesnt warrant a first round pick status thats all. Knowing what you know about him now, would you still pick him in the first round? i know i wouldnt. He his great in the red zone but is virtually non-existant in the rest of the field, and this is with farvre throwing to him. I think he's a good player dont get me wrong, but i dont think he's lived up to his potential.

[ans4e64]

Sometimes, people get away with things. Sometimes, there just isn't enough evidence to convict a guilty person. I don't know enough about the Ray Lewis case to be sure of what he did or didn't do. Do you?

 

As for your main post, I've heard the success rate for first round picks in general is about 50%. So if a few guys in your post's unsuccessful or unsure categories move their way into the successful category, Miami's record will be par for the course.

601941[/snapback]

 

i dont know anything about the ray lewis case other than he was charged with a crime, and then found innocent. To me that says he didnt do it, even if i knew all the facts, the judge and the jury would without a doubt know more than me, so i trust their decision.

 

I agree with you about the players moving up, if you look at the 2nd post i put where i think those player will be in 5 years, and the majority of them move to the successful list.

[Orton's Arm]

i dont know anything about the ray lewis case other than he was charged with a crime, and then found innocent. To me that says he didnt do it, even if i knew all the facts, the judge and the jury would without a doubt know more than me, so i trust their decision.

602054[/snapback]

The thing is, the judge and jury never said he didn't do it. They just said there wasn't enough evidence to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he did.

[ans4e64]

The thing is, the judge and jury never said he didn't do it. They just said there wasn't enough evidence to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he did.

602158[/snapback]

 

 

lol, so if there was no evidence that he did it, what does that tell you? haha