Crap Throwing Monkey Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Speculation built on speculation. Why on earth should Iran give one of it's precious nukes (when and if it manages to make one) to Al-Qaeda? Where is the evidence that Iran is allied to Al-Qaeda? Why should Iran (overwhelmingly Shiite) ally itself with an organisation which regards them as heretics and has slaughtered Shiites by the thousand in Iraq?591143[/snapback] Most Americans don't know that not only were the Iranian-backed Shi'ia in western Afghanistan fierce competitors with the eastern Sunnis throughout the '80s and '90s, but that the Taliban executed a half-dozen Iranian diplomats in the late '90s, and as a result Iran nearly went to war with the Taliban and al Qaeda. Most Americans don't realize that not only would a lot of these groups and countries be gleefully making war on each other in the absence of a common enemy like Israel or the US, but not infrequently gleefully make war on each other in the presence of a common enemy as well. How could Al-Qaeda actually hit the US? Does it have intercontinental ballistic missiles? Are you assuming that they could just sneak one into the US in a suitcase or something? Even assuming that technology exists, how easy would it be to get an atomic bomb through customs? Not as easy as it used to be (I believe - but can't prove - that one of the reasons the whole "we must inspect every shipping container that arrives in the US" idea went nowhere is because the radiation detectors are sensitive enough that the container won't get past the immediate unloading pier anyway). But it can still be done. Off the top of my head, I can think of three ways al-Qaeda could deploy a nuclear warhead to the US without getting caught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crap Throwing Monkey Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 According to Bush all we need to do is encourage democracy in the Middle East and everything will be OK. It's working in Iraq and Palestine, and they just elected their president in Iran. He's just getting settled in with some saber rattling. So relax. Voters in democracies always make the right decisions, just like we did in the U.S. (End sarcasm). 591087[/snapback] Seriously, now...how many people realized when it was first stated that the policy of "exporting democracy" was transparently stupid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Off the top of my head, I can think of three ways al-Qaeda could deploy a nuclear warhead to the US without getting caught. 591206[/snapback] No great insight there. With a couple of thousand miles of sea and land borders, one could move a hundred pounds of potaotes over same 24/7. Stopping those potatoes, even if my potatoes flung off copious gammas, is not possible. For land access, I can't criticize either Canada or Mexico. Even if they cared to the nth degree, they are helpless given geography and mileage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 The economic ramifications...basically, it drives the price of oil up, at the very least for taking Iranian oil off the market (Which is the best case. Worst case is that the plan is implemented stupidly, leaving Iranian shore-based anti-shipping installations intact, and the Iranians start lobbing missiles at everybody else's tankers and close the Straits of Hormuz. That's unlikely...the people who do the operational planning aren't that stupid.) Ultimately, though, anyone who's a net importer of oil gets their economy smacked around some by increased energy prices (though consistent supply isn't likely to be a problem...maybe for Europe or China, but we get a small enough portion of our oil from Iran that our biggest problem will likely be pricing, not supply.) But I'm not much of an economist...and things usually have a nasty habit of unrolling in ways nobody expects... 591198[/snapback] you're right, if you cut out any supply of oil from the world market it will likely cause a short run hike in the price level since the demand will still be there because of oil's low elasticity of demand. Gov't intervention will have to step in when things get out of control to keep it from skyrocketing because the oil market is rather unstable and it takes a long time before the supplies can be-adjusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBTG81 Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 you're right, if you cut out any supply of oil from the world market it will likely cause a short run hike in the price level since the demand will still be there because of oil's low elasticity of demand. Gov't intervention will have to step in when things get out of control to keep it from skyrocketing because the oil market is rather unstable and it takes a long time before the supplies can be-adjusted. 591398[/snapback] I believe, and I'm not entirely sure about this, is that Iran's oil only equals 4% of what we use. The Saudi's, or other sources, would then pump up their supply to meet demand. It would only make sense. They would profit tremendously over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crap Throwing Monkey Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I believe, and I'm not entirely sure about this, is that Iran's oil only equals 4% of what we use. The Saudi's, or other sources, would then pump up their supply to meet demand. It would only make sense. They would profit tremendously over it. 591571[/snapback] 4% of what we use. We're not the only ones that import oil. Hell, one of the main reasons demand for oil has gone up in the past 5 or so years is Chinese demand. And last I checked, Europeans own cars too. And according to the DOE, our imports of oil from Iran amount to precisely zero barrels...yet, Iran's the fourth-biggest exporter of oil in the world. So theoretically, if we shut down Iranian oil exports it doesn't hurt us...except that the people that do buy Iranian oil will have to get it from somewhere else, which means they're competing against us four our oil supplies, which WILL hurt us. The ultimate truth is that world oil supplies right now are so tight compared to demand that taking any measurable amount off the market is bound to cause prices to skyrocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 4% of what we use. We're not the only ones that import oil. Hell, one of the main reasons demand for oil has gone up in the past 5 or so years is Chinese demand. And last I checked, Europeans own cars too. And according to the DOE, our imports of oil from Iran amount to precisely zero barrels...yet, Iran's the fourth-biggest exporter of oil in the world. So theoretically, if we shut down Iranian oil exports it doesn't hurt us...except that the people that do buy Iranian oil will have to get it from somewhere else, which means they're competing against us four our oil supplies, which WILL hurt us. The ultimate truth is that world oil supplies right now are so tight compared to demand that taking any measurable amount off the market is bound to cause prices to skyrocket. 591688[/snapback] it will in the short term because the market will automatically adjust for the shocks, but in the long term, each government will have to adjust and it will cause the prices to stabilize again. although these type of policies are not really what conservative governments believe in since they are more "laissez-faire" monetarists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pdh1 Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 What would be the reaction of the people of the middle east first, and second, the reaction of their governments to US military action against Iran? 591107[/snapback] It might make them violent, hate the U.S. and support terrorism. And the difference would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 It might make them violent, hate the U.S. and support terrorism.And the difference would be? 591744[/snapback] Excellent point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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