How I would approach the 2006 offseason

[JDG]

Yours is a ridiculous statement. Or do you think the Bills will win the Super Bowl this year or next, when players like Spikes, Fletcher, etc. still have something to offer? Take off the rose colored glasses, pal.

 

The Bills are a rebuilding team. Maybe with Spikes, Fletcher, etc., they'll go 6-10 for the next two years, instead of 3-13. Who cares? I want a Super Bowl ring, and the soonest the Bills can get one is 2007 - 2008. By then the aging veterans I want traded away will have little to offer. But the draft picks we would have gotten from trading those guys away--well, by 2007, those picks would really start to do some good!

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I don't know why I am wasting my time.

 

1) How many teams have gone from 3-13 to winning the Super Bowl? And do we really expect to duplicate them.

 

2) Do Spikes and Fletcher and everyone else over 30 really only have one more year of valuable contributions left in their career, or might they still be productive players 2, 3, or 4 years from now - when you ostensibly plan on winning the Super Bowl?

 

3) If Ralph Wilson dies during an extended period of terrible football (i.e. 3-13 terrible), how likely are the Bills to remain in Buffalo? And if the Bills win a Super Bowl in Los Angeles, will you care?

 

4) What is the highest number of great players an NFL team has added in a single year through the draft and undrafted free agents? If the Bills add to their holes by cutting Spikes, Fletcher, and every other player over 30 could the Bills seriously expect to fill all of those holes with Super Bowl-caliber talent in just one or two offseasons?

 

For the most part in the NFL, winners are *built*, they are not just flashes in the pan. There's the occasional exception like Carolina or the original Rams, but teams build up to Super Bowls, they are rarely just flashes in the pan. And only the original Rams, who caught lightning in a bottle with Kurt Warner truly went for abysmal depths to the Super Bowl in just a year like you are proposing - and the Rams had a lot of core veterans like Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk... they weren't getting rid of all their 30+ year-olds. The draft is a crap shoot dude, and just giving a player "experience" isn't always going to make them better. You don't get better by creating more holes to fill.

 

Dude, there are 32 teams in the NFL, and the Bills will need a bit of *luck* as well as skill, to be on of the 3-max teams that will win a Super Bowl in the next three years. I know you're bummed out about this season, but while cutting everybody and replacing them with undrafted free agents who look good in training camp will make you feel better - it ain't gonna make the Bills better, and when the Bills are drafting #1 overall next year, you will feel even worse - and the Bills will be even further from the Super Bowl than they are now.

 

JDG

[The Dean]

Well, only one game, I know - but in the Senior Bowl playing against a defense hobbled by "no-blitz-me" rules, and also having the advantage of the snap count and wr's knowing where they are going and db's having no idea where they are going...Cutsie-Boy looked pretty pedestrian to me....

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But, they say he looked good in "practice".

[The Dean]

I don't know why I am wasting my time.

 

JDG

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Now you know how i feel. H-Arm is officially a troll, in my book. He's says he not sure of Losman...but he certainly seems positive about a TOTALLY untested Cutler.

 

He is not he for discussion. He is on a Crusade and likes to tweak the board.

[34-78-83]

Now you know how i feel.  H-Arm is officially a troll, in my book.  He's says he not sure of Losman...but he certainly seems positive about a TOTALLY untested Cutler.

 

He is not he for discussion.  He is on a Crusade and likes to tweak the board.

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Which is why we are thankful to SDS for the ignore feature

[stuckincincy]

But, they say he looked good in "practice". 

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I'd be happy if Cutler ends being a good pro - always nice to see a kid from a smaller program have some success.

 

I'm wondering if his stock is high because he is the #3 qb name this year. Leinert is a high-pick lock, and barring surprise, seems like some team will roll the dice for Vince Young.

 

The pundits always have to have some hot-button qb to yak about - like JP a few years back. "There's No Business like Show Business..."

[dogbyte]

The problem as I see it is you are counting on those 5 players for your Oline not to get hurt because you have no depth.

[The Dean]

I'd be happy if Cutler ends being a good pro - always nice to see a kid from a smaller program have some success.

 

I'm wondering if his stock is high because he is the #3 qb name this year. Leinert is a high-pick lock, and barring surprise, seems like some team will roll the dice for Vince Young.

 

The pundits always have to have some hot-button qb to yak about - like JP a few years back. "There's No Business like Show Business..."

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Great new avatar. Leave it up for an hour or two.

 

I have nothing against Cutler (what's his nickname...Chicken? Veal?) and i like smart guys from good schools. But, his recent stock rise IS mind bogling, IMO. Especially since he did nothing in the Senior Bowl ( a game that really should be a showcase for a QB like him).

 

While you compare his rise and hype to JP, I'd compare it to that of Rivers before the draft. You say tomato, i say sauce.

[Orton's Arm]

I don't know why I am wasting my time.

 

1) How many teams have gone from 3-13 to winning the Super Bowl?  And do we really expect to duplicate them.

My plan would involve going 3-13 in 2006, being pretty good in 2007, and winning the Super Bowl in 2008. After the 2007 season was over, the Bills could sign some free agents to round out their weaker areas.

 

2) Do Spikes and Fletcher and everyone else over 30 really only have one more year of valuable contributions left in their career, or might they still be productive players 2, 3, or 4 years from now - when you ostensibly plan on winning the Super Bowl?

The real question isn't whether Spikes, for example, will retire in a year or two. It's whether he can add more to the team two - three years from now than the draft pick we could get by trading him away.

3) If Ralph Wilson dies during an extended period of terrible football (i.e. 3-13 terrible), how likely are the Bills to remain in Buffalo?  And if the Bills win a Super Bowl in Los Angeles, will you care?

I admit this is a danger of my plan, but I'd rather not go 6-10 or 7-9 for the next umpteen years to avoid this risk. Especially when there's no guarantee that doing so would affect the future location of the franchise anyway.

4) What is the highest number of great players an NFL team has added in a single year through the draft and undrafted free agents?    If the Bills add to their holes by cutting Spikes, Fletcher, and every other player over 30 could the Bills seriously expect to fill all of those holes with Super Bowl-caliber talent in just one or two offseasons?

I consider the positions filled by Fletcher et al to be holes already, because those players will be on their last legs when it comes time for the Bills to get serious.

For the most part in the NFL, winners are *built*, they are not just flashes in the pan. 

Agreed. But I'd add to that: built primarily through the draft. As of now, TD has drafted only six proven starters: McGee, Clements, Crowell, Schobel, McGahee, and Evans. This team doesn't have a much better core of drafted players than an expansion franchise. First the Bills need to build up their core of proven, drafted players. To do that, they need more draft picks. Once the core of young players is built, then you add free agents who maybe only have two or three years left.

[Orton's Arm]

Now you know how i feel.  H-Arm is officially a troll, in my book. 

Then your book is worthless. But I could have told you that already.

He's says he not sure of Losman...but he certainly seems positive about a TOTALLY untested Cutler.

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Not true. I don't know enough about Cutler to be sure the Bills should draft him. I've written that the Bills should take a long, hard look at Cutler. If they conclude he's the real deal, then they should draft him.

[Like A Mofo]

He is on a Crusade and likes to tweak the board.

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Makes me think of the days of Spiked Lemonade

[BB2004]

The first thing I do is not panic because we took a step backwards breaking in a rookie QB and dealing with a bunch of injuries.

The Bills were showing steady improvement until last season and I stay with Donahoe and Modrak as the chiefs for at least one more season. Mularkey, Wyche and Krumrie are also still on the payroll. The only moves I make off the field are the changing out of both co-ordinators. The OC and DC have become so intrumental to success in this cap-driven era of parity that we just can't afford to have two guys with so little experience having such a big hand in what happens on Sundays. TClements and Gray are both gone in exchange for two guys who've been around the block and can call games from more of a position of strength.

 

My first personell move is to break out the checkbook and sign LeCharles Bentley to a contract that he simply can't refuse. Bennie Anderson is out of here and a combination of Gandy/Peters/Preston plays off Bentley's left hip and shores up that side of the OLine. The right side stays the same for now but both Vilarial and particularly BigMike are made very aware that this is it for them; if they're not working hard in the offseason don't bother showing up for camp.

My only other pre-draft move on the Offense is to give Moulds his gold watch and tell him thanks for the decade. Nobody quits on this team and comes back for more. The first day of FA I'm on the phone with Joe Jurevicius to see if we can't get him in here to replace Moulds and serve as a possession guy, a red zone weapon and an occasional downfield jumpball threat.

On defense, the only big move I make before the draft is to see if I can bring Grady Jackson or Ryan Pickett in here. Whichever one I get will look real good next to The Keg. I also adress Nate Clements according to the kind of Defense Jauron wants to run. If it's that chickenspit JGray softzone garbage, I franchise Nate and acution him off ot the highest bidder because great corners are all but useless in that system. If Jauron wants to actually play some football with his secondary, I franchise Nate and do whatever I can to sign him to a longer deal that makes sense for both him and the Bills.

With our major weaknesses shored up to some degree, we now have some flexibility in the draft so we don't have to pigeonhole ourselves into reaching for less talented players just because we have needs which desperately need filled; we still have needs but they aren't so desperate and we are somewhat able to draft from a postion of strength.

 

On draft day I try to trade down about 4-7 slots and pick up an extra first day pick. That would give us 5 day one picks (unless we get an unexpected bonus for the losses of PhatPat and Jennings) and put our first pick in the 12-15 range where we should still be able to nab a real player like Ngata, Michael Huff or Tamba Hali. Regardless of whether we can pull off a trade-down, I fully intend to spend at least half of my Day1 picks in the trenches; one on offense and one on defense. I'd like to spend another one on a safety as both our guys are showing their age; if we don't end up with Huff, I really like Greg Blue and think he and RBaker might be a good duo down the road.

At the end of Day1 we've added a DLineman, one or two OLineman, a tough young safety and a BPA to an already solid roster. On Day2 I go out looking for depth at LB (that will also help on ST's), depth at OL and maybe some more depth at DT or WR, depending on how we plan to approach the remainder of the offseason.

 

I think this would put us in position to challenge for the AFCEast this year with a flexible roster that has some depth to it and a nice combination of youth and experience. The addition of two experienced co-ordinators would reap dividends on Sundays and would have taken a lot of pressure off Mularkey and allowed him to be a better HC than he'd been so far. Aside from the two coaching changes(which I hoped would be long term hires), the Bills would have managed to maintain some continuity and stability, which seem to be becoming even more important the further we get into the cap era. And at the same time we make significant improvements to the roster with minimal losses while still maintaining a relatively sensible cap structure.

 

Thoughts?

Flames?

Funny personal insults?

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Simon-

I agree with half of your aprroach. While I like what you've done with the draft and Nate Clements for the most part, I think getting new coaches here and keeping some true veterans on this team is better than some of the moves you've made. While the board might be split on Moulds, I am for him staying due to the fact that Lee Evans hasn't established himself as a #1 guy yet. With Moulds, at least that will take the pressure off of Evans a little bit in 2006. Second, Mike Williams is going to have to take the maximum paycut just to stay with us. If that happens, then put him in at RT and Chris Villarial can play RG. I agree with your Bentley signing, but if we don't get him then we need to consider Preston coming in there and starting at C. LT needs to be upgraded with the first or second pick in the draft. I guess Gandy would win by default then at LG, but I would rather have him as our primary backup tackle.

The upper management and coaching needed to go and this was the appropriate time. While it was fine to have a year of rebuilding in 2001, 2002 brought more optimism. 2003 started well, but ended badly and we know what happened in 2004 with the 9-7 record. 2005 was almost like 2001, but we had more veterans on our team this past year. Bottom line was, TD and MM had an opportunity to turn it around and didn't get it done. When that happens in this business,as you know, you are going to get fired. Ralph made what I think was the appropriate decision.

[The Dean]

Makes me think of the days of Spiked Lemonade 

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Same guy in my (worthless ) book.

[Orton's Arm]

my (worthless  ) book.

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At least he admits it.

[JDG]

The real question isn't whether Spikes, for example, will retire in a year or two. It's whether he can add more to the team two - three years from now than the draft pick we could get by trading him away.

 

I consider the positions filled by Fletcher et al to be holes already, because those players will be on their last legs when it comes time for the Bills to get serious.

 

Fletcher and Spikes will not exactly "be on their last legs" in three years.

 

And Spikes can *definitely* add more to the team in two years than a draft pick because Spikes is *proven.* Even if you succeed in getting a 3rd or even a 2nd rounder for Spikes and Fletcher, lots of players drafted in those rounds simply never pan out. You could very easily end up with the next Gabe Northern or Travares Tillman. You can't just presume that players will get better with experience, sometimes not-very-good players get experience and remain just-not-very-good.

 

You're right about the Bills needing to draft better and build around the draft - two failures of the TD era, but I'm a firm believer that a little bit of experience can go a long ways in that department. Moreover, the Bills need to build a culture of winning, and cutting people willy-nilly is no way to go about that.

 

JDG

[Orton's Arm]

Fletcher and Spikes will not exactly "be on their last legs" in three years. 

In three years, Fletcher will be 34, and Spikes will be 32. I could see Spikes having some use in three years, assuming he's able to come back 100% from his injury.

 

You're right to say there's a risk with draft picks, and that sometimes you end up with the next Russell Copeland. But the way I figure it, the more points you're able to throw at players on draft day, the more good players you're likely to end up with. If your success rate for 2nd round picks is 33%, then you have to figure that if you have three 2nd round picks, you're likely to end up with one good player.

 

I do think there's something to be said for the culture of winning. A player that gives everything he has certainly contributes to that. It would be hard to part with Spikes in particular for that reason. It would all depend on how good the draft pick being offered was.

[JinVA]

Same guy in my (worthless  ) book.

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[Rico]

I'm not real big on stastical analysis in football

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That's probably a big reason why your takes are better than others.

 

Stats are made to be spun & twisted, the only one that matters is W's vs L's.