Talking about Losman's accuracy

[Orton's Arm]

I disagree with you and the Arm that, based on what we've seen, Holcomb is unlikely to be our guy.

 

I don't know that he will...but, I've seen nothing to show me he won't. 

584956[/snapback]

I think you wrote Holcomb when you meant Losman. Anyway, my concern with Losman isn't his athletic ability, it's that he just isn't a good pocket passer.

 

You say that he's more of a proven commodity than a guy like Rivers. I disagree. Rivers showed enough in college to be selected fourth overall, and to be part of the consensus big three. Losman was in the Rivers category in TD's mind, but not in the minds of most NFL experts.

 

But, you say, Losman has proven more than Rivers since then, and you mention Losman taking the benching well as an example. But Rivers has been benched his whole career, and he hasn't turned into a cancer or anything either.

 

What about what the players have proven on the field? It's not obvious to me that either Rivers or Losman has proven anything in the NFL. Unless you call Losman's career passer rating of 65 proof of something.

[The Dean]

I think you wrote Holcomb when you meant Losman. Anyway, my concern with Losman isn't his athletic ability, it's that he just isn't a good pocket passer.

 

You say that he's more of a proven commodity than a guy like Rivers. I disagree. Rivers showed enough in college to be selected fourth overall, and to be part of the consensus big three. Losman was in the Rivers category in TD's mind, but not in the minds of most NFL experts.

 

But, you say, Losman has proven more than Rivers since then, and you mention Losman taking the benching well as an example. But Rivers has been benched his whole career, and he hasn't turned into a cancer or anything either.

 

What about what the players have proven on the field? It's not obvious to me that either Rivers or Losman has proven anything in the NFL. Unless you call Losman's career passer rating of 65 proof of something.

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Yes, i mistyped...thank you.

 

Actually Rivers has shown nothing in the NFL...that was my point. As we know, good college QBs often sink quickly in the NFL. That is, it quickly becomes clear they are not NFL ready/quality. While Rives hasn't shown he isn't...there is no reason to think he is.

 

While many counted Rivers in the top college prospects (not me, mind you) many also questioned his delivery. It was always a question whether his delivery would pass NFL muster. To that I say we have no evidence either way. He hasn't turned into a cancer...that's true. He also hasn't had to face failure in a game. He also hasn't been benched after starting and asked to start again. Those are questions that JP has answered successfully...at least to a degree. To make the judgement that he doesn't have it based on that rating in those few games, given the Bills situation...well, my guess is, using the same standard, you'd have written off some of the great QBs to play the game.

[Orton's Arm]

Yes, i mistyped...thank you.

 

Actually Rivers has shown nothing in the NFL...that was my point.  As we know, good college QBs often sink quickly in the NFL.  That is, it quickly becomes clear they are not NFL ready/quality.  While Rives hasn't shown he isn't...there is no reason to think he is.

 

While many counted Rivers in the top college prospects (not me, mind you) many also questioned his delivery.  It was always a question whether his delivery would pass NFL muster.  To that I say we have no evidence either way.  He hasn't turned into a cancer...that's true.  He also hasn't had to face failure in a game.  He also hasn't been benched after starting and asked to start again.  Those are questions that JP has answered successfully...at least to a degree.  To make the judgement that he doesn't have it based on that rating in those few games, given the Bills situation...well, my guess is, using the same standard, you'd have written off some of the great QBs to play the game.

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I'm not writing JP off because of his rating. On the other hand, his rating has done nothing to dispel the questions about his accuracy that existed before the draft. Drafting Losman was a judgement call made by TD. In making this call, TD went against the majority. That worries me. The last time TD went against the majority on a QB issue, he was trading away a first round pick for Bledsoe when nobody else thought Bledsoe was worth that high a price. The time before that, it was when he was phasing Neil O'Donnell out of his plans to make room for the mobile Kordell Stewart.

 

You say that Green Bay was also interested in Losman. But I'm pretty sure its general manager at the time was Mike Sherman; who was later relieved of GM duties.

[stinky finger]

I read a lot about KH not having the ability to take Bflo to the playoffs.  Well, neither did Trent Dilfer when he was in Baltimore.

 

I read alot about how bad the OL is.  Don't get me wrong, there is room for A LOT of improvement.  But it kills me how people want to blame JPs performance on the OL.  Despite taking the same number of attempts as KH (two fewer, actually), JP -- the mobile QB with "escapability" and a super-quick release -- took 50% more sacks than the rather immobile KH.  Same offensive scheme.  Same guys running it.  Hmm...

 

Yes, the OL can make a QB look better.  But a QB can also make an OL look better too.  And more than just in pass protection.  Opponents had no fear of JP Losman beating them, which led to them stacking the line to stop the run.  Again, the QB's performance didn't exactly help the line much. 

 

Just an observation. thought, and opine...

584902[/snapback]

Good post. We've all heard the Favre comparisons. When I think Losman, I think David Carr. Talent, but no QB instinct. Hell, he has that bad Carr hairdo going too. Not that that matters.....

[Lurker]

JP spent too much of last season watching the pass rush (with good reason) and not looking at his receivers or the d-backs downfield. Give him some protection and I think the accuracy thing goes away.

[krazykat]

2. Speaking of the new regime, I've really come to like Jauron. I'm a results-oriented kind of guy who doesn't look too favorably on his bottom-line record in Chicago, but the reality is that all people in all walks of life deserve a second chance provided that they show some promise of having learned from their rookie mistakes. And I have a lot of confidence that Marv saw DJ as a smart, humble guy who is plenty capable of learning from his original failures. So DJ deserves at least 1 full season before I/we consider running him out of town like I/we did to Drew and TD .

 

OK, I'm finally done. All comments and criticism welcome.

583499[/snapback]

People always say stuff like this after someone like Jauron gets hired. Mularkey and others. What if he didn't learn from his rookie mistakes? What if he kept trying the same things over and over again while he was there with no ability (or desire) to change anything? Did anyone ever think that might have been the problem.

 

Second chances! How nice. I can't imagine anyone being in favor of a second chance, but why does it have to be here in Buffalo?

 

Did it ever occur to you that he could get worse too. I mean it's not like we have much talent here. We have no lines. Villarrial was much younger in Chicago and he'll be into his 30s next year and he's one of our "top" linemen.

 

Who cares about smart and humble. If he's that smart, then explain his stint in Chicago. Who cares about humble. We're gonna have the most humble and best charactered coaching staff in history maybe, but who cares if we can't win.

[krazykat]

make that "not being in favor of a second chance"

[Orton's Arm]

JP spent too much of last season watching the pass rush (with good reason) and not looking at his receivers or the d-backs downfield.  Give him some protection and I think the accuracy thing goes away.

585482[/snapback]

Had we given Rob Johnson some pass protection, maybe the sack and injury issues would have gone away.

[Ramius]

I read a lot about KH not having the ability to take Bflo to the playoffs.  Well, neither did Trent Dilfer when he was in Baltimore.

 

I read alot about how bad the OL is.  Don't get me wrong, there is room for A LOT of improvement.  But it kills me how people want to blame JPs performance on the OL.  Despite taking the same number of attempts as KH (two fewer, actually), JP -- the mobile QB with "escapability" and a super-quick release -- took 50% more sacks than the rather immobile KH.  Same offensive scheme.  Same guys running it.  Hmm...

 

Yes, the OL can make a QB look better.  But a QB can also make an OL look better too.  And more than just in pass protection.  Opponents had no fear of JP Losman beating them, which led to them stacking the line to stop the run.  Again, the QB's performance didn't exactly help the line much. 

 

Just an observation. thought, and opine...

584902[/snapback]

 

WOW. So now its JP's fault that the o-line was bad.

 

Starting holcrap and his noodle arm next season will allow us to dink and dunk our record to a ceiling of 9-7, at worst 7-9.

 

Starting losman and his potential will allow us to potentially go 11-5 if he turns out good, and 5-11 if he completely busts. frankly, i'd go for the bigger risk than wasting another year with holcrap just so we can hope to sneak in and lose in the first round of the playoffs.

[Campy]

WOW. So now its JP's fault that the o-line was bad. 

That's not what I said. Hell, I didn't even infer that. Re-read my post.

 

Starting holcrap and his noodle arm next season will allow us to dink and dunk our record to a ceiling of 9-7, at worst 7-9.

Well thought out, cleverly written. May or may not be accurate. There have been many "dink and dunk" passers that have done very well. There's even one in the AFC East that has a fair amount of jewelry...

 

Starting losman and his potential will allow us to potentially go 11-5 if he turns out good, and 5-11 if he completely busts. frankly, i'd go for the bigger risk than wasting another year with holcrap just so we can hope to sneak in and lose in the first round of the playoffs.

585633[/snapback]

Yup. JP's really shown "potential." Regretably, he peaked in week 1.

 

And "holcrap?" C'mon man, you're a bright kid. You can do better than that.

[Lurker]

But it kills me how people want to blame JPs performance on the OL.  Despite taking the same number of attempts as KH (two fewer, actually), JP -- the mobile QB with "escapability" and a super-quick release -- took 50% more sacks than the rather immobile KH.  Same offensive scheme.  Same guys running it.  Hmm...

584902[/snapback]

 

KH learned a long time ago to keep his eyes downfield, no matter what. And to make the safe but boring play if that's all there is. It's what an NFL quarterback HAS to do to have any kind of success.

 

I still contend JP was having growing pains adjusting to the speed of the NFL and was watching the pass rush too much last year. Whenever he'd get pressure, he'd spin out and move all around because he had confidence in his scrambling ability (rather than sliding a few feet/stepping up in the pocket, or just standing in there and taking the hit to make a play).

 

Unfortunetely, there's a big difference between being able to out run guys in college and the NFL. And all that moving around may have actually hurt the O-line play by not letting the linemen get a better read on how to protect him in the pocket.

 

If JP can get more comfortable in the pocket, he'll start to get a better feel for reading defenses. He's certainly got more tools than KH and should be able to move ahead of him on the depth chart next year. But he's got to start using his head more rather than relying solely on his physical tools. I hope that Fairchild can do a better job of calming him down than MM/SW did.

[Ramius]

Yup.  JP's really shown "potential."  Regretably, he peaked in week 1.

585666[/snapback]

 

Did you not watch him improve over the last 4 games he played (with the exception of NE, that game was a cluster!@#$) That was a different JP over the last 4 games than his first 4 games. He made some definite strides.

 

Holcomb has been in the league 9 years, and aside from 2 big statistical games against pitt and cincy, hes done nothg, except compile a sub .500 record. JP's young and can learn. Holcomb has hit his ceiling and what you see is what you get. Holcomb is taking us nowhere next year, and the bills are only going to be hurting themselves by not playing JP.

 

The problem, and its been stated before, is that the bills want to re-build a great team, but are unwilling to sacrafice the "win now" attitude. I want to see us become a legit conender, not jump limp into the playoffs just for the sake of "making the playoffs"

 

Frankly, i'd rather go 5-11, 8-8, 11-5 the next 3 years under JP than go 8-8, 9-7, 9-7 with holcomb, even if 1 of those 9-7's got us into the playoffs.

 

Sure we can mortgage our future for 1 playoff run, and that would satisfy the hot pocket crowd. What they fail to see is that afterwards, then we are going to fall back to where we are now.

[Campy]

If JP can get more comfortable in the pocket, he'll start to get a better feel for reading defenses.

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No arguing that JP's physical attributes are superior to those of Holcomb's.

 

Here's my biggest concern with JP: To my eyes, he's much much better on the move. He seems to do a better job of finding open receivers - even when he's running for his life - than he does when he's had time in the pocket. If a QB can read while he's on the move, wouldn't it be even easier when he's in the pocket?

 

For real NFL QBs, the answer is yes. For extremely gifted athletes who happen to be QBs, they all seem to be unable to throw consistently well from the pocket. Yeah, they can make a play happen with their feet, and that's great. But there comes a time when an NFL QB MUST set up in the pocket and deliver. IMO, that's something JP hasn't done since his rather pedestrian performance in week 1.

 

I've said it before, and I'll probably say it again: I hope I'm wrong. I really do. But I'm afraid I'm not, and that would stink for all of us.

[ezbills]

Yup.  JP's really shown "potential."  Regretably, he peaked in week 1.

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Actually, Losman did quite a bit better overall in his 5 November/early December appearances than he did in Weeks 1-4.

 

Take a look at J.P.'s passer ratings:

 

Weeks 1-4: 89.9 (HOU), 51.6 (TB), 33.8 (ATL), 34.0 (NO)

Weeks 10-14: 124.2 (KC), 65.5 (SD), 62.0 (CAR), 102.1 (MIA), 33.6 (NE)

 

His best 2 games were later in the year, while 2 of his 3 worst starts were early on.

 

J.P's comp. % was under 50% in 3 of his 1st 4 starts, but it was at or over 50% in 4 of his final 5 starts.

 

He threw just 1 TD in his 1st 4 games, but had 7 TD passes in his final 5 games.

 

J.P. also showed more patience as the season went on: 19 rushes in the 1st 4 games vs. 12 rushes in the final 5.

 

The Bills need to give J.P. an entire season of play to see if he can continue to improve, which I'm confident he will.

[Campy]

Frankly, i'd rather go 5-11, 8-8, 11-5 the next 3 years under JP than go 8-8, 9-7, 9-7 with holcomb, even if 1 of those 9-7's got us into the playoffs.

585678[/snapback]

Who wouldn't?

 

If you had a crystal ball and could show everybody that's what would happen, then I'd be all for JP. But you don't, and since Nostradamus is dead, I'll take a stab: We could go 12-4, 8-8, 10-6 with 2 playoff appearances with Holcomb or go 4-12, 8-8, 6-10, with Losman.

 

Making up numbers can be fun, but it doesn't really do much to advance JP's case.

[Lurker]

No arguing that JP's physical attributes are superior to those of Holcomb's.

 

Here's my biggest concern with JP:  To my eyes, he's much much better on the move.  He seems to do a better job of finding open receivers - even when he's running for his life - than he does when he's had time in the pocket.  If a QB can read while he's on the move, wouldn't it be even easier when he's in the pocket? 

585685[/snapback]

 

IMO, JP just falls back on what worked for him at Tulane, when things start to break down in pass pro. He WAS able to have success in college doing that, but as you say, that's not how the NFL works. Defensive players have too much speed and DC's are able to take advantage of player tendancies so much better than at the college level, where it's all about physical mismatches.

 

I think JP can learn how to harness his physical skills, but it may take a different coaching approch than Wyche's emphasis on watching film. Maybe more physical reps/on-the-field work, since JP seems wired more on the physical side than the cerebral side of the QB equation.

[Campy]

The Bills need to give J.P. an entire season of play to see if he can continue to improve, which I'm confident he will.

585691[/snapback]

Must be the sight of him throwing the ball to a wide open CB in the endzone at Miami is etched in my mind's eye. But woo hoo - his QB rating was 102.1!

 

I guess we'll just have to wait and see and if he can beat Holcomb out of the starting job come this summer. All of this debate in January is moot.

[The Dean]

Actually, Losman did quite a bit better overall in his 5 November/early December  appearances than he did in Weeks 1-4.

 

Take a look at J.P.'s passer ratings:

 

Weeks 1-4: 89.9 (HOU), 51.6 (TB), 33.8 (ATL), 34.0 (NO)

Weeks 10-14: 124.2 (KC), 65.5 (SD), 62.0 (CAR), 102.1 (MIA), 33.6 (NE)

 

His best 2 games were later in the year, while 2 of his 3 worst starts were early on.

 

J.P's comp. % was under 50% in 3 of his 1st 4 starts, but it was at or over 50% in 4 of his final 5 starts.

 

He threw just 1 TD in his 1st 4 games, but had 7 TD passes in his final 5 games.

 

J.P. also showed more patience as the season went on: 19 rushes in the 1st 4 games vs. 12 rushes in the final 5.

 

The Bills need to give J.P. an entire season of play to see if he can continue to improve, which I'm confident he will.

585691[/snapback]

 

 

Don't confuse the "JP is a Bust" crowd with facts.

[Campy]

Don't confuse the "JP is a Bust" crowd with facts.

585739[/snapback]

You're implying that I said JP is a bust. I never have. I've only said that based upon what I saw last season, JP is the 2nd best QB on the team.

 

Call me crazy, but I'm of the belief that the best players start. If your philosophy is different, that's cool by me.

[The Dean]

You're implying that I said JP is a bust.  I never have.  I've only said that based upon what I saw last season, JP is the 2nd best QB on the team. 

 

Call me crazy, but I'm of the belief that the best players start.  If your philosophy is different, that's cool by me.

585757[/snapback]

 

I didn't say you called JP is a bust. However, by your response, you seem to be outing yourself.