eball Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 Thank you... of course the ball washers don't remember such details - they expect someone to come in off the street, with no experience, and expect them to wheel and deal like Monty Hall. 583099[/snapback] I know you already know this, but there is certainly a difference between being a "ball washer" and having a legitimate discussion about possible draft day trade scenarios. Tell me, is it more realistic to make a blanket statement that Marv is absolutely not capable of making and draft day moves simply because he has not been a GM before?
bobblehead Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 I would love to drop 9 or so slots in the draft not going to happen tho. 583058[/snapback] I would think that if anyone wanted to trade up, they would want to be further up than Buffalo. I'm concerned about Levy/Modrak being able to make complicated deals, too. Just because I haven't seen them do one together yet. Having said that, I do not think this is the year for a complicated deal, anyway, if Buffalo does anything, it should involve getting more picks, not giving away any.
SDS Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 I know you already know this, but there is certainly a difference between being a "ball washer" and having a legitimate discussion about possible draft day trade scenarios. Tell me, is it more realistic to make a blanket statement that Marv is absolutely not capable of making and draft day moves simply because he has not been a GM before? 583138[/snapback] I think given his past history with this team and his lack of experience, it is more likely that we will stay put. I was just poiinting this out to those who want to wheel and deal like TD was still in control. Of course, ANYONE is capable of making a draft day trade. However, if you don't know what you are doing then you can get B word slapped real quick. I'm giving Marv credit for probably knowing that he may not be able to pull off a fair deal in 15minutes and that the safe play is just to draft at our current locations.
Ozymandius Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 i wouldn't speak so soon.........either of those guys could fall to our spot....... 583055[/snapback] Anything COULD happen, true. But what are the odds that our dream LT or our dream LDE would fall to us at pick 8? Pretty low, IMO. As Simon pointed out, only the Buffalo Bills could be "lucky" enough to pick eight in a draft with seven blue chippers. It sucks to be us sometimes.
stuckincincy Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 The perfect draft position would have us in position to draft either Mario Williams or Da Brick. As it stands right now, we have a shot at neither. Damn you Cincinnati. 582893[/snapback] Shouldn't have beaten CIN in '03...coulda had Ben R.
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 The question is - how is going to pull the trigger on those trades? It takes balls to make big trades like that and if you don't know what you are doing you will get taken to the cleaners. 582710[/snapback] come on, scott. i agree that he's lacking in the experience dept, but this stuff is hardly rocket science. in fact, it's slightly less complicated than 4th grade arithmetic.
Mickey Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 After watching the senior bowl practice and listening to Kiper, Jay Cutler could end up shooting up draft boards. If Oakland doesn't take Cutler with the 6th pick he'll probably go #9 to the Lions. Since we have the 8th pick I would expect teams to try and jump ahead of the Lions to get Cutler. Teams that would be interested in trading up would definitely be Miami, Dallas, and maybe Cleveland. We could swap 1sts with a team like Dallas or Miami and pick up that teams 2nd round pick this year and 1st next year, just like the Losman trade basically. If Cutler keeps impressing it's only going to help our team big time. 582706[/snapback] I thought we got Dallas' first and they got an extra second and our first the following year. I don't think we "swapped firsts", we had taken Evans with our first already that year. If you look at the picks we had over that two year period and the picks Dallas had, all they really gained was a second round pick. In that 2 year period, if not for the trade, we would have had 2 first round and 2 second round picks, same with Dallas. After the trade, we got 2 first round picks (Evans and JP) but only one second (Roscoe). Dallas had two first round picks and 3 second round picks. That is why I don't think any team would make a trade that steep, we certainly didn't. All we did was advance one year's first pick by a year and it cost us a second rounder. We did not lose a first round pick to get JP, we used a first round pick to select him.
eball Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 come on, scott. i agree that he's lacking in the experience dept, but this stuff is hardly rocket science. in fact, it's slightly less complicated than 4th grade arithmetic. 583176[/snapback] Thanks for saying that, Dave. While growing up I had this misconception that professional coaches and GMs must be some sort of masterminds...probably because of the glorified status given to professional sports. And then, as adulthood arrived, it finally hit me -- a lot of these guys are idiots. This is absolutely NOT rocket science. Marv certainly has the brainpower to contemplate a complicated trade, and the analytical skills to weigh the risks and rewards. I just don't buy that he won't make a deal because he's a "newbie" to the position.
bobblehead Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 Thanks for saying that, Dave. While growing up I had this misconception that professional coaches and GMs must be some sort of masterminds...probably because of the glorified status given to professional sports. And then, as adulthood arrived, it finally hit me -- a lot of these guys are idiots. This is absolutely NOT rocket science. Marv certainly has the brainpower to contemplate a complicated trade, and the analytical skills to weigh the risks and rewards. I just don't buy that he won't make a deal because he's a "newbie" to the position. 583194[/snapback] I would say that trading has more to do with salesmanship and networking than analytical skill.
eball Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 I would say that trading has more to do with salesmanship and networking than analytical skill. 583198[/snapback] Both of which are qualities possessed by our new GM.
d_wag Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 Anything COULD happen, true. But what are the odds that our dream LT or our dream LDE would fall to us at pick 8? Pretty low, IMO. As Simon pointed out, only the Buffalo Bills could be "lucky" enough to pick eight in a draft with seven blue chippers. It sucks to be us sometimes. 583161[/snapback] about the same odds that terrell suggs would drop to #10 in '03? or around the same that big ben would drop to #11 in '04? or around the same that alex barron would fall to #19 and aaron rodgers to #24 last year? every draft has guys shooting up the board, be it during the combine, individual workouts, or even guys going well before they were expected to (i.e. levi jones and dwight freeney a few years back)........when guys go up, some guys have to go down.......
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 I think given his past history with this team and his lack of experience, it is more likely that we will stay put. I was just poiinting this out to those who want to wheel and deal like TD was still in control. Of course, ANYONE is capable of making a draft day trade. However, if you don't know what you are doing then you can get B word slapped real quick. I'm giving Marv credit for probably knowing that he may not be able to pull off a fair deal in 15minutes and that the safe play is just to draft at our current locations. Fortunately it's not so hard anymore, thanks to Jimmy Johnson's draft pick value chart. If a team is interested in moving up, Marv just has to take a look at where they're trading up from, subtract those points from the #8 position, and see what is closest on the draft pick value chart, may adding a premium.
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 And also, if Marv wants to move up, again it's a matter of seeing what position, looking at the points, and finding the extra draft pick. Either they take it or they don't. So there's really not much fleecing that can go on and Marv always has the option to change his mind, as do they.
stuckincincy Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 And also, if Marv wants to move up, again it's a matter of seeing what position, looking at the points, and finding the extra draft pick. Either they take it or they don't. So there's really not much fleecing that can go on and Marv always has the option to change his mind, as do they. 583230[/snapback] Yep - I don't see any reason for Levy et al not making a trade if the price is right. As mentioned many times, their spot is a sweet one - attractive to teams that are already well-stocked and need to shore up a particular position or can afford the luxury of a so-called "best athlete available". And such clubs, usually drafting late, pony up a couple of picks and perhaps a top pick the next year. I really wasn't in favor of his hiring, but Marv is certainly not dumb. I expect the Bill's draft to be a good one.
NEBRASKABILLSFAN Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 I'll tell you something else...I think that Lendale White's draft stock will soar before April rolls around. People might be looking at him the same way they saw Carnell Williams this year. Reggie Bush may be the flashier of the duo, but White is the workhorse. We could work out a trade-down with a team that's desperate to get him. 582719[/snapback] your forgetting a wr....and gradowski will be gone in the early 2nd round.
2003Contenders Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 If you're right that there are 7 blue chippers in this draft, then I say our odds are pretty good to land one of them at 8, since one of the teams picking 1-7 is likely to do something really unorthodox (i.e. stupid). If all else fails, it wouldn't be the end of the world (to me) if we took Cutler. I saw on the NFL Network the other night where Mayock had him ranked AHEAD of Leinart.
Dawgg Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 I think that is more attributable to John Butler than Marv. And John Butler showed in his very first move in San Diego that he's not afraid to make draft day trades, trading the #1 overall for the #5 and somem extra picks and players. And keep in mind for the great majority of Marv's tenure, the Bills were picking at the end of the draft -- hardly a place teams are clamoring to trade up for. I think (and hope!) Marv will have some help from Modrak in this regard. Unless a can't miss prospect shows up, I think we should trade down, just like Donahoe wisely did in his first draft here. This team cannot afford another high first round bust. We need an infusion of productive players. Thank you... of course the ball washers don't remember such details - they expect someone to come in off the street, with no experience, and expect them to wheel and deal like Monty Hall. 583099[/snapback]
obie_wan Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 Thanks for saying that, Dave. While growing up I had this misconception that professional coaches and GMs must be some sort of masterminds...probably because of the glorified status given to professional sports. And then, as adulthood arrived, it finally hit me -- a lot of these guys are idiots. This is absolutely NOT rocket science. Marv certainly has the brainpower to contemplate a complicated trade, and the analytical skills to weigh the risks and rewards. I just don't buy that he won't make a deal because he's a "newbie" to the position. 583194[/snapback] He won't make a trade- not because he's new as a GM, but because his past history clearly indicates that he doesn't believe in moving around on draft day and messing up his draft board. People forget that Marv was VP of Football Operations and Butler reported to him.
eball Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 He won't make a trade- not because he's new as a GM, but because his past history clearly indicates that he doesn't believe in moving around on draft day and messing up his draft board. People forget that Marv was VP of Football Operations and Butler reported to him. 583355[/snapback] I don't believe there is any documented evidence that what you've stated as fact is actually Marv's philosophy. The Bills were rarely in an advantageous draft position during Marv's previous tenure. Everyone wants to believe that they "know" how Marv the GM is going to act -- it's fairly amusing.
KOKBILLS Posted January 25, 2006 Posted January 25, 2006 The Bills were rarely in an advantageous draft position during Marv's previous tenure. 583387[/snapback] I think that is the overriding fact in this arguement...Exactly how many times did the Bills have the opportunity to Trade Out of the Top 10 during Marv's previous tenure? How can it be compared? Anyway...I think the complexity of the Trade Down scenerio is being a bit overblown here...I mean...Is there an NFL Team who does not at least have a Copy of the Value Chart by now?? I'm sure Marv can borrow Modrak's copy if need be...I'll tell you what, Marv can call me and I'll give it to him...I think it's 1400 for the 8th Pick in the 1st Round... If the Bills see Cutler fall to #8...and they don't want him, It's pretty much a given any Team is going to have to come with a 1st and 2nd in 2006, and a little more to get up there...This is not Rocket Science...
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