dave mcbride Posted September 22, 2004 Posted September 22, 2004 Many feel that the most important stat to measure a qb's performance is yards per pass attempt. I've cobbled together a bunch of stats for a lot of qbs, starting with a comparison of Kelly’s 11-year nfl career and Bledsoe’s 11 years so far in the league. Following this is a list of the ypa stats for qb luminaries of the past 15 years or so. I’m now concluding that Bledsoe may well be the most overrated qb of all time (especially considering the plethora of good receivers he’s played with - Glenn, Coates, Moulds, Price). Kelly – yards per pass attempt - career 1986 7.5 1987 6.7 1988 7.5 1989 8.0 1990 8.2 1991 8.1 1992 7.5 1993 7.2 1994 7.0 1995 6.8 1996 7.4 lifetime – 7.4 Bledsoe – yards per pass attempt - career 1993 5.8 1994 6.6 1995 5.5 1996 6.6 1997 7.1 1998 7.6 1999 6.6 2000 6.2 2001 6.1 2002 7.1 2003 6.1 lifetime – 6.6 Also, here are some other lifetime stats of qb luminaries: Steve Young– 8.0 Brett Favre – 7.1 Payton Manning – 7.4 Troy Aikman – 7.0 John Elway – 7.1 Joe Montana 7.5 Vinnie Testaverde – 6.9 Kurt Warner – 8.6 Warren Moon – 7.2 Dan Marino – 7.3 Steve McNair – 7.1 Chris Chandler – 7.1 Randall Cunningham – 7.0 Jeff Hostetler – 7.0 Phil Simms – 7.0 Boomer Esiason – 7.3 Doug Flutie – 6.9 Jim Everett – 7.1 Dave Krieg – 7.2 Bernie Kosar – 6.9 Rich Gannon – 6.8 Jeff George – 7.0 Mark Brunell – 7.1 Jeff Garcia – 7.0 Daunte Culpepper – 7.5 Donovan McNabb has a 6.2 ypa lifetime average, but he has obvious attributes that the statue does not possess – 2239 rushing yards for a 6.4 ypc average in 5 seasons and 17 rushing tds. Plus he’s not easy at all to sack. Indeed, the qb most similar to Bledsoe is Kerry Collins, who has a 6.6 lifetime ypa number. He’s a very similar player as well.
dave mcbride Posted September 22, 2004 Author Posted September 22, 2004 a quick addendum: Bledsoe's yards per pass attempt percentage in 7 playoff games: a woeful 5.3, with 6 tds, 12 ints, and a 49.9 completion rate. Kelly’s is 7.1 in 17 games.
stuckincincy Posted September 22, 2004 Posted September 22, 2004 I'll bet that was a bit of work to compile that! YPC does factor in, but it's hard to gage what part the capabilities of the receivers contributed. A bit back, I looked at the percentage of +40 completions for Bledsoe, Farve and Testaverde. - 3 QB's with over 10 years in the league with many starts. They were comparable, at an average of 2.5% ot their attempts. The problem, was - were these actually passes that went 40-plus yards in the air, or were some of then 6-yard pitches that went for a bunch of yards? I think such info is known to NFL teams, but not to you or me. I think with YPC figures, you would somehow have to factor in a team's offensive philosophy - the '80's Houston run 'n shoot, as an example.
dave mcbride Posted September 22, 2004 Author Posted September 22, 2004 I'll bet that was a bit of work to compile that! YPC does factor in, but it's hard to gage what part the capabilities of the receivers contributed. A bit back, I looked at the percentage of +40 completions for Bledsoe, Farve and Testaverde. - 3 QB's with over 10 years in the league with many starts. They were comparable, at an average of 2.5% ot their attempts. The problem, was - were these actually passes that went 40-plus yards in the air, or were some of then 6-yard pitches that went for a bunch of yards? I think such info is known to NFL teams, but not to you or me. I think with YPC figures, you would somehow have to factor in a team's offensive philosophy - the '80's Houston run 'n shoot, as an example. 42110[/snapback] good points, but i'm guessing it averages out in the end. in any case, qbs from all types of offenses - west coast, vertical pro-set, run and shoot - all do better than bledsoe.
Dan Gross Posted September 22, 2004 Posted September 22, 2004 That's funny, his 6.6 lifetime ypa figure is exactly the same as his successor at New England, Tom Brady, who doesn't seem to be doing too bad for himself despite doing "poorly" in this "all-important stat."
34-78-83 Posted September 22, 2004 Posted September 22, 2004 You're onto something vailid and significant there Mcbride, but with one disclaimer. The Yards per attempt statistic is used by NFL team "in house" quality control officials as a measure of the productivity of an Offense (as a whole), not so much as a measure of a Qb. Good research though nonetheless.
stuckincincy Posted September 22, 2004 Posted September 22, 2004 That's funny, his 6.6 lifetime ypa figure is exactly the same as his successor at New England, Tom Brady, who doesn't seem to be doing too bad for himself despite doing "poorly" in this "all-important stat." 42149[/snapback] I see your point, but DB rode to fame on his long passes in a time when the big arm was the fashion. Who really knows? What is known is that DB has been at the helm of a lot of Bills losses - some close, some blow-outs. I certainly understand the "team about you" and the "coaching philosophy" factors, but some qb's have dealt with that, and even if they lost they gave it the "old college try", if you know what I mean. QB's in their twilight like Steve Beurline (sp?) or Neil O'Donnell may not have won a bunch of games, but they left the fans with the impression that they did the best they could. I don't get that vibe with DB.
dave mcbride Posted September 22, 2004 Author Posted September 22, 2004 That's funny, his 6.6 lifetime ypa figure is exactly the same as his successor at New England, Tom Brady, who doesn't seem to be doing too bad for himself despite doing "poorly" in this "all-important stat." 42149[/snapback] agreed. but he's better in virtually every other category (completion pct, td-int ratio, sacks taken, etc.), and when you compare the first 3 years of both, here's how they look: brady: 2001 - 6.9 2002 - 6.3 2003 - 6.9 = 6.6 average with a 61.9% completion rate and a 69/38 td/int ratio bledsoe: 1993 5.8 1994 6.6 1995 5.5 = 6.0 average with a 53.4% completion rate and a 53/58 td/int ratio i fully expect brady to boost his carerr ypa this year - he's at 8.63 right now.
Pete Posted September 22, 2004 Posted September 22, 2004 Great research. Put that in your pipe and smoke it Drew enablers.
obie_wan Posted September 23, 2004 Posted September 23, 2004 The single most meaningful independent statistic in pro football is Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential. This is the difference between a team's yards per pass gained on offense minus the same statistic yielded on defense. Through Week 2, the Bills are middle of the pack. (See http://he.net/~budsport/pub/killer-o.php) However, closer examination shows that the defense is rated at #6, but he offense is down at #23, averaging 5.3 yards per pass attempt. This is even lower than Drew's medicore historical numbers. This reinforces the fact that Drew has not made many plays to make defenses pay for non-stop blitzing to stop the run and pass.
Campy Posted September 23, 2004 Posted September 23, 2004 Great research. Put that in your pipe and smoke it Drew enablers. 42259[/snapback] Please explain to me the pleasure derived from rooting against your favorite team's QB.
USMCBillsFan Posted September 23, 2004 Posted September 23, 2004 Please explain to me the pleasure derived from rooting against your favorite team's QB. 42654[/snapback] Someone has to be blamed and it couldn't be play calling, poor blocking, poor pass catching, and under 3 yrds per carry being averaged by the backs.
Pete Posted September 24, 2004 Posted September 24, 2004 Please explain to me the pleasure derived from rooting against your favorite team's QB. Who says I get pleasure from rooting against Drew? I hope he makes me look like a fool and I want nothing but the best for him. That being said I have watched Drew his whole career(I live in New England) and beleive Drew was washed up years before he got here. He had some great games his first year here but so did Tommy Maddox with Pittsburgh and I think he sucks too. I am 100% convinced Drew is the problem and want my team to win. I am so sick of rebuilding and there is way too much talent on this team squandered. How does anyone know Drew is not the problem? How do we know that Travis Brown is not Tom Brady buried on a depth chart behind Drew? The best I have seen the Bills offense look the past 20 games is when Travis Brown was QBing. I asked the question in an earlier thread-what can Drew do on the football field that Jeff George cannot do? Jeff has a bigger arm then Drew and he is is just as tough if not tougher- he has missed fewer games in his career then Drew. Besides Drew being a good guy-what can he do that Jeff cannot? I do not think Jeff George is the answer but I think he is very comparable in skills with Drew. Doesnt that show you how overpaid and overrated Drew is? We can get George for $7million a year less. I just cannot see what Drew brings to the table. Its the emperors new clothes
BuffaloBob Posted September 24, 2004 Posted September 24, 2004 However, closer examination shows that the defense is rated at #6, but he offense is down at #23, averaging 5.3 yards per pass attempt. This is even lower than Drew's medicore historical numbers. This reinforces the fact that Drew has not made many plays to make defenses pay for non-stop blitzing to stop the run and pass. 42650[/snapback] Your citation of these weird stats seem rather disinegenuous, but then again, why would I be suprised by that. First, I don't know what site this is you've provided a link for, but it doesn't work. Nevertheless, according to both NFL.com and ESPN.com, Drew's YPA in two games this year is 7.02 (30-50 for 351 yards), not the 5.3 you cite. and therefore actually higher not lower than his historical average! Moreover, his YPA so far this year is not far off the YPA he had for his pro bowl year of 2002, which was 7.15. BTW, his YPA is actually almost a full yard greater than it was last season, when it was 6.07. But of course, I'm sure that I am apologizing now! LOL! Moreover, because of the Moorman pass, the "team" YPA is actually 7.35. Even if one takes out the 52 yards lost in sacks (which is not, BTW, how the stats McBride cited were calculated and would thus be comparing apples to oranges), that still makes Drew's YPA 6 and the team's 6.3. So I have no idea where you are getting your stats but they do not appear to be accurate. Did you hunt down a source that would make Drew look as bad as you want to portray him?? According to the two sites that I would consider far more likely to be accurate, the Bills offense is 11th in the league in YPA. Now compare that to our rushing YPA of 2.7, 31st in the league where only Miami is worse at 2.3. But yes, I know, the anti-Drew theory is that this is HIS fault for not making enough plays to beat the blitz. Yeah whatever! So when we look at the REAL stats, one can easily see that Drew's all-important YPA has actually improved significantly over last year thus far (approaching his pro bowl year average). His completion percentage is up over last season to 60% (once again approaching that of his 2002 pro bowl season). Now of course, if one were an "apologist," one might even find this encouraging. But if one were a basher, one would simply find stats that make one's point regardless of their accuracy.
BuffaloBob Posted September 24, 2004 Posted September 24, 2004 Oh, and some other interesting notes on the all-import YPA stat. Drew is 17th out of 34 QBs at 7.02, and is only a little over a tenth of a yard off of the #12 guy Matt Hasselbeck, whose team is 2-0. Moreover, his YPA is currently better than Jake Delhomme, Steve McNair, Brett Favre, Mark Brunell (5.17), Trent Green (5.47), Jeff Garcia (4.92) and Brad Johnson (4.61) to name a few. Some more interesting tidbits based on the supposed insight this stat is supposed to provide. The guy with the best YPA? David Carr of Houston at a wopping 9.9 YPA! And what is his team's record? Why 0-2! Some other interesting stats: Mr. Mobile Daunte Culpepper has been sacked 6 times in two games. I'm sure none of those were credited to Mr. McKinney the guy we should have drafted. LOL! And a team with more yards lost to sacks than the Bills? Try the Tennessee Titans and Mr. McNair with 53 yards. Oh yeah, and one last thing. Let's bench Drew for Shane Mathews ROTFLMAO! In 12 years, he's started a wopping 22 games, played in 29, wasn't even on a roster in 2003 and his career YPA is wopping 5.64! A stat that has steadily declined every year he's been in the league (2002 YPA = 5.28). You nancies crack me up. BTW, thanks for bringing this all-important stat to our attention. It would seem Drew is actually improving his play at least as indicated by this stat.
gantrules Posted September 24, 2004 Posted September 24, 2004 Brady's YPP is 140th out of the 140 QB's who have 1500 attempts or more..... Amazingly......he has two SB MVP's to go along with that.
Simon Posted September 24, 2004 Posted September 24, 2004 Your citation of these weird stats seem rather disinegenuous, but then again, why would I be suprised by that. geesus Bob, the guy is like one of the greatest posters this board has ever seen, takes a ton of time to research and present us with some interesting and viable stats and the first thing you feel the need to do is take a shot at his intelligence? WTF is that? Disagree with his conclusions all you want but at least try and garner some respect for a good person. Mean people suck
obie_wan Posted September 24, 2004 Posted September 24, 2004 you should actually go to the site and review the info. In computing his stats, he counts sacks in his # of attempts because it was a failed pass play. Based on historical info, net passing yard differnetial is a very good, objecctive baromoeter of predicting success on the field. It also supports MMs goal of establishing a strong running game which will lead to big plays and scores from play action passes. Although the defense is producing at playoff caliber level, the offense is clearly the problem. No big plays, very little scoring, lose the game. And a big part of the lack of scoring and big plays is due to the Bledsoe Factor. Your citation of these weird stats seem rather disinegenuous, but then again, why would I be suprised by that. First, I don't know what site this is you've provided a link for, but it doesn't work. Nevertheless, according to both NFL.com and ESPN.com, Drew's YPA in two games this year is 7.02 (30-50 for 351 yards), not the 5.3 you cite. and therefore actually higher not lower than his historical average! Moreover, his YPA so far this year is not far off the YPA he had for his pro bowl year of 2002, which was 7.15. BTW, his YPA is actually almost a full yard greater than it was last season, when it was 6.07. But of course, I'm sure that I am apologizing now! LOL! Moreover, because of the Moorman pass, the "team" YPA is actually 7.35. Even if one takes out the 52 yards lost in sacks (which is not, BTW, how the stats McBride cited were calculated and would thus be comparing apples to oranges), that still makes Drew's YPA 6 and the team's 6.3. So I have no idea where you are getting your stats but they do not appear to be accurate. Did you hunt down a source that would make Drew look as bad as you want to portray him?? According to the two sites that I would consider far more likely to be accurate, the Bills offense is 11th in the league in YPA. Now compare that to our rushing YPA of 2.7, 31st in the league where only Miami is worse at 2.3. But yes, I know, the anti-Drew theory is that this is HIS fault for not making enough plays to beat the blitz. Yeah whatever! So when we look at the REAL stats, one can easily see that Drew's all-important YPA has actually improved significantly over last year thus far (approaching his pro bowl year average). His completion percentage is up over last season to 60% (once again approaching that of his 2002 pro bowl season). Now of course, if one were an "apologist," one might even find this encouraging. But if one were a basher, one would simply find stats that make one's point regardless of their accuracy. 44057[/snapback]
34-78-83 Posted September 24, 2004 Posted September 24, 2004 geesus Bob, the guy is like one of the greatest posters this board has ever seen 44239[/snapback] I'm sorry, and with all due respect, but please pont me to all these great posts
BuffaloBob Posted September 24, 2004 Posted September 24, 2004 you should actually go to the site and review the info. In computing his stats, he counts sacks in his # of attempts because it was a failed pass play. Based on historical info, net passing yard differnetial is a very good, objecctive baromoeter of predicting success on the field. It also supports MMs goal of establishing a strong running game which will lead to big plays and scores from play action passes. Although the defense is producing at playoff caliber level, the offense is clearly the problem. No big plays, very little scoring, lose the game. And a big part of the lack of scoring and big plays is due to the Bledsoe Factor. 44243[/snapback] I did try to go the site, and it the link would not take me their. The fact that this guy uses sacks as failed pass attempts should have been revealed at the time you quoted the YPA stat of 5.3. Otherwise, it is disingenuous to quote that stat when all of the relevant YPA stats quoted earlier do NOT include sacks in their YPA. You took a swipe at Drew (as you are want to do at every possible opportunity) by comparing that 5.3 YPA number (now revealed as oranges) as being lower than his already mediocre historical stats (meaning those apples originally quoted above by McBride). This is what I took exception to and has nothing to do with the net passing yardage differential to which you refer. My point is that you and others love to bash Drew at every possible opportunity and when you do so withs stats, you aren't even above-board when doing so. Perhaps you didn't realize at first that he had included the 8 sacks as attempts, which the stats that McBride cited did not. But even in that case, at the very least you demonstrate your bias and zealous desire to constantly prove your opinion that Drew sucks. And if you did know that, then your little dig at Drew regarding his current YPA being well-below the YPA figures that had already been cited by McBride was knowingly misrepresentative. Either way, as I posted above, it ignores the fact that comparitively speaking, his YPA numbers when comparing apples to apples demonstrates an actual improvement over last year and approaches the levels of his first pro bowl season with the Bills. And as I said before, I guess providing a meaningful set of data that should provide any objective observer with a reason to feel positive about Drew's performance so far this year makes me an apologist.
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