ExiledInIllinois Posted January 18, 2006 Posted January 18, 2006 I understand the point, but one would think that as QBs were in fact drafted in the first round between 1989 and 1999 and 2001 (5-7 years ago) who would have filled the pipeline of QBs. Perhaps this 10-12 year period is where your statistical burp occurs. However, 1. Even given a 5-7 year time period for QB development (many are actually a lot shorter than this before productiveity actually so is true for many but seems a bit long) we're looking at a burp which may well be into 3 generations of QBs. The statistical burp is well on its way to a hearty belch. 2. Logical reasons actually point to the factors which feed this seemingly random event are getting more intense. A. 5-7 years is simply too long for QB development with the same team in this win now league. B. Given the standard 1st round contract length, a 5-7 year development period probably means you need to sign a second big contract before the QB develops into a producer. Your timeline happens in terms of eventual productvity but the Jake Plummer creer which fits your description is a bit more rare than the Todd Collins track and results. 3. The fact you can throw in a lot of exceptions to the draft a QB in the 1st (throw in Dilfer and Johnson with your mention of Warner, Brady, amd Delhomme and one begins to see non 1st round keepers are actually the normal occurence while no first round keeper has won the SB. Also, you mention Plummer as righting the ship of state, he actually is another high fraft pick QB who was chosen by AZ and trained by them and Denver know gets the benefit because rather than drafting him they saw they could buy him when he hit FA. 571991[/snapback] I do see your point and of course I am trying to ad some levity to the debate... Please just take it at that. I don't think it is about WINNING the SB. I think the important thing is a QB that will make you productive, competitive winner and "get you there" consistently... Winning the SB will always be a crap shoot. I don't think we are skipping three generations of highly picked QB's... The Bledsoes and Farves (even Atlanta knew to take him but, didn't know how to use him... Their problem.) have paid off... The McNairs, Plummers, Mannings, and McNabbs paid off... Now the Palmers, Big Ben and Eli... Maybe the Grossmans will pay? Aikman won not even 10 years ago... The Warners, Bradys, and Delhommes have been a stroke of luck. I made the new car/used car analogy... Because one can't resist driving the new car out of the lot even know it loses thousands the moment you do it. Just as you can glean a QB in the later rounds... Passing on talent early is just too risky... It leads to other teams piling into the frenzy. It is just got to be that way.
ExiledInIllinois Posted January 18, 2006 Posted January 18, 2006 It's hard for me to see why folks seem to want to completely reject my point or somehow view it as having been shown to be wrong. All I am saying is that rather than looking for your QB of the future in a 1st round pick, the real world if the measure is SB wins or even berths in the SB is to buy your 1st rounder after he has been run out of town elsewhere rather than losing with him now.571995[/snapback] I do agree with this. Kinda like driving that "pre owned" car after it took the intial depreciation. But, it is impossible to just sit there and wait... You are gonna miss the train... Everybody at some time, "buys new." Our (the Bills) last "used car" was considered a lemon by most... Even if I don't totally agree with them.
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