Onfield play necessary but not sufficient for JP

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Some folks seem to be addicted to the notion that the Bills have no choice but to go through a painful cycle of losing with Losman in order for him to be come the QB all of us Bills fans want him to become.

 

I think this is incorrect.

 

However, this is not wrong because onfield time is not useful or even not necessary to develop QB skills.

 

I think it is an incorrect truism to over-focus on because:

 

1. Even to the extent playing on field is necessary it is far from sufficient to properly develop a QB.

 

Some folks seem to want to trot JP out there as the starter and have him learn by losing come heck or high water. This is wrong. Not only can he learn a lot by playing the game, but he also can damage himself, the team, or lose confidence and ruin himself as a QB if the main thing playing get him is a series of bad beats that teach him little or cause his teammates to lose faith in him.

 

A great QB will certainly refuse to lose and respond to bad situations by doing Jim Kelly, John Elway or Joe Montana like things. However, Bueller it would be dumb to require that Losman produce like Kelly, Elway or Montana and if he does not he then is clearly a total loser.

 

If JP only achieves the less than best QB ever performance of a brad Johnson, a Trent Dilfer or has a couple of outstanding seasons surrounded by journeyman performance of Kurt Warmer that should be fine with us if he can unite with the rest of the team to win SBs.

 

JP should not be thrown out on the field simply to lose and get training. This is partocularly true if he then is going to get run out of town by impatient fans and the media for losing as Steve Young, Brett Favre and Brad Johnson were done in their failed training attempts.

 

2. Just cause on-field play is essential this does not mean that off-field learning has no value.

 

Nothing can reolace the learning a player gets looking at Ds over the center's back in a game. However. there is a lot of useful knowledge to be gained watching the game from the sidelines and seeing what everyone is doing. Even better is watching the game from upstairs and not being distracted by yukking it up with your teammates.

 

I hope JP used his enfrced absence last year to sit up above with Sam Wyche and get an invaluable download of a former HC's perspective from up in the booth.

 

The clock is ticking on JP and unfortunately the alarm bell may already be ringing because the Bills front office appear to have rushed him along. By jettisoning a vet QB and going with the youngster, it appears that the Bills players may have taken it as a message that the Bills braintrust was willing to wait for JP to develop and the team would take its lumps losing until he came around.

 

The D simply did not perform even before the injury to TKO and I think that the players may have in the back of their minds may have simply have made the judgment that no matter how bad Bledsoe was, the team voluntarily decided not to put their better QB on the field to give JP more reps.

 

I think the players saw the team treating our O performance as practice for JP which they hoped would work and the D ended up playing against the run as though it were practice and got killed.

 

Nexty year, I think Holcomb and JP should come into camp with the knowledge that the best player will win. There is simply no need for this team to name a #1 QB right now and simply allow this to be decided on the field with a resolution by the thrird pre-season game next year.

[finknottle]

Some folks seem to be addicted to the notion that the Bills have no choice but to go through a painful cycle of losing with Losman in order for him to be come the QB all of us Bills fans want him to become.

 

I think this is incorrect.

 

However, this is not wrong because onfield time is not useful or even not necessary to develop QB skills.

 

:

543588[/snapback]

 

I did a study a few months back that showed 1/2 of first round qb's don't make it, 1/4 make it as journeymen, and only 1/4 become starters.

 

The conclusion I hoped people would come to is that yes, starting a guy is the fastest way to get him experience and see what you have, BUT you are taking a step backwards for a few years with bad odds of it working out. In that case, the best strategy for the franchise is to periodically draft guys, let them ride the pine for a few years while you train and evaluate him until you are very confident of his value. It's slower, less sure, but the franchise escapes the qb-go-round that perennial losers get caught up in, drafting and starting a new non-answer every 3 years.

[Adam]

The media and impatient fans are there to be ignored. The coaches and front office should do whatever they think is right, and ignore everyone else, cause those people are not in the league for a reason.

[meazza]

trying to predict a good quarterback out of college is like trying to predict how a woman will react

your odds are 1 in a 1000 of getting it right

[Adam]

trying to predict a good quarterback out of college is like trying to predict how a woman will react

your odds are 1 in a 1000 of getting it right

543722[/snapback]

wow- I figured I did a bit better than that

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

The media and impatient fans are there to be ignored. The coaches and front office should do whatever they think is right, and ignore everyone else, cause those people are not in the league for a reason.

543715[/snapback]

 

To me this has been the Bills problem even well befpre they rolled Jimbo out of the Jax game on a golf cart. Buffalo's front office and its fans became so addicted to the idea of having a stud QB that both parties have lost the laser beam focus on building a good team and consistently hurt the team trying to get the silver bullet of a great QB.

 

Specifically:

 

1. Butler and the gang refused to confront the fact that Jimbo would not last forever and failed to follow the path you correctly suggest of trying to get a replacement well in advance to ride the pine and learn. They should have drafted a lower round development QB a year or two before they drafted Collins and instead suddenly confronted with the reality over-reached for TC in the draft.

 

2. RWS joined the psychotics in over-estimating how long Jimbo would last and he made a handsake aggreement with Jimbo before his last FA year to reward him in the next contract. When Jimbo was wheeled off the field and out of football, RWS had to break NFL rules but was not formerly punished for the cap violation of paying Jimbo a million bucks walking away money (It would not shock me to find out that psrt of the RWS difficulty in being voted to the HOF was this act).

 

3. The Bills braintrust rushed TC into the starting role when it was clear that he needed to have happy-feet trained out of him if possible.

 

4. Butler really panicked at not having a QB when it became clear TC was not the answer and over-reached trading a 3rd for Billy Joe Idiotbert.

 

5. Kudos to AJ Smith for recognizing that Flutie was worth a risk. However, brickbats to Butler and the gang for:

 

A. signing a deal with Flutie which apparently much to his surprise the Bills were willing to roll his achieved incentives into his base salary.

B. Them reneged on their understanding with Flutie he would get a fair shot in camp and signed RJ to a huge bonus guaranteeing him the starting job.

C. This combo of moves set the Bills QB fate for years as when RJ proved to be injury prone and Flutie made the incentives, the Bills ended up with a $10 million buck QB cap hit (DF's achieved incentives from 1999. DF's new base salary unless they renegotiated, and RJ\s prorated bonus). The Bills were forced to sign DF to an extension or they would have had to cut a lot of players.

 

6. The Bills actually made a great move IMHO trading the 2003 1st round pick for Bledsoe. Once again I think the media and fans over-value 1st round picks and the need to cut DF and then RJ left the Bills with AVP at best as starter. Bledsoe was clearly not the scary opponent he was as a strong armed rookie and was not going to lead a team to an SB, but he clearly was much better than AVP. His 2002 where his production deserved selection to the Pro Bowl as a reserve was deserved (if you think not then name the player (s) who you feel deserved the reserve nod more that year).

 

However, rather than cutting their losses as a wash when Bledsoe followe a very good 92 with a horrible 03, the QB addicted front office and fans instead saw him extended.

 

7. Having committed financially to Bledsoe for the semi-long term the front office instead reversed field and took a cap hit this year cutting him and instead rushed JP into a starting role even he said he did not earn on the field or get the right way.

 

The Bills front office, media and many fans have been too addicted to trying to find the next Jim Kelly and it has hurt this team big time.

[Guest BackInDaDay]

You're right. Inserting an inexperienced QB into game situations will not guarantee positive results. The owner, front-office, coaching staff and players have to all be on-board with what's trying to be accomplished.

 

The success of the young QB's grooming must become a mission that the entire team can take pride in.

 

The defense must contribute a stubborness and a refusal to surrender when placed in bad situations due to the QB's turnovers. Rather than playing the blame game, a supportive group must rally behind their teammate and minimize the damage. The D coordinator must develope schemes designed to turning the ball over. D position coaches must take the time to drill the techniques necessary toward that goal. An aggressive, focused defense will take great pride in accomplishing the week's gameplan on the field.

 

The special teams units must give the offense the best field position possible. This will force opposing defenses into more conservative schemes to deny further penetration. Defenses will throw the riskier stuff at you when you're deep in your own end, and that situation should be avoided. Again, the ST units should take pride in their part of keeping their QB on a comfortable part of the field.

 

The offensive unit must find a way to run the ball consistently. A QB's best friend is a good running game and everything works better when an opposing D is on their heels. The well executed play-action pass in a running O will freeze LBs and safeties and grant the young QB a valuable split second in reading the coverage. A strong O-line allows you the luxury of playing with a TE who makes up in seperation and receiving skills what he may lack in superior blocking skills. This player will be an outlet and the recipient of many of the QB's 'check-downs'. A disciplined offensive system will allow the O coordinator to manage the risk/reward of each play called in a well reasoned gameplan. Giving the QB the opportunity to succeed is giving him the opportunity to learn and grow at his position.

 

A great deal of work and will power is necessary to forge such a team. A commitment of this magnitude requires the sacrifice of singular goals by players, coaches, GMs and owners, alike. You just have to have the stomach for it.

[2003Contenders]

I don't think MM and TD missed the boat with JP being named starter this year as much as they were simply wrong about everything else around him. Look at the Bears. They are proof that that formula: strong defense and decent rushing attack can mask the shortcomings of an inexperienced QB. If anything, Orton was even less effective than JP. The sad truth is that our own coaching staff overrated our defense -- and understimated the lengths that opposing defenses would go to to stop our rushing attack.

 

Also, I don't think that starting Holcomb every game would have meant the playoffs for this team either. I think there was a conflcit in philosophy back in February, where someone -- be it Wyche or MM -- felt that the best thing to do for JP was to provide nothing in the way of a challenge and name him the uncontested starter going in. I think perhaps that whoever made the ultimate decision was looking too closely at things that happened with other teams -- namely Cinci and Pittsburgh -- without regards to our own situation.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

The media and impatient fans are there to be ignored. The coaches and front office should do whatever they think is right, and ignore everyone else, cause those people are not in the league for a reason.

543715[/snapback]

 

To me this has been the Bills problem even well befpre they rolled Jimbo out of the Jax game on a golf cart. Buffalo's front office and its fans became so addicted to the idea of having a stud QB that both parties have lost the laser beam focus on building a good team and consistently hurt the team trying to get the silver bullet of a great QB.

 

Specifically:

 

1. Butler and the gang refused to confront the fact that Jimbo would not last forever and failed to follow the path you correctly suggest of trying to get a replacement well in advance to ride the pine and learn. They should have drafted a lower round development QB a year or two before they drafted Collins and instead suddenly confronted with the reality over-reached for TC in the draft.

 

2. RWS joined the psychotics in over-estimating how long Jimbo would last and he made a handsake aggreement with Jimbo before his last FA year to reward him in the next contract. When Jimbo was wheeled off the field and out of football, RWS had to break NFL rules but was not formerly punished for the cap violation of paying Jimbo a million bucks walking away money (It would not shock me to find out that psrt of the RWS difficulty in being voted to the HOF was this act).

 

3. The Bills braintrust rushed TC into the starting role when it was clear that he needed to have happy-feet trained out of him if possible.

 

4. Butler really panicked at not having a QB when it became clear TC was not the answer and over-reached trading a 3rd for Billy Joe Idiotbert.

 

5. Kudos to AJ Smith for recognizing that Flutie was worth a risk. However, brickbats to Butler and the gang for:

 

A. signing a deal with Flutie which apparently much to his surprise the Bills were willing to roll his achieved incentives into his base salary.

B. Them reneged on their understanding with Flutie he would get a fair shot in camp and signed RJ to a huge bonus guaranteeing him the starting job.

C. This combo of moves set the Bills QB fate for years as when RJ proved to be injury prone and Flutie made the incentives, the Bills ended up with a $10 million buck QB cap hit (DF's achieved incentives from 1999. DF's new base salary unless they renegotiated, and RJ\s prorated bonus). The Bills were forced to sign DF to an extension or they would have had to cut a lot of players.

 

6. The Bills actually made a great move IMHO trading the 2003 1st round pick for Bledsoe. Once again I think the media and fans over-value 1st round picks and the need to cut DF and then RJ left the Bills with AVP at best as starter. Bledsoe was clearly not the scary opponent he was as a strong armed rookie and was not going to lead a team to an SB, but he clearly was much better than AVP. His 2002 where his production deserved selection to the Pro Bowl as a reserve was deserved (if you think not then name the player (s) who you feel deserved the reserve nod more that year).

 

However, rather than cutting their losses as a wash when Bledsoe followe a very good 92 with a horrible 03, the QB addicted front office and fans instead saw him extended.

 

7. Having committed financially to Bledsoe for the semi-long term the front office instead reversed field and took a cap hit this year cutting him and instead rushed JP into a starting role even he said he did not earn on the field or get the right way.

 

The Bills front office, media and many fans have been too addicted to trying to find the next Jim Kelly and it has hurt this team big time.

[IowaBill]

The Bills front office, media and many fans have been too addicted to trying to find the next Jim Kelly and it has hurt this team big time.

543806[/snapback]

 

This goes back even further than Jim Kelly. Recall the line up of wanna - bes and washouts we had when Joe Ferguson left (Vince Ferragamo, Bruce Mathison, Joe Dufek) Following the demise of Jack Kemp, Dennis Shaw was brought in as rookie starter out of San Diego State, had one good year, and then was lousy, Joe Ferguson started as a rookie and proved to be a real NFL quality QB, even though there was no grooming or attempts to "train him" on the sidelines. Don't think for minute that Kelly would not have started as a rookie had he not gone to the USFL. Who knows how that would have worked, as the Bills back in the mid eighties were more pathetic than they are now, with far worse coaching (Hank Bullough, anyone?) his is a pattern with the Bills (the quick QB fix) and it most likely starts at the top.

[ganesh]

The conclusion I hoped people would come to is that yes, starting a guy is the fastest way to get him experience and see what you have,  BUT you are taking a step backwards for a few years with bad odds of it working out.  In that case,  the best strategy for the franchise is to periodically draft guys,  let them ride the pine for a few years while you train and evaluate him until you are very confident of his value.  It's slower,  less sure,  but the franchise escapes the qb-go-round that perennial losers get caught up in,  drafting and starting a new non-answer every 3 years.

543710[/snapback]

 

That is why teams like NE periodically keep drafting QB prospects in the later

rounds hoping that while you are nurturing a starter, a gem might break out

down the line....Then you either have the option of replacing with the gem

from the lower round (Tom Brady) or get draft picks for trading (a Jake

Delhomme)....Unfortunately the bills have never done that for a long time...

[Guest BackInDaDay]

Major corporations search top universities for students who have demonstrated an ability to embrace challenge and excel at the college level. The best performers at the most competitive schools are the most sought after. Common sense dictates that these are the people that have the best chance of contributing to the success of the company.

 

It's these people who are 'groomed for success'. They represent an investment so they're nourished by a support system which hastens their developement.

 

Of course, an under-achiever who finishes in the middle to lower portion of his class may turn out to be a more valuable asset than his highly recruited classmate, but what would lead a prospective employer to invest in the future of an unknown quantity?

 

The NFL is no different.

 

The best performers from the best programs in the most competitive conferences of the most competitve divisions are invited to the combine and are drafted first.

An NFL team which is serious in developing a QB for years to come will draft the best available. The 'best available' is the kid that has consistently proven himself on the toughest college fields for many Saturdays.

 

A business that doesn't make a determined effort to hire the most promising candidate and committing to him, must do one of two things.

1. Settle for crossing it's fingers and promoting someone from the mailroom each year.

2. Raid the talent of their competitor.

 

These are the Bills' choices - keep spinning the draft wheel or sign a top-notch free agent QB. Neither of these choices have panned out well in recent past.

 

I was hoping OBD had changed it's stripes when they made such an effort to secure a top 5 QB in the 1st round. The addition of Wyche to a fresh coaching staff sent a signal that the Bills were serious about getting all their ducks in a row on this one. Unfortunately, their commitment was shallow and fleeting.

[34-78-83]

You're right.  Inserting an inexperienced QB into game situations will not guarantee positive results.  The owner, front-office, coaching staff and players have to all be on-board with what's trying to be accomplished. 

 

The success of the young QB's grooming must become a mission that the entire team can take pride in. 

 

The defense must contribute a stubborness and a refusal to surrender when placed in bad situations due to the QB's turnovers. Rather than playing the blame game, a supportive group must rally behind their teammate and minimize the damage.  The D coordinator must develope schemes designed to turning the ball over. D position coaches must take the time to drill the techniques necessary toward that goal.  An aggressive, focused defense will take great pride in accomplishing the week's gameplan on the field.

 

The special teams units must give the offense the best field position possible.  This will force opposing defenses into more conservative schemes to deny further penetration.  Defenses will throw the riskier stuff at you when you're deep in your own end, and that situation should be avoided.  Again, the ST units should take pride in their part of keeping their QB on a comfortable part of the field.

 

The offensive unit must find a way to run the ball consistently.  A QB's best friend is a good running game and everything works better when an opposing D is on their heels.  The well executed play-action pass in a running O will freeze LBs and safeties and grant the young QB a valuable split second in reading the coverage. A strong O-line allows you the luxury of playing with a TE who makes up in seperation and receiving skills what he may lack in superior blocking skills.  This player will be an outlet and the recipient of many of the QB's 'check-downs'.  A disciplined offensive system will allow the O coordinator to manage the risk/reward of each play called in a well reasoned gameplan.  Giving the QB the opportunity to succeed is giving him the opportunity to learn and grow at his position.

 

A great deal of work and will power is necessary to forge such a team.  A commitment of this magnitude requires the sacrifice of singular goals by players, coaches, GMs and owners, alike.  You just have to have the stomach for it.

543767[/snapback]

 

Excellent post. A good read and very true.

[Guest BackInDaDay]

Excellent post. A good read and very true.

544048[/snapback]

 

Thanks, and Happy Holidays.

 

I believe the Bears went into their season setup to finally get Grossman going and were able to fall back on this kind of infratructure when Orton had to step in. It probably saved their season, which is why I think Lovie Smith is the NFL's coach of the year.

 

In the off-season I thought the Bills were dedicated to creating a similar environment. Accentuating last season's strengths in an effort to afford Losman the best opportunity to succeed. I think the coaches did their best 'scheme-wise' with the personnel Donahoe gave them, but they couldn't overcome what became glaring deficiencies as the season progressed.

 

But it wasn't all on Donahoe.

 

If Mularkey and his GM had a plan, he didn't do a very good job of expressing it to the players. Either he didn't preach total team effort, or the congregation wasn't listening. Either the players didn't understand the sense of urgency needed to accomplish their goals, or the goals weren't set forcefully enough.

 

The fact that this team has been capable of both pitiful and outstanding play leads me to believe that it's been left to the players to set their own goals and challenge each other to accomplish them. Veteran leadership has tried to fill a void left from a lack of explicite goals. Some of them introduced their own goals into this void and the whole season began spinning out of control.

 

The free-for-all we've witnessed this year is a good example of a team of individuals.

 

Some playing for each other.

Some playing for themselves.

Some so uninspired, they rather not play.

[Sound_n_Fury]

Major corporations search top universities for students who have demonstrated an ability to embrace challenge and excel at the college level.  The best performers at the most competitive schools are the most sought after.  Common sense dictates that these are the people that have the best chance of contributing to the success of the company. 

 

It's these people who are 'groomed for success'. They represent an investment so they're nourished by a support system which hastens their developement.

544031[/snapback]

 

And, just like the NFL, about one-third of these "best performers" fall flat on their face in the corporate world, at least based on my experience. Being able to produce at the college level and doing it in the "pros" is no different in business than it is football. In fact, the college "all-star" is often washed out sooner (after 2-3 years--up or out), given the higher expectations/salary they generally carry.

[Guest BackInDaDay]

And, just like the NFL, about one-third of these "best performers" fall flat on their face in the corporate world, at least based on my experience.  Being able to produce at the college level and doing it in the "pros" is no different in business than it is football.    In fact, the college "all-star" is often washed out sooner (after 2-3 years--up or out), given the higher expectations/salary they generally carry.

544160[/snapback]

 

"Of course, an under-achiever who finishes in the middle to lower portion of his class may turn out to be a more valuable asset than his highly recruited classmate, but what would lead a prospective employer to invest in the future of an unknown quantity?"

 

You have to base your hiring decisions on something.

Grades, interests, haircut, cup-size?

[Sound_n_Fury]

You have to base your hiring decisions on something.

Grades, interests, haircut, cup-size? 

544173[/snapback]

 

Those things get you an interview, but past experience in hiring high performing "pros" is generally the best tool for picking the right people. Like drafting, its an inexact science, but what looks good on paper often fails the "live bullets" test.

[Dan]

These are all some good points about how to continually find and keep a quality starting QB. However, the biggest mistake, that is also the most common mistake, is assuming that you need to find top QB.

 

What you need, and what ALL good QBs have (and have always had) are good offensive lines. Without a good line, any QB will fall apart. Look no further than Kelly. He was a HOF QB. When his line began falling apart, so did his play. Why was Elway able to play so much longer - look no further than the 5 guys in front of him.

 

The only QB with any success here in the last decade has been Futie (which still amazes me why so many people dislike him). And he won games only because his career was built on running around scrambling for his life which is all a QB can do behind a piss poor o-line.

 

So, although I agree with much of what's been said here. IMO, the Bills biggest problem for years has been the neglecting of the offensive line. Either we upgrade the line or we get a scrambling run-first oriented Qb, its that simple.

[Guest BackInDaDay]

Those things get you an interview, but past experience in hiring high performing "pros" is generally the best tool for picking the right people.  Like drafting, its an inexact science, but what looks good on paper often fails the "live bullets" test.

544183[/snapback]

 

In some fields a candidate's grades are a direct reflection of their ability to master certain disciplines. For example, a kid with low grades in math and science would have a difficult time landing his first engineering job. The kids with the sparkling GPAs have to get the first interviews and most likely, the jobs.

 

Some things are measurable and indicitive of higher quality.

 

Gil Brandt, the architect of Tex Schramm's innovated scouting systems of the late '60s Cowboys once mused that he could measure everything but a player's heart.

 

That didn't stop him from measuring everything else.