Mikie2times Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 I messed around with a excel draft order program I found online, and it looks almost guaranteed the Bills and Jets winner will drop 5 or more spots. Buffalo would likely be in the 11-13 range if they win, and between 4-7 if they lose. I did a lot of scenarios with other teams winning and losing, and if Buffalo loses a top 5 pick is almost a lock. Then for the Jets if they lose they could end up 1st overall, but with a win could fall to the 6-9 range. Check out the link, and make sure to hit sort on the predicted draft order sheet to ensure it shows the changes made. Excel Draft Order Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRebound Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 I still think the Bills have an excellent shot at the 3rd pick if they lose to the Jets. I think Green Bay wins one of their next 2 at home (Chicago on Christmas and against a Seattle team that could have home field wrapped up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEAST MODE BABY! Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 If Tennessee and Arizona winn next week, and we lose out, that puts us in a good position for the 4th pick...and we take Mario WIlliams? Realistically, I put us 5th through 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 I still think the Bills have an excellent shot at the 3rd pick if they lose to the Jets. I think Green Bay wins one of their next 2 at home (Chicago on Christmas and against a Seattle team that could have home field wrapped up). 538438[/snapback] There's no way GB beats Chicago or Seattle's scrubs. If Tennessee and Arizona winn next week, and we lose out, that puts us in a good position for the 4th pick...and we take Mario WIlliams? Realistically, I put us 5th through 7th. 538440[/snapback] As much as I'd love to see us land Mario Williams I don't think he makes it past pick #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Poojer Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 picking 4-7 is like kissing your sister...if you are gonna get high draft picks, get high draft picks, 4-7 will be way too overvalued, where as top 3 opens a whole new world to mucho mucho draft picks via trades I messed around with a excel draft order program I found online, and it looks almost guaranteed the Bills and Jets winner will drop 5 or more spots. Buffalo would likely be in the 11-13 range if they win, and between 4-7 if they lose. I did a lot of scenarios with other teams winning and losing, and if Buffalo loses a top 5 pick is almost a lock. Then for the Jets if they lose they could end up 1st overall, but with a win could fall to the 6-9 range. Check out the link, and make sure to hit sort on the predicted draft order sheet to ensure it shows the changes made. Excel Draft Order Link 538422[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 20, 2005 Author Share Posted December 20, 2005 picking 4-7 is like kissing your sister...if you are gonna get high draft picks, get high draft picks, 4-7 will be way too overvalued, where as top 3 opens a whole new world to mucho mucho draft picks via trades 538447[/snapback] If we lose to the Jets 3 or 4 looks possible, and remember some awesome talent exists in the first few picks. Lienhart and Bush might just pave the way for Ferguson or Williams to be available, when in other drafts they would be top 3 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 If we lose to the Jets 3 or 4 looks possible, and remember some awesome talent exists in the first few picks. Lienhart and Bush might just pave the way for Ferguson or Williams to be available, when in other drafts they would be top 3 for sure. 538449[/snapback] I have a feeling Lienhart's stock will drop come draft day and team's aren't going to be as enamored with him as fans are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 If Tennessee and Arizona winn next week, and we lose out, that puts us in a good position for the 4th pick...and we take Mario WIlliams? 538440[/snapback] NOOOOO!!!!!! No taking an M. Williams with the 4th pick!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drnykterstein Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 picking 4-7 is like kissing your sister...if you are gonna get high draft picks, get high draft picks, 4-7 will be way too overvalued, where as top 3 opens a whole new world to mucho mucho draft picks via trades 538447[/snapback] In this super high salary cap age, top 3 draft picks are not desireable anymore. Nobody wants to pay any one player that kind of money. I'm happy with the #7 pick and taking the top rated guy who weighs over 300 lbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Poojer Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 my point is with a top 3 pick, especially this year when there are 3 slam dunk picks, we get in there, swap that pick with someone between 4-10, then take that pick and trade down again, all the while bagging late round or future picks. In this super high salary cap age, top 3 draft picks are not desireable anymore. Nobody wants to pay any one player that kind of money. I'm happy with the #7 pick and taking the top rated guy who weighs over 300 lbs. 538460[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 20, 2005 Author Share Posted December 20, 2005 I have a feeling Lienhart's stock will drop come draft day and team's aren't going to be as enamored with him as fans are. 538453[/snapback] It could happen, in my mind his stock has dropped as Reggie Bush's went up. Still he's a QB with an incredible resume, and as Joey Harrington showed teams are so QB desperate a good bowl game can vault a QB into the top 3. Lienhart has already had that status for 2 seasons, and with a good bowl game will likely have teams like the Saints, Titans, Jets, and Lions pinning for his services. Perhaps even enough to try and trade up to get him. The more action the better for the Bills, and while I recognize the need for a DT, Mario Williams or D'Brick Ferguson seem like major steals if they manage to fall to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 J-E-T-S (I feel dirty saying it, but it is a must lose game) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2003Contenders Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 Assuming that we wind up with picks 5-8, that places us in almost the same situation we were in back in 2002, when there was no clear cut #4 pick. That also kills us in terms of being able to trade down. We might as well upset the Bengals this week and beat the Jets. Then we're picking in the early teens, getting better value for our pick -- and not paying so much money for an unproven rookie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 20, 2005 Author Share Posted December 20, 2005 Assuming that we wind up with picks 5-8, that places us in almost the same situation we were in back in 2002, when there was no clear cut #4 pick. That also kills us in terms of being able to trade down. We might as well upset the Bengals this week and beat the Jets. Then we're picking in the early teens, getting better value for our pick -- and not paying so much money for an unproven rookie. 538473[/snapback] I see this draft class as being different then 2002, and an elite player being available. To me you have 4 major talents in Lienhart, Bush, Ferguson, and Williams, past that some players could also warrant top 5 attention in Hawk, Ngata, or Young if he declares. If we can end up at 4 or 5 a real chance exists that we land either Ferguson or Williams which happen to also serve need areas. Anything past 5 and your likely getting into Ngata territory if he posts a good combine, and East West game. This is one of the most heralded drafts in a long time, and while sometimes that amounts to squat in the long run, it is a much better year then 2002 was for picking top 5 or top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEAST MODE BABY! Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 Also, never underestimate other teams stupidity when it comes to the draft, and reaching for a 'need' player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan III Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 It could happen, in my mind his stock has dropped as Reggie Bush's went up. Still he's a QB with an incredible resume, and as Joey Harrington showed teams are so QB desperate a good bowl game can vault a QB into the top 3. Lienhart has already had that status for 2 seasons, and with a good bowl game will likely have teams like the Saints, Titans, Jets, and Lions pinning for his services. Perhaps even enough to try and trade up to get him. The more action the better for the Bills, and while I recognize the need for a DT, Mario Williams or D'Brick Ferguson seem like major steals if they manage to fall to us. 538464[/snapback] The Titans OC is Norm Chow, but I don't know if he has enough pull in the organization to get them to trade up for Leinhart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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