JDG Posted December 19, 2005 Share Posted December 19, 2005 Lots of people are convinced that the Bills are going to have a very high draft pick. Unfortunately, I don't think that is necessarily the case. Accounting of all 16 opponents on the schedule, the current draft standings are like this: 1/2: Houston and San Francisco (in some order) 3: NY Jets 4: New Orleans If Baltimore wins tonight, Green Bay is #5. If the Packers win, they are #11. Here are the tiebreakers for the 4-loss teams: Tennessee - 113 Detroit - 113 Arizona - 113 Buffalo - 113 NY Jets - 116 Baltimore - 118 So, looking at these numbers, it seems safe to pencil us in for about #7-9 pick. JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R. Rich Posted December 19, 2005 Share Posted December 19, 2005 Hopefully, our pick will be high enough to get a stud pass rusher like Mario Williams. If we could land him in round one, a run stuffing DT like Gabe Watson in round 2, and maybe even a LT prospect (I'd say Jonathan Scott, but I doubt he falls far enough) w/ our earliest 3rd round pick, I'd be quite happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsjunkie Posted December 19, 2005 Share Posted December 19, 2005 Hopefully, our pick will be high enough to get a stud pass rusher like Mario Williams. If we could land him in round one, a run stuffing DT like Gabe Watson in round 2, and maybe even a LT prospect (I'd say Jonathan Scott, but I doubt he falls far enough) w/ our earliest 3rd round pick, I'd be quite happy. 537032[/snapback] I drafted Jonathan Scott in the third round for my Bills franchise in Madden 06'. He turned out alright. I also stole Gruden away from the Buccs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortured Soul Posted December 19, 2005 Share Posted December 19, 2005 I don't get why you don't think we could end up drafting higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BravinSeattle Posted December 19, 2005 Share Posted December 19, 2005 Lots of people are convinced that the Bills are going to have a very high draft pick. Unfortunately, I don't think that is necessarily the case. Accounting of all 16 opponents on the schedule, the current draft standings are like this: 1/2: Houston and San Francisco (in some order) 3: NY Jets 4: New Orleans If Baltimore wins tonight, Green Bay is #5. If the Packers win, they are #11. Here are the tiebreakers for the 4-loss teams: Tennessee - 113 Detroit - 113 Arizona - 113 Buffalo - 113 NY Jets - 116 Baltimore - 118 So, looking at these numbers, it seems safe to pencil us in for about #7-9 pick. JDG 537024[/snapback] I think my disagreement lies in my belief that I think Green Bay will win tonight and gain their fourth victory, the Jets will win their final game vs us giving them 4 wins and New Orleans will defeat Detroit at home in what could be their final game in Louisiana. That makes the order -- 1/2 - San Francisco/Houston T3. Buffalo, New Orleans, Green Bay, Oakland, Arizona and Detroit will likely all have 4 wins. I project Tennessee and Baltimore will get one more to finish with 5. Plus, isn't the tiebreaker your opponents winning pct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted December 19, 2005 Author Share Posted December 19, 2005 I think my disagreement lies in my belief that I think Green Bay will win tonight and gain their fourth victory, the Jets will win their final game vs us giving them 4 wins and New Orleans will defeat Detroit at home in what could be their final game in Louisiana. That makes the order -- 1/2 - San Francisco/Houston T3. Buffalo, New Orleans, Green Bay, Oakland, Arizona and Detroit will likely all have 4 wins. I project Tennessee and Baltimore will get one more to finish with 5. Plus, isn't the tiebreaker your opponents winning pct? 537057[/snapback] Yes, the tiebreaker is the opponents winning percentage - or in other words: (opponents total wins) / (opponents total games.) Since everyone's (opponents total games) is 256, you can simplify the tiebreaker to "opponents total wins." Anyhow, the point of my post is that Buffalo doesn't exactly have much of lead in the "strength of schedule" tiebreaker - contrary to what some people were projecting last week. Moreover, due to a couple of factors, such as New England playing two division games down the stretch, the Bills' opponents have a few more "locked in" wins coming up in the next two weeks than our competitors. So, while its probably not impossible for us to end up with a Top 5 pick - given all the things that can happen down the stretch, I think a #7-9 pick is more realistic. JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macaroni Posted December 19, 2005 Share Posted December 19, 2005 Yes, the tiebreaker is the opponents winning percentage - or in other words: (opponents total wins) / (opponents total games.) Since everyone's (opponents total games) is 256, you can simplify the tiebreaker to "opponents total wins." Anyhow, the point of my post is that Buffalo doesn't exactly have much of lead in the "strength of schedule" tiebreaker - contrary to what some people were projecting last week. Moreover, due to a couple of factors, such as New England playing two division games down the stretch, the Bills' opponents have a few more "locked in" wins coming up in the next two weeks than our competitors. So, while its probably not impossible for us to end up with a Top 5 pick - given all the things that can happen down the stretch, I think a #7-9 pick is more realistic. JDG 537138[/snapback] What's your problem with a #7 - #9 pick ........ don't you think that's high enough to get a quality undersized speed reciever??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted December 19, 2005 Share Posted December 19, 2005 Well the good news is that is plenty high enough to draft someone who could really help us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BravinSeattle Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 Yes, the tiebreaker is the opponents winning percentage - or in other words: (opponents total wins) / (opponents total games.) Since everyone's (opponents total games) is 256, you can simplify the tiebreaker to "opponents total wins." Anyhow, the point of my post is that Buffalo doesn't exactly have much of lead in the "strength of schedule" tiebreaker - contrary to what some people were projecting last week. Moreover, due to a couple of factors, such as New England playing two division games down the stretch, the Bills' opponents have a few more "locked in" wins coming up in the next two weeks than our competitors. So, while its probably not impossible for us to end up with a Top 5 pick - given all the things that can happen down the stretch, I think a #7-9 pick is more realistic. JDG 537138[/snapback] I think given all the things that can happen down the stretch we could end up with a pick from 3rd to 9th. If we get the 3rd pick we could trade the pick to a team who wants Leinart. Any of the players projected from 3-9 would have immediate impact on this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted December 20, 2005 Author Share Posted December 20, 2005 I think given all the things that can happen down the stretch we could end up with a pick from 3rd to 9th. If we get the 3rd pick we could trade the pick to a team who wants Leinart. Any of the players projected from 3-9 would have immediate impact on this team. 537501[/snapback] You should change that "would" to "could." I can guarantee that not all of the players picked in the Top 10 will immediately impact their teams' performance on the field next year - or indeed, ever. JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimBob2232 Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 Tennessee - 113 (Plays MIA, JAX) Detroit - 113 (PIT, NO) Arizona - 113 (PHI, IND) Buffalo - 113 (CIN, NYJ) NY Jets - 116 (NE, BUF) Baltimore - 118 (GB, MIN, CLE) Now, if buffalo goes 4-12...the jets get 5 wins. You have to assume detroit will beat NO. Baltimore is crushing GB at the moment, so assume 5 wins for them. That leaves Ten, Buf and arizona as the only teams with 4 wins. Unfortunatly GB is losing...so they stay ahead of us for now. They can beat Chicago, and seattle should be resting week 17. I honestly think, SOS in our favor, the draft goes like this. 1) SF - Bush 2) Hou -D'Brick or trade down 3) NO-Lienert 4) GB 5) Buf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 Lots of people are convinced that the Bills are going to have a very high draft pick. Unfortunately, I don't think that is necessarily the case. Accounting of all 16 opponents on the schedule, the current draft standings are like this: 1/2: Houston and San Francisco (in some order) 3: NY Jets 4: New Orleans If Baltimore wins tonight, Green Bay is #5. If the Packers win, they are #11. Here are the tiebreakers for the 4-loss teams: Tennessee - 113 Detroit - 113 Arizona - 113 Buffalo - 113 NY Jets - 116 Baltimore - 118 So, looking at these numbers, it seems safe to pencil us in for about #7-9 pick. JDG 537024[/snapback] You're probably right. I know it was frustrating after the 2003 abortion of a season to finish 6-10 & draft only 13th... some years are worse to suck in than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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