Draft Situation

[JimBob2232]

I decided it was time to take a look at the draft order for next year. Here is what I found out.

 

Executive Summary: If Buffalo loses out, the worst they can pick is 6th (Based on current strength of schedule). They move up the draft order by either 1)winning a coin flip with NYJ or NYJ winning one of their remaining non-buffalo games (NE/MIA), 2)Green Bay winning 2 of their final 4 games, 3)San Fransisco winning 2 of their final 3 games 4) New Orleans winning one of their remaining games (ATL/CAR/DET/TB), or 5) Houston winning out. If all 5 happen, buffalo CAN pick first.

 

Details:

 

I took the worst teams in the league, presently. (in no specific order)

 

Buffalo (4-9)

Jets (3-10)

Balt (4-9)

Cleveland (4-9)

Ten (4-9)

Houston (1-12)

Oakland (4-9)

Detroit (4-8)

GB (2-10)

NO (3-9)

ARZ (4-9)

SF (2-10)

 

(Note: I left all 5 win teams out of this calculation, as buffalo is assumed to lose out for this calculation and thus all 5 win teams will be below us in the draft order)

 

I then assumed each of the above teams would lose all their games against teams not on the list (to be conservative as to buffalos draft position).

 

Buffalo has the worst strength of schedule of any team on the above list (NYJ is tied).

 

So, taking SOS into account, the draft order, would be as follows.

1) Houston

2) SF (GB has very good SOS)

3) GB

4) NO

5-6) BUF/NYJ (Coin Flip)

7-10) Balt/Ten/Arz and one of Oak/Cle (NOTE: Oak and CLE play each other, one will have 5 wins and slide down to the 5 win group)

 

Buffalo cannot pick lower than 6th.

 

I then looked at scenerios that would have to play out for Buffalo to move up the draft order.

 

Houston would need to sweep Jax/Arz/SF to fall below Buffalo

 

If GB can win over Detroit tonight, and knock off Either Baltimore, Chicago or a resting seattle week 17, they would also join the 4 win club and slide below buffalo due to SOS.

 

SF would need to win 2 of 3 against Jax/StL/Hou to fall below buffalo.

 

In addition, Buffalo would move up to sole position in the top 5 if the jets can knock off Miami or New England.

 

If NO wins one more game (ATL/CAR/DET/TB) they also fall below buffalo

 

So, if your keeping track at home, Root for GB to win tonight, and another game this season.

 

So, in summary, if buffalo loses out, the worst they will pick (assuming SOS does not change..) is 6th, the best they can pick is #1. The strength of schedule (or lack thereof) is really in buffalos favor this time.