KOKBILLS Posted December 6, 2005 Share Posted December 6, 2005 There are a number of objective assumptions that can be reached from our rank among NFL teams in performance by quarter. Patterns tell us much about the team we’re fielding and the conclusions IMO are clear. Here’s some critical patterns from the 2005 Buffalo Bills: Our defense has opened games allowing the 2nd least number of points in the league during the first quarter. We drop precipitously from there to 22nd in the second quarter before getting a halftime breather and rising to 14th in the third before falling all the way to 26th in the 4th quarter. Offensively we open up the first quarter as the 7th best scoring offense and then fall to 22nd, 30th and then last in fourth quarter scoring. The defensive numbers are an easy read- we open each half well and quickly fade. The rank of 2nd overall holding our opponents in the first quarter suggests good preparation during the week and a well designed strategy entering the game. The fall in the second quarter and fourth quarters is the classic symptom of personnel issues along the defensive line. The graph clearly supports the supposition that we simply don’t have the horses in the middle to carry a defense. And when you get tired in the middle it’s really of little consequence the quality of the balance of players in a defense, you will fail. See: Sunday. Offensively there’s an inverse outcome to having a poor middle- you’ll simply be a poor starting team out of the chute. Based upon all the squawking about our offensive line you’d expect our offense to be poor initially and throughout the game, the classic symptoms of a weak OLine. But that’s simply not what is happening to the 2005 Buffalo Bills. Our offense has come out after the Pledge of Allegience and scored more points than all but 6 other teams in the league during the first quarter. The reality is you simply don’t do this with a poor offensive line. There is much to learn about our offense in studying the scoring trends by quarter and seeing the steady plummeting from a top ten offense right down to last in the league by the fourth. Here’s some fair assumptions we can make based upon our offensive scoring graph: A) It tells us the background staff who handles “quality control” for the Bills are doing their jobs effectively. It also tells us the offensive coaching staff- under the approval of the head coach- are doing a good job in preparation. They’re devising strong opening game plans and getting the offensive players ready to play leading up to the game. B) Most importantly it tells us our offensive coaching and those they answer to are failing dreadfully on the sidelines on Sundays. They have the talent necessary to outperform 25 other offenses league-wide when having the advantage of all their research, film study and preparation; yet in real time their strategies each week are uncovered in our opening drives and opposing coaching staffs very simply are beating us mentally as they adjust to our game plan. We’re good enough physically to score with regularity, and this is proven by our rank as the 7th BEST OFFENSE IN THE NFL during the first quarter. Where we fail is when we have to do it over the course of the game. Fans will be begging for Tight Ends and OTs and other players on the offensive side of the ball this coming off-season, even though this would directly contradict the greatest needs of this team based upon our performance throughout games this season. If the team is to find any level of improvement in 2006 the focus on off-season personnel acquisitions must HEAVILY favor the defensive side of the ball. At the same time it will matter little if it is the same decision-makers on the sidelines and in the box calling the game- our offensive coaching is unquestionably failing us every week. Whether heads must roll is the biggest question, IMO at least one head must be sacrificed and responsibility for failing us should end up at the feet of the OC. Most good OC’s with a top 10 first quarter offense will end up with an even better rating by the 4th quarter, ours instead falls to the bottom of the league. The bodies are there- sure we can add some wrinkles and depth, but it’s the decisionmakers doing the substantial damage to this offense at this time. The stats simply show that we have a good enough OLine and balance of our O to compete- yet our coaches are failing us all over the course of the games on Sunday. New OC + big time defensive personnel additons= a better 2006. 521597[/snapback] Great Post... The only thing I can add (seeing as though I'm a freaking broken record after Sunday) is the fact that MM is supposed to be an Offensive HC and we all know he took the Play Calling away from Clements...So what good will it do to can the OC when in actuality the HC is the OC... Mularkey is the Coaching problem IMHO...He was not ready for this Job and I'm not sure he'll ever be more than a barely average HC unless he has absolutely great personnel...And we all know that is not happening any time soon... But thanks for the info and the Homework...It's much appreciated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeBill Posted December 6, 2005 Share Posted December 6, 2005 So... 1. The Bills are good at studying for the game, but when other teams adjust... we just can't keep up. This is evidence of poor coaches who do their homework, not good coaches. 2. The Bills players start out strong in offense and defense, and then fade and become the worst team in the league by the end of the game. This shows players who are talented, but very low on conditioning. And get tired easily. 3. This Bills are tops at the beginning and terrible at the end. Too bad ALL games are decided at the end. Indicitive of a 5-11 record the Bills will end with. It's sad that from week to week, I don't really care if the Bills win or lose anymore. This reminds me of Donahoe's FIRST YEAR in Buffalo. (Okay, to be honest, I would love to see Buffalo spank the Patriots next week... but that's because I hate them Patriots, not necessarily because I want to see the Bills end with a better record.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted December 6, 2005 Share Posted December 6, 2005 There are a number of objective assumptions that can be reached from our rank among NFL teams in performance by quarter. Patterns tell us much about the team we’re fielding and the conclusions IMO are clear. Here’s some critical patterns from the 2005 Buffalo Bills: Our defense has opened games allowing the 2nd least number of points in the league during the first quarter. We drop precipitously from there to 22nd in the second quarter before getting a halftime breather and rising to 14th in the third before falling all the way to 26th in the 4th quarter. Offensively we open up the first quarter as the 7th best scoring offense and then fall to 22nd, 30th and then last in fourth quarter scoring. The defensive numbers are an easy read- we open each half well and quickly fade. The rank of 2nd overall holding our opponents in the first quarter suggests good preparation during the week and a well designed strategy entering the game. The fall in the second quarter and fourth quarters is the classic symptom of personnel issues along the defensive line. The graph clearly supports the supposition that we simply don’t have the horses in the middle to carry a defense. And when you get tired in the middle it’s really of little consequence the quality of the balance of players in a defense, you will fail. See: Sunday. Offensively there’s an inverse outcome to having a poor middle- you’ll simply be a poor starting team out of the chute. Based upon all the squawking about our offensive line you’d expect our offense to be poor initially and throughout the game, the classic symptoms of a weak OLine. But that’s simply not what is happening to the 2005 Buffalo Bills. Our offense has come out after the Pledge of Allegience and scored more points than all but 6 other teams in the league during the first quarter. The reality is you simply don’t do this with a poor offensive line. There is much to learn about our offense in studying the scoring trends by quarter and seeing the steady plummeting from a top ten offense right down to last in the league by the fourth. Here’s some fair assumptions we can make based upon our offensive scoring graph: A) It tells us the background staff who handles “quality control” for the Bills are doing their jobs effectively. It also tells us the offensive coaching staff- under the approval of the head coach- are doing a good job in preparation. They’re devising strong opening game plans and getting the offensive players ready to play leading up to the game. B) Most importantly it tells us our offensive coaching and those they answer to are failing dreadfully on the sidelines on Sundays. They have the talent necessary to outperform 25 other offenses league-wide when having the advantage of all their research, film study and preparation; yet in real time their strategies each week are uncovered in our opening drives and opposing coaching staffs very simply are beating us mentally as they adjust to our game plan. We’re good enough physically to score with regularity, and this is proven by our rank as the 7th BEST OFFENSE IN THE NFL during the first quarter. Where we fail is when we have to do it over the course of the game. Fans will be begging for Tight Ends and OTs and other players on the offensive side of the ball this coming off-season, even though this would directly contradict the greatest needs of this team based upon our performance throughout games this season. If the team is to find any level of improvement in 2006 the focus on off-season personnel acquisitions must HEAVILY favor the defensive side of the ball. At the same time it will matter little if it is the same decision-makers on the sidelines and in the box calling the game- our offensive coaching is unquestionably failing us every week. Whether heads must roll is the biggest question, IMO at least one head must be sacrificed and responsibility for failing us should end up at the feet of the OC. Most good OC’s with a top 10 first quarter offense will end up with an even better rating by the 4th quarter, ours instead falls to the bottom of the league. The bodies are there- sure we can add some wrinkles and depth, but it’s the decisionmakers doing the substantial damage to this offense at this time. The stats simply show that we have a good enough OLine and balance of our O to compete- yet our coaches are failing us all over the course of the games on Sunday. New OC + big time defensive personnel additons= a better 2006. 521597[/snapback] Your post omits the important factor of conditioning. Williams has been injured/out of shape for at least half of his stay in Buffalo, perhaps longer. Have you really focused on Anderson? As the game winds down, he can barely get out of his stance. He also loses concentration and jumps. Teague is always weak. Assuming CV is healthy, there are 3 glaring weak spots for opposing defenses to key on. One was removed and replaced with a rookie. Competitive indeed. You are correct about the situation at DT. You have been from day one. When the Bills were still in contention, you even correctly stated that there was no hope. The importance of strong DTs cannot be overstated. That said, I remind you of the Ted Washington/Pat Williams Bills. They were rock solid at DT. The front 7 was the best in the league, or close enough. They, liked this team lacked solidity up front on the other side and the team faltered. This team is a house of straw. Passes on 1st and goal at the 5? Roscoe Parrish? He reminds me of Diana Ross. Adams? Williams? Whining Little Erica Moulds? Mean Joe Green in his prime and a pre-drug Leon Lett would probably make us competitive, but we will not go beyond this without building an OL and cutting the cancer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted December 6, 2005 Share Posted December 6, 2005 Our defense has opened games allowing the 2nd least number of points in the league during the first quarter. We drop precipitously from there to 22nd in the second quarter before getting a halftime breather and rising to 14th in the third before falling all the way to 26th in the 4th quarter. Offensively we open up the first quarter as the 7th best scoring offense and then fall to 22nd, 30th and then last in fourth quarter scoring. 521597[/snapback] We are a team that cannot play 60 minutes of football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKC Posted December 6, 2005 Author Share Posted December 6, 2005 Your post omits the important factor of conditioning. Williams has been injured/out of shape for at least half of his stay in Buffalo, perhaps longer. Have you really focused on Anderson? As the game winds down, he can barely get out of his stance. He also loses concentration and jumps. Teague is always weak. Assuming CV is healthy, there are 3 glaring weak spots for opposing defenses to key on. One was removed and replaced with a rookie. Competitive indeed. You are correct about the situation at DT. You have been from day one. When the Bills were still in contention, you even correctly stated that there was no hope. The importance of strong DTs cannot be overstated. That said, I remind you of the Ted Washington/Pat Williams Bills. They were rock solid at DT. The front 7 was the best in the league, or close enough. They, liked this team lacked solidity up front on the other side and the team faltered. This team is a house of straw. Passes on 1st and goal at the 5? Roscoe Parrish? He reminds me of Diana Ross. Adams? Williams? Whining Little Erica Moulds? Mean Joe Green in his prime and a pre-drug Leon Lett would probably make us competitive, but we will not go beyond this without building an OL and cutting the cancer. 522074[/snapback] Peters had a better game when facing Jason Taylor than a lot of "real" OTs around the league, and Gandy is one of the best cost/performance ratio LTs in the league. To me it makes no football sense in the Cap era to replace Gandy when we have true weaknesses elsewhere; Gandy is arguably a major strength considering he uses minimal cap space. Williams is the opposite end of that argument and no bench warmer can eat ths space he would consume next year so he should expect a big Sayonara. The caveat to this though is that I expect he'll end up somewhere on a productive line for many years to come and become one of those "we should have never let him..." names, but the reality is we MUST let him move on. Benny stinks and will be joining Big Mike in the Bon Voyage party. Conjures up images of those two in a canoe ;-) That leaves us with a OG spot to fill (once again!) AFAIC. Conditioning could be some factor in the offensive ineptitude, but it doesn't answer the question of the fast drop-off after the first quarter. Even a slob on an OLineman (see Benny Anderson) can get 2 quarters our of his carcass. Our team fades after the first 15 minutes. It's coaching, coaching, coaching. We can script a great opening quarter but when asked to actually COACH as the game unfolds we're getting beat. No matter if some small percentage is conditioning and some other small percentage is talent, the reality is borne out by the performance drop every 15 minutes- the VAST majority of the offensive problem on this team is the offensive coaching. The most objective measure we have is "how does our team do when measured exactly in point production against the other teams in the league?" We have only 6 teams better then us after 15 minutes, but 21 better during the second 30 minutes, and 29 better in the third quarter- we fall to dead last in the league for the 15 minutes prior to the final whistle. This isn't a rating system, it's not a subjective and elusive number with a million variables- it is the absolutely objective measure of what our team does in direct, head to head comparisons with the other 31 teams in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted December 6, 2005 Share Posted December 6, 2005 Peters had a better game when facing Jason Taylor than a lot of "real" OTs around the league, and Gandy is one of the best cost/performance ratio LTs in the league. To me it makes no football sense in the Cap era to replace Gandy when we have true weaknesses elsewhere; Gandy is arguably a major strength considering he uses minimal cap space. Williams is the opposite end of that argument and no bench warmer can eat ths space he would consume next year so he should expect a big Sayonara. The caveat to this though is that I expect he'll end up somewhere on a productive line for many years to come and become one of those "we should have never let him..." names, but the reality is we MUST let him move on. Benny stinks and will be joining Big Mike in the Bon Voyage party. Conjures up images of those two in a canoe ;-) That leaves us with a OG spot to fill (once again!) AFAIC. Conditioning could be some factor in the offensive ineptitude, but it doesn't answer the question of the fast drop-off after the first quarter. Even a slob on an OLineman (see Benny Anderson) can get 2 quarters our of his carcass. Our team fades after the first 15 minutes. It's coaching, coaching, coaching. We can script a great opening quarter but when asked to actually COACH as the game unfolds we're getting beat. No matter if some small percentage is conditioning and some other small percentage is talent, the reality is borne out by the performance drop every 15 minutes- the VAST majority of the offensive problem on this team is the offensive coaching. The most objective measure we have is "how does our team do when measured exactly in point production against the other teams in the league?" We have only 6 teams better then us after 15 minutes, but 21 better during the second 30 minutes, and 29 better in the third quarter- we fall to dead last in the league for the 15 minutes prior to the final whistle. This isn't a rating system, it's not a subjective and elusive number with a million variables- it is the absolutely objective measure of what our team does in direct, head to head comparisons with the other 31 teams in the NFL. 522356[/snapback] I have softened my stance on Gandy which is why he was not mentioned above as a liability. He is less physical than my ideal LT, bu he really seems to know what he is doing out there. Still, I respectfully assert that the Bills are a cold weather team. They need maulers up front. I make the case that nothing else works in a cold, windy football stadium. Many factors will enter into what the Bills should/will do, including what, if any free agents we can get, where we draft, etc. For instance, if somehow (to the tune of making him the highest paid guard in the NFL), we were able to grab Hutchinson, I would be OK with an early DT, providing of course he can play. Either way, I think that you and I are on the same page about where the help is needed. Call me a fool, but I remain positive in terms of the Bills chances in 06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKC Posted December 6, 2005 Author Share Posted December 6, 2005 I think that you and I are on the same page about where the help is needed. Call me a fool, but I remain positive in terms of the Bills chances in 06. 522410[/snapback] As awful a taste as '05 will leave in my mouth due to the defensive personnel misteps, we can remedy our ills very quickly with attention to our trouble spots. There's as much talent on this team as there is on most of the contenders this year, it's simply the distribution of that talent that has hurt us along with poor coaching on the sidelines. Both of these can be corrected in a hurry, if Ralph insists in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted December 6, 2005 Share Posted December 6, 2005 Peters had a better game when facing Jason Taylor than a lot of "real" OTs around the league, and Gandy is one of the best cost/performance ratio LTs in the league. To me it makes no football sense in the Cap era to replace Gandy when we have true weaknesses elsewhere; Gandy is arguably a major strength considering he uses minimal cap space. Williams is the opposite end of that argument and no bench warmer can eat ths space he would consume next year so he should expect a big Sayonara. The caveat to this though is that I expect he'll end up somewhere on a productive line for many years to come and become one of those "we should have never let him..." names, but the reality is we MUST let him move on. Benny stinks and will be joining Big Mike in the Bon Voyage party. Conjures up images of those two in a canoe ;-) That leaves us with a OG spot to fill (once again!) AFAIC. Conditioning could be some factor in the offensive ineptitude, but it doesn't answer the question of the fast drop-off after the first quarter. Even a slob on an OLineman (see Benny Anderson) can get 2 quarters our of his carcass. Our team fades after the first 15 minutes. It's coaching, coaching, coaching. We can script a great opening quarter but when asked to actually COACH as the game unfolds we're getting beat. No matter if some small percentage is conditioning and some other small percentage is talent, the reality is borne out by the performance drop every 15 minutes- the VAST majority of the offensive problem on this team is the offensive coaching. The most objective measure we have is "how does our team do when measured exactly in point production against the other teams in the league?" We have only 6 teams better then us after 15 minutes, but 21 better during the second 30 minutes, and 29 better in the third quarter- we fall to dead last in the league for the 15 minutes prior to the final whistle. This isn't a rating system, it's not a subjective and elusive number with a million variables- it is the absolutely objective measure of what our team does in direct, head to head comparisons with the other 31 teams in the NFL. 522356[/snapback] About that OG Spot...How about we go out and get a guy that has been Outstanding at his Position since he was a Freshman in College? An OG who has Started 44 straight Games now in the NFL (and has Started all of his 52 Pro Games when healthy), and started 46 out of his 47 College games... Steve Hutchinson is a UFA in 2006... OK I'm a Michigan fan but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted December 6, 2005 Share Posted December 6, 2005 About that OG Spot...How about we go out and get a guy that has been Outstanding at his Position since he was a Freshman in College? An OG who has Started 44 straight Games now in the NFL (and has Started all of his 52 Pro Games when healthy), and started 46 out of his 47 College games... Steve Hutchinson is a UFA in 2006... OK I'm a Michigan fan but... 522432[/snapback] Michigan fan? What do you think of the OG that is being touted from UM now. Wentz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts