AKC Posted December 5, 2005 Posted December 5, 2005 There are a number of objective assumptions that can be reached from our rank among NFL teams in performance by quarter. Patterns tell us much about the team we’re fielding and the conclusions IMO are clear. Here’s some critical patterns from the 2005 Buffalo Bills: Our defense has opened games allowing the 2nd least number of points in the league during the first quarter. We drop precipitously from there to 22nd in the second quarter before getting a halftime breather and rising to 14th in the third before falling all the way to 26th in the 4th quarter. Offensively we open up the first quarter as the 7th best scoring offense and then fall to 22nd, 30th and then last in fourth quarter scoring. The defensive numbers are an easy read- we open each half well and quickly fade. The rank of 2nd overall holding our opponents in the first quarter suggests good preparation during the week and a well designed strategy entering the game. The fall in the second quarter and fourth quarters is the classic symptom of personnel issues along the defensive line. The graph clearly supports the supposition that we simply don’t have the horses in the middle to carry a defense. And when you get tired in the middle it’s really of little consequence the quality of the balance of players in a defense, you will fail. See: Sunday. Offensively there’s an inverse outcome to having a poor middle- you’ll simply be a poor starting team out of the chute. Based upon all the squawking about our offensive line you’d expect our offense to be poor initially and throughout the game, the classic symptoms of a weak OLine. But that’s simply not what is happening to the 2005 Buffalo Bills. Our offense has come out after the Pledge of Allegience and scored more points than all but 6 other teams in the league during the first quarter. The reality is you simply don’t do this with a poor offensive line. There is much to learn about our offense in studying the scoring trends by quarter and seeing the steady plummeting from a top ten offense right down to last in the league by the fourth. Here’s some fair assumptions we can make based upon our offensive scoring graph: A) It tells us the background staff who handles “quality control” for the Bills are doing their jobs effectively. It also tells us the offensive coaching staff- under the approval of the head coach- are doing a good job in preparation. They’re devising strong opening game plans and getting the offensive players ready to play leading up to the game. B) Most importantly it tells us our offensive coaching and those they answer to are failing dreadfully on the sidelines on Sundays. They have the talent necessary to outperform 25 other offenses league-wide when having the advantage of all their research, film study and preparation; yet in real time their strategies each week are uncovered in our opening drives and opposing coaching staffs very simply are beating us mentally as they adjust to our game plan. We’re good enough physically to score with regularity, and this is proven by our rank as the 7th BEST OFFENSE IN THE NFL during the first quarter. Where we fail is when we have to do it over the course of the game. Fans will be begging for Tight Ends and OTs and other players on the offensive side of the ball this coming off-season, even though this would directly contradict the greatest needs of this team based upon our performance throughout games this season. If the team is to find any level of improvement in 2006 the focus on off-season personnel acquisitions must HEAVILY favor the defensive side of the ball. At the same time it will matter little if it is the same decision-makers on the sidelines and in the box calling the game- our offensive coaching is unquestionably failing us every week. Whether heads must roll is the biggest question, IMO at least one head must be sacrificed and responsibility for failing us should end up at the feet of the OC. Most good OC’s with a top 10 first quarter offense will end up with an even better rating by the 4th quarter, ours instead falls to the bottom of the league. The bodies are there- sure we can add some wrinkles and depth, but it’s the decisionmakers doing the substantial damage to this offense at this time. The stats simply show that we have a good enough OLine and balance of our O to compete- yet our coaches are failing us all over the course of the games on Sunday. New OC + big time defensive personnel additons= a better 2006.
stuckincincy Posted December 5, 2005 Posted December 5, 2005 Looks like they's been neglecting their jumping jacks and not finishing their Wheaties, and get tuckered out.
Dawgg Posted December 5, 2005 Posted December 5, 2005 THANK YOU. This is exactly correct. Most people are quick to cast blame on Jerry Gray and his defense but the reality is the personnel just is not there. The boneheaded playcalling on the offensive side of the ball adds to the defensive problems as drives are rarely sustained. There are a number of objective assumptions that can be reached from our rank among NFL teams in performance by quarter. Patterns tell us much about the team we’re fielding and the conclusions IMO are clear. Here’s some critical patterns from the 2005 Buffalo Bills: Our defense has opened games allowing the 2nd least number of points in the league during the first quarter. We drop precipitously from there to 22nd in the second quarter before getting a halftime breather and rising to 14th in the third before falling all the way to 26th in the 4th quarter. Offensively we open up the first quarter as the 7th best scoring offense and then fall to 22nd, 30th and then last in fourth quarter scoring. The defensive numbers are an easy read- we open each half well and quickly fade. The rank of 2nd overall holding our opponents in the first quarter suggests good preparation during the week and a well designed strategy entering the game. The fall in the second quarter and fourth quarters is the classic symptom of personnel issues along the defensive line. The graph clearly supports the supposition that we simply don’t have the horses in the middle to carry a defense. And when you get tired in the middle it’s really of little consequence the quality of the balance of players in a defense, you will fail. See: Sunday. Offensively there’s an inverse outcome to having a poor middle- you’ll simply be a poor starting team out of the chute. Based upon all the squawking about our offensive line you’d expect our offense to be poor initially and throughout the game, the classic symptoms of a weak OLine. But that’s simply not what is happening to the 2005 Buffalo Bills. Our offense has come out after the Pledge of Allegience and scored more points than all but 6 other teams in the league during the first quarter. The reality is you simply don’t do this with a poor offensive line. There is much to learn about our offense in studying the scoring trends by quarter and seeing the steady plummeting from a top ten offense right down to last in the league by the fourth. Here’s some fair assumptions we can make based upon our offensive scoring graph: A) It tells us the background staff who handles “quality control” for the Bills are doing their jobs effectively. It also tells us the offensive coaching staff- under the approval of the head coach- are doing a good job in preparation. They’re devising strong opening game plans and getting the offensive players ready to play leading up to the game. B) Most importantly it tells us our offensive coaching and those they answer to are failing dreadfully on the sidelines on Sundays. They have the talent necessary to outperform 25 other offenses league-wide when having the advantage of all their research, film study and preparation; yet in real time their strategies each week are uncovered in our opening drives and opposing coaching staffs very simply are beating us mentally as they adjust to our game plan. We’re good enough physically to score with regularity, and this is proven by our rank as the 7th BEST OFFENSE IN THE NFL during the first quarter. Where we fail is when we have to do it over the course of the game. Fans will be begging for Tight Ends and OTs and other players on the offensive side of the ball this coming off-season, even though this would directly contradict the greatest needs of this team based upon our performance throughout games this season. If the team is to find any level of improvement in 2006 the focus on off-season personnel acquisitions must HEAVILY favor the defensive side of the ball. At the same time it will matter little if it is the same decision-makers on the sidelines and in the box calling the game- our offensive coaching is unquestionably failing us every week. Whether heads must roll is the biggest question, IMO at least one head must be sacrificed and responsibility for failing us should end up at the feet of the OC. Most good OC’s with a top 10 first quarter offense will end up with an even better rating by the 4th quarter, ours instead falls to the bottom of the league. The bodies are there- sure we can add some wrinkles and depth, but it’s the decisionmakers doing the substantial damage to this offense at this time. The stats simply show that we have a good enough OLine and balance of our O to compete- yet our coaches are failing us all over the course of the games on Sunday. New OC + big time defensive personnel additons= a better 2006. 521597[/snapback]
Larry Playfair Posted December 5, 2005 Posted December 5, 2005 What about the fact that defenses adjust to us, and we cant seem to make any subsequent adjustments on the fly to allow us to continue with our game plan?
Fezmid Posted December 5, 2005 Posted December 5, 2005 We’re good enough physically to score with regularity, and this is proven by our rank as the 7th BEST OFFENSE IN THE NFL during the first quarter. Where we fail is when we have to do it over the course of the game. You sure about that stat? Yesterday, the announcers said we were *2nd* in the NFL in points-for in the 1st quarter. We scored 21 yesterday, so I'd assume we're no worse than 2nd now... Unless the announcers were wrong yesterday; wouldn't be the first tiem. Or unelss I misread the screen, also wouldn't be the first time. Good points though. DW
34-78-83 Posted December 5, 2005 Posted December 5, 2005 Excellent post AKC. I also agree with what Stuckincincy says. The offensive issues are at least partially because of conditioning and poor sunday coaching. Though I do still feel there are issues at G and C that need to be addressed. Defensively, I think you're right about as well ... and a new DT will be a priority, along with possibly a SAM backer and a Strong safety for depth.
finknottle Posted December 5, 2005 Posted December 5, 2005 :Our defense has opened games allowing the 2nd least number of points in the league during the first quarter. We drop precipitously from there to 22nd in the second quarter before getting a halftime breather and rising to 14th in the third before falling all the way to 26th in the 4th quarter. : 521597[/snapback] Good analysis, but let me temper it with the following observation: We opened a disporportionately large number of games with a long reasonably successfull drive. That leaves less time for the defense to be on the field in the quarter to score. Because of our 'free' drive, there is a disparity between our two times of possession which decreases as the half goes on. So I'm really claiming two things: 1. There should be a good correspondence between the number of times you start the game with the ball and your 1st quarter offensive and defensive ranks, and 2. The Bills started with the ball more often than not. The second should be easy to verify... (I'm going by my impression, havn't actually checked it)
Kelly the Dog Posted December 5, 2005 Posted December 5, 2005 And last year, I believe the defense often started out slow, and then was by far the best team in the league in the third quarter. IIRC, they didnt give up one touchdown the entire year after the "halftime adjustments". So that can only mean one thing, and I have no idea what the fukk it is.
justnzane Posted December 5, 2005 Posted December 5, 2005 Bring Back Rusty!!!!!!! 521611[/snapback] thank you... the bills die in the 4th not because of talent but because of conditioning. I know the feelin when thte other team is in better shape and you can't stop them because of it. it is a terrrible feeling and the bills are suffering immensely from it. The strength and conditioning coach needs to be canned, along with tom clements. the bills lack of gas in the 2nd combined with suspect playcalling have combined for at least 3 losses this year. I don't know about you but 7-5 looks much better than 4-8.
Sisyphean Bills Posted December 5, 2005 Posted December 5, 2005 Maybe they should script the entire game on offense!
SACTOBILLSFAN Posted December 6, 2005 Posted December 6, 2005 You sure about that stat? Yesterday, the announcers said we were *2nd* in the NFL in points-for in the 1st quarter. We scored 21 yesterday, so I'd assume we're no worse than 2nd now... Unless the announcers were wrong yesterday; wouldn't be the first tiem. Or unelss I misread the screen, also wouldn't be the first time. Good points though. DW 521618[/snapback] total offensive production is based on yardage...not points
Fezmid Posted December 6, 2005 Posted December 6, 2005 total offensive production is based on yardage...not points 521732[/snapback] But points-for is a better indicator, no? That's what everyone says when we had the #2 ranked defense in the NFL anyway... Anyway, thanks for the clarification. CW
AKC Posted December 6, 2005 Author Posted December 6, 2005 You sure about that stat? Yesterday, the announcers said we were *2nd* in the NFL in points-for in the 1st quarter. We scored 21 yesterday, so I'd assume we're no worse than 2nd now... Unless the announcers were wrong yesterday; wouldn't be the first tiem. Or unelss I misread the screen, also wouldn't be the first time. 521618[/snapback] I heard the same thing from the game crew but I got different numbers from this source: Stats I haven't analyzed their acuracy but the detail seems consistent.
AKC Posted December 6, 2005 Author Posted December 6, 2005 Most people are quick to cast blame on Jerry Gray and his defense but the reality is the personnel just is not there. 521608[/snapback] I'm not sure Anderson and Bannon would crack the USC starting lineup.
AKC Posted December 6, 2005 Author Posted December 6, 2005 thank you... the bills die in the 4th not because of talent but because of conditioning. I know the feelin when thte other team is in better shape and you can't stop them because of it. it is a terrrible feeling and the bills are suffering immensely from it. The strength and conditioning coach needs to be canned, along with tom clements. the bills lack of gas in the 2nd combined with suspect playcalling have combined for at least 3 losses this year. I don't know about you but 7-5 looks much better than 4-8. 521696[/snapback] If you look at rosters like Indy, there are 5 guys in their DT rotation, any of whom would be an instant starter on our team. We have lesser talent at the top of the depth chart and laughable talent on the bottom. The best personnel staffs around the league have built large, high quality rotations in their interior- the Bill's have neglected one of the absolute key positions in the modern game. It's time to change this.
Orton's Arm Posted December 6, 2005 Posted December 6, 2005 Excellent initial post, AKC. But there is another way of looking at the trends you're describing. I've noticed that the offensive line seems to be at its best in the first drive or two of games. Maybe the players on the line are themselves not that good, but during the week McNally finds tricks for them to mask this weakness by exploiting the tendencies of other teams. These tricks work for a drive or two, after which the other team starts to figure them out. After that, the winner of the line of scrimmage will be the team with more talent--in other words, not Buffalo.
34-78-83 Posted December 6, 2005 Posted December 6, 2005 And last year, I believe the defense often started out slow, and then was by far the best team in the league in the third quarter. IIRC, they didnt give up one touchdown the entire year after the "halftime adjustments". So that can only mean one thing, and I have no idea what the fukk it is. 521693[/snapback] I believe what you might be refereing to is atleast in high correlation with stamina, whether that means wearing down over the course of the game due to lesser DT play/talent, being on the field for too long caused by too many 3 and outs or just general conditioning.
nodnarb Posted December 6, 2005 Posted December 6, 2005 AKC: Interesting post. I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter. Last year, our 2nd half defense was what, #1? The adjustments were great, and I always figured Chuck Lester had a lot to do with that and Jerry got all the credit. I don't know what's different about this year, other than Pat Williams and Spikes, but the 4th quarter adjustments and playcalling on D has been atrocious. I'd like to be a fly on the wall in these coach's meetings. And yea. Obviously we're not able to make the right adjustments at halftime on offense, either. Look at JP's 1st half vs. 2nd half QB rating. Whoo-ey.
kasper13 Posted December 6, 2005 Posted December 6, 2005 The only rankings that matter are wins and losses. The rest can get buried out in the backyard.
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