Is Willis really the best Draft move TD

[Kipers Hair]

I've always felt that acquiring Spikes was the move that was the most in touch with the heartbeat of the fans and has provided the most value in Td's tenure here. I suppose with this that much now is depending on the level of TKO's recovery in order to remain TD's best move.

517555[/snapback]

 

This is the move that put fans in the seats. I think Willis may have been TD's most daring move. While we don't know how good he'll be, moving to get JP may have been his best move. Standing pat and taking Clements was not a bad one either...

[Simon]

Standing pat and taking Clements was not a bad one either...

Actually he traded down like 9 spots and swiped Clements at around #22. I was calling for him to take Nate at our original spot (#13) but the sumbitch not only got him 2 hours later but somehow snagged two other good players in the process.

[Tortured Soul]

While he was head of scouting for the Stillers, he picked up Gregg Lloyd, Brent Jones, Hardy Nickerson, John Jackson, Merril Hoge and Justin Strelczyk in the 5th round or later.

517667[/snapback]

Where were those moves for us? We haven't gotten anything past the fourth round.

[34-78-83]

Where were those moves for us?  We haven't gotten anything past the fourth round.

517708[/snapback]

 

Peters, Baker, and Greer

(not spectacular, but solid with potential, and all three lasted beyond the 7 round Draft.)

[smokinandjokin]

Drafting the versatile linebacker/safety/special teamer Coy Wire, who somehow slipped to the 3rd round, was TD's best draft move ever.

 

[Simon]

Where were those moves for us?  We haven't gotten anything past the fourth round.

517708[/snapback]

 

In addition to the multiple UDFA's the Bills have secured during Donahoe's tenure, Justin Bannan and Lauvale Sape have been contributors to this team. Eric King looks like he might have some promise. Kevin Thomas looked very good before he got hurt.

I think the problem is that everybody's scouting dept's are sooo good anymore that it's next to impossible to find good players that late in the draft. Aside from the occasional Tom Brady or Marc Bulger, there's really not any teams out there that are finding guys in those later rounds.

Here's a link to all the players drafted in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds. Look over those lists and maybe you'll realize that it's not the Bills' fault that there is hardly anything there that would meet the criterion many of the TD bashers set forth.

Looking over the last 5 years, do you see many quality players available late? I sure don't.

 

 

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

[Orton's Arm]

Peters, Baker, and Greer

(not spectacular, but solid with potential, and all three lasted beyond the 7 round Draft.)

517710[/snapback]

At the start of the year, the only player penciled in as a starter who was selected on the second day of the draft or later was McGee. If scouting departments have grown in sophistication as much as some people say, then first-day picks should be working out better now than they used to be.

 

Look at the starters on this team that were selected with draft picks or undrafted free agents. As usual, the offensive line is in flux, so I'll give TD credit for 1.5 starters out of 5. For offensive skill positions, he gets credit for Losman, McGahee, and Evans. So that's 4.5 offensive starters out of 11.

 

On defense, 3/4 starters on the line are draft picks. Not that said picks are anything special. At LB, none of the starters are draft picks or UDFAs. In the secondary, 2/4 starters are draft picks. So that's 5 of 11 defensive starters.

 

Of the 9.5 starters TD found by UDFA or the draft, many aren't that good. There's really nobody at DT, Mike Williams looks like he'll be gone at the end of the year, Jason Peters hasn't proven to be anything special, and Losman's future is still unknown. I'm not sure any of TD's draft picks have turned out to be elite players. Not with McGahee's recent struggles, Clements' mistakes in San Diego and other games, and Evans' dropoff in performance this year.

[Tortured Soul]

Peters, Baker, and Greer

(not spectacular, but solid with potential, and all three lasted beyond the 7 round Draft.)

517710[/snapback]

A far cry from Hardy Nickerson and Brandon Lloyd

 

In addition to the multiple UDFA's the Bills have secured during Donahoe's tenure, Justin Bannan and Lauvale Sape have been contributors to this team. Eric King looks like he might have some promise. Kevin Thomas looked very good before he got hurt.

I think the problem is that everybody's scouting dept's are sooo good anymore that it's next to impossible to find good players that late in the draft. Aside from the occasional Tom Brady or Marc Bulger, there's really not any teams out there that are finding guys in those later rounds.

Here's a link to all the players drafted in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds. Look over those lists and maybe you'll realize that it's not the Bills' fault that there is hardly anything there that would meet the criterion many of the TD bashers set forth.

Looking over the last 5 years, do you see many quality players available late? I sure don't.

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

517716[/snapback]

I'm not going to argue that we should have probowlers from those rounds - good teams like the Colts come up with a Robert Mathis or a Cato June in those rounds - but a quick look through those lists came up with about 60+ starters. You're right, this alone would not be enough to demand Donahoe's head. It's just another in the long list of complaints. Wanna rehash those?

[34-78-83]

Yet another well intended thread has turned into a "Hey stupid, Td can do no right" fest.

 

 

Sigh

[stuckincincy]

In addition to the multiple UDFA's the Bills have secured during Donahoe's tenure, Justin Bannan and Lauvale Sape have been contributors to this team. Eric King looks like he might have some promise. Kevin Thomas looked very good before he got hurt.

I think the problem is that everybody's scouting dept's are sooo good anymore that it's next to impossible to find good players that late in the draft. Aside from the occasional Tom Brady or Marc Bulger, there's really not any teams out there that are finding guys in those later rounds.

Here's a link to all the players drafted in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds. Look over those lists and maybe you'll realize that it's not the Bills' fault that there is hardly anything there that would meet the criterion many of the TD bashers set forth.

Looking over the last 5 years, do you see many quality players available late? I sure don't.

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

517716[/snapback]

 

Yep - generally not much from round 5 and on.

 

The B'gals 5 -7 rounders who IMO had any impact were/are:

 

2001:

#5 OT Victor Leyva - had some playing time on garbage team - no idea where he is.

#6 LB Rial Johnson - showed promise - injured and gone.

#7 WR T.J. Houshmandzadah - Lady Luck sang loud.

 

2002:

 

Zip.

 

2003:

 

#5 LB Kahlid Abdullah - played several games well, but injured and gone.

#6 DT Langston Moore - gone. Played much of '04 season. A surprising cut.

#7 OT Scott Kooistra - decent back-up player.

#7 DE Elton Patterson - gone. Was so-so; shows up on other team's PS's.

 

2004:

 

#5 WR Maurice Mann - gone. Plucked off PS.

#6 CB Greg Brooks - injuries - on and off the PS.

 

2005:

 

#5 OT Adam Keift - injured in pre-season - on IR

#6 WR Tab Perry - starting KO returner. Has seen a bit of playing time as a WR.

#7 DE Jonathan Fanene - on IR.

UDFA C Ben Wilkerson - on IR. Lady Luck may belt out another one if he heals.

 

So, 11 notable (to me, at lease) picks - 1 WR starter, 1 ST starter, 1 OT back-up, 2 on IR, 1 UDFA on IR, 1 CB who's in and out.

 

Total # of B'gals 5th and lower picks '01 to '05 is 15, with three on the squad and 4 question marks.

[Simon]

a quick look through those lists came up with about 60+ starters.

 

60?!

If you can seriously find 60+ starters drafted in the 5th or later since 2001 you're a better man than me. I don't see anywhere near that many.

Not counting K's and P's I bet you can't even name half that many.

[Orton's Arm]

Yet another well intended thread has turned into a "Hey stupid, Td can do no right" fest.

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You are right. Since I was part of the reason the discussion got off track, I may as well do my share to set things right. If you're looking for bang for the buck, Terrence McGee is the best pick, because he's the only bona fide starter among TD's second day draft picks.

 

A lot of the players are young skill position guys on offense. Poor offensive line play makes them harder to evaluate. Take Lee Evans. His numbers are down this year, but maybe it's because the offensive line just can't get him the time he needs to get open deep. But based on last year, you could make a case for McGahee or Evans or Clements as being the best draft picks overall.

[34-78-83]

You are right. Since I was part of the reason the discussion got off track, I may as well do my share to set things right. If you're looking for bang for the buck, Terrence McGee is the best pick, because he's the only bona fide starter among TD's second day draft picks.

 

A lot of the players are young skill position guys on offense. Poor offensive line play makes them harder to evaluate. Take Lee Evans. His numbers are down this year, but maybe it's because the offensive line just can't get him the time he needs to get open deep. But based on last year, you could make a case for McGahee or Evans or Clements as being the best draft picks overall.

518009[/snapback]

Well , that's a respectable turn around for you in this post.

 

Since the criteria is draft picks only, I would agree with you that McGee is the guy giving most bang for the buck.

[Bflojohn]

I'm a little surprised that this pick HASN'T been mentioned, but I was jazzed when Tom traded up for Losman! I'm well aware that this pick is alternately the Messiah or Red-headed step child on this board, but from my perspective, this move was EVERY BIT the gutsy move any of the other picks have been! Personally, I STILL like the choice!!!

[Tortured Soul]

Well , that's a respectable turn around for you in this post.

 

Since the criteria is draft picks only, I would agree with you that McGee is the guy giving most bang for the buck. 

518014[/snapback]

I think we sort of came to consensus a while ago that it was McGee. Then the question became how good a pick was McGee?

[ganesh]

I'm a little surprised that this pick HASN'T been mentioned, but I was jazzed when Tom traded up for Losman! I'm well aware that this pick is alternately the Messiah or Red-headed step child on this board, but from my perspective, this move was EVERY BIT the gutsy move any of the other picks have been! Personally, I STILL like the choice!!!

518050[/snapback]

 

I would have liked it even better, if he could have traded somehow above

the Steelers and grabbed Big Ben.....I like Losman....but Big Ben is very

accurate....

[34-78-83]

I think we sort of came to consensus a while ago that it was McGee.  Then the question became how good a pick was McGee?

518058[/snapback]

 

Tortured Soul = Holcombs arm ?

[Orton's Arm]

Tortured Soul = Holcombs arm ? 

518117[/snapback]

Why does everyone always think I'm someone else? This week it's Tortured Soul. Last week it was . . . someone or another, I don't remember. Next week it will be someone else.

[Orton's Arm]

I would have liked it even better, if he could have traded somehow above

the Steelers and grabbed Big Ben.....I like Losman....but Big Ben is very

accurate....

518109[/snapback]

I agree with you 100%.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

You are right. Since I was part of the reason the discussion got off track, I may as well do my share to set things right. If you're looking for bang for the buck, Terrence McGee is the best pick, because he's the only bona fide starter among TD's second day draft picks.

 

A lot of the players are young skill position guys on offense. Poor offensive line play makes them harder to evaluate. Take Lee Evans. His numbers are down this year, but maybe it's because the offensive line just can't get him the time he needs to get open deep. But based on last year, you could make a case for McGahee or Evans or Clements as being the best draft picks overall.

518009[/snapback]

 

 

I think that you make a key point in folks understanding that the argument had digressed from making real points because posters are mixing different arguments and even going beyond this confusion to merely pick the arguments which support their point even though these points are "apples and oranges" which cannot be mixed and leave their argument consistent and coherent.

 

For example, the discussion that this thread started with as to what was the best draft pick made by TD. This decision is certainly legitimately argued over an assessment of how good a particular player is, but a comparison between whether TH or WM are better players is different than the point of whether TD made a good draft pick taking them.

 

For example, it is arguable whether Tom Brady or Peyton Manning is a better QB. but since Brady came with a 6th pick and Manning took a 1st, it is not even arguable at all which one is the better draft pick. The discussion quickly turned from its orginal draft assessment to arguments over how good of a player WM really is. The point is clearly key and related but it is simply different.

 

Overall, I think WM was a great pick by TD for several reasons which are related to but not driven by an assessment ofWM as a player.

 

1. Need vs. BAP-

 

One of the key pieces of the ying/yang of draft assessment is that some GMs are primarily driven by a desire to satisfy need while some are driven by a devotion to get the best player available. IMHO, no GM follows the same rule on this all the time (or likely he will not be a GM for long as slavish devotion to this general rule will at some point result in a GM passing on an obvious need to get a player he deems BAP or passing upon and obvious great player to get a lesser player who fills a need).

 

The WM pick was a great one because TD was able to both get a possible BAP (WM was seen pre-injury as a top 5 pick with the #23) and still fill the Bills need for a DE by getting Kelsay (whom few would have complained if TD took him with the #23 pick) in the 2nd round.

 

His decision to do this ended up being a correct decision because he trusted in the Bills docs who made the correct call that WM could rehab into a lead back for the Bills. Since it seems to have worked out that he got a top 5 (or so) pick with a #23 and filled our need for a DE who became a starter, its hard to see how he could have done better with his first two picks.

 

2. The Cap implications-

 

This was a great move by TD not only because of the raw player value but how this played out in terms of cap management. By signing the injured WM at #23, he not only got a talent judged by many to be a top 5 pick and in reality got a lead RB with the #23, but got this potential top 5 guy at the #2 pay slot.

 

In addition, he lowered the cap hit for Kelsay from a 1st rounder as many envisioned him to a second rounder.

 

He simmply managed the cap well with his choices.

 

3. Surprise

 

This is actually a major factor in the draft (surprises a couple of years forced a team (MN I think) to pass on their draft choices for a pick due to confusion and arguments. I think it was a good management job by TD that he overturned some strategy of opponents with a pick that surprised. Many pundits demonstrated their non-understanding of football and team building because they did not realize that TH's prescense and good year prior was what made the WM pick make sense rather than making it unecessary.

 

He led the team in making poor player assessment with the MW pick and like all GMs not only far from perfect but actually really screws up sometime, but the WM pick was simply a great one and as long as the call by the Bills docs has been justified by him actually rehabbing the blown out knee, I think he deserves great credit for making one of the best draft decision of the past decade in how he managed this situtation.