Lori Posted December 1, 2005 Posted December 1, 2005 BUFFALO BILLS (4-7) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-7) SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2005 – 1:00 PM ET DOLPHINS STADIUM, MIAMI, FL CBS: Don Criqui and Steve Beuerlein REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECORD: Miami leads, 48-30-1. The Bills are 10-8 at Joe Robbie/Pro Player/Dolphins Stadium, including 1-1 in the playoffs. PLAYOFF RECORD: Buffalo leads, 3-1. LAST MEETING: October 9, 2005 - Bills 20, Dolphins 14 ( Preview from that game, with a more complete roster breakdown…) Buffalo scored on each of their first three possessions to build up a 17-0 lead midway through the second quarter, then held on for the win in Kelly Holcomb’s debut as the Bills’ starting quarterback. They had a lot of help from the Fish, though, as Miami turned the ball over five times and committed a franchise-record 18 penalties. Holcomb was an efficient 20-26 for 169 yards, including a short touchdown pass to Eric Moulds; Willis McGahee finished the game with 86 rushing yards and a touchdown. LAST TIME IN MIAMI: December 5, 2004 – Bills 42, Dolphins 32 Miami QB A. J. Feeley was busy handing out early Christmas presents - Pat Williams’ 20-yard interception return for the game-clinching touchdown was the fourth of five Feeley giveaways on the day. Drew Bledsoe had one of his best games as a Bill; two of his four touchdown passes ended up in the hands of Lee Evans, who also recorded his first career 100-yard receiving game. OVERVIEW OFFENSE (#19 TOTAL YARDAGE, #T13 RUSHING, #19 PASSING): The big difference from the game in October, of course, is Ricky Williams’ return to the active roster; he was still serving his four-game suspension when Miami played here. He’s rushed for 100+ yards in each of his last three games against Buffalo, including a Miami team-record 228 yards in the December 2002 ‘Snow Bowl’ game. Rookie Ronnie Brown ran well in the first game, averaging 5.7 yards/carry, but also lost a critical fumble when the Fins were driving towards a potential game-winning score late in the fourth quarter. Gus Frerotte continues to have a mediocre season – 12 TDs, 11 INTs, 68.5 QB rating – but he’s Nick Saban’s best option right now. Chris Chambers finally had his first 100-yard game of the season last week against Oakland, but the other starting WR, Marty Booker, has been held without a catch in each of the last two games. TE Randy McMichael remains a dangerous target over the middle, even more so with Lawyer Milloy banged up. He and Chambers each have five TD catches. DEFENSE (#19 TOTAL YARDAGE, #24 RUSHING, #14 PASSING): Keeping track of #99 will be a major challenge Sunday – DE Jason Taylor had two of Miami’s three sacks in the game at RWS, and bettered that with a three-sack performance (including one for a safety) vs. the Raiders last weekend. The line is solid against the run, and has combined for 22 of Miami’s 33 sacks this season. The Fins are hurting for depth at LB, especially if MLB Zach Thomas (shouler/ankle injuries) isn’t available Sunday. Junior Seau and Eddie Moore are officially out for the season, so Donnie Spragan is the starting SLB. Rookie Channing Crowder moved into the middle when Thomas went out, with Derrick Pope replacing him at the other OLB spot. After Tebucky Jones went on I.R., Travares Tillman (remember him?) took over as the starting SS against New Orleans. He’s picked off a pass in each of the last three games, tying him for the team lead with FS Lance Schulters. Sam Madison and rookie Travis Daniels are the starting CBs. SPECIAL TEAMS: Donnie Jones leads the league with a 40.2-yard net average, and 19 of his 58 punts have been downed inside the 20. Olindo Mare has had an inconsistent season – he’s 15-19 overall on FG attempts, but has missed three kicks in the 30-39 yard range, all in the last five weeks. Wes Welker continues to impress me; he does a decent job on kickoff returns, and currently stands third in the NFL with a 10.7-yard average on punt returns. Punt coverage is solid, but opposing kickoff returners are averaging over 25 yds/return. OUTLOOK: Last week’s postgame discussion in Lot 1 centered on the fact that this team appears closer to an major offseason rebuilding job than a playoff run. That said, though, they still have a decent shot to end up 5-1 in the AFC East… which says a lot about the rest of the division. Keys to beating Miami, and other random thoughts: - Find a way to stop the run, against a team averaging 4.5 yards/carry this season. Hey, we can keep hoping, right? - Stay away from the Big Mistake. Seventeen of the last 18 Buffalo-Miami games have been won by the team that forced more turnovers. (Positive trend worth noting here: the Fish are -5 in turnover margin this year; the Bills are +8.) - I like the idea of running the no-huddle offense, but wonder how effective it will be on the road. What I don’t like is watching our alleged “franchise running back” stand on the sidelines during the two-minute drill. Shaud Williams has yet to make an impact in the third-down packages. Squish the Fish! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Links: NFL.com: injury report / Miami depth chart /Miami team stats Ourlads.com: Miami depth chart Official team website: MiamiDolphins.com (mailin' it in from the branch office in Amherst, which also explains why I'm cutting it short this week...)
Mark VI Posted December 1, 2005 Posted December 1, 2005 What I don’t like is watching our alleged “franchise running back” stand on the sidelines during the two-minute drill. Shaud Williams has yet to make an impact in the third-down packages. 4 WR, single back, no TE. Mix in some delays/draws to #21. Losman needs to deliver quick, short strikes to counter the rush he will see. The no huddle can be run with #21. But MM will probably prattle on about #21 not fitting in with those Offensive " packages " . ( groan )
buckeyemike Posted December 1, 2005 Posted December 1, 2005 Thanks Lori. You are one of the smartest people on this board. (OK, enough brownnosing...) Mike
The Dean Posted December 1, 2005 Posted December 1, 2005 Even a short version is a good read, Lo. Thanks for doing our work, once again.
Frez Posted December 2, 2005 Posted December 2, 2005 Good job Lori, I enjoy reading your weekly thoughts on the games. IMHO, Miami runs all over this Bills defense. It will be the "Ronnie Brown" coming out party this Sunday. Miami 24 Bills 12
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