Finger Pointing is easy with this team

[Tcali]

The easiest thing to do with a losing team is to find fault with everyone from the trainer to Ralph Wilson's dog groomer. Problem with it is that there isn't anywhere near the distance between this team and the better teams in the league that all the finger pointing would lead one to believe.

 

The truth about the NFL today is that the most important players on any roster have changed dramatically over the past 30 years. The media and fans they feed are still stuck on believing the "skill" position players are the most critical, while fans with a deeper appreciation of the game recognize that better defenses win upwards of 90% of the important games in the NFL.

 

But even those that recognize the greater importance of today's defenses are typically stuck in a mentality of defense that presumes CBs and DEs have the greatest impact because stopping a team on 3rd down is where the defense's bread gets buttered.

 

The problem with that thinking is that it just isn't supported by the facts. If you look at the best 3rd down D's in the league you'll find Arizona, Philly and the Ravens among the top 10- teams with a combined record of 10 wins and 20 losses so far this season.

 

The NFL has become a first down league- defensive and offensive success on first down has more to do with ultimate success in the league than anything else, with the success of the D being far and away the more important since the teams with great first down Ds end up giving their offense more opportunities over the course of a Sunday than their counterparts. The truth is a team that focuses on and is successful shutting down their opponents on first down simply doesn’t need anything more than an offense that is capable of putting together some sustained drives during a game- no need for the flashy WR or exciting QB and RB- simply an offense who can chew up some clock when their D has shut down the opponent and turn some of those spurts into points.

Putting your opponent in 2nd and 3rd and long situations allows you to put more abundant talent on the field and still be effective stopping them on the longer downs.

 

When it comes to first downs there is no player on the football field with more importance than the interior defensive linemen or lineman according to scheme. Everything begins in the middle of the defensive line on first down. Even where your opponent throws the ball it’s the push in the center that dictates your opponent’s success. The best DE’s in the league have little chance when they’re playing to the sides of poor quality DTs. Yesterday was a great example of this- facing a QB who has proven to be as good as any playing in the game today we were unable to provide any push to flush him to our DEs when he did drop to pass on first down, and he simply made his reads from the safety of his pocket and ate us up- challenging our assumed strength in pass coverage. We brought help to the line from the safety spot all day and teased Brees to throw on us- and throw he did. And it was all predicated on the fact that we had no quality at the DT position to pressure him out of the pocket to set up our DEs.

 

We’ve watched all year what happens when our opponent recognizes the poor talent we’ve assembled at DT, and we saw yesterday what a team will do to a defense bringing help to their poor DTs by challenging the line with extra men.

 

It’ll be an off-season with lots of blame-laying, at the feet of coaches and players and owners and zebras and ostriches, but in the simplest of all terms our failures of 2005 have been more directly proportional to the fact that we simply can’t stop anyone from running for 5 yards on first down and if we risk giving our bad DTs any help the outcome is utter embarrassment.

 

Looking to the sidelines before the game it was clear Sam Adams was overheated sitting head down in front of a misting fan and favoring in a major way his bad leg when he did any warm-up. His face also suggested he figured he had no business being in the game. We’ve been fortunate to have one starting quality DT on our roster when Sam has been healthy but even with a clean bill of health Sam is merely a great 1-technique DT. You can’t expect to win the in the NFL with just one great 1-technique DT, you must have at the VERY minimum have a good 2-gap DT to play alongside him. All the best defenses today have a complement of three, and in some cases four, very good to great 1 and 2 gap DTs. 2005 is a football season wasted because we came into it with merely one quality DT in our rotation, and with DT having evolved into the most critical position on the football field the wheels are falling off our wagon since that one quality DT isn’t up to snuff at this time.

 

The worst news is our upcoming opponents get to watch the San Diego game and notice the 4 spots we just dropped today in our pass defense rating. And with no one to help a decent DE group flush our opponents QBs we might expect to see a lot more challenges to the balance of our D. Maybe it’s fair to spread the misery around- but that will in no way change the fact of where everything for 2005 started falling apart before we even stepped on the field to face the Texans in the opener- our failure to sign/draft a dependable first down defense in our interior.

509189[/snapback]

But fingerpointing makes me feel good.

[GG]

I think the best question about our defense for the past few seasons is whether Gray is a guy who is calling a great game with lesser talent or a guy with the benefit of good talent but not great scheming. One thing I'm sure of is that along the DLine he has one of the- maybe the- worst groups of interior DLine "talent" in the league.

509643[/snapback]

 

I just watched the replay of the 1st half yesterday, and can unequivocably say that the DL was not the problem on Sunday. This was a virtual replay of the Bucs game, where a friggin Brian Griese undressed the D.

 

I don't think that we need to read between the lines on the huge push by TD to try to retain LeBeau. You don't need to be a Norman Einstein to see a parallel between the "Gray's" defenses with and without LeBeau.

 

You would figure that after watching Brees commandeer two drives by exploiting 10-yard cushions Bills' DBs gave Chargers with Brees taking no more than 3 steps, someone would at least have the CBs press the WRs at the line and disrupt the quick tosses?

 

One wold think...

[Simon]

When have you seen Jerry Gray's defense effectively stand up to a quick hitting passing attack?

What you saw yesterday was perfect execution of New England's game plan against Jerry Gray's defense. The only mind boggling thing is that more teams haven't implemented a hurry up against us.

 

I agree with this (and with your point regarding the Bills' unwillingness to let their corners play football at the LOS) and the only reason I can think that we don't see it more often is that we just don't play that many teams that can do it well. Efficiently running that kind of offense which usually requires so many sustained drives is not an easy thing to do; and when you factor in a salary cap that limits the talent on individual units, injuries as the year progresses, half our games being played under the influence of The Hawk, etc. I can almost see why teams don't eat us alive with it that often.

We also have match-up problems when we see really good TE's and there just aren't that many of them in the league so that's an infrequent problem. And I also get the sense that teh Bills like to make a concerted effort to stop the run with 7 guys but against Schottenheimer's Chargers that folly is pointless, so we end up playing with a thinner secondary than we're accustmed to.

If those factors were confluent more often, we'd likely see more teams treating us like San Diego treated us; but since there's just not that many teams in the league that have those sort of weapons and the ability to use them that efficiently, Gray's schemes don't get lit up as often as you might think they would/should.

Cya

[Kultarr]

I don't think that we need to read between the lines on the huge push by TD to try to retain LeBeau.  You don't need to be a Norman Einstein to see a parallel between the "Gray's" defenses with and without LeBeau.

 

I don't know, GG. LeBeau had different horses. Gray doesn't really have that much to work with. The interior is soft.

 

He has nobody that can physically beat a blocker and get into the backfield. Which is why he blitzes incessantly. Which is why the corners play off, so they don't give up homeruns on every play. You play the odds that the other team has its own incompetents and draws penalties or stonehands a few balls and stalls the drive because most NFL teams aren't good enough these days to sustain a drive.

 

Now, Gray's adjustments (if any) failed horribly, too.

 

Of course, what if pulled back on the blitzes? Can the LBs cover anyone? I don't see Fletcher, Posey or Milloy doing anything against Gates. None of them have the required tools. One of the CBs was dinged and the FS as well.

 

Gray is no Belichick or Cronell, but I think this defense's talent is overrated.

[Simon]

I don't know, GG.  LeBeau had different horses.  Gray doesn't really have that much to work with.  The interior is soft.

 

He has nobody that can physically beat a blocker and get into the backfield.  Which is why he blitzes incessantly.  Which is why the corners play off, so they don't give up homeruns on every play.  You play the odds that the other team has its own incompetents and draws penalties or stonehands a few balls and stalls the drive because most NFL teams aren't good enough these days to sustain a drive.

 

Now, Gray's adjustments (if any) failed horribly, too.

 

Of course, what if pulled back on the blitzes?  Can the LBs cover anyone?  I don't see Fletcher, Posey or Milloy doing anything against Gates.  None of them have the required tools.  One of the CBs was dinged and the FS as well.

 

Gray is no Belichick or Cronell, but I think this defense's talent is overrated.

510012[/snapback]

 

Holy shlt, who left the screen door open?-)

Good to see you're still around mac.

[dave mcbride]

Holy shlt, who left the screen door open?-)

Good to see you're still around mac. 

510017[/snapback]

my feelings exactly about eric - where have you been? re this conversation, you guys are dancing around the obvious: the bills can stay in the game against bad and mediocre teams, but don't stand a chance against good teams. it's pretty simple.

[GG]

Holy shlt, who left the screen door open?-)

Good to see you're still around mac. 

510017[/snapback]

 

Can't be him. The real Kultarr just fights it out with JDG via emails.

 

As to the main point, Bills haven't been able to push the interior on a pass rush in a long time (including LeBeau's tenure).

 

My view of Gray's defense vs SD is that he chose death by a thousand cuts, opposed to getting beat by a big play. It's a tall order to expect mistakes when ou give the opponent such a huge cushion. Last week, Gray was a hero, because Vermeil had Green play a 7-step drop game, forgetting the torching he inflicted on this D 2 years ago with a different plan.

[AKC]

Now, Gray's adjustments (if any) failed horribly, too.

 

510012[/snapback]

 

Is my memory clouded or were we not in recent times one of the best D's at making adjustments on the fly? This season we just get worse as the game goes on.

 

I'm with you Eric as far as it being the personnel. We have 6 guys who could find a starting role on a top NFL defense, and then we have our interior line and another guy named after something that requires fertilizer. I was hoping we'd learned our lesson about that the first time it happened ;-)

[Simon]

Damn man.

Bannderson, you're wife's cooking sucks, a Posey/Flowers tie-in; you're own fahr!

[Kultarr]

Can't be him.  The real Kultarr just fights it out with JDG via emails.

 

As to the main point, Bills haven't been able to push the interior on a pass rush in a long time (including LeBeau's tenure).

 

My view of Gray's defense vs SD is that he chose death by a thousand cuts, opposed to getting beat by a big play.  It's a tall order to expect mistakes when ou give the opponent such a huge cushion.  Last week, Gray was a hero, because Vermeil had Green play a 7-step drop game, forgetting the torching he inflicted on this D 2 years ago with a different plan.

510035[/snapback]

 

Nope. It's really me.

 

As far as the interior, Pat Williams was the real deal on the inside. Sam Adams, by comparison, is an out-of-shape loafer prone to nagging injuries and long stretches of vacation time. Adams has always been lauded for the great talent, but he doesn't always bother to flip his switch to the on position. (I've been watching his play since college. He was a bust in Seattle but getting dumped and working with Marvin Lewis and Del Rio in Baltimore lit a fire under him. Adams has historically needed to be paired with another great DT to show much of anything. When he has to be the rock in the middle, he folds.)

 

He could've went to a press, I guess, but his best cornerman was playing like a turd. I haven't seen much of the Bills this year (probably a good thing after seeing that game Sunday), but I can't really bring myself to blame Gray for that mess. The secondary was a mess, really. His safeties are over the hill and can't run anymore. (My my, Lawyer Milloy is nothing but a shell of what he once was.) McGee was literally lame. And his best "playmaker" was getting undressed. And, the front 7 looks pretty bad as well. Schobel and Crowell were out there hustling to make plays, but too bad hustle isn't enough. Adams was another lame gimp. London Fletcher is still the same as always -- overrated and making his tackles 15 yards down the field.

[SamsBuffetTable]

The starting post is good and has done an excellent job of figureing out what positions gms find sexy. I think that the reasoning is a little different.

 

I believe that fans, the media, and many teams get obsessed with measurables/statistics. The focus on statistics is particularly unfortunate since there is no such thing as an individual event of a football field, unlike baseball where every at bat is an individual event. Therefore your stat line is the product of the efforts of the entire team.

 

We see this particularly well on the defensive line. DEs are paid a lot more money than DTs because DEs get lots of sacks whereas DTs don't get many sacks or tackles.

 

Corners know that interceptions lead to big paydays more than makeing the correct play and knocking down the ball. This is why so many corners try for interceptions in hail mary situations.

 

With regards to measurables lets talk about quaterbacks. When drafting QBs you never hear talk about reading defenses because it is too abstract. Instead you hear about arm strength. This is why Ryan Leaf was a 2nd pick and Tom Brady was a 6th rounder.

 

Or lets talk about a team that doesn't know how to evaluate offensive linemen so they just aloways look for the biggest guy possible.

 

This can be remidied by watching more game film. By this post I don't tmean that stats/measurables should be completely ignored. A player with better stats/measurables has a higher probability of being good than one without these atributes, but these numbers do not tell as much of the story as game film.

[SamsBuffetTable]

Oh also the positions of the most important players on a team have not changed. The game is won in the trenches. You can't make a great pass play without blocking.

 

The problem is that it is hard to grade talent at these important positions because there are even less good statistics for the lazy man to sort through in spreadsheets.

[JDG]

If defense wins championships, how do we explain the rise of the St. Louis Rams?

[obie_wan]

 

When it comes to first downs there is no player on the football field with more importance than the interior defensive linemen or lineman according to scheme. .

509189[/snapback]

 

 

Vince Wilfork comes to mind.

[Orton's Arm]

AKC's intial post showed a lot of thought, an effort to reach beneath the surface to see what truly affects a football game.

 

While I agree that DT is an important position, I don't think that just because a team has a pair of great DTs it will necessarily be a winning club. I believe good teams are built on three pillars:

 

OL: with a good OL, you will have a good running game. Without a good OL, you won't have much of a passing game.

 

QB: A bad QB will kill you with turnovers. A good QB, plus a good OL, will get you a decent passing offense even with average receivers.

 

DL: Instrumental in keeping blockers off your back 7 on running plays, and rushing the passer on passing plays. As AKC pointed out, success on the DL starts with the interior, guys who can turn 1st and 10 into 2nd and 11. But you also need good DEs to turn 3rd and 11 into a punt.

[dave mcbride]

Vince Wilfork comes to mind.

510496[/snapback]

but the pats defense is beyond horrible this year.

[Bill from NYC]

If defense wins championships, how do we explain the rise of the St. Louis Rams?

510476[/snapback]

 

The 49ers and Raiders were other examples of offensive oriented teams that won a superbowl, but teams such as the Bucs and Ravens did the same with below average offenses and shut down Ds.

I guess that it is similar to baseball in that if your starter tosses a shutout, your team wins.

[GG]

but the pats defense is beyond horrible this year.

510695[/snapback]

 

And Wilfork has had to battle to get playing time in their crappy defense.

[ganesh]

Holcombs Arm.,

 

If you have those good OL, QB, but if you had bad coaching, a staff that cannot instill mental toughness into its players to concentrate and focus, they are no better than the lousy talented palyers...

[AKC]

As to the main point, Bills haven't been able to push the interior on a pass rush in a long time (including LeBeau's tenure).

 

My view of Gray's defense vs SD is that he chose death by a thousand cuts, opposed to getting beat by a big play.  It's a tall order to expect mistakes when ou give the opponent such a huge cushion.  Last week, Gray was a hero, because Vermeil had Green play a 7-step drop game, forgetting the torching he inflicted on this D 2 years ago with a different plan.

510035[/snapback]

 

I'll do a bit more diligence to this if I get a chance, but in watching some of the first half again last night the vast majority of the pass play calling by San Diego were 5 and 7 step drops with the primary look being at deeper patterns. Out of the first maybe 18 pass plays there were only 3 designed "short passes" (and those three were thrown on consecutive downs) that included a WR screen, a 3 step WR flat pass and a 3 step slant to their TE, otherwise EVERY play was more along the lines of their very first pass play; a 7 step drop with a 45 yard throw on a deep post.

 

And Wilfork has had to battle to get playing time in their crappy defense.

510892[/snapback]

 

I'm beginning to wonder if, outside of his career best game against us this season, the Pats are beginning to think they misjudged Wilfork's ability.