A Football Question. Did we make the right QB move

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I think the answer is more clear if one is making a judgment based on popularity (JP is the man because he did well last weekend and Bledsoe sucks because ..well he is Bledsoe).

 

Cliff notes begin: I vote for JP in my own poll thought I am impressed and pleased with Bledsoe's performance in 2005. I think we made the right move for us and ironically for Bledsoe as well who really will make himself a stone cold lock for the HOF if Dallas continues on the same track they are on which has produced a 6-3 record. Cliff notes end.

 

However, when one looks at the football issues this is an interesting question to me.

 

Overall, I think that Bledsoe is having a fine year. The bottomline for me is really measured by the number of Ws a team puts and whether a team has a successful season producing at least a winning record and actually not being a real success in my mind unless they make it at least to the conference championships that year.

 

By this measure, because it is such a rare thing for players to be part of a successful team that I think Bledsoe already was quite likely to make the HOF given that he:

 

1. Led a teams to the SB where they lost under Parcells (merely making it once and even winning it does not make a player worthy of the HOF but it is a measure of successful play).

2. He played an essential role on an SB winner playing QB and even throwing the winning TD in must-win game for NE in the year they won the SB with Brady leading the way most of the season. Bledsoe did not lead the team on the field the way he did before when he worked with Parcells to get to the final game, but he did play QB successfully in the majority of a must-win game and deserves credit and the ring for that.

3. He has been declared dead not once (by NE when they cut him) but twice (by the Bills when they cut him. Both times he answered these rejections by playing QB on far more productive teams the next season than they produced without him. He made and deserved his Pro Bowl reserve status with the Bills in 2002 as we moved from 3-13 to 8-8 and the production of Ws by the Boys so far has included some nie play by Bledsoe (along with his typical brain farts like his INT yesterday) and god and bad, the team is 6-3 so far after a horrendous losing season last year. Bledsoe the occaisional (almost once per game) brain cramp and all has simply QB'ed this team to a very good record and only those who make judgments without regard to facts would overlook this.

4. He has put up some very glitzy career statistics. It matters little that his near the top of his field numbers like yardage gained are in part due to his lasting a long time, as simply lasting a long time in the NFL is a fear in itself. Again his % of succes does not indicate he is one of the best, but it cannot be denied that his raw absoultue numbers are among the best.

 

This record will likely get him into the HOF and the lead factor will actually be who he will be competing with as an eligible player when he retires. Unless he and Favre retire the same year he may well equal Kelly in getting in his first year of eligibility.

 

Still. despite the fact I think a look at the cold football fact means Bledsoe is likely headed for the HOF, I think from a football perspective the Bills did exactly the right thing cutting Bledsoe and looking elsewhere at QB after 2004.

 

There is a reasonable case to be made that after QBing the team to a 9-7 record last year that Bledsoe might be kept to go for the extra game and the playoffs this year, but quite frankly, I was disappointed they resigned him after the 6-10 debacle in 2002.

 

While the buck stops in GW hands and he certainly deserved to be let go at the end of his contract (actually the buck stops in TDs hands and he should have hire Fox or Lewis instead of GW, but the GM does get a mulligan and do over on his first HC hire as long as he shows good skills in other aspects of his job and TD easily demonstrated some excellent achievements in:

 

1. Managing the business side of the Bills which has GM only he can do and the team really moved into the 21st century under his guidance and for Ralph's benefit. This was the primary reason he got extended since it certainly was not for leading this team to the playoffs. Though that is my primay concern it ain't Ralph's only concern by far.

2. Atracting good front office and on field talent like Modrak, old buddy LeBeau to overhaul our D, now Mularkey after the GW debacle and some good scouts and beancounters.

3. Doing some niftly contract and draft management from getting quality FAs like Takeo and Fletcher to come to our small market, negotiating contracts kind to the Blls cap like TKO and Adams. Some folks pooh-pooh is cap maangement as a rote easy thing to do as he we moved out of cap hell. However, if this is so easy, look at the poor management and mistakes of teams like SF and AZ and tell me that anyone can make the cuts necessary and still produce even our non-playoff qualifying record and get us out of cap hell so quickly. TD has ultimately been a failure in the result i care most about as his teams have not made the playoffs.

4. Doing some extraordinary draft managment in the surprising pick of WM, the surprising tagging of Price and trade for the WM pick, trading away (except for the mistake of WM and the good pick of Evans) the first rounder as their slotted salary makes 1st rounders generally a bad investment. He has suffered the usual level of hits and misses with picks, but he clearly reads he market extraordinarily well as he not only made the WM pick in a way which allowed for good cap management of a 1st but we still got the DE we needed in the 2nd and he traded up to steal Denney off the phone from Pitts.

 

I can see why RW extended TD eevn though he has not accomplished the thing I want most from a GM.

However, I would be a fool not to recognize that his record of failure does include a 2002 improvement in record which was almost one of the best ever and that this team did come within one game of the playoffs last year. The team failed last year, but this does not mean that TD has done nothing and deserves to be sacked. Between his off-filed accomplishments for Ralph's business and him getting closer than other teams in cap limbo when he took over like SF and AZ him being exended makes perfect sense to me as Ralph's criteria for success and my crtiteris are quite different. It\s Ralph's criteria that rule the roost because it is his money.

 

At any rate, back to the QB judgment, there is a case to be made for keeping Bledsoe after last year even though by ny judgment he should have been gone after 2003.

 

However, JP did show some solid improvement as he moved from being out of control and running for his life in NE in his first appearance through his mop-up appearances at the end of 2004. JP moved from getting a silly delay of game penalty which fortunately he recovered from to keep handing off to a TD. He then improved to having to take an unnecessary TO but at least he avoided the dumb penalty and went from there to be quite sucessful in moving the team. He really began to show in his final performances last year some production that gave some hope he would be more like RoboQB in Pitts with a strong running game and very good D that Eli Manning making mistakes as he learned to QB in the NFL.

 

It seemed clear to me that Bledsoe could stil QB a team to a winning record in the NFL if the rest of the team picked up the slack (like the Williams INT coupling with a nice pass by Bledsoe to Glenn and a critical pass to Keyshawn to produce the winning margin). However, though he is destined for the HOF, I really do not see Bledsoe carrying a team to the promised land on his play. Even worse, in the best case, with a stud D and ST this year, we make the playoffs this year, but as Bledsoe gets older it is probably even less likely he is the QB of the future and present in 06/07 etcetera so the question of cutting him was not if but when.

 

As far as JP, though his performance at the end of last season was good. it really provided little more than hope that he would be adequate this year. As shown by the play and then production of folks like Carson Palmer and Eli Manning (and even Peyton Manning who moved the Colts from 3-13 to 3-13 as a rookie woth his play) it takes some play and for a QB to produce in the NFL. The RoboQB example with Pitts last year provided some hope a rookie could be carried to good production with a good team. However, it was pretty outrageous to assume or expect that JP was going to be productive with the team this year.

 

Our surprising failing has not been that JP was simply bad from game 2 through his deserved benching, the surprise was that our D which was among the best the last two years is really among the worse (if not the worst when it comes to run stopping) this year.

 

It made perfect football sense to me to cut Bledsoe and to go with JP.

 

If anything, there was a reasonable question as to whether you switch from Bledse/JP/Matthews to Holcomb/JP/Matthews rather than starting JP right away.

 

His play in pre-season and the first game and Holcomb saying he was fine and ready being our #2 made the JP as starter move a reasonable one to make.

 

However, no one thought JP would suck as bad as he did and tt really is a great thing that JP rebounded so well from what actually is not atypical as a path for QB development.

 

JP will now have the right to keep and earn his spot on the field with production. This will invovle careful management by MM/TC as they need to be willing to go to Holcomb still when he is ready and if we are still in the playoff hunt. However, a good QB needs to be able to make mistakes and go for it without fear that he is going to be benched for any error in team production whether he made it or not.

 

I almost certainly give Holcomb another wek off after a concussion, but motly because I think this will be another good development chance for JP to play and produce without the immediate fear of being benched if one of hisWRs drops the ball or even if he makes a houng QB mistake.

 

Though it will be a loss not to have Holcomb as a back-up. i actually do have confidence in Matthews to play the game if JP simply sucks. Matthews will NOT win many (or any) games for us with his play. However, he is enough of a vet that I think he will not lose a lot of games for us if called upon as our back-up and he may well be productive in a reserve role as a park plug if he gets what I called the "AVP effect" where he would come off the bench after the other team destroyed our starter and AVP would prove to be very effective. I think this happened not because AVP was such a great QB (in fact when AVP then got the start and the opposing teams and coaches got tape on him and prepared for him he could be undressed as a QB not ready to start in the NFL) but because the opponents would simply let down after cutting through our starter. Matthews may get this benefit if he gets a shot (which I hope he doesn't).

 

At any rate, congrats to Bledsoe. I think he will actually go far this year in the befuddled NFC East and conference. I think he can QB a team to wins if the team is led by a stud like Parcells and the D and ST play in ways that supplement and lead the O to wins.

 

However, I think it was the right move for the Bills to cut Bledsoe after last season and in fact they should have let him go after the 2003 season and moved on.

[smuvtalker]

I think the answer is more clear if one is making a judgment based on popularity (JP is the man because he did well last weekend and Bledsoe sucks because ..well he is Bledsoe).

 

Cliff notes begin:  I vote for JP in my own poll thought I am impressed and pleased with Bledsoe's performance in 2005.  I think we made the right move for us and ironically for Bledsoe as well who really will make himself a stone cold lock for the HOF if Dallas continues on the same track they are on which has produced a 6-3 record. Cliff notes end.

 

However, when one looks at the football issues this is an interesting question to me.

 

Overall, I think that Bledsoe is having a fine year.  The bottomline for me is really measured by the number of Ws a team puts and whether a team has a successful season producing at least a winning record and actually not being a real success in my mind unless they make it at least to the conference championships that year.

 

By this measure, because it is such a rare thing for players to be part of a successful team that I think Bledsoe already was quite likely to make the HOF given that he:

 

1. Led a teams to the SB where they lost under Parcells (merely making it once and even winning it does not make a player worthy of the HOF but it is a measure of successful play).

2. He played an essential role on an SB winner playing QB and even throwing the winning TD in must-win game for NE in the year they won the SB with Brady leading the way most of the season.  Bledsoe did not lead the team on the field the way he did before when he worked with Parcells to get to the final game, but he did play QB successfully in the majority of a must-win game and deserves credit and the ring for that.

3. He has been declared dead not once (by NE when they cut him) but twice (by the Bills when they cut him. Both times he answered these rejections by playing QB on far more productive teams the next season than they produced without him. He made and deserved his Pro Bowl reserve status with the Bills in 2002 as we moved from 3-13 to 8-8 and the production of Ws by the Boys so far has included some nie play by Bledsoe (along with his typical brain farts like his INT yesterday) and god and bad, the team is 6-3 so far after a horrendous losing season last year. Bledsoe the occaisional (almost once per game) brain cramp and all has simply QB'ed this team to a very good record and only those who make judgments without regard to facts would overlook this.

4. He has put up some very glitzy career statistics. It matters little that his near the top of his field numbers like yardage gained are in part due to his lasting a long time, as simply lasting a long time in the NFL is a fear in itself.  Again his % of succes does not indicate he is one of the best, but it cannot be denied that his raw absoultue numbers are among the best.

 

This record will likely get him into the HOF and the lead factor will actually be who he will be competing with as an eligible player when he retires. Unless he and Favre retire the same year he may well equal Kelly in getting in his first year of eligibility.

 

Still. despite the fact I think a look at the cold football fact means Bledsoe is likely headed for the HOF, I think from a football perspective the Bills did exactly the right thing cutting Bledsoe and looking elsewhere at QB after 2004.

 

There is a reasonable case to be made that after QBing the team to a 9-7 record last year that Bledsoe might be kept to go for the extra game and the playoffs this year, but quite frankly, I was disappointed they resigned him after the 6-10 debacle in 2002.

 

While the buck stops in GW hands and he certainly deserved to be let go at the end of his contract (actually the buck stops in TDs hands and he should have hire Fox or Lewis instead of GW, but the GM does get a mulligan and do over on his first HC hire as long as he shows good skills in other aspects of his job and TD easily demonstrated some excellent achievements in:

 

1. Managing the business side of the Bills which has GM only he can do and the team really moved into the 21st century under his guidance and for Ralph's benefit. This was the primary reason he got extended since it certainly was not for leading this team to the playoffs. Though that is my primay concern it ain't Ralph's only concern by far.

2. Atracting good front office and on field talent like Modrak, old buddy LeBeau to overhaul our D, now Mularkey after the GW debacle and some good scouts and beancounters.

3. Doing some niftly contract and draft management from getting quality FAs like Takeo and Fletcher to come to our small market, negotiating contracts kind to the Blls cap like TKO and Adams. Some folks pooh-pooh is cap maangement as a rote easy thing to do as he we moved out of cap hell. However, if this is so easy, look at the poor management and mistakes of teams like SF and AZ and tell me that anyone can make the cuts necessary and still produce even our non-playoff qualifying record and get us out of cap hell so quickly. TD has ultimately been a failure in the result i care most about as his teams have not made the playoffs.

4. Doing some extraordinary draft managment in the surprising pick of WM, the surprising tagging of Price and trade for the WM pick, trading away (except for the mistake of WM and the good pick of Evans) the first rounder as their slotted salary makes 1st rounders generally a bad investment.  He has suffered the usual level of hits and misses with picks, but he clearly reads he market extraordinarily well as he not only made the WM pick in a way which allowed for good cap management of a 1st but we still got the DE we needed in the 2nd and he traded up to steal Denney off the phone from Pitts.

 

I can see why RW extended TD eevn though he has not accomplished the thing I want most from a GM.

However, I would be a fool not to recognize that his record of failure does include a 2002 improvement in record which was almost one of the best ever and that this team did come within one game of the playoffs last year. The team failed last year, but this does not mean that TD has done nothing and deserves to be sacked.  Between his off-filed accomplishments for Ralph's business and him getting closer than other teams in cap limbo when he took over like SF and AZ him being exended makes perfect sense to me as Ralph's criteria for success and my crtiteris are quite different. It\s Ralph's criteria that rule the roost because it is his money.

 

At any rate, back to the QB judgment, there is a case to be made for keeping Bledsoe after last year even though by ny judgment he should have been gone after 2003.

 

However, JP did show some solid improvement as he moved from being out of control and running for his life in NE in his first appearance through his mop-up appearances at the end of 2004.  JP moved from getting a silly delay of game penalty which fortunately he recovered from to keep handing off to a TD.  He then improved to having to take an unnecessary TO but at least he avoided the dumb penalty and went from there to be quite sucessful in moving the team. He really began to show in his final performances last year some production that gave some hope he would be more like RoboQB in Pitts with a strong running game and very good D that Eli Manning making mistakes as he learned to QB in the NFL.

 

It seemed clear to me that Bledsoe could stil QB a team to a winning record in the NFL if the rest of the team picked up the slack (like the Williams INT coupling with a nice pass by Bledsoe to Glenn and a critical pass to Keyshawn to produce the winning margin). However, though he is destined for the HOF, I really do not see Bledsoe carrying a team to the promised land on his play.  Even worse, in the best case, with a stud D and ST this year, we make the playoffs this year, but as Bledsoe gets older it is probably even less likely he is the QB of the future and present in 06/07 etcetera so the question of cutting him was not if but when.

 

As far as JP, though his performance at the end of last season was good. it really provided little more than hope that he would be adequate this year. As shown by the play and then production of folks like Carson Palmer and Eli Manning (and even Peyton Manning who moved the Colts from 3-13 to 3-13 as a rookie woth his play) it takes some play and for a QB to produce in the NFL.  The RoboQB example with Pitts last year provided some hope a rookie could be carried to good production with a good team. However, it was pretty outrageous to assume or expect that JP was going to be productive with the team this year.

 

Our surprising failing has not been that JP was simply bad from game 2 through his deserved benching, the surprise was that our D which was among the best the last two years is really among the worse (if not the worst when it comes to run stopping) this year.

 

It made perfect football sense to me to cut Bledsoe and to go with JP.

 

If anything, there was a reasonable question as to whether you switch from Bledse/JP/Matthews to Holcomb/JP/Matthews rather than starting JP right away.

 

His play in pre-season and the first game and Holcomb saying he was fine and ready being our #2 made the JP as starter move a reasonable one to make.

 

However, no one thought JP would suck as bad as he did and tt really is a great thing that JP rebounded so well from what actually is not atypical as a path for QB development.

 

JP will now have the right to keep and earn his spot on the field with production. This will invovle careful management by MM/TC as they need to be willing to go to Holcomb still when he is ready and if we are still in the playoff hunt.  However, a good QB needs to be able to make mistakes and go for it without fear that he is going to be benched for any error in team production whether he made it or not.

 

I almost certainly give Holcomb another wek off after a concussion, but motly because I think this will be another good development  chance for JP to play and produce without the immediate fear of being benched if one of hisWRs drops the ball or even if he makes a houng QB mistake.

 

Though it will be a loss not to have Holcomb as a back-up. i actually do have confidence in Matthews to play the game if JP simply sucks.  Matthews will NOT win many (or any) games for us with his play.  However, he is enough of a vet that I think he will not lose a lot of games for us if called upon as our back-up and he may well be productive in a reserve role as a park plug if he gets what I called the "AVP effect" where he would come off the bench after the other team destroyed our starter and AVP would prove to be very effective.  I think this happened not because AVP was such a great QB (in fact when AVP then got the start and the opposing teams and coaches got tape on him and prepared for him he could be undressed as a QB not ready to start in the NFL) but because the opponents would simply let down after cutting through our starter.  Matthews may get this benefit if he gets a shot (which I hope he doesn't).

 

At any rate, congrats to Bledsoe. I think he will actually go far this year in the befuddled NFC East and conference. I think he can QB a team to wins if the team is led by a stud like Parcells and the D and ST play in ways that supplement and lead the O to wins.

 

However, I think it was the right move for the Bills to cut Bledsoe after last season and in fact they should have let him go after the 2003 season and moved on.

503794[/snapback]

 

Sweet, sweet jesus. That post should be enshrined in the TSW of Fame.

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

Out of curiousity, how long did that take to write?

[Rico]

I think Bledsoe already was quite likely to make the HOF given that he:

 

1. Led a teams to the SB where they lost under Parcells (merely making it once and even winning it does not make a player worthy of the HOF but it is a measure of successful play).

2. He played an essential role on an SB winner playing QB and even throwing the winning TD in must-win game for NE in the year they won the SB with Brady leading the way most of the season.  Bledsoe did not lead the team on the field the way he did before when he worked with Parcells to get to the final game, but he did play QB successfully in the majority of a must-win game and deserves credit and the ring for that.

3. He has been declared dead not once (by NE when they cut him) but twice (by the Bills when they cut him. Both times he answered these rejections by playing QB on far more productive teams the next season than they produced without him. He made and deserved his Pro Bowl reserve status with the Bills in 2002 as we moved from 3-13 to 8-8 and the production of Ws by the Boys so far has included some nie play by Bledsoe (along with his typical brain farts like his INT yesterday) and god and bad, the team is 6-3 so far after a horrendous losing season last year. Bledsoe the occaisional (almost once per game) brain cramp and all has simply QB'ed this team to a very good record and only those who make judgments without regard to facts would overlook this.

4. He has put up some very glitzy career statistics. It matters little that his near the top of his field numbers like yardage gained are in part due to his lasting a long time, as simply lasting a long time in the NFL is a fear in itself.  Again his % of succes does not indicate he is one of the best, but it cannot be denied that his raw absoultue numbers are among the best.

 

This record will likely get him into the HOF and the lead factor will actually be who he will be competing with as an eligible player when he retires. Unless he and Favre retire the same year he may well equal Kelly in getting in his first year of eligibility.

503794[/snapback]

5. Halfway thru 2003, he quit on his team and mailed in the rest of the season.

 

Are there any gutless losers in the HOF? I think not.

[drnykterstein]

I'm glad we went with "our new young guy". instead of DB. It didn't matter who the guy was so long as he was judged to have talent and potential. I just hope MM and TD's judge of QB talent is better than their judge of left gaurd talent.

[BillnutinHouston]

Uh, I must be in the wrong place. I just came in here to vote and got attacked by one mother of a post.

[Guffalo]

Out of curiousity, how long did that take to write?

503807[/snapback]

Well, he started it in the spring, when DB was cut and KH was picked up, he added along the way to update.

[inkman]

Out of curiousity, how long did that take to write?

503807[/snapback]

 

A lot longer than it took me to read. I saw more than two sentences and just skipped down to the responses.

[Spun]

This record will likely get him into the HOF and the lead factor will actually be who he will be competing with as an eligible player when he retires. Unless he and Favre retire the same year he may well equal Kelly in getting in his first year of eligibility.

503794[/snapback]

 

Is that lead as in feet?

 

Fake-Fat Sunny is our resident scribe. The keyboard gets a workout. Want a thesis dial up Fake-Fat Sunny!

 

I do wonder Fake-Fat Sunny, is it coffee or Red Bull or both?

 

I did read through the analysis and much of it makes sense. I do wonder how the results of the poll would change one year from now or even a week from now, depending on the outcome in San Diego?

 

Bledsoe is different with protection. How different will JPL be with the confidence of knowing he isn't in danger of having his head battered around every other play? I hope JPL gets to experience protection before being cast off like so many other Bills quarterbacks from the past.

 

As for me, coffee and Red Bull...

[Alaska Darin]

Bledsoe is different with protection. 

504055[/snapback]

The same can be said of every QB. Think about it.

[Spun]

The same can be said of every QB.  Think about it.

504057[/snapback]

 

Fair enough. When I speak of protection I mean sufficiently beyond the bare minimum of protection. Too often opposing defenses have been in the Bills backfield way too much and way too quickly. That kind of protection is usually the type that would make snaps from center (especially when without any running backs) unwise (shotgun). With adequate protection, a quarterback with great passing (and running - not applicable with Bledsoe) skills can light up the field. Bledsoe does have a great arm, fairly good accuracy but pathetic foot skills.

 

All that is old news. I do wonder how JPL would progress it he had a couple of stud offensive linemen in front of him. A mobile qb with time to look for open receivers. Could happen!

[stuckincincy]

I think the answer is

503794[/snapback]

They should have stuck with the Idiot Bledsoe after signing him for more cash, not have done the draft day dance for JP, and positioned themselves for plucking Akron's Charlie Frye.

[stuckincincy]

Sweet, sweet jesus.  That post should be enshrined in the TSW of Fame.

503802[/snapback]

 

 

Thanks for quoting it verbatim and making us scroll, scroll, and scroll. Editing is pretty easy, ya know...

[Rayzer32]

Holy crap, you should be credited with about 350 posts for that doozy. My eyes went blurry after the 173rd paragraph.

[ieatcrayonz]

Dear Binney & Smith,

 

Please ramp up your production. FFS used a gross of cases in that thing.

[Buffal0 Bill5]

I have read many Bantam Paperback books shorter than that.

[stuckincincy]

I

503794[/snapback]

 

Decent observations, FFS..even if a bit long.

 

Not that I hope it comes to it, but Matthews would be interesting to watch. His lifetime stats show a cautious approach..sort of a West Coast offense without the added ingredients.

 

He reminds me a bit of Neil O'Donnell - who by the way was unfairly drummed out of Cincinnati when in fact he did exactly what was needed for their sad-sack '01 franchise - zero mistakes, short passes, kept the offense on the field, etc.

[jarthur31]

I don't think we score enough points with any of those QB's. We don't have a problem under center as it stands. Every QB just can't suck!!!

 

I'm betting the real issues are on the line.

[DCBongo]

Bledsoe would have been killed behind our line this year. We had to go with JP because he can run for his life!

Of course he looks like "Classic Bledsoe" with the Fing Cowboys