Quantity vs. Quality

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

A post which contrasted the Pats drafting to the Bills in terms of going for size in the trnchers, a post which said we need 3 DTs and the usual rants of folks looking for the next Peyton Manning (Ryan Leaf), Phillip Rivers (Drew Brees) or whatever (Akili Smith, Andre Ware, Rob Johnson, Billy Joe Hobert, etc.) triggered a thought for me.

 

I think that the best strategy for the Bills is one which unfotunately for us fans who are into glitz and glamour that the team should really emphasize quantity versus quality in the draft.

 

Unfortunately, picking the best seems to be at best a 50-50 proposition in terms of assessing who is gonna work out and who is gonna be a bust.

 

When you add in that even those players who ultimately produced a good career may not be on a timeline which is relevant or even workable for a draft expenditure and the unpredictable natuire of injuries, the best shot to me seems to be an emphasis on quantity versus quality.

 

A team seems just as likely to find a star that steps up (in fact I would not be shocked if there are numbers which indicate this occurence is more likely over an entire career) who signs for a cap manageable contract who develops into someone worth a bid investment based on what they produce on the field, rather than throwing the dartboard at college prospects.

 

The best teams are in fact TEAMs which are notable because some unknown stepped up to fill in for the highly drafted player who got graunched (Bledsoe/Brady) rather than picking the highly touted guy who generally disappoints (MW).

 

It has been the occurence in real life that even the highly touted guy who proves to be a great player (Manning) is simply not enough to win it all in this league (or even get there to lose so far) and actually is a drag on building a good TEAM because of his cap hit.

 

My sense is that the best advice to TD is to trade down and trade down particularly in the 1st. The biggest blot on his drafting has been when he made the commitment to reverse the several years of OL mismanagement under Butler and draft MW (if folks want to advocate that instead he should have taken McKinney feel free to waste our time with this post) when in retrospect the best thing he could have done for this team and the position was to trade down.

 

This 20/20 hindsight is meaningless in the specific but it does underscore the general approach that high draft choices generally are not worth it and when they do work out, there are cap costs to this "good" move which are not linked to producing the best results.

[Brandon]

I would agree if not for one thing: the 53 man roster limit. Trading back is a great way to acquire value throughout the draft, but do it too often and within a few years you'll find yourself with a team that is either very, very inexperienced, or you'll end up cutting a lot of mid/late picks. The latter situation, in particular, is a problem because it reduces the very value that makes trading down attractive.

[1959BillsFan]

For all the cussing I do about Williams' weight, his performance is not all his fault. A good portion of it has to do with the "Front Office". I only say this because it is the "front office" that wiffed on the first "coach". Then, letting him become a lame duck with no support i.e. Drafting McGahee that sat for the year, instead of getting some immediate help.

 

It was Greggles that that brought in two offensive systems and three o-line coordinators. Then came another switch to Mularkey with another new offensive "system" with yet another o-line coach. AND with Mularkey, they have an assistant line coach to boot.

 

In effect, there was a new coach for Williams in each of his years in Buffalo.

 

There seems to be that same lack of identity for all the players that were here during the Greggie years AND the Mularkey transition. Teague is another. BUT, there in lay another "continuity" problem, or really, lack of "continuity. How many linemen have been here for more than two years besided Williams and Teague???? NONE. Ohhhhh, I forget Sobieski, but he should be forgotten.

 

Only SUCCESSFUL lines have that "continuity" that TD talks so much of; Continuity in systems, coaches, and teammates. THIS is where the real problems lay with this line: No continuity and no consistancy make for no chemistry and no leadership. This is exactly the state of this o-line, a mess held together with a rubberband named McNally.

 

Do we really think McNally will be here forever to fix TD's personnel mistakes?? I have a feeling McNally came back here to retire, that could very well be close with the garbage that is handed down thru the ranks. At least we already have the o-line coach, he is the assistant. I would love to know which one of these coaches Williams and Teague listen to most, McNally or his assistant.

[BADOLBILZ]

(if folks want to advocate that instead he should have taken McKinney feel free to waste our time with this post) when in retrospect the best thing he could have done for this team and the position was to trade down.

 

500825[/snapback]

 

First of all, kudos to you for not wasting anyones time with your succinct posts.

 

Second, the Bills claimed to have explored trade options in the 02' draft, but had no takers. That's a problem when you are drafting high and paying better than All Pro money to a player who has never taken a snap in the NFL. Sometimes, you are sitting pretty by being later. Roethlisberger fell to Pittsburgh, Moss fell to Minnesota, Clements fell to Buffalo, these are all prime examples. Anytime you pick that high, the pick is in the spotlight. Donahoe's problem was that he went around the consensus best player at the position, talked down McKinnie and then, well you know the rest, I won't waste your time.

 

I agree that trade downs are a great way to build a roster, but not the only way. It worked so well for NE because they had a great coaching staff. If Randall Gay were on the Bills, he would probably have been cut in camp.

 

Ultimately, the NFL is a league about coaches now. If you don't have a top notch HC and staff, you need star players to lead your team(see Colts). I think Mularkey is a decent head coach with enough balls to beat guys like Schottenheimer, Cowher, Herm Edwards or Tony Dungy in the playoffs, but if he is to even get there he really needs a loaded roster. It's the perfect setup for the duo of Donahoe and Modrak to prove their brilliance, but instead they have been very hit and miss and average talent won't get the Bills in the playoffs when combined with average coaching.

 

Before it's brought up, I'm not saying Donahoe purposely hires average coaches so he can get all the credit. I just think he wants to drive the car, and that's fine. Dungy will win a Super Bowl this year with Polian at the wheel. But if you are going to go that route, you need to be slam dunking the draft and free agency and that's why TD deserves criticism.

 

I don't want TD fired, I want him to do better. Learning from his mistakes would be preferable. IMO, sometimes setback years are a springboard. In 1999 Tennessee and St. Louis both bounced back from bad 1998 seasons when they were expected to do much better. Tennessee got Jevon Kearse out of the deal, St. Louis found Kurt Warner to complement a roster loaded with skill players. Can the Bills find simialar success? I think so, but I'm thinking it's not with Kelly Holcomb, so you know who should be getting some snaps.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

First  of all, kudos to you for not wasting anyones time with your succinct posts. 

 

Second, the Bills claimed to have explored trade options in the 02' draft, but had no takers.  That's a problem when you are drafting high and paying better than All Pro money to a player who has never taken a snap in the NFL.  Sometimes, you are sitting pretty by being later.  Roethlisberger fell to Pittsburgh, Moss fell to Minnesota,  Clements fell to Buffalo, these are all prime examples.  Anytime you pick that high, the pick is in the spotlight.  Donahoe's problem was that he went around the consensus best player at the position, talked down McKinnie and then, well you know the rest, I won't waste your time.

 

I agree that trade downs are a great way to build a roster, but not the only way.  It worked so well for NE because they had a great coaching staff.  If Randall Gay were on the Bills, he would probably have been cut in camp.

 

  Ultimately, the NFL is a league about coaches now.  If you don't have a top notch HC and staff, you need star players to lead your team(see Colts).  I think Mularkey is a decent head coach with enough balls to beat guys like Schottenheimer, Cowher, Herm Edwards or Tony Dungy in the playoffs, but if he is to even get there he really needs a loaded roster.  It's the perfect setup for the duo of Donahoe and Modrak to prove their brilliance, but instead they have been very hit and miss and average talent won't get the Bills in the playoffs when combined with average coaching.

 

Before it's brought up, I'm not saying Donahoe purposely hires average coaches so he can get all the credit.  I just think he wants to drive the car, and that's fine.  Dungy will win a Super Bowl this year with Polian at the wheel.  But if you are going to go that route, you need to be slam dunking the draft and free agency and that's why TD deserves criticism. 

 

I don't want TD fired, I want him to do better.  Learning from his mistakes would be preferable.  IMO, sometimes setback years are a springboard.  In 1999 Tennessee and St. Louis both bounced back from bad 1998 seasons when they were expected to do much better.  Tennessee got Jevon Kearse out of the deal, St. Louis found Kurt Warner to complement a roster loaded with skill players.  Can the Bills find simialar success?  I think so, but I'm thinking it's not with Kelly Holcomb, so you know who should be getting some snaps.

500954[/snapback]

 

 

There's a lot of stuff in this post of interest, so in my hopes of continuing to post shorter posts than many of mine (and actually even less rambling than this one from you) I will focus on one issue that I think is of import and I have a different cut than you.

 

I agree with you that one of the big TD mistakes (and I think the biggest mistake by far actually) was his hiring of GW as HC. However, I disagree that TD hired this below average HC (IMHO) because he wanted to drive the car himself. In fact my major complaint about TD is that he did not drive the car enough during the GW tenure.

 

1. He let GW hire a coaching staff that initially did not include anybody woth HC chops or past SB coaching experience or success. He was allowed to hire a bunch of young guns and personal buddies of GW like Vinky who simply quite quickly proved to be not ready for primetime such as Sheppard who got canned with time on his contract. GW hired an O staff without the ability or experience to do better than GW and his defensive skills and we paid for this immediately.

 

2. When he canned Sheppard, there apparently was a disagreement between GW who wanted damaged former HC Kevin Killdrive and TD who wanted Clements. Rather than drive the car himself, TD relented and regardless of how you feel about Clements, Killdrive was not the answer and ended up getting fired with time left on his contract when GW went bye-bye.

 

3. GW had to admit the error of his OL management ways and take Vinky off of of OL duty, but instead he hired the equally inexperienced Ruel to take Vinky's place. I do not know how TD felt about this hire, but Ruel was one of the coaches under contract who was let go when GW left.

 

4. Who know exactly what went on inside. but TD certainaly seemed to go out and get a few of his owm buddies after the second GW season like LeBeau and former OC whats his name as RB coach. Yet, though we had this former OC on the roster and Killdrive's O was clearly unproductive by mid-2003, TD nor GW forced Killdrive to diversify his approach or simply can an unsuccessful OC as NYG had done recently.

 

My sense is not that TD wanted all the credit, it seems more to me to simply want to make sure he insulated himself from any blame and to protect himseld from getting fired by an HC he hired. GW certainly slept in the be he made, but TD seemed to have a power and the knowledge to force GW to make a better bed and he seemed to allow GW to screw up as long as TD did not share the authority and thus the blame for the situation.

 

I wish TD had in fact hired a different HC (Fox or Lewis would have been better choices in retrospect) and if he was going to hire a half HC like GW i wished he had been more controlling using him and his list and contacts as an administrative assistant and forced Clements on him and gotten as close as he could to JMac level experience at OL earlier.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

For all the cussing I do about Williams' weight, his performance is not all his fault. A good portion of it has to do with the "Front Office". I only say this because it is the "front office" that wiffed on the first "coach". Then, letting him become a lame duck with no support i.e. Drafting McGahee that sat for the year, instead of getting some immediate help.

 

It was Greggles that that brought in two offensive systems and three o-line coordinators. Then came another switch to Mularkey with another new offensive "system" with yet another o-line coach. AND with Mularkey, they have an assistant line coach to boot.

 

In effect, there was a new coach for Williams in each of his years in Buffalo.

 

There seems to be that same lack of identity for all the players that were here during the Greggie years AND the Mularkey transition. Teague is another. BUT, there in lay another "continuity" problem, or really, lack of "continuity. How many linemen have been here for more than two years besided Williams and Teague???? NONE. Ohhhhh, I forget Sobieski, but he should be forgotten.

 

Only SUCCESSFUL lines have that "continuity" that TD talks so much of; Continuity in systems, coaches, and teammates. THIS is where the real problems lay with this line: No continuity and no consistancy make for no chemistry and no leadership. This is exactly the state of this o-line, a mess held together with a rubberband named McNally.

 

Do we really think McNally will be here forever to fix TD's personnel mistakes?? I have a feeling McNally came back here to retire, that could very well be close with the garbage that is handed down thru the ranks. At least we already have the o-line coach, he is the assistant. I would love to know which one of these coaches Williams and Teague listen to most, McNally or his assistant.

500944[/snapback]

 

I agree that continuity for an OL is important and quite useful. However. one should also recognize that though a good useful thing it is not essential. Ironically enough the key case that shows this was none other than the work JMac did with NYG in recent SB year.

 

I'm not sure about the terms of service of the whole OL, but it prominently featured former Bills Dusty Ziegler and Glenn Parker (good players but no one you would mistake for Pro Bowl talent) leading the OL in their first years and under JMac design and tutelage.

 

Continuity is great but not essential to very good OL performance and actually if you are replacing not ready for primetime OL coaches like Vinky and Ruel it is not even essential for their to be a drastic upgrade of the OL from pathetic and inconsistent at best in 201. 02, 03 to agequate and much better in 04.