finknottle Posted November 11, 2005 Posted November 11, 2005 The best solution might be to follow the Patriots philosophy no matter what you think of your starting QB. That is draft a late rounder virtually every year & hope you find a gem. The Patriots have drafted 5 QBs on day 2 in the last 7 years. So far only Brady has worked out, which considering the rounds picked, that isn't bad. Since the odds of getting a decent player in the 6th or 7th are less than 10% (source Casserly when he took Henson to trade his rights & said a 6th rounder is 10% ) why not try for a QB just about every year & see what happens. Most of the time the 6th & 7th round guys only last a year or 2 anyway. 499187[/snapback] I agree completely. I cranked out the statistics earlier which showed that 50% of first round qb's are essentially busts, and only a third are acceptable long-term starters in the league. IMO you can't waste a first rounder on a guy who more likely than not will be off your roster in four years having contributed no pro-bowl seasons. The only solution is to buy a veteren (not my preference) or draft a qb every year with a pick you can do without, and hope you eventually find a gem.
ganesh Posted November 11, 2005 Posted November 11, 2005 I agree completely. I cranked out the statistics earlier which showed that 50% of first round qb's are essentially busts, and only a third are acceptable long-term starters in the league. IMO you can't waste a first rounder on a guy who more likely than not will be off your roster in four years having contributed no pro-bowl seasons. The only solution is to buy a veteren (not my preference) or draft a qb every year with a pick you can do without, and hope you eventually find a gem. 500494[/snapback] What is the % first round RBs that are busts? What is the % first round WRs that are busts? What is the % first round OL that are busts? What is the % first round DL that are busts? What is the % first round LB that are busts?......... They are all probably in the 50% range.......The average career span of a player in the NFL is about 3 years.....Not every player selected in the 1st round of the NFL serves out a 10 year career.... The solution is to draft and groom your own players that will fit your system and find the right FAs that will fit your system...That has been the practice at New England the last 5 years and they have 3 SBs to show for it....That has been the practice at Philadelpha and they have 4 NFC championships to show for it.
finknottle Posted November 12, 2005 Posted November 12, 2005 What is the % first round RBs that are busts?What is the % first round WRs that are busts? What is the % first round OL that are busts? What is the % first round DL that are busts? What is the % first round LB that are busts?......... They are all probably in the 50% range.......The average career span of a player in the NFL is about 3 years.....Not every player selected in the 1st round of the NFL serves out a 10 year career.... The solution is to draft and groom your own players that will fit your system and find the right FAs that will fit your system...That has been the practice at New England the last 5 years and they have 3 SBs to show for it....That has been the practice at Philadelpha and they have 4 NFC championships to show for it. 500579[/snapback] Fair question. I don't know the answer but expect it to be much lower for each category. One key factor: when players in these other positions, a wr or a dl say, don't live up to expectations, they usually still contribute as the #2 receiver or the lesser guy in the rotation. They don't wind up as busts in the way that a qb who isn't starter material does.
finknottle Posted November 12, 2005 Posted November 12, 2005 The average career span of a player in the NFL is about 3 years.....Not every player selected in the 1st round of the NFL serves out a 10 year career.... 500579[/snapback] Technical footnote: the often-cited 3.4 year figure comes from the players association. I for one can't pin down what it is counting. I think they are averaging the length of career of anybody who signs an NFL contract; two thirds of those guys are gone before the season begins. So if instead you ask what the average career length is of somebody who is on an opening-day roster or practice squad, the answer will be higher. Consider the Bills, whom nobody considers a particularly old team. A quick skim of the roster - nfl.com lists 67 players - shows that the average experience at the beginning of the season was 3.6 years. So if everybody's career was ended at the end of the year like some posters suggest, their careers would have averaged 4.6 years. Clearly, first round picks are probably going to have even greater longevity than lower round picks. I havn't looked into it, but if I had to guess it would be around 8 years.
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted November 12, 2005 Posted November 12, 2005 What is the % first round RBs that are busts?What is the % first round WRs that are busts? What is the % first round OL that are busts? What is the % first round DL that are busts? What is the % first round LB that are busts?......... They are all probably in the 50% range.......The average career span of a player in the NFL is about 3 years.....Not every player selected in the 1st round of the NFL serves out a 10 year career.... The solution is to draft and groom your own players that will fit your system and find the right FAs that will fit your system...That has been the practice at New England the last 5 years and they have 3 SBs to show for it....That has been the practice at Philadelpha and they have 4 NFC championships to show for it. 500579[/snapback] The other item to figure in here is the slotted contract a 1st rounder will get. Factoring this in I think TDs work in the draft looks even stronger as trading the 1st rounder for value seems by far to me to be the best thing to do looking at the chances for success. 2001- Trades down the 1st pick and gets an extra pick which he uses on a player who made the Pro Bowl. Even better, he still gets the first CB chosen with the lower pick (who now gets slotted at a lower cap hit) and that choice ends up making the Pro Bowl. 2002- By far the biggest draft mistake TD made picking a player who may well end up being thought of as a bust. Given that the other LT deemed a rational pick here looks even worse, the 20/20 hindsight best move if you want to fill our LT need would be to trade down again and pick Levi what's his name if you can. The best thing TD did with a #1 pick this year was trading the 2003 #1 for Bledsoe who even though he sucked and deserved to go for his horrendous 2003 made and deserved his Pro Bowl berth for his 2002 play which we got for nothing lost in 2002. 2003- Perhaps TDs best draft work as he again turned nothing into something taggin PP and got a replacement 1st out of AT. He again manipulated this pick masterfully as he used it to take McGahee whose injurt allowed TD to negotiate a cap friendly deal and even better he read the market perfectly and got our need DE in the second round. 2004- Evans was an outstanding pick his rookie year (despite his sophomore jinx in the first half of this season. Even better he traded the 2005 1st for a pick he used on Losman who clearly was ranked better than the QBs available in 2005 and who needed )and needs the work of being picked before we needed to use him. 2005- no pick. I think overall the stats you present and the experience of the Bills under TD shows why drafting a player in the first is quite likely to be a mistake and that by trading of this pick a team can get great value.
Bill from NYC Posted November 12, 2005 Posted November 12, 2005 2004- Evans was an outstanding pick his rookie year (despite his sophomore jinx in the first half of this season. Even better he traded the 2005 1st for a pick he used on Losman who clearly was ranked better than the QBs available in 2005 and who needed )and needs the work of being picked before we needed to use him. 2005- no pick. 500745[/snapback] Even better, huh? FFS I have tried, but I cannot even approach figuring out how you could even possibly arrive at this conclusion. This does not mean that I am necessarily correct mind you, but your logic in the above does fully escape me. TD did NOT trade a 1st for Losman per se. He swapped firsts, which cost the Buffalo Bills 7 slots in round 1. In addition, he handed over a 2nd and a 5th. Now that this is clear, let's look at the bang for the buck, shall we? JP sat out more than 1/2 of 04 due to an injury (a NOT unfamiliar circumstance for TD draft picks). He was touted to be a replacement for a qb who had a decent season in 04 and is having a very good one in 05. When JP took the field, he flat out sucked. Nothing less. He sucked; and he sucked SO much that he was (and is) benched for a journeyman. If you wish to make the case that despite all of our needs that cry out at us, we are better off for this ill advised, botched deal, please do. I love the dialogue. My take is that it MIGHT turn out well. Personally, I doubt it, whereas I have never liked this trade. That said, I admit and do hope that it could possibly turn out well. My point is that imo, there is not a single way that you, nor anyone else can make a case for the premise that the Losman trade was a good deal for the Buffalo Bills Football as the "wonderboy" languishes on the bench. At the very least not yet.
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