The hidden danger of not playing your young QB.

[Albany,n.y.]

Let's go back to 1998. Rob Johnson gets hurt, doesn't play much after Flutie takes over. 1999, Flutie starts the regular season & Johnson starts the last regular season game & the playoff game at Tennessee. So at the end of the 1999 season, the team feels pretty comfortable at QB, because they think Rob is going to be a good starter & Flutie a darn good backup. Add Van Pelt to the mix & they're all smiles at QB, looking for another QB is the furthest thing from their minds.

Now let's change the scenario: Say Wade believes in his "Wade Phillips/Rob Johnson era" He starts Rob as soon as he's ready in 1998 and starts him in 1999. Eric Moulds gets pissed. In 1999 Price joins him as a disgruntled WR. At some point something becomes obvious to Wade-Rob is a bust and Flutie is the immediate future at QB, with a need for a developmental QB of the future.

Fast forward to the 2000 draft. The Bills feel Flutie can get the job done, and AVP can be his backup. So say in about the 5th or 6th round they take a shot at a QB who, with proper coaching, could develop into Flutie's replacement. So, in the 5th round there are 2 "maybe" QBs on the board. Marc Bulger & Tom Brady. Butler, decides to take a flyer on 1 of them, let's say Brady. Now fast forward to 2005. We haven't spent 1st rounders on Bledsoe & Losman & who knows how good we are with an OL & DL taken with those 1st rounders.

Reality again-we're in 2005, not playing JP Losman. Say we continue to hang in the division race, because the division is so bad-not because we're any good, we don't know what we've got at QB. Say JP is a bust, but gets lucky by playing lights out the last game of the season against a run for the bus Jets team. Suddenly, JP is 1999 Rob, and we're set at QB with JP & Holcomb. We don't draft any QBs. Meanwhile, around round 5, there are 2 NFL future starting QBs, maybe even a future HOFer. We're fat & happy at QB and instead, choose a player like Sammy Morris in the 5th or a Leif Larsen clone in the 6th.

It's now 2011 and the Bills still suck.

That's the hidden danger in not knowing if your young QB is good or a bust-due to lack of playing time. Obviously the danger is real if he is a bust, because not only do you delay finding out by seeing him in a game or two-where he actually might play well, but you miss out on the gem that could actually solve the QB situation.

For the long term good of the team, JP must play at least 6 more games, so we can devise a plan for the QB spot, one way or another.

[Mark VI]

When KC's LJ and SD's LT combine for 400 yards rushing over the next 2 weeks, the playoff fantasy will vanish and JP will be back in.

[SDS]

When KC's LJ and SD's LT combine for 400 yards rushing over the next 2 weeks, the playoff fantasy will vanish and JP will be back in. 

499000[/snapback]

 

So, you think our defense is going to pick it up a notch???

[Johnny]

according to Mularkey he can progress from the bench...so just wait till 2011 then put him back in.......by then he should be a great quarterback

[Risin]

So, you think our defense is going to pick it up a notch??? 

499014[/snapback]

 

 

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I think the summary of the QB events and reactions which start this thread leaves out some key points which influenced the decisions Butler made and is just simply correct in stating that the situation was all smiles at QB regarding any part of Fluties time here.

 

The recitation leaves out the mistakes and impacts of:

 

1. Butler, Ralph and the Bills totally miscalculating how long Jimbo would last and contribute as a Bill. This began a series of bad moves and over-reactions nad investments at QN that led to Butler moving on. It led Ralph to renege on an agreement he made with Jimbo to resign him to a big contract and instead give him a million bucks to walk away.

 

2. Having not made a draft pick to groom a replacement for Kelly when they should have they instead drafted Todd C, higher than he deserved and then rushed him along when he needed work to train the happy-feet out of him if possible.

 

3. When it was clear TC could not do the job, they traded a 3rd fir Hobert who turned out to be a jerk whom they cut in mid-season.

 

4. They did a great job scouting and acquiring Flutie, but then failed to believe in their own judgment as they gave RJ a guaranteed big contract that essentially made it a lie when they promised Flutie a real shot at starting. Even worse, they failed to see right from the start that RJ was injury prone (he had one good start for Jax and then went out with an injury.

 

Even worse Butler signed a dumb contract with Flotie which rolled his achieved incentives into his base pay and forced the Bills to sign him to a long term deal to distribute all the obtained bonueses.

 

There was no hidden danger. The mistakes were made with full knowledge by the Bills and not hodden at all.

[Albany,n.y.]

The hidden danger is that if you're counting on a bust, but don't realize he's a bust, you don't draft his replacement. If JP busts & we don't draft a mid round QB or 2 this year, I'm going to join the angry mob calling for TD's firing.

[JDG]

We'll see if Losman gets back in this year or not.... but at worst we're talking about a one year difference in giving up on Losman or not.

 

That's the fallacy in your analogy - what has given the Bills troubles all these years was *not* playing Flutie in 1998, it was then investing in the Williams - Bledsoe - Henry - Moulds - Reed team that ending up completely busting.

 

JDG

[AKC]

So say in about the 5th or 6th round they take a shot at a QB who, with proper coaching, could develop into Flutie's replacement.  So, in the 5th round there are 2 "maybe" QBs on the board.  Marc Bulger & Tom Brady.  Butler, decides to take a flyer on 1 of them, let's say Brady.  Now fast forward to 2005.  We haven't spent 1st rounders on Bledsoe & Losman & who knows how good we are with an OL & DL taken with those 1st rounders.

Reality again-we're in 2005, not playing JP Losman.  Say we continue to hang in the division race, because the division is so bad-not because we're any good, we don't know what we've got at QB.  Say JP is a bust, but gets lucky by playing lights out the last game of the season against a run for the bus Jets team.  Suddenly, JP is 1999 Rob, and we're set at QB with JP & Holcomb.  We don't draft any QBs.  Meanwhile, around round 5, there are 2 NFL future starting QBs, maybe even a future HOFer.  We're fat & happy at QB and instead, choose a player like Sammy Morris in the 5th or a Leif Larsen clone in the 6th. 

 

498994[/snapback]

 

If I'm reading this right your premise suggests someone has crystal balls that allow them to tell the one promising 5th or later round QB from the 25 who will never start an NFL game?

[JDG]

For example, let's say that as soon as Donahoe arrives, he immediately decides that Rob Johnson is not the answer, and so decides to pursue a QB in the draft, here are the drafted QB's over those two years:

 

2002 1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State

2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon

3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane

4 3 16 81 Josh McCown Cardinals Sam Houston State

5 4 10 108 David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina

6 4 19 117 Rohan Davey Patriots Louisiana State

7 5 2 137 Randy Fasani Panthers Stanford

8 5 23 158 Kurt Kittner Falcons Illinois

9 5 28 163 Brandon Doman 49ers Brigham Young

10 5 29 164 Craig Nall Packers Northwestern State

11 6 14 186 J.T. O'Sullivan Saints California-Davis

12 6 33 205 Steve Bellisari Rams Ohio State

13 7 5 216 Seth Burford Chargers Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo

14 7 21 232 Jeff Kelly Seahawks Southern Mississippi

15 7 24 235 Ronald Curry Raiders North Carolina

16 7 25 236 Wes Pate Ravens Stephen F. Austin

2001 1 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech

2 2 1 32 Drew Brees Chargers Purdue

3 2 22 53 Quincy Carter Cowboys Georgia

4 2 28 59 Marques Tuiasosopo Raiders Washington

5 4 11 106 Chris Weinke Panthers Florida State

6 4 14 109 Sage Rosenfels Redskins Iowa State

7 4 30 125 Jesse Palmer Giants Florida

8 5 18 149 Mike McMahon Lions Rutgers

9 5 24 155 A.J. Feeley Eagles Oregon

10 6 9 172 Josh Booty Seahawks Louisiana State

11 6 14 177 Josh Heupel Dolphins Oklahoma

 

 

The best ones on the board from those years whom the Bills had any shot at (obvious Carr is off the table) are Quincy Carter and Rohan Davey - who are both available, as well as Josh McCown, Sage Rosenfels, and JT O'Sullivan.... but all in all, not a lot to work with.

 

And as I mentioned earlier this week - if the Patriots were such geniuses when it comes to the draft, would they really have taken Dave Stachelski ahead of Tom Brady???? In other words, if drafting the next Tom Brady is your standard - well, good luck to ya.... because sometimes that sort of thing *just happens* and there isn't any explanation for it.

 

JDG

[Frez]

So, you think our defense is going to pick it up a notch??? 

499014[/snapback]

 

 

Now that is some funny sh--!

[Alaska Darin]

Terry Bradshaw would have been a one year wonder in today's NFL.

 

Sad.

[Mark VI]

Terry Bradshaw would have been a one year wonder in today's NFL.

 

Sad.

499122[/snapback]

 

You mean making definitive conclusions on a QB after 4 starts and throwing him under the bus, isn't sharp thinking ? Many here have told me otherwise.

[Albany,n.y.]

For example, let's say that as soon as Donahoe arrives, he immediately decides that Rob Johnson is not the answer, and so decides to pursue a QB in the draft, here are the drafted QB's over those two years:

 

2002 1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State

  2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon

  3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane

  4 3 16 81 Josh McCown Cardinals Sam Houston State

  5 4 10 108 David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina

  6 4 19 117 Rohan Davey Patriots Louisiana State

  7 5 2 137 Randy Fasani Panthers Stanford

  8 5 23 158 Kurt Kittner Falcons Illinois

  9 5 28 163 Brandon Doman 49ers Brigham Young

  10 5 29 164 Craig Nall Packers Northwestern State

  11 6 14 186 J.T. O'Sullivan Saints California-Davis

  12 6 33 205 Steve Bellisari Rams Ohio State

  13 7 5 216 Seth Burford Chargers Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo

  14 7 21 232 Jeff Kelly Seahawks Southern Mississippi

  15 7 24 235 Ronald Curry Raiders North Carolina

  16 7 25 236 Wes Pate Ravens Stephen F. Austin

2001 1 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech

  2 2 1 32 Drew Brees Chargers Purdue

  3 2 22 53 Quincy Carter Cowboys Georgia

  4 2 28 59 Marques Tuiasosopo Raiders Washington

  5 4 11 106 Chris Weinke Panthers Florida State

  6 4 14 109 Sage Rosenfels Redskins Iowa State

  7 4 30 125 Jesse Palmer Giants Florida

  8 5 18 149 Mike McMahon Lions Rutgers

  9 5 24 155 A.J. Feeley Eagles Oregon

  10 6 9 172 Josh Booty Seahawks Louisiana State

  11 6 14 177 Josh Heupel Dolphins Oklahoma

The best ones on the board from those years whom the Bills had any shot at (obvious Carr is off the table) are Quincy Carter and Rohan Davey - who are both available, as well as Josh McCown, Sage Rosenfels, and JT O'Sullivan.... but all in all, not a lot to work with.

 

And as I mentioned earlier this week - if the Patriots were such geniuses when it comes to the draft, would they really have taken Dave Stachelski ahead of Tom Brady????    In other words, if drafting the next Tom Brady is your standard - well, good luck to ya.... because sometimes that sort of thing *just happens* and there isn't any explanation for it.

 

JDG

499052[/snapback]

The best solution might be to follow the Patriots philosophy no matter what you think of your starting QB. That is draft a late rounder virtually every year & hope you find a gem. The Patriots have drafted 5 QBs on day 2 in the last 7 years. So far only Brady has worked out, which considering the rounds picked, that isn't bad. Since the odds of getting a decent player in the 6th or 7th are less than 10% (source Casserly when he took Henson to trade his rights & said a 6th rounder is 10% ) why not try for a QB just about every year & see what happens. Most of the time the 6th & 7th round guys only last a year or 2 anyway.

[SDS]

why not try for a QB just about every year & see what happens.  Most of the time the 6th & 7th round guys only last a year or 2 anyway.

499187[/snapback]

 

because you don't know if you have a Tom Brady or a Stoney Case until he plays in real games...

[Moose]

according to Mularkey he can progress from the bench...so just wait till 2011 then put him back in.......by then he should be a great quarterback

499016[/snapback]

 

Hmmm... if you applied that "progress from the bench" philosophy to Todd Collins, he should be Montana, Elway, Kelly and Marino all rolled into one by now! Let's hope he doesn't play this weekend!

[Bill from NYC]

I wonder what the danger is of not getting the football to your "young" wide receiver.

Last season, Evans showed good hands and even better breakaway speed. He got the ball into the endzone, and softened up defenses.

We used the 13th pick of a draft to get him, and he certainly looked like a decent pick, especially with Moulds getting old.

Now, Moulds is that much older. He might not even be here next season, and Evans is not getting enough tosses his way, or so it seems.

In summary, they are having trouble scoring points, yet they are not getting the football to the receiver who is most likely to do so.

Hard to figure, ya know?

[obie_wan]

Let's go back to 1998.  Rob Johnson gets hurt, doesn't play much after Flutie takes over.  1999, Flutie starts the regular season & Johnson starts the last regular season game & the playoff game at Tennessee.  So at the end of the 1999 season, the team feels pretty comfortable at QB, because they think Rob is going to be a good starter & Flutie a darn good backup.  Add Van Pelt to the mix & they're all smiles at QB, looking for another QB is the furthest thing from  their minds. 

Now let's change the scenario:  Say Wade believes in his "Wade Phillips/Rob Johnson era"  He starts Rob as soon as he's ready in 1998 and starts him in 1999.  Eric Moulds gets pissed.  In 1999 Price joins him as a disgruntled WR.  At some point something becomes obvious to Wade-Rob is a bust and Flutie is the immediate future at QB, with a need for a developmental QB of the future.

Fast forward to the 2000 draft.  The Bills feel Flutie can get the job done, and AVP can be his backup.  So say in about the 5th or 6th round they take a shot at a QB who, with proper coaching, could develop into Flutie's replacement.  So, in the 5th round there are 2 "maybe" QBs on the board.  Marc Bulger & Tom Brady.  Butler, decides to take a flyer on 1 of them, let's say Brady.  Now fast forward to 2005.  We haven't spent 1st rounders on Bledsoe & Losman & who knows how good we are with an OL & DL taken with those 1st rounders.

Reality again-we're in 2005, not playing JP Losman.  Say we continue to hang in the division race, because the division is so bad-not because we're any good, we don't know what we've got at QB.  Say JP is a bust, but gets lucky by playing lights out the last game of the season against a run for the bus Jets team.  Suddenly, JP is 1999 Rob, and we're set at QB with JP & Holcomb.  We don't draft any QBs.  Meanwhile, around round 5, there are 2 NFL future starting QBs, maybe even a future HOFer.  We're fat & happy at QB and instead, choose a player like Sammy Morris in the 5th or a Leif Larsen clone in the 6th. 

It's now 2011 and the Bills still suck. 

That's the hidden danger in not knowing if your young QB is good or a bust-due to lack of playing time.  Obviously the danger is real if he is a bust, because not only do you delay finding out by seeing him in a game or two-where he actually might play well, but you miss out on the gem that could actually solve the QB situation. 

For the long term good of the team, JP must play at least 6 more games, so we can devise a plan for the QB spot, one way or another.

498994[/snapback]

 

since you can't predict injuries, the answer is to draft a project QB in EVERY draft.

 

If you hit, you have a starter,

 

If you hit the lottery with multiple QBS, you have trade bait.

[Bill from NYC]

because you don't know if you have a Tom Brady or a Stoney Case until he plays in real games...

499202[/snapback]

 

Of course you are correct, but many of these guys do get to play because of injuries. We all know the Marcia story, and Warner got in because Trent Green went down.

I guess we are spoiled wrt to injuries to our (starting) qb once RJ left. AVP did get nicked up at the end and Travis Brown came in, but it mattered little.

I thought that the Bills 05 starter would be determined by who got flattened first, and this might still be the case.

[The Jokeman]

The best solution might be to follow the Patriots philosophy no matter what you think of your starting QB.  That is draft a late rounder virtually every year & hope you find a gem.  The Patriots have drafted 5 QBs on day 2 in the last 7 years. So far only Brady has worked out, which considering the rounds picked, that isn't bad.  Since the odds of getting a decent player in the 6th or 7th are less than 10% (source Casserly when he took Henson to trade his rights & said a 6th rounder is 10% ) why not try for a QB just about every year & see what happens.  Most of the time the 6th & 7th round guys only last a year or 2 anyway.

499187[/snapback]

Tom Donahoe did this in the early part of his career in Pittsburgh and was marginally successful.

 

1999 None

1998 None

1997 None

1996 Round 6 Spence Fischer QB Duke

1995 Round 2 Kordell Stewart QB Colorado*

1994 Round 6 Jim Miller QB Michigan State

1993 Round 8 Alex Van Pelt QB Pittsburgh

1992 Round 12 Cornelius Benton QB Connecticut

1991 None

 

*Obviously 2nd Round isn't considered a low pick but I was listing all the QBs that Donahoe drafted while with the Steelers.