It's more complicated then being 1 game out

[Mikie2times]

In order to win the East we need to either have more division wins then the Patriots or beat them with our overall record. A tie won't cut it even if we beat the Patriots the second time around because they will win the common opponent tiebreaker.

 

Here's a link called Football Outsiders, they break down games by tallying up performance in the most critical areas of football. For explanation go to the site, but the point I'm trying to convey is these rankings are about as accurate as they get. They also run baseballprospectus.com, which is baseballs best prediction publication, like I said these guys know their crap, and it's free.

 

According to them the Patriots have established their 4-4 record against the 4th most difficult schedule in the NFL, and that doesn't count the Colts game. This SOS is calculated by their overall team rankings which are even more significant performance indicators then W/L. Conversely Buffalo has tallied their 3-5 mark against the leagues 29th ranked schedule.

 

For the final 8 games the Patriots and Bills schedules take a drastic flip flop. The Bills play the leagues 2nd hardest schedule, while the Patriots play the leagues 24 ranked schedule. Unlike last year we don't have a cake walk in the second half, and if we couldn't tie the Patriots threw 8 with the schedules we played how the hell are we going to make up two games when the schedules flip flop against us?

 

The never stop fighting attitude showed by some on here is admirable, and many of you feel that that attitude can only be conveyed if Holcomb is starting, but this is a time that the %’s drastically favor us getting our young QB some reps on the field. If he starts to have a Palmer like game or two towards the end of the year at least we know we have something, and can take that into next season. If he crashes and burns, and shows no signs of progress then at least we know what we don't have, and will get an early pick in the draft.

 

Either way its better then missing the playoffs, and further clouding our QB situation next year.

[Dawgg]

I have been all for KH, but this is the first argument that could convince me otherwise. Good post.

 

In order to win the East we need to either have more division wins then the Patriots or beat them with our overall record. A tie won't cut it even if we beat the Patriots the second time around because they will win the common opponent tiebreaker. 

 

Here's a link called Football Outsiders, they break down games by tallying up performance in the most critical areas of football.  For explanation go to the site, but the point I'm trying to convey is these rankings are about as accurate as they get. They also run baseballprospectus.com, which is baseballs best prediction publication, like I said these guys know their crap, and it's free.

 

According to them the Patriots have established their 4-4 record against the 4th most difficult schedule in the NFL, and that doesn't count the Colts game.  This SOS is calculated by their overall team rankings which are even more significant performance indicators then W/L. Conversely Buffalo has tallied their 3-5 mark against the leagues 29th ranked schedule.

 

For the final 8 games the Patriots and Bills schedules take a drastic flip flop. The Bills play the leagues 2nd hardest schedule, while the Patriots play the leagues 24 ranked schedule. Unlike last year we don't have a cake walk in the second half, and if we couldn't tie the Patriots threw 8 with the schedules we played how the hell are we going to make up two games when the schedules flip flop against us?

 

The never stop fighting attitude showed by some on here is admirable, and many of you feel that that attitude can only be conveyed if Holcomb is starting, but this is a time that the %’s drastically favor us getting our young QB some reps on the field.  If he starts to have a Palmer like game or two towards the end of the year at least we know we have something, and can take that into next season. If he crashes and burns, and shows no signs of progress then at least we know what we don't have, and will get an early pick in the draft. 

 

Either way its better then missing the playoffs, and further clouding our QB situation next year.

497993[/snapback]

[stuckincincy]

Here's a link called Football Outsiders, they break down games by tallying up performance in the most critical areas of football.  For explanation go to the site, but the point I'm trying to convey is these rankings are about as accurate as they get. They also run baseballprospectus.com, which is baseballs best prediction publication, like I said these guys know their crap, and it's free.

 

According to them the Patriots have established their 4-4 record against the 4th most difficult schedule in the NFL, and that doesn't count the Colts game.  This SOS is calculated by their overall team rankings which are even more significant performance indicators then W/L. Conversely Buffalo has tallied their 3-5 mark against the leagues 29th ranked schedule.

 

 

497993[/snapback]

 

FBOutsiders is a nice site.

 

And yep, IND, CIN, etc. all have a nice record against weaker clubs - and DEN has had a bunch of home dates. Kudos to the leaders, though - beating the teams they should beat etc.

 

 

 

I look for an interesting 2nd half of the season.

[Tortured Soul]

True, we're not favorites, but that's why they play the games.

 

Almost any scenario that has us tying the Pats at the end of the season would give us the tie breaker. For example, say we lose at CIN and SD and tie the Pats at 9-7 (Pats lose to us, KC, maybe MIA). Then we win the division tie breaker. Say the Pats' third loss is vs. TB, then we'd still win on conference record.

 

Here's how I look at it: There's no way to make the playoffs without winning that second game vs. the Pats. So, consider us both 4-5 with us likely holding the tie breaker. That means seven games apiec and all we need to do is tie them. So our schedule is tougher? Bring it on.

 

And remember, in the past two seasons, 3 of the 4 Pats losses have been against teams with losing records. So, don't pencil them in for any victories yet.

 

That said, start JP.

[Mikie2times]

Almost any scenario that has us tying the Pats at the end of the season would give us the tie breaker.  For example, say we lose at CIN and SD and tie the Pats at 9-7 (Pats lose to us, KC, maybe MIA).  Then we win the division tie breaker.  Say the Pats' third loss is vs. TB, then we'd still win on conference record. 

 

That said, start JP.

498104[/snapback]

 

 

That’s just not correct, if anything it's the other way around. What it comes down to it in order to win the division record we would need a sweep of the Dolphins and Jets away, beat New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) at home, and hope New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) loses 1 of the 4 games between the Dolphins, or Jets.

 

If we tie in division standings and overall record, AND beat New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) the tie breaker will still go to the Patriots. AFC conference record is after common opponents in breaking up division ties, this rule was instituted with NFL realignment. Right now our common opponent record is Bills 0-4, Patriots 2-3, even worse is we now take the leagues best teams, while New Bruschi (We're not worthy!)’s has already accounted for them. The rest of our common games sound like this KC, @SD, CAR, DEN, while New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) are NO, @KC, TB, to have any chance of tieing NE in common opponents we will need to win 3 of those games, and hope New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) only wins 2.

 

Again we don't match up to New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) in any tiebreaker scenario, are already a game back, and play an infinitely more difficult schedule. Starting JP is the best decision the Bills can make at this point.

[Tortured Soul]

That’s just not correct, if anything it's the other way around.  What it comes down to it in order to win the division record we would need a sweep of the Dolphins and Jets away, beat New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) (We're not worthy!) at home, and hope New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) (We're not worthy!) loses 1 of the 4 games between the Dolphins, or Jets. 

 

If we tie in division standings and overall record, AND beat New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) (We're not worthy!) the tie breaker will still go to the Patriots. AFC conference record is after common opponents in breaking up division ties, this rule was instituted with NFL realignment. Right now our common opponent record is Bills 0-4, Patriots 2-3, even worse is we now take the leagues best teams, while New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) (We're not worthy!)’s has already accounted for them.  The rest of our common games sound like this KC, @SD, CAR, DEN, while New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) (We're not worthy!) are  NO, @KC, TB, to have any chance of tieing NE in common opponents we will need to win 3 of those games, and hope New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) (We're not worthy!) only wins 2.

 

Again we don't match up to New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) (We're not worthy!) in any tiebreaker scenario, are already a game back, and play an infinitely more difficult schedule. Starting JP is the best decision the Bills can make at this point.

498132[/snapback]

You need to think of if a tie will happen, how it would happen. Odds are it would involve a Pats loss to either the Jets or the Fins, with the Bills sweeping their division games. But, if we tie somehow and the Pats sweep the Jets and Fins, then think in terms of non-common opponents to make it easier to see common opponents records. Those teams are CIN and HOU for us, IND and PIT for them. So, if we lose to CIN, we'd each be 1-1 and on to the conference record tie breaker, which we'd win since we already have 3 out-of-conference losses. So whether or not you think we will tie, the most likely scenarios in which we do give us the tie breaker.

[Tortured Soul]

Right now our common opponent record is Bills 0-4, Patriots 2-3

498132[/snapback]

I don't know where you get this number from because the Jets and Fins are common opponents which we have beaten. The only thing I could think of is that since the Pats haven't played them yet, they don't yet count, but that's pretty short-sighted.

[Mikie2times]

I don't know where you get this number from because the Jets and Fins are common opponents which we have beaten.  The only thing I could think of is that since the Pats haven't played them yet, they don't yet count, but that's pretty short-sighted.

498170[/snapback]

 

Please read NFL tiebreaking procedures before you begin to tell me what I don't know about. Why the hell would you include division games in the common opponent record if division record comes before common opponent? You include the record of the Bills and Patriots in games OUTSIDE the division that both teams have or will play. As I stated the Bills are 0-4 against teams the Patriots have, or will play, and New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) 2-3 in games the Bills have, or will play. I even posted the remaining games to show how unlikely it is we overtake the Patriots in that tiebreaker.

[Tortured Soul]

Please read NFL tiebreaking procedures before you begin to tell me what I don't know about. Why the hell would you include division games in the common opponent record if division record comes before common opponent? You include the record of the Bills and Patriots in games OUTSIDE the division that both teams have or will play. As I stated the Bills are 0-4 against teams the Patriots have, or will play, and New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) (We're not worthy!) (We're not worthy!) 2-3 in games the Bills have, or will play. I even posted the remaining games to show how unlikely it is we overtake the Patriots in that tiebreaker.

498193[/snapback]

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

 

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

 

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

 

I did read them, and nowhere does it say that common games doesn't include division opponents. Lets not get belligerent. We read this differently. Is there a definitive answer?

[The Avenger]

As much as I want the Bills to do well NOW (man, I'm sick of waiting), I think they need to start JP ASAP and take their lumps now and better prepare for the future.

 

If you look at the standings we are still right in the race, but if you watch the team you'll see it probably isn't going to happen.

 

Schedules aside, the Bills had 2 great opportunities to take the lead in the AFC East and blew both of them - all of a sudden we are going to start capitalizing on opportunities? I don't think so.

 

If JP gets some playing time at least we get something out of the season. If we end the season out of the playoffs AND JP is still as green as he is now I'm going to be ripped. The plan is already a year behind - JP was supposed tp play some last season and be ready this season. Get on with it already...

[Albany,n.y.]

It's painful to say this, but I expect Miami to have a better record than the Bills at the end of the season, so it may not matter if NE ties us, because if they do, the Dolphins will win the division.

If JP plays well in the 2nd half, we know we've got a QB. If JP plays like he did in games 2-4, we know we have to have a plan in case JP is a bust. If Holcomb starts most of the remaining games, we know nothing about what to do with the QB position.

[Mikie2times]

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

 

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

 

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

 

I did read them, and nowhere does it say that common games doesn't include division opponents.  Lets not get belligerent. We read this differently.  Is there a definitive answer?

498196[/snapback]

 

Yes their is a definitive answer, and I apologize for coming off so harsh, I just thought everybody had this figured out with the same situation between us and the Jets last year.

 

What this says is that common opponent is after Division games, so that means for common opponent to even come into effect you’re already assuming a tie in games played within the division. Your point was that the Bills hold a major tiebreaker advantage with the Patriots, even if they do tie NE in games played within the division. If we both finish with the same division record, we won't win the common opponent tiebreaker.

 

Here is a list of the common opponents we both have

 

Oakland- Patriots Win, Bills Lose

Carolina- Patriots Lose, Bills yet to play

Chargers- Patriots Lose, Bills yet to play

Atlanta- Patriots Win, Bills Lose

Denver- Patriots Lose, Bills yet to play

New Orleans- Patriots yet to play, Bills lose

Tampa Bay- Patriots yet to play, Bills Lose

Kansas City- Patriots and Bills yet to play

 

Bills 0-4, Patriots 2-3

[Tortured Soul]

Well, what other scenario could you see the Bills tying in? I think it would have to be that the Bills win 3/4, losing in SD, and the Pats - if they don't lose a division game - lose at KC and maybe TB, which would mean we'd be tied at 3-5, and on to the next tie breaker, coference record, which the Bills would win.

 

And that Jets tie-breaker last year - I thought that was a three-way situation.

[Mikie2times]

Well, what other scenario could you see the Bills tying in?  I think it would have to be that the Bills win 3/4, losing in SD, and the Pats - if they don't lose a division game - lose at KC and maybe TB, which would mean we'd be tied at 3-5, and on to the next tie breaker, coference record, which the Bills would win.

 

And that Jets tie-breaker last year - I thought that was a three-way situation.

498300[/snapback]

 

The entire point of this post was that it was extremely unlikely that this would happen given the schedules, and that it's beneficial to go with JP for those reasons. You've been implying this entire time that were in "good" shape for the tiebreakers, but only now are saying that if we keep winning, and the Patriots keep losing, we'll be in good shape. I never factored that assumption in my logic, because my entire argument was we couldn't do what you think we can, and what have we done to show you we can?

 

We have 3 wins against teams with a combined record of 6-18. Now all of a sudden you think this team is capable of winning 3 of 4 against teams that are a combined 22-11? At the same time, we still have to beat the Patriots, and hope they go 1 in 3 against teams that are 12-13, with two at home, and TB without their QB?

 

The only other option is hoping we beat New England, sweep the Jets and Dolphins away, and get one loss by NE in any of the four Jets/Dolphins games. Either way in both scenarios we must make up a game on NE as they play the 28th most difficult schedule over the last 8, and we play the 2nd most difficult schedule over the last 8.

 

As for the Jets last year the situation was we needed either Denver or the Jets to lose, and for us to win in the final week. Denver ended up winning, the Jets lost, and so did Buffalo, but had Buffalo won we would have been in a three way tie at 10-6. Since we split the series with the Jets, and had identical 3-3 division records, the common opponent tiebreaker would have then been used to separate us and the Jets as division rules are always used to separate division teams. The Bills would have then beaten out the Jets having a better common opponent record.

[Pete]

As much as I want the Bills to do well NOW (man, I'm sick of waiting), I think they need to start JP ASAP and take their lumps now and better prepare for the future.

 

If you look at the standings we are still right in the race, but if you watch the team you'll see it probably isn't going to happen.

 

Schedules aside, the Bills had 2 great opportunities to take the lead in the AFC East and blew both of them - all of a sudden we are going to start capitalizing on opportunities? I don't think so.

 

If JP gets some playing time at least we get something out of the season. If we end the season out of the playoffs AND JP is still as green as he is now I'm going to be ripped. The plan is already a year behind - JP was supposed tp play some last season and be ready this season. Get on with it already...

498197[/snapback]

My sentiments exactly! I do not understand why Holcomb is getting reps. He will not be the starter next year so why not start JP?