zow2 Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 That line will shift back to even in a day or so. Larry Johnson will run for about 150 against our guys even at home.
RuntheDamnBall Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 That line will shift back to even in a day or so. Larry Johnson will run for about 150 against our guys even at home. 496734[/snapback] Anyone taking the Bills on that line is out of their freaking mind.
GG Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 Anyone taking the Bills on that line is out of their freaking mind. 496737[/snapback] Just like everyone was predicting a familiar 40-7 blowout at Foxboro.... Bet the house on it.
colin Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 the bills are a call or two from being alone for 1st in the AFC east we are also putting in the right quaterback at the start of the season from being at least 5-3. we are not a perfect team, but the teams that are getting love all around the AFC: Jax Cincy Pitts NE SD KC are all very beatable and have the records to show it. a healthy bills team is hard to beat in buffalo, we may well go 7-1 at home this year
inkman Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 My only thought is that KC is just a bad road team. Those vegas odds guys are right more than they are wrong. Who knows, maybe we are 2 1/2 better than the chiefs?
stuckincincy Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 a healthy bills team is hard to beat in buffalo, we may well go 7-1 at home this year 496760[/snapback] Well, beating 4 clubs at RWS that are now a cumulative 8 and 25 is a good start...
smokinandjokin Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 I see these teams as pretty even...The standard is 3 points to the home team, so the morning line sees the Chiefs as slightly favored, with a bump to the Bills for homefield. If the game was in KC, opening line would probably be Chiefs by 5.5 or so, just because they are so tough at home and the Bills are a disaster on the road.
Zona Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 As a former gambler, I will tell you that the line is known as a "sucker bet". The oddsmakers know that if the chiefs were favored, they will get little or no action on the game. If the bills lay too many points, they get too much action on the Chiefs. So by making the Bills a favorite of less than 3, they are trying to get as much action on the Bills as they can. The Chiefs are a slight favorite, but Vegas needs action on the Bills in order to cover the payouts on the Chiefs. Its all in the "Vig". The Vig is 10% house take. Bet 11 to win 10. The oddsmakers want at least to try and balance the action so as to offset both sides, ensuring they get to keep their cut. Since the Action is never exactly 50-50, they want more money on the Bills at home than they want on the Chiefs. Vegas Clearly thinks the Chiefs will cover the 2.5. Thus a sucker bets. all the people who say "wow, the Bills are only laying 2.5? That's a good bet" are suckers. And all the People who say, "man, the Chiefs are Getting 2.5? What do they know that we dont?" they lay off the game and are also known as suckers.... Since I am a Bills Fan, I almost never bet on them. My heart is always costing me money, so i just cross the game off and play something else....
GG Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 As a former gambler, I will tell you that the line is known as a "sucker bet". The oddsmakers know that if the chiefs were favored, they will get little or no action on the game. If the bills lay too many points, they get too much action on the Chiefs. So by making the Bills a favorite of less than 3, they are trying to get as much action on the Bills as they can. The Chiefs are a slight favorite, but Vegas needs action on the Bills in order to cover the payouts on the Chiefs. 497044[/snapback] As a non-former gambler, can you please re-explain the logic. If non-sucker gamblers think that Chiefs are a lock at 2.5 dogs, why would they care what Vegas thinks about the vig, if the odds are so good? Wouldn't Buffalo opening at 2.5 favorite mean that all the action is on KC right now, anyway? Wouldn't Vegas stimulate more action on the Bills by making KC 21 pt favorites?
HopsGuy Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 As a former gambler,... My heart is always costing me money, so i just cross the game off and play something else.... 497044[/snapback] You're a former gambler, but you still play?
CentralVaBills Posted November 7, 2005 Posted November 7, 2005 That line will shift back to even in a day or so. Larry Johnson will run for about 150 against our guys even at home. 496734[/snapback] I can't wait to tease this baby up to the Chiefs at 9 1/2, and Carolina down to 1 vs. the Jets at home. I might bet my savings on this.
Mikie2times Posted November 8, 2005 Posted November 8, 2005 As a non-former gambler, can you please re-explain the logic. If non-sucker gamblers think that Chiefs are a lock at 2.5 dogs, why would they care what Vegas thinks about the vig, if the odds are so good? Wouldn't Buffalo opening at 2.5 favorite mean that all the action is on KC right now, anyway? Wouldn't Vegas stimulate more action on the Bills by making KC 21 pt favorites? 497075[/snapback] He's correct, and I'll explain why. When you look at this line at first glance it screams KC, even more KC has been a public favorite ever since that 13-3 year. One more obvious pattern of the betting public is not giving the home team a big enough advantage. This combination shows the odds makers think the "public" is vastly overrating KC, and is very likely to underestimate the home Bills. They take advantage of that by slanting the line even more in favor of Buffalo to make the line irresistible to KC backers. Now a frenzied public looks at this line and screams, "holy crap Buffalo -2.5 , KC is a lock. " It's a gamble by the bookies, but it usually works. In 95% of the other games they try and balance action, and the juice nearly always ensures profit. But in one or two games a week they will have a "trap game" listed. Remember, these lines first go threw a line making firm, and then are tested by a small sampling of the public, and the professional bettors. Vegas makes no mistakes, luck always plays a roll, but they clearly think Buffalo is underrated in this spot. A smart move would be to wait until this thing bottoms out, probably with the Chiefs as favorites, and bet the Bills.
zow2 Posted November 8, 2005 Author Posted November 8, 2005 I understand the nuiances of gambling and the home team usually gets a couple points in their favor. Statistically though, the Bills are not hanging with KC in that department. The New Bruschi (We're not worthy!) game was a bit of an aberration for Buffalo. I think the Bills can beat KC but i would put a visit to Miami on about the same difficulty scale as a visit to Buffalo right now. KC went down there and handled the Fins pretty easily. I guess if Priest doesn't play then the BIlls have a decent shot.
Mikie2times Posted November 8, 2005 Posted November 8, 2005 It's up to Buffalo -3 now. 497255[/snapback] I just checked on the betting pattern on my sportsbook, KC has taken 87% of the side bets. The books are really letting the public hammer KC without the line moving, BEWARE!!
BuffOrange Posted November 8, 2005 Posted November 8, 2005 I distinctly remember somebody starting a similar thread about the Rams game last year and I told them they're an idiot. I don't feel as confident about the Bills' chances in this game, but other than the Friday night game in Miami - the Chiefs have not played a really good game since opening day - so no - it's not a joke.
plenzmd1 Posted November 8, 2005 Posted November 8, 2005 I just checked on the betting pattern on my sportsbook, KC has taken 87% of the side bets. The books are really letting the public hammer KC without the line moving, BEWARE!! 497322[/snapback] Agreed, something smells fishy here.Chiefs have Houston next, so not your classic sandwich game. Maybe a slight emotional letdwon from the Raider game, but this much? Logically, I would be all over the Chiefs, but the law of opposites comes into play here. Me thinks good sign for the Bills
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