There is never a good time to start playing JP

[PromoTheRobot]

I've been hearing the debates on both sides about whether to start JP Losman at QB or stick with Kelly Holcomb. The jist of the Holcomb arguement is that the veteran should play as long as the Bills have hope.

 

Fine. Let's go with that. The Bills play Holcomb until it's obvious they are out of it. Considering the way the AFC East is shaking out. The Bills may not be out of it until the last week or two, if at all. So JP doesn't get to play in 2005.

 

Now it's 2006. Can't start JP because you are throwing in the towel. Okay, so 2006 is out.

 

So your QB of the future is growing roots on the sideline. Why did we trade draft picks for him if we aren't going to find out if he can play? Well JP had 4 games to prove himself, you say. Take a look at the first 4 games played by any QB who is now dominating the NFL, and I'll bet most of them looked worse than JP.

 

I may be in the minority, but I think the Bills are only hurting their future playing Holcomb.

 

PTR

[East Brady]

I've been hearing the debates on both sides about whether to start JP Losman at QB or stick with Kelly Holcomb.  The jist of the Holcomb arguement is that the veteran should play as long as the Bills have hope.

 

Fine.  Let's go with that.  The Bills play Holcomb until it's obvious they are out of it.  Considering the way the AFC East is shaking out.  The Bills may not be out of it until the last week or two, if at all.  So JP doesn't get to play in 2005.

 

Now it's 2006.  Can't start JP because you are throwing in the towel.  Okay, so 2006 is out.

 

So your QB of the future is growing roots on the sideline.  Why did we trade draft picks for him if we aren't going to find out if he can play?  Well JP had 4 games to prove himself, you say.  Take a look at the first 4 games played by any QB who is now dominating the NFL, and I'll bet most of them looked worse than JP. 

 

I may be in the minority, but I think the Bills are only hurting their future playing Holcomb.

 

PTR

493502[/snapback]

we're not in the minority IMO..........talking to fellow fans that don't post on this board and all I hear is........F holcomb play JP......

[IDBillzFan]

I may be in the minority, but I think the Bills are only hurting their future playing Holcomb.

 

PTR

493502[/snapback]

I'm with you, but we're not 30-year-old receivers and linebackers who are impatient. We'll ultimately be like the Colts...we'll finally have our offense in place, and will need to rebuild our defense.

[Mikie2times]

I've been hearing the debates on both sides about whether to start JP Losman at QB or stick with Kelly Holcomb.  The jist of the Holcomb arguement is that the veteran should play as long as the Bills have hope.

 

Fine.  Let's go with that.  The Bills play Holcomb until it's obvious they are out of it.  Considering the way the AFC East is shaking out.  The Bills may not be out of it until the last week or two, if at all.  So JP doesn't get to play in 2005.

 

Now it's 2006.  Can't start JP because you are throwing in the towel.  Okay, so 2006 is out.

 

So your QB of the future is growing roots on the sideline.  Why did we trade draft picks for him if we aren't going to find out if he can play?  Well JP had 4 games to prove himself, you say.  Take a look at the first 4 games played by any QB who is now dominating the NFL, and I'll bet most of them looked worse than JP. 

 

I may be in the minority, but I think the Bills are only hurting their future playing Holcomb.

 

PTR

493502[/snapback]

 

I agree that JP should be starting, and he might end up doing just that. But a ton of factors are influencing this decision so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills stick with Kelly. The fan and media pressure on TD and MM will be tremendous if the season implodes. Also with New England playing the Colts, it is very possible the Bills will only be a game back after the bye.

 

I'm just trying to look at this thinking about what the Bills will probably do, as opposed to what they should do. In reality with the schedule ahead we have no chance at the playoffs, but again don't underestimate just how much TD and MM are thinking about their collective heads in this decision. A 5-11 type year would be a major blow to their status with the fan base and media, and the simple truth is Kelly gives us a better chance at winning.

 

JP wasn't just bad for a QB, he was bad for a rookie QB. His stats don't measure up to the best post 2000 QB's, or even the worst ones. If you want so see exactly how he's faired check out this post I made awhile back, it compares the first four starts of 20 or so recent QB's. Old Post

 

Despite the fact that JP's first four starts are among the worst of all recent rookie QB's their is one player that JP has beaten out, Eli Manning. We absolutely must find out if JP is our Eli Manning this season, otherwise we go into next year basically in the same shape as this year, and this years QB play won't be good enough to reach the playoffs. In the end if MM and TD are confident enough in their job security, or New England Wins, JP starts, if not don't be suprised to see Kelly remain in for a few more.

[Nanker]

I'd start Holcomb at least once more, for old time's sake.

I wouldn't put Losman back in until the team Optometrist confirmed he's lost the deer-in-the-headlights look.

 

I agree that he is the future, and right now that's a scary thought.

Maybe a start in San Diego would make him feel more comfy.

[macaroni]

As fans it's easy for us to say the heck with this season, start JP to prepare him for the future ...... because our jobs do not hinge on the Bills win/loss record. I'm pretty sure TD/MM/and the rest of the staff would rather go 8 - 8 or 9 - 7 with a hope of a future, than go something like 4 - 12 and have JP ready for some other coaches "future".

[UConn James]

I'm with you, but we're not 30-year-old receivers and linebackers who are impatient. We'll ultimately be like the Colts...we'll finally have our offense in place, and will need to rebuild our defense.

493514[/snapback]

 

In the salary-cap era, that's the thing. You can choose to build a Great defense or a Great offense but you usually won't ever have both (Pats were an abarition in that they got very lucky with things converging at the same time, and it's now correcting itself). You can also choose to go the route where you have a Good O and D, and hope that over 16 weeks, you catch the corresponding Great units on their bad days.

 

In the SB run, the O was the primary mover while the D had a lot of stars, but you knew they were always the second banana. Under Wade and GW, the transition was made that this is a defense-first team. Wade made it work with just enough sparks on offense to have a real shot at winning; GW retooled the defense to his brand but while making a stronger unit there, the O was left with the crumbling remnants (esp. OL) that Bledsoe couldn't succeed in (tho he did try admirably).

 

Now, we're left with a question. Do we rebuild/stockpile on O while letting the D slide back, and hope that their paths intersect at a point of high production? Do we retool the D to again make it Top 5 and make nominal improvements to the O?

[UConn James]

As fans it's easy for us to say the heck with this season, start JP to prepare him for the future ...... because our jobs do not hinge on the Bills win/loss record. I'm pretty sure TD/MM/and the rest of the staff would rather go 8 - 8 or 9 - 7 with a hope of a future, than go something like 4 - 12 and have JP ready for some other coaches "future".

493559[/snapback]

 

MM has 3 1/2 years left on his contract. How come Marvin Lewis can start Palmer. Nolan can start Smith. Del Rio went with Leftwich. Due respect, but the choice is not about job security. As long as Ralph is satisfied, it's okay. And Ralph isn't stupid --- he knows that it takes time to develop a starter.

 

The coaching staff has to have the willpower to make a choice to start a young QB, and then (here's the key words, Coach) STICK WITH IT. It sounded like they were going to do this, but after four games, our coaches chose to cut and run to KH, who's shown that he can't direct the O to much more success than JP did.

 

I don't care about a winning record as long as I can see that things are progressing whereby we'll be competitive and might be settled on the QB situation for the next several years.

[plenzmd1]

I'm with you, but we're not 30-year-old receivers and linebackers who are impatient. We'll ultimately be like the Colts...we'll finally have our offense in place, and will need to rebuild our defense.

493514[/snapback]

 

Looks to me like we need to rebuild the D NOW. 5 starters over 30, with a six coming off an achilles tear, with a 7th most likely gone via FA at the end of the year. You tell me what this D will look like next year.

[Johnny Coli]

I may be in the minority, but I think the Bills are only hurting their future playing Holcomb.

 

PTR

493502[/snapback]

You're not in the minority, PTR. I think the switch to JP should have been made in wek 8 last year, and I think he should have started every game since. Those two Holcomb-inspired victories were a mirage. Losman would have won both those games.

[IDBillzFan]

Looks to me like we need to rebuild the D NOW. 5 starters over 30, with a six coming off an achilles tear, with a 7th most likely gone via FA at the end of the year. You tell me what this D will look like next year.

493598[/snapback]

Can't argue with that. I'm thinking more along the line of new faces. In two years, when JP is getting it done with Evans and Roscoe and McGahee, you won't see Fletcher, Fat Sam, Nate Clements, et. al., (though I am hoping you'll still see Takeo).

[Nervous Guy]

You're not in the minority, PTR.  I think the switch to JP should have been made in wek 8 last year, and I think he should have started every game since.  Those two Holcomb-inspired victories were a mirage.  Losman would have won both those games.

493599[/snapback]

I couldn't agree more with you guys...I might even go as far as saying if JP was in against NE we could have maybe pulled that one out too. This team is average at best, we ain't going no where this year, let's just take our medicine and move on.

[Bill from NYC]

You're not in the minority, PTR.  I think the switch to JP should have been made in wek 8 last year, and I think he should have started every game since.  Those two Holcomb-inspired victories were a mirage.  Losman would have won both those games.

493599[/snapback]

 

Let me say that I too would like to see JP in there after the bye. I would like him to play some games in order to see if he is any good at all; not a foregone conclusion by any stretch.

The rest of your post is quite a reach. Game 8 of last year, huh? What was the Bills record in those 9 games? Not too shabby, right?

JP sucked this year. Do you think that he would have been any good in 04?

 

To be fair, it takes time to be an NFL QB. TD gave up a ton to get this kid. We might as well see if he is any good now. If he isn't, maybe TD will draft another first round qb.

[Johnny Coli]

The rest of your post is quite a reach. Game 8 of last year, huh? What was the Bills record in those 9 games? Not too shabby, right?

493603[/snapback]

Sorry, my bad, meant game 9. They were 3-5 last year headed into NE, and Losman could have started that game (which they lost). I still stand by my statement, and how I felt last year at this time. They weren't a playoff team last year, and they aren't this year.

[BuffaloRebound]

Mularkey made the right call with Losman. He was getting worse. Every situation is not similar. For every Eli Manning, there's a David Carr or Tim Couch who probably could have benefitted from getting benched. That said, I think it may be time to put Losman back in there. Holcomb made some rookie mistakes down the stretch against NE. Short of Holcomb developing into a first rate Qb or realistic playoff chances, it's time for Losman. I also don't think this team is old at all. The offense is extremely young. On defense, the only old position is safety. Spikes will play for a long time, Crowell will replace Fletcher or Posey, and Adams is gone. The corners, ends, and depth positions are all young. The Bills will most likely have 5 Day 1 draft picks and at least 4 should be spent on a DT, LB, and safety.

[bluv]

Sorry, my bad, meant game 9.  They were 3-5 last year headed into NE, and Losman could have started that game (which they lost).  I still stand by my statement, and how I felt last year at this time.  They weren't a playoff team last year, and they aren't this year.

493604[/snapback]

Exactly. If we have a strong finish this year but miss the playoffs then in 2006 the staff will begin to try to re-sale JP to the fans all over again and proclaim he is ready and if he has another slow start he will be villified as another RJ. I agree he should have been given the reins last year, especially since it was obvious the team had given up on Drew as being the future QB. Now while we might not have had the strong finish in 2004, JP and the Bills would be much farther along in 2005 and we probably wouldn't be 3-5 as we have lost some winnable games with poor QB play. Now we all know that while KH is playing good he has reached his potential and can't get any better and you would have to have all the pieces around him to win as he can't lead an offense that can score over 20 points a game as he doesn't have the arm and he still makes rookie decisions at times. If we had stuck with JP at least we would know by 2007 wheter he's our Qb or not good enough. So far we can't evaluate after only 4 starts. If he doesn't play any this year then he better start off on fire in 2006 for he will lose any support he has if he has any slip ups; let the rest of 2005 be his learning curve so that can't be used as an excuse down the road if he does stink the place up for then if he falters we can just say he stinks!

[DeeRay]

I may be in the minority, but I think the Bills are only hurting their future playing Holcomb.

 

Let's assume JP takes over at QB for the rest of the season. What is a realistic time frame to say this kid has arrived or this kid is a bust?

 

The reason I ask is because we really don't know much about JP... (except that he pretty much stunk out the joint in the short time he was in there... but, I'll be the first to give the kid a mulligan)

 

Which club does JP belong to???

 

Eli, Carson, Ben club or the Boller, Carr, Ramsey club? We just don't know yet.

 

So, let's fast forward to 2008. JP, we would hope, has 2.5 seasons of starting experience, correct? What, then, does this team look like in 2008?

 

Well, Vincent, Milloy, Adams, Fletcher will all be 3 years older and likely be gone by then. TKO will be on the wrong side of 30, plus, I have no reason to expect that he will ever be as good as he's been over the past two seasons due to the nature of his injury. Add to this a defense that has significantly regressed... and you've got serious issues... whether you want to admit it or not.

 

The offensive line has been piss poor for more than five seasons now. Who will be on this offensive line 3 years from now and how functional will it be?

 

Three years from now, Moulds won't be here, Reed is probably gone. Evans and Parrish may or may not be your receivers. And, if history is any indication of the dependability of receivers Parrish's size (see, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, David Patten, Peter Warrick, Jermaine Lewis, Az Hakim), then you better have the horses that can step up to the plate... because I will tell you right now, Parrish will miss significant time with injuries.

Tight End??? That's another issue and simply saying Everett or Euhus is the answer won't even cut it because there is another element to this... your TE has to have a role in the offense and if he does he has to be a viable option either in the run game. passing game or both... and has to be utilized.

 

Then you have the RB situation... I know, I know, everyone else thinks McGahee is the 2nd coming of Christ cuz Willis just told everyone so, but there are enough indicators there that show me that he is not in the class of the Alexanders, Holmes, James, and Tomlinsons. Let's be real... these guys stay on the field on 3rd down, protect there QB from being creamed by blitzers and consistently catch 50 balls/season in addition to their 1400 plus yards rushing. Willis does not give you that dimension. But... he is serviceable... in the mold of Bam Morris, Christian Okoye, and that Barry guy that played for the Steelers in the mid 90's. Which means, the supporting cast around Willis needs to be solid.

 

So... 5 seasons have passed since Superman came in and rescued us from "Cap Jail". I don't know what your belief or expectations were, but I took him at his word when he said he didn't just want to get to the SB, he wanted to win the SB. Well, after 2 rookie head coaches, several draft busts, and several marketing schemes to jade the truth we are really no closer to realizing that SB dream than we were 5 years ago. Cap Jail? What's the cost of unloading the contracts of Moulds, Milloy, Adams, Vincent, & Mike Williams in order to get better? Not to mention what we all know is coming next July.... Jesus Christ (AKA Willis) is gonna want to tear up his contract and demand more cash. Right now...this dude is your marquis player in terms of marketing... so what do you do... overpay a RB that's productive but truly not deserving of elite RB type money? or do you insure yourself and draft another RB? or target a serviceable Vet FA (A.Thomas?) , or hope Shaud and Lionel are ready for primetime?

 

In a nutshell... after 5 seasons, Superman has had enough time to figure out whether he's gonna fish or cut bait. 29-43 suggests to me he can't do anything but the latter. I'd be content with 43-29... that would have kept me on the edge of my seat. This GM just doesn't get it. He's so self absorbed that he totally dismisses the value of a good and experienced head coach. I'm a firm beleiver that a GM must give most control of personnel decisions to the coach. He thinks he can just plug players in regardless of team chemistry and coaching philosophy. He thinks it's all about the salary cap and marketing. So, as long as we do what we did, we'll get what we got. If Teflon Tom is the man in charge, JP, Willis, & whoever will not matter... "WE ARE HURTING THE FUTURE" and the misery will continue. He will not build a winner. Anyone care to give Tom 5 more years?

[jester43]

ok...now i'm really depressed

[Typical TBD Guy]

Let's assume JP takes over at QB for the rest of the season.  What is a realistic time frame to say this kid has arrived or this kid is a bust?

 

The reason I ask is because we really don't know much about JP... (except that he pretty much stunk out the joint in the short time he was in there... but, I'll be the first to give the kid a mulligan)

 

Which club does JP belong to???

 

Eli, Carson, Ben club or the Boller, Carr, Ramsey club?  We just don't know yet.

 

So, let's fast forward to 2008.  JP, we would hope, has 2.5 seasons of starting experience, correct?  What, then, does this team look like in 2008?

 

Well, Vincent, Milloy, Adams, Fletcher will all be 3 years older and likely be gone by then.  TKO will be on the wrong side of 30, plus, I have no reason to expect that he will ever be as good as he's been over the past two seasons due to the nature of his injury.  Add to this a defense that has significantly regressed... and you've got serious issues... whether you want to admit it or not.

 

The offensive line has been piss poor for more than five seasons now.  Who will be on this offensive line 3 years from now and how functional will it be? 

 

Three years from now, Moulds won't be here, Reed is probably gone.  Evans and Parrish may or may not be your receivers.  And, if history is any indication of the dependability of receivers Parrish's size (see, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, David Patten, Peter Warrick, Jermaine Lewis, Az Hakim), then you better have the horses that can step up to the plate... because I will tell you right now, Parrish will miss significant time with injuries.

Tight End??? That's another issue and simply saying Everett or Euhus is the answer won't even cut it because there is another element to this... your TE has to have a role in the offense and if he does he has to be a viable option either in the run game. passing game or both... and has to be utilized.

 

Then you have the RB situation... I know, I know, everyone else thinks McGahee is the 2nd coming of Christ cuz Willis just told everyone so, but there are enough indicators there that show me that he is not in the class of the Alexanders, Holmes, James, and Tomlinsons.  Let's be real... these guys stay on the field on 3rd down, protect there QB from being creamed by blitzers and consistently catch 50 balls/season in addition to their 1400 plus yards rushing.  Willis does not give you that dimension.  But... he is serviceable... in the mold of Bam Morris, Christian Okoye, and that Barry guy that played for the Steelers in the mid 90's.  Which means, the supporting cast around Willis needs to be solid.

 

So... 5 seasons have passed since Superman came in and rescued us from "Cap Jail".  I don't know what your belief or expectations were, but I took him at his word when he said he didn't just want to get to the SB, he wanted to win the SB.  Well, after 2 rookie head coaches, several draft busts, and several marketing schemes to jade the truth we are really no closer to realizing that SB dream than we were 5 years ago.  Cap Jail?  What's the cost of unloading the contracts of Moulds, Milloy, Adams, Vincent, & Mike Williams in order to get better?  Not to mention what we all know is coming next July.... Jesus Christ (AKA Willis) is gonna want to tear up his contract and demand more cash.  Right now...this dude is your marquis player in terms of marketing... so what do you do... overpay a RB that's productive but truly not deserving of elite RB type money? or do you insure yourself and draft another RB? or target a serviceable Vet FA (A.Thomas?) , or hope Shaud and Lionel are ready for primetime?

 

In a nutshell... after 5 seasons, Superman has had enough time to figure out whether he's gonna fish or cut bait.  29-43 suggests to me he can't do anything but the latter.  I'd be content with 43-29... that would have kept me on the edge of my seat.  This GM just doesn't get it.  He's so self absorbed that he totally dismisses the value of a good and experienced head coach.  I'm a firm beleiver that a GM must give most control of personnel decisions to the coach.  He thinks he can just plug players in regardless of team chemistry and coaching philosophy.  He thinks it's all about the salary cap and marketing.  So, as long as we do what we did, we'll get what we got.  If Teflon Tom is the man in charge, JP, Willis, & whoever will not matter... "WE ARE HURTING THE FUTURE" and the misery will continue.  He will not build a winner.  Anyone care to give Tom 5 more years?

493701[/snapback]

 

Great post, but I have one big problem with it. Your assumption that McGahee is more of a Bam Morris type than a Tomlinson/Alexander type is unfair. Unlike the other top 5 NFL RB's, McGahee had to come back from one of the worst knee injuries in college football history (if not the worst). Give the man a little more time to recover before downplaying his ability. McGahee looked to be every bit as good as the elite NFL RB's before that injury - speed, power, pass-catching ability, everything. Oh yeah, and don't forget that all the other top 5 NFL RB's (LT, Alexander, James, etc...) are several more seasons of pro experience ahead of McGahee, who himelf has yet to complete 1 full season as an NFL starter. Oh, and also you have to account for the Bills' crappy OL which you yourself acknowledged in one of your paragraphs.

[34-78-83]

Great post, but I have one big problem with it. Your assumption that McGahee is more of a Bam Morris type than a Tomlinson/Alexander type is unfair. Unlike the other top 5 NFL RB's, McGahee had to come back from one of the worst knee injuries in college football history (if not the worst). Give the man a little more time to recover before downplaying his ability. McGahee looked to be every bit as good as the elite NFL RB's before that injury - speed, power, pass-catching ability, everything. Oh yeah, and don't forget that all the other top 5 NFL RB's (LT, Alexander, James, etc...) are several more seasons of pro experience ahead of McGahee, who himelf has yet to complete 1 full season as an NFL starter. Oh, and also you have to account for the Bills' crappy OL which you yourself acknowledged in one of your paragraphs.

493741[/snapback]

 

I agree with your side of the debate on the RB situation. Here's Willis's stats if anyone is interested...

 

Willis career (18 starts): 469 carries for 1918 Yards

Average over 4 ypc (4.1)

Fumbles only once every 117 touches (excellent)

10 100+ yard games

17 TD's

110 First downs

14 20+ yard runs.