Reviewed some game films

[Bill from NYC]

You are correct Bill, although none of us will ever know the full details. If I recall correctly it was in the Cardinals game last season where it became obvious. Sam was penetrating the LOS a lot and leaving gaps behind him. Gray was obviously angry about this, and they had it out. It seemed to me and a few others I spoke with at that point that this was the moment where PW became the "stop-gap" plugger and Sam was allowed to freelance. Prior to that point I believe the scheme was more to have both DT's stay home or have PW do the penetrating.

487192[/snapback]

 

Well then wtf? Who is running the show? Is it not apparent that the current scheme isn't working?

[Kelly the Dog]

Certain players, and especially kinds of players, are more valuable to one team, or kind of team, than another. This is especially true of Pat Williams, and the Bills, and of Jerry Gray's/Dick LeBeau's/Gregg Williams' defense. The success of the run defense was predicated on not how many tackles our DTs made but on how many blockers our DTs took out without giving up ground. With Phat Pat and Phat Sam, they stood up their men or shot the gaps brilliantly together, which allowed Fletcher and TKO to rush the LOS basically unabated and make the tackle near the LOS.

 

TD made a miscalculation one of two ways, either how much Pat Williams was worth TO US (not necessarily how much he was worth on the open market), OR, how good Edwards/Anderson/Bannan were to take up the slack. He was likely wrong on both counts, and while I thought myself that Phat Pat wasn't worth the money he was likely to be offered, now, in retrospect, it looks like he was. Sometimes teams have to overpay certain players to keep the rest of the eleven starters able to do their jobs. TD and MM gambled and lost.

 

Fletcher, to me, has lost a step since his early season injury, and cannot get into position quick enough to make the tackle near the LOS. Not to mention now having to fight off an unabated OL which he hasn't had to do much when Phat Pat was here.

 

Losing TKO has hurt us bad as Crowell continually gets blocked backwards 2-3 yards 80% of the plays and then makes one stellar play to look like he isn't that bad. Milloy looks like he cannot wrap up guys like he used to because of his injury, too. The Result? backs are obviously breaking through the LOS clearly and then not being tackled. The amount of 50 yard runs has grossly exaggerated the stats (although clearly a glaring deficiency in this defense.)

 

It seems rather obvious, regardless of how well Pat has or hasn't played on the Vikes, that we are missing him dearly. My solution, early and now, was still to go after Corey Simon, but that seems to be another mistake (unless perhaps Simon didn't want to come here).

 

Great post, btw.

[Dan III]

You are correct Bill, although none of us will ever know the full details. If I recall correctly it was in the Cardinals game last season where it became obvious. Sam was penetrating the LOS a lot and leaving gaps behind him. Gray was obviously angry about this, and they had it out. It seemed to me and a few others I spoke with at that point that this was the moment where PW became the "stop-gap" plugger and Sam was allowed to freelance. Prior to that point I believe the scheme was more to have both DT's stay home or have PW do the penetrating.

487192[/snapback]

It was the Miami game.. Gray got a little upset about our D making Sammy Morris look like Walter Payton.

[bills_fan]

You are correct Bill, although none of us will ever know the full details. If I recall correctly it was in the Cardinals game last season where it became obvious. Sam was penetrating the LOS a lot and leaving gaps behind him. Gray was obviously angry about this, and they had it out. It seemed to me and a few others I spoke with at that point that this was the moment where PW became the "stop-gap" plugger and Sam was allowed to freelance. Prior to that point I believe the scheme was more to have both DT's stay home or have PW do the penetrating.

 

 

You guys could be right, tho I thought it was the Miami game, where Sam was benched for the 2nd half. Now, Sam may have had a point...he's a penetrator, he does that very well. Asking him to be a stay-at-home DT is not playing to his strength, which is what we always accuse the coaches of fugging up.

 

I know that Fletcher has been banged up and Milloy is not 100%, but I can't imagine that these guys fell off so fast. Its more likely that the opposing OL are blocking them b/c RE/TA are being handled in one-on-one matchups. At least thats what the TB (also with Crowellwhen he replaced Fletcher) & AtL games showed.

 

The solution is to find a run-plugger in the offseason.

 

For now, maybe play more of a containment type D, where all 4 down lineman hold up the OL at the LOS and allow the LBs to fire thru the gaps, sort of a half run-blitz. But that leaves us vulnerable in many other areas...play action fakes in the flats, screens etc. that would go for big gains.

[34-78-83]

Yeah I was gonna say it was the Miami game or the Cards game, I just couldn't remember which...

[mead107]

I was a bit bored and was able to get tapes of 3 games from the 04 season and contrast them with some games in the 05 season, to try and get a handle on what we did differently in our run D.  This is what I found out...

 

I contrasted these games from 04 (the Seattle game where we held Alexander to 39 yds, the Jets game in Buffalo, held Martin to 67 yards, and the Baltimore game, Lewis (not jamal) hit us for 89 yards on 21 carries) with the Atlanta game (1st half) and the TB game.  I picked these games from 05 because I wanted to see how we were doing with TKO.

 

The Bills scheme in 04 was predicated upon forcing the RB to run at Phat Pat, and pick a lane to either side of him.  Essentially the DEs rushed upfield and established containment outside.  Sam penetrated the backfield, trying to force the RB to cut towards PW.  PW, on damn near every play was doubled, but he held his ground.  That created three gaps for the RB to rush through...the spot Sam vacated, and on either side of PW.  TKO, Fletcher and Milloy generally filled the gaps nicely, making the tackle and not allowing the RB any room to move. 

 

Essentially our LBs & Milloy were the 3rd line of defense against the run.  First the DEs did a very nice job of holding outside containment and not letting the RB bust it outside.  Then Sam would shoot a gap and guess trying to make the tackle.  This is the essence of Sam's game, penetration, and he is very good at it. This strategy worked well as if Sam guessed wrong, PW was able to hold his ground and force the RB to make a split second decision and try a gap, where a LB or Milloy was waiting.  It was quite an effective scheme. 

 

Now, contrast that with the 05 Bills.  Basically, everything is the same except that Edwards or Anderson are not commanding a double team.  Sam has generally been beating the  double team he is commanding, but RE or TA is being blocked 1 on 1.  That leaves the opposing C, usually, to take on a LB in the gap.  Cadillac and Dunn/Duckett simply followed the C, who sealed off the gap leading to big gains.  Our LBs, then tried to compensate by not filling the gap but heading up field, guessing where the RB is, trying to make a play.  This is the infamous "losing gap responsibilities" that Gray spoke of.  The problem is that the gap is larger due to RE or TA being moved off the ball (didn't happen too often) but neither were ever doubled, which happened all the time with PW last year.  Also RE is more of a penetrater and not a stay-at-home lane clogger.

 

The conclusion I drew from this is that Pat Williams was the keystone in which our run D was built on.  The necessity for him to be doubled on 1st and 2nd down, allowed us to do more as far as filling the gaps to stop the run.  Essentially the LBs had either a clear lane or more time (due to the frequent chip blocks on PW that I saw) to fill the gap before the blocking and RB got to the hole.

 

Essentially, even tho PW played on only 60% of the defensive plays, his role was huge.  He occupied two blockers enabling our LB/Milloy or Sam to make the play almost unimpeded.  Then he came off the field on 2nd and long or 3rd down and Edwards, more of a penetrater, rushed the passer. 

 

For us to get back to being successful stopping the run, we NEED a guy to clog the lane and maintain his position.  It also won't hurt if he draws double teams.  Unfortunately, I don't know too many of those type of guys in the league.  We need a vet, probably signed as a FA because he needs a rep to draw double teams, who can clog the lane.  Is Big Ted available?

487095[/snapback]

very good review . . we are going to have to have a big game from everyone to stop the run . i am not sure that is going to happen . i think we are going to need more scoring from the O if we are going any where this year .

[drnykterstein]

ooooh I want to do an "I told you so"

 

I told you so, I told you so

 

dangit were those the only two time I said that? i remember being all angry about losing phatty and yelling and posting how our defense was not going to be as good. i'm a little dissapointed in my self. gotta learn to repeat myself a little more.

[bills_fan]

Scary thing is...if we had Phat Pat, we could realistically have beaten the Falcons and the Saints, being 5-2 and now be looking at a game in Foxboro.

[stevewin]

TD made a miscalculation one of two ways, either how much Pat Williams was worth TO US (not necessarily how much he was worth on the open market), OR, how good Edwards/Anderson/Bannan were to take up the slack. He was likely wrong on both counts, and while I thought myself that Phat Pat wasn't worth the money he was likely to be offered, now, in retrospect, it looks like he was.

487204[/snapback]

I would have to believe a lot of the latter was involved. Certainly you cannot predicate your entire defense on the ability of a single individual to play a role. What if that guy gets injured? You need to have backups you think can play a similar role - OR - as has been stated - you need to be able to fit your schemes to the players you have!!!

[Typical TBD Guy]

I contrasted these games from 04 (the Seattle game where we held Alexander to 39 yds, the Jets game in Buffalo, held Martin to 67 yards, and the Baltimore game, Lewis (not jamal) hit us for 89 yards on 21 carries) with the Atlanta game (1st half) and the TB game.  I picked these games from 05 because I wanted to see how we were doing with TKO.

487095[/snapback]

 

Great research, bills_fan! My only dissent is that your selection of games doesn't account for the times when our D got absolutely raped. If you - or anyone else - were to look at those games, my best guess is you'll find that the lack of consistent pass rush generated from Kelsay and Schobel puts way too much strain on the LB's and DB's, which causes the entire unit to collapse against the smarter/better offenses of the league who can pick up our blitz packages.

 

So in other words, we may be more than just a run-stopping DT away from a top defense again. We may also need 1-2 solid pass-rushers at DE.

 

And a healthy Spikes would definitely help.

 

As would a replacement for Posey.

 

And a younger safety tandem.

 

Oh, and a more innovative DC wouldn't hurt, either .

[AKC]

It was the great miscalculation of this past off-season. Look at it this way- even with a much weakened offense when compared to the last half of 2004, with PWilliams on our roster today we'd probably be a 5-2 team, or at worst 4-3 and in command of our division entering week 8. Instead we're a freaking laughingstock due to A) the inability of Ron Edwards to carry PW's jock in any positive way and B) our depth at DT to fill out the balance of the roles vacated by Edwards moving from our pass packages to our rushing package.

 

The biggest problem I have with the miscalculations are that they seem so easy to recognize, and I'm going to bring them up one more time to suggest how some of the "remedies" offered in this string have no chance of working. First of all your run stuffer needs a low center of gravity like PW. Sam Adams has a high center for a big man and unfortunately he isn't the answer to any team's need for a solid run stuffer. Sam will always be the answer at penetrating DT, but not at the "stuffer" position. Edwards has a similar center of gravity to Sam, yet his far lesser talents at penetrating agsint run blocking leaves him, as pointed out here, a guy who's only attracting one body across the line. Sam demands 2 simply because of the trouble his first two steps will cause the offense. Anderson has a body type that might someday- with another 30 or 40 pounds of HGH permeated muscle- may become good in the run-stuffing role since he has the lower center of gravity you like in a run stuffer, he simply hasn't yet gained the size and strength to attract what is ultimately 1.5 blockers- a primary blocker and another assigned to chip him first before moving upfield.

 

What has been proven pretty dramatically in the biggest personnel gaffe made by our management in many years AFAIC is that:

 

A) The critical downs on defense are the running downs. The best teams have put an emphasis on the interior players in their run scheme because these are the guys that make your defense good. Sure the one gappers that play in the pass package will get the press and in most cases the bigger bucks, but it's the men of the run package who defenses are built upon. It's far easier to find acceptable talent at the pass package interior than the guys who play on 1st down, yet it's the 1st down linemen who have a dramatically larger influence on the quality of your D. Ron Edwards played in a top NFL defense as a passing down interior lineman last season- this year he his move to the run set precipitated the disaster we have become- and with NO end in site unless Lauvale Sape somehow does an Incredible Hulk impersonation for the balance of the season.

 

B) Quality interior defensive linemen, even if they're specialists who only play run package defense, are some of the least visible players in the league yet they can be the most critical of all in today's NFL. And to prove that argument I offer you the 2005 Buffalo Bills, a train wreck out of the gate due to the incredibly unforgiveable failure of our management to add even ONE credible DT to our roster in the offseason, an off-season in which it became clear to some of us that depth at DT was by far our biggest problem. I think most students of the modern NFL could have objectively looked at our situation and penciled us in for a veteran run stuffer PLUS a true young talent not looking for the development time Tim Anderson had proven to need.

 

 

The sad truth is the worst has happened- the lack of depth at DT has led to our inability to stop ANY offense but the Texans and our LBs being beat up and worse. The indicators are all there to suppose ONE single move to shore up the spot next to Big Sam would have kept us NFL contenders, instead we'll whimper this season away without even experiencing the hope of pretenders.

[bills_fan]

My only dissent is that your selection of games doesn't account for the times when our D got absolutely raped.

 

Unfortunately, they were the ones I could get. I would love to review the Pitt game.

 

As far as a possible solution goes, and I know that we need OL bad (and I am one of the biggest OL preachers around), but...

 

http://football.about.com/od/nationalfootb.../gabewatson.htm

 

THis guy would solve the problem. From the reviews...I'm thinking a young Ted Washington. Any Michigan guys want to shed some light on this guy?

[Bill from NYC]

>>>>Sam Adams has a high center for a big man and unfortunately he isn't the answer to any team's need for a solid run stuffer.<<<<

 

OK, I will not argue this point. But, do you think he could stuff the run any better than Anderson?

 

Also, if Anderson cannot stop the run, what CAN he do? Is is certainly not a Henry Thomas style sack artist, is he?

[stuckincincy]

The Bill's D as executed is easy to beat. CB's 10 yards off the LOS - no bump. LB's congregating around the LOS - blitz mania, and leaving the 5 to 10 yard zone easy for the picking. DE's covering that zone - please. So for the opponent's reciever or rb, if they get there in that void, it's off to the races.

 

LINEbackers should be BACKING the line.

 

If you want to risk a blitz, I suggest a fast-moving cb or safety. The Bills simply do not have the whippet-quick DE or the quick-off-the-snap LB.

 

That defense could be halfway decent if they stayed home and played defense following the Gospel according to Bud Grant or George Allen. The Bills' offense is a wounded thing, so IMO play it conventional on defense. It's not a fast-strike unit, that offense. You want low-scoring contests, with a lucky break deciding the contest in the last quarter or so.

 

And of course, dump any thoughts of playing prevent in the waning moments unless you lead by at least 12 points.

[Bill from NYC]

The Bill's D as executed is easy to beat. CB's 10 yards off the LOS - no bump. LB's congregating around the LOS - blitz mania, and leaving the 5 to 10 yard zone easy for the picking.  DE's covering that zone - please. So for the opponent's reciever or rb, if they get there in that void, it's off to the races.

 

LINEbackers should be BACKING the line.

 

If you want to risk a blitz, I suggest a fast-moving cb or safety.  The Bills simply do not have the whippet-quick DE or the quick-off-the-snap LB.

 

That defense could be halfway decent if they stayed home and played defense following the Gospel according to Bud Grant or George Allen. The Bills' offense is a wounded thing, so IMO play it conventional on defense. It's not a fast-strike unit, that offense.  You want low-scoring contests, with a lucky break deciding the contest in the last quarter or so.

 

And of course, dump any thoughts of playing prevent in the waning moments unless you lead by at least 12 points.

487269[/snapback]

 

Good points sic. Besides, none of the Bills LBs strike me as pure pass rushers ala Bryce Paup.

[AKC]

>>>>Sam Adams has a high center for a big man and unfortunately he isn't the answer to any team's need for a solid run stuffer.<<<<

 

OK, I will not argue this point. But, do you think he could stuff the run any better than Anderson?

 

Also, if Anderson cannot stop the run, what CAN he do? Is is certainly not a Henry Thomas style sack artist, is he? 

487266[/snapback]

 

I think given time and strength training, plus a great big bag of those things NFL linemen don't take, Tim Anderson might become a very good run stuffing lineman in the NFL. He has good form on most downs, he just is too small today to be impactive.

 

Can Sam do it? I think Bill's Fan makes the point well- he's the "complementary" linemen and to force him to "hold up ground", something more difficult for him than a PW type by his higher center of gravity, once again would find us doing the thing that got us into this disaster to begin with- trying to pound a square peg into a round hole. Sam is a penetrating DT who by the nature of his incredible size becomes a major asset in the run game- if he's playing next to a run stuffer.

 

I suggested this off-season that if Edwards ended up our starting DT next to Sam in run packages, we'd see 200 and 250 yard rushing days against us- If anyone would care to see me revise that figure to 350 yards simply suggest Sam Adams manning the NT spot in a 3-4.

[Campy]

ooooh I want to do an "I told you so"

 

I told you so, I told you so

487227[/snapback]

Good call man.

[Bill from NYC]

I think given time and strength training, plus a great big bag of those things NFL linemen don't take, Tim Anderson might become a very good run stuffing lineman in the NFL. He has good form on most downs, he just is too small today to be impactive.

 

Can Sam do it? I think Bill's Fan makes the point well- he's the "complementary" linemen and to force him to "hold up ground", something more difficult for him than a PW type by his higher center of gravity, once again would find us doing the thing that got us into this disaster to begin with-  trying to pound a square peg into a round hole. Sam is a penetrating DT who by the nature of his incredible size becomes a major asset in the run game- if he's playing next to a run stuffer.

 

I suggested this off-season that if Edwards ended up our starting DT next to Sam in run packages, we'd see 200 and 250 yard rushing days against us- If anyone would care to see me revise that figure to 350 yards simply suggest Sam Adams manning the NT spot in a 3-4.

487278[/snapback]

 

OK, but what, if anything, is the move right now?

From what I am reading from your posts, you seem to be spelling out a hopeless case for this season.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I was a bit bored and was able to get tapes of 3 games from the 04 season and contrast them with some games in the 05 season, to try and get a handle on what we did differently in our run D.  This is what I found out...

 

I contrasted these games from 04 (the Seattle game where we held Alexander to 39 yds, the Jets game in Buffalo, held Martin to 67 yards, and the Baltimore game, Lewis (not jamal) hit us for 89 yards on 21 carries) with the Atlanta game (1st half) and the TB game.  I picked these games from 05 because I wanted to see how we were doing with TKO.

 

The Bills scheme in 04 was predicated upon forcing the RB to run at Phat Pat, and pick a lane to either side of him.  Essentially the DEs rushed upfield and established containment outside.  Sam penetrated the backfield, trying to force the RB to cut towards PW.  PW, on damn near every play was doubled, but he held his ground.  That created three gaps for the RB to rush through...the spot Sam vacated, and on either side of PW.  TKO, Fletcher and Milloy generally filled the gaps nicely, making the tackle and not allowing the RB any room to move. 

 

Essentially our LBs & Milloy were the 3rd line of defense against the run.  First the DEs did a very nice job of holding outside containment and not letting the RB bust it outside.  Then Sam would shoot a gap and guess trying to make the tackle.  This is the essence of Sam's game, penetration, and he is very good at it. This strategy worked well as if Sam guessed wrong, PW was able to hold his ground and force the RB to make a split second decision and try a gap, where a LB or Milloy was waiting.  It was quite an effective scheme. 

 

Now, contrast that with the 05 Bills.  Basically, everything is the same except that Edwards or Anderson are not commanding a double team.  Sam has generally been beating the  double team he is commanding, but RE or TA is being blocked 1 on 1.  That leaves the opposing C, usually, to take on a LB in the gap.  Cadillac and Dunn/Duckett simply followed the C, who sealed off the gap leading to big gains.  Our LBs, then tried to compensate by not filling the gap but heading up field, guessing where the RB is, trying to make a play.  This is the infamous "losing gap responsibilities" that Gray spoke of.  The problem is that the gap is larger due to RE or TA being moved off the ball (didn't happen too often) but neither were ever doubled, which happened all the time with PW last year.  Also RE is more of a penetrater and not a stay-at-home lane clogger.

 

The conclusion I drew from this is that Pat Williams was the keystone in which our run D was built on.  The necessity for him to be doubled on 1st and 2nd down, allowed us to do more as far as filling the gaps to stop the run.  Essentially the LBs had either a clear lane or more time (due to the frequent chip blocks on PW that I saw) to fill the gap before the blocking and RB got to the hole.

 

Essentially, even tho PW played on only 60% of the defensive plays, his role was huge.  He occupied two blockers enabling our LB/Milloy or Sam to make the play almost unimpeded.  Then he came off the field on 2nd and long or 3rd down and Edwards, more of a penetrater, rushed the passer. 

 

For us to get back to being successful stopping the run, we NEED a guy to clog the lane and maintain his position.  It also won't hurt if he draws double teams.  Unfortunately, I don't know too many of those type of guys in the league.  We need a vet, probably signed as a FA because he needs a rep to draw double teams, who can clog the lane.  Is Big Ted available?

487095[/snapback]

 

Thanks for the detailed analysis which makes sense as you explain it.

 

However, it does raise a few questions which I look forward to having explained:

 

1. The Math- You have both Sam Adams and Phat Pat commanding a double-team. Its no wonder our D is cleaning house with 4 of the 10 players )minus their QB) dedicated to stopping only 2 of our guys. With our D playing 9 on 6 with a couple of these 2 of them split wide its no wonder we did well.

 

Needless to say your description needs a little more detail to make sense.

 

A. The double-teams a team employs are usually a little bit more variable than always assigning two players to on player. Sometimes the double will be the guard and the center while other times the dt may be the guard and the tackle. The center calls the blocking scheme on each play based on what he sees and calls out these assignments.

B. The double teams have a time element as well as a location element. A blocker may double team by taking two assignments, his primary block aimed to send a rusher in a particular direction and then he lets him go to either another blocker or away from the selected point of attack and then he goes to his secondary block which is probably merely a chip block on the player he is double teaming.

C. The selected point of attack is all important here as a player may get doubled if he heads for the piont of attack of the run but will be singled up if he is rushing away from the POA.

 

In general, the O is dictating and trying to do its thing to command the field, and they couldn't care less if they command that point because their DT beats a player or if that player simply abandons the point of attack and all it takes is a single blocker to keep the defeneders weight going in the right direction.

 

Sam Adams for example often commands a single blocker not because he is not good but because his rush is so strong to the side he is guessing, a single blocker (if he is quick enough to lay a mitt on Big Sam) can simply ride him out of the play if he is rushing in the wrong direction.

 

Your explanation would be clearer if you talked about the difference point of attack selection by the offense made in the success of each ruin. Did opponents use their blocking schemes differently last year to create a gap at the point of attack than they do this year and what is the Bills response to filling that gap.

 

2. Were their many first and second downs you observed when Phat Pat did not play and assuming so what difference did this make?

 

The Phat Pat being there for slightly under 60% of tje D snaos last year (58% of D snaps for PW is the number I remember) is significant because this likely means that PW was not out there on some first and second downs. If 1000% of th snaps were evenly divided between the 3 downs this would mean 33% apeice. Its not the case however, because opponents make first downs on some 1st and 2nds and there was no 3rd down in the series. There were more early downs to play and even if you took PW out on all 3eds, his total plays would be at 66% and actually significantly higher than that # (in general in the numbers I saw there was an allocation to ST for some snaps and I believe those were 4th down punts and FGs and the few plays which were 4th down D snaps were a small number).

 

At any rate, what do you remember about the play selection and results which likely occured a couple or more times a game where PW was not in for a potential or likely running play on 1st or 2nd down.

 

3. Did you review any of the games where Edwards commanded significant playing time even beyond obvious pass plays and how did he do?

 

My recollection of Sam throwing a hissy fit was not because he was benched because he blew the play, but he was benched on 3rd or other downs and was pised at the coaches for not putting him in all the time. My recollection of the Adams fits (which others mention in this thread) was that it was not a problem for the Bills but actually a great thing to see (particularly from a player who had a rep for taking plays off).

 

The Bills stuck with their DL rotation because it was working, but satisfied Adams by making and effort to use him in the redzone on offense (along with Bannan) and it paid off by improving our redzone play and Big Sam making the Pro Bowl,

 

The Adams hissy fits were misinterpreted by the announcers (imagine that) but did not strike me as a problem at all. Did you see anything?

[AKC]

OK, but what, if anything, is the move right now.

From what I am reading from your posts, you seem to be spelling out a hopeless case for this season.

487282[/snapback]

 

The answer is NOT on our roster. The talent we've got has already managed to decimate our LB corp and give up season and career performances to opposing RBs; the trading deadline has passed and it would seem that short of enticing someone out of retirement, "hopeless case" would be a fitting synopsis. We do not, nor have we had at any time this season, NFL quality starters and depth at DT.