Improving the Run Defense

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I think one of the first keys for anyone like me who thought the Bills D would be good (or if like Jerry Gray you said they would rival the 85 bears or recent Ravens squads) is to look at what you thought which was clearly wrong.

 

For me one thing I thought which certainly was a part of me being error that the Bills D would at least be adequate was that I figured since 10 off 11 starters were returning this crew would perform substantially like last year's D. Clearly they have not.

 

The obvious thing would be to figure that losing PW made that big of a difference. However, given that PW was not even in for less than 2/3 of the D snaps last year assuming he is gone is the reason does not make a lot of sense to explain it all.

 

Particularly since a big problem this year is failure to stop opponents on 3rd down and Phat Pat was not even a part of last year's still inadequate but not as atrocious as this year's third down problems, I don't think losing PW explains our issues (not even taking into account PW has not revolutionized MN's play.

 

Instead I think the reason for the surprising problems may actually lay in what I had figured would be a strength for this team that they returned this year virtually intact with 10 of 11 starters.

 

The key to the zone blitz being successful is that the pffense cannot predict where the blitz is coming from. They cannot tell whether pass coverage is going to be done by a player from a non-traditional position like DE Schobel doing one-on-one coverage on a TE or if Denny is lined up as a DT perhaps he drops back in pass coverage leaving an LB unblocked at the point of attack.

 

However, with a boatload of film of 10 of these 11 players lining up in a particular way or holding their body in a particular away, a good offense can read the Bills players and have a good guess as to what they are going to do that play/ A good QB will read the D and change the call to the best play given the personnel the Bills have on the field, the way they are lined up and a good well studied individual player may well be able to predict how best to take on a Bills player because he knows exactly what play the O called and has a pretty good idea from looking over film chosen from 16-23 examples of how this Bill is going to play a particular situation or a particular type of play.

 

Ironically, the problem here may be that the Bills have not made enougn personnel changes or gone away from what worked in the past to make the zone blitz fool the smart opponent.

[Buftex]

I think one of the first keys for anyone like me who thought the Bills D would be good (or if like Jerry Gray you said they would rival the 85 bears or recent Ravens squads) is to look at what you thought which was clearly wrong.

 

For me one thing I thought which certainly was a part of me being error that the Bills D would at least be adequate was that I figured since 10 off 11 starters were returning this crew would perform substantially like last year's D.  Clearly they have not.

 

The obvious thing would be to figure that losing PW made that big of a difference.  However, given that PW was not even in for less than 2/3 of the D snaps last year assuming he is gone is the reason does not make a lot of sense to explain it all. 

 

Particularly since a big problem this year is failure to stop opponents on 3rd down and Phat Pat was not even a part of last year's still inadequate but not as atrocious as this year's third down problems, I don't think losing PW explains our issues (not even taking into account PW has not revolutionized MN's play.

 

Instead I think the reason for the surprising problems may actually lay in what I had figured would be a strength for this team that they returned this year virtually intact with 10 of 11 starters.

 

The key to the zone blitz being successful is that the pffense cannot predict where the blitz is coming from. They cannot tell whether pass coverage is going to be done by a player from a non-traditional position like DE Schobel doing one-on-one coverage on a TE or if Denny is lined up as a DT perhaps he drops back in pass coverage leaving an LB unblocked at the point of attack.

 

However, with a boatload of film of 10 of these 11 players lining up in a particular way or holding their body in a particular away, a good offense can read the Bills players and have a good guess as to what they are going to do that play/  A good QB will read the D and change the call to the best play given the personnel the Bills have on the field, the way they are lined up and a good well studied individual player may well be able to predict how best to take on a Bills player because he knows exactly what play the O called and has a pretty good idea from looking over film chosen from 16-23 examples of how this Bill is going to play a particular situation or a particular type of play.

 

Ironically, the problem here may be that the Bills have not made enougn personnel changes or gone away from what worked in the past to make the zone blitz fool the smart opponent.

485742[/snapback]

 

Well, if you are right, and I am not sure you are, that is a huge condmenation of Jerry Gray. If you can notice this from the comfort of your couch, what the fug is Jerry Gray doing? Shouldn't he call in some new age "body language" coach to solve our runnig problems? Or should he just routinely let half the defense go, because he can't teach them to disguise the blitz?

 

Moreover, you may be right that the players are tipping off the blitz each play. But I think it has more to do with the blitz that are being called have become way too predictable, more than the players tipping things off.

 

I think that you are oversimplifying, and minimizing the loss of Pat Williams. I will take your word that he was not in the game for 2/3 of last years' plays. Even so, when you are talking about guys the size of DT's in the NFL, the more they play, the more they get gassed, and human nature to give less effort as you become tired, kicks in. Put it this way, if Tim Anderson is only playing on third down, he has much more energy to make a run stop, than he does if he is going near every down.

 

Pat Williams may have been over the hill, and not worth resigning for the bucks that the Vikings payed, but to replace him with a 4 year non-contributer (Ron Edwards) and an inexperienced 2nd year guy (Tim Anderson) and not expect a drop off in the defense is kind of fool hardy. This kind of move not only effects the line, but the linebackers, and consequently, the secondary. Sam Adams is tremendously athletic for such a large man, and a big part of his game is quickness and agressiveness. He can bust through an offensive line pretty regularly, but if he doesn't make a play in the backfield, the job falls on the previously mentioned unexperienced guy Anderson (who does not appear to be real athletic), and then onto a linebacker (London Fletcher) who has a tendancy to play a little too agressively at times, and is often not in position to make a solid tackle.

[eSJayDee]

I believe typically the 'film' that opposing players see of their opponents is only of the actual play (this was why teams way back when were taken by the pace of our no-huddle) not any pre-play. Granted, for example, to some extent a DL who is going to drop back in coverage might be prone to leaning backwards rather than forward (much like OL can tip off run or pass) but I don't think opponents are going to get much of an opportunity to see these things.

You might well have a valid point that we've exhausted our playbook (guess LeBeau only left Gray so much) and they've seen all that we can or might throw at them.

I tend to think that the problem lies in 2 areas.

1) our defensive plan yields excellent results against poor offenses (we played quite a few last year) but is merely mediocre at best against better teams

and

2) several of our key contributors are at a point in their careers where their play is far more likely to decline rather than improve.

[pope zimli]

With Spikes out I'm not sure if this is an option, but I would be tempted to go to a three/four defense and lay off much of the carefree blitz package. Further the best way to stop a running game is to keep the runner off the field. That means we should concentrate on clock management and using our running games (WM is perfect for it, he gets yardage and moves the chains). I'm not sure that we have the linebackers to go this route, but I don't see any other choice.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Well, if you are right, and I am not sure you are, that is a huge condmenation of Jerry Gray.  If you can notice this from the comfort of your couch, what the fug is Jerry Gray doing?  Shouldn't he call in some new age "body language" coach to solve our runnig problems?  Or should he just routinely let half the defense go, because he can't teach them to disguise the blitz? 

 

Moreover, you may be right that the players are tipping off the blitz each play.  But I think it has more to do with the blitz that are being called have become way too predictable, more than the players tipping things off.

 

I think that you are oversimplifying, and minimizing the loss of Pat Williams.  I will take your word that he was not in the game for 2/3 of last years' plays.  Even so, when you are talking about guys the size of DT's in the NFL, the more they play, the more they get gassed, and human nature to give less effort as you become tired, kicks in.  Put it this way, if Tim Anderson is only playing on third down, he has much more energy to make a run stop, than he does if he is going near every down. 

 

Pat Williams may have been over the hill, and not worth resigning for the bucks that the Vikings payed, but to replace him with a 4 year non-contributer (Ron Edwards) and an inexperienced 2nd year guy (Tim Anderson) and not expect a drop off in the defense is kind of fool hardy.  This kind of move not only effects the line, but the linebackers, and consequently, the secondary.  Sam Adams is tremendously athletic for such a large man, and a big part of his game is quickness and agressiveness.  He can bust through an offensive line pretty regularly, but if he doesn't make a play in the backfield, the job falls on the previously mentioned unexperienced guy Anderson (who does not appear to be real athletic), and then onto a linebacker (London Fletcher) who has a tendancy to play a little too agressively at times, and is often not in position to make a solid tackle.

485751[/snapback]

 

Regarding Phat Pat, I saw the stat a few places that he actually lined up for 58% of the D snaps last year, so I was inarticulate in leaving the impression he missed 2/3 when what i meant was he did not play 2/3 of the snaps (a 66% play rate).

 

This number is significant because it means that his use was dictated by a bit more than him always being taken out on 3rd downs. PW also was taken out on some first or second down plays for use of other players. Inherently the team faced more 1st and 2rd downs than 3rds so PW would have more than 66% of the snaps if he was simply always remove on 3rd. He did start all 16 last year so the lower number is probably voluntary rather than enforced.

 

Perhaps with the Bills forcing the opponents into passing situations by throwing the opponent for a loss on 1st down he was removed for a rusher on 2nd down but I do not think this explains the limits in the use of Phat Pat. My sense is that Gray/Krumrie felt the team was better often enough with Edwards or Denny manning the DT slot next to Adams last year and the results last year seem to bear this out.

 

This is not to say PW was not a good player because he is, noris this to say that though Edwards was a good reserve last year that he was a good starter this year (some players like Sean Moran at DT for the Bills were great reserves, but simply not good enough to start because they had to pace themselves to last the whole game).

 

Ultimately, I think it is a reasonable judgment that the Bills missed PW not because he is such a dominant player, but because he was adequate enough to give Edwards a chance to be a good reserve when he is not a good enough starter.

 

I think folks view this too simplistically when they choose to judge a player as either being a total stud or a total stiff.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I believe typically the 'film' that opposing players see of their opponents is only of the actual play (this was why teams way back when were taken by the pace of our no-huddle) not any pre-play.  Granted, for example, to some extent a DL who is going to drop back in coverage might be prone to leaning backwards rather than forward (much like OL can tip off run or pass) but I don't think opponents are going to get much of an opportunity to see these things.

You might well have a valid point that we've exhausted our playbook (guess LeBeau only left Gray so much) and they've seen all that we can or might throw at them.

I tend to think that the problem lies in 2 areas.

1) our defensive plan yields excellent results against poor offenses (we played quite a few last year) but is merely mediocre at best against better teams

and

2) several of our key contributors are at a point in their careers where their play is far more likely to decline rather than improve.

485765[/snapback]

 

 

One of the great things about digital technology is that as long as the camera is good enough to get the resolution, one can actually film the total play and then zoom into look at a specific part of that total play in great detail and also very quickly as the time that used to be needed to chemically develop film is gone (and much of the Kodak Co. in Rochester as well).

 

You see immediately on the sideline in games in the form of detailed still photographs which are circulated among the players on the sidelines to demonstrate, teach key points and make plans.

 

I suspect that during games, these photos are generally of the full field, set-ups and schemes rather than detail about particular players. However, I have certainly heard interviews where particular players talk about reviewing the moves and details about specific opponents they will face and if the Bills are not studying opponents at the level of detail the technology allows they are likely giving up an advantage to an opponent who chooses to use better technology and is more diligent in their studies.

[BB2004]

Regarding Phat Pat, I saw the stat a few places that he actually lined up for 58% of the D snaps last year, so I was inarticulate in leaving the impression he missed 2/3 when what i meant was he did not play 2/3 of the snaps (a 66% play rate).

 

This number is significant because it means that his  use was dictated by a bit more than him always being taken out on 3rd downs.  PW also was taken out on some first or second down plays for use of other players.  Inherently the team faced more 1st and 2rd downs than 3rds so PW would have more than 66% of the snaps if he was simply always remove on 3rd.  He did start all 16 last year so the lower number is probably voluntary rather than enforced.

 

Perhaps with the Bills forcing the opponents into passing situations by throwing the opponent for a loss on 1st down he was removed for a rusher on 2nd down but I do not think this explains the limits in the use of Phat Pat. My sense is that Gray/Krumrie felt the team was better often enough with Edwards or Denny manning the DT slot next to Adams last year and the results last year seem to bear this out.

 

This is not to say PW was not a good player because he is, noris this to say that though Edwards was a good reserve last year that he was a good starter this year (some players like Sean Moran at DT for the Bills were great reserves, but simply not good enough to start because they had to pace themselves to last the whole game).

 

Ultimately, I think it is a reasonable judgment that the Bills missed PW not because he is such a dominant player, but because he was adequate enough to give Edwards a chance to be a good reserve when he is not a good enough starter.

 

I think folks view this too simplistically when they choose to judge a player as either being a total stud or a total stiff.

486008[/snapback]

 

Good Post.

[John from Riverside]

Kinda off topic and kinda not......the whole run defense debocle so relates to the youth football team I coach that it saddens me......I get to watch the same mistakes made twice a weekend. As a matter of fact....the the OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE schemes are having the same problems....it just kills me.

 

The bills are using a ultra agressive blitzing scheme because they cannot get pressure with their down linemen........they blitz so much that they leave huge gaps in the defense that a snowplow could run through.......

 

My youth teams defensive coordinator is doing the same thing......he sends pressure on every down.....and the opposing offenses are waiting for our linebackers to run themselves out of the play...and taking advantage of our injury riddled defensive line who cannot get into the backfield. My son in particular will make a lot of big plays......but because there is no containment will also give them up here and there to.

 

On offense we are doing the same thing our bills offense is doing.....not running the ball enough to protect our suspect defense.

 

The week before last my kid had almost 85 yards on 6 carries......other ball carriers were also having some success but between the tackles we were chewing them up and spitting them out......BUT....we have this mad scientist asst to the OC that likes to pass a lot.......interceptions, dropped balls, and wasted opportunities brought a loss

 

The next week against a GOOD defense....we were smashing out 5 yards a carry against them and our OC just didn't have the patience to win a low scoring game.......sure enough after 8 minutes of tough running.....OC calls a pass that is intercepted inside the 10 yard line........

 

I wish both of my teams would wize the $*$* up

[BillnutinHouston]

A good QB will read the D and change the call to the best play given the personnel the Bills have on the field, the way they are lined up and a good well studied individual player may well be able to predict how best to take on a Bills player because he knows exactly what play the O called and has a pretty good idea from looking over film chosen from 16-23 examples of how this Bill is going to play a particular situation or a particular type of play.

485742[/snapback]

 

 

Sir, you are very hard to quote (or read, for that matter) due to the absolute lack of punctuation but when you state that an opposing offense has from 16-23 examples of how our D will play a particular situation, what do you base that on?

 

How do you get so precise?

[realtruelove]

Kinda off topic and kinda not......the whole run defense debocle so relates to the youth football team I coach that it saddens me......I get to watch the same mistakes made twice a weekend.  As a matter of fact....the the OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE schemes are having the same problems....it just kills me.

 

The bills are using a ultra agressive blitzing scheme because they cannot get pressure with their down linemen........they blitz so much that they leave huge gaps in the defense that a snowplow could run through.......

 

My youth teams defensive coordinator is doing the same thing......he sends pressure on every down.....and the opposing offenses are waiting for our linebackers to run themselves out of the play...and taking advantage of our injury riddled defensive line who cannot get into the backfield.  My son in particular will make a lot of big plays......but because there is no containment will also give them up here and there to.

 

On offense we are doing the same thing our bills offense is doing.....not running the ball enough to protect our suspect defense.

 

The week before last my kid had almost 85 yards on 6 carries......other ball carriers were also having some success but between the tackles we were chewing them up and spitting them out......BUT....we have this mad scientist asst to the OC that likes to pass a lot.......interceptions, dropped balls, and wasted opportunities brought a loss

 

The next week against a GOOD defense....we were smashing out 5 yards a carry against them and our OC just didn't have the patience to win a low scoring game.......sure enough after 8 minutes of tough running.....OC calls a pass that is intercepted inside the 10 yard line........

 

I wish both of my teams would wize the $*$* up

486569[/snapback]

 

I agree. We need to play more of a vanilla D and quit trying to make the big play. On offense, we need to commit to the run and keep the ball away from the other team. This team isn't going to win games 38-35. We will be lucky to win games 17-10.

[ofiba]

I agree.  We need to play more of a vanilla D and quit trying to make the big play.  On offense, we need to commit to the run and keep the ball away from the other team.  This team isn't going to win games 38-35.  We will be lucky to win games 17-10.

486719[/snapback]

No doubt about that Real T. Pound the rock!

[realtruelove]

No doubt about that Real T.  Pound the rock!

486721[/snapback]

 

If the Buffalo Defense was more Fake-Fat-Sunnyesque we would stymie our opponents in the Bermuda Triangle of prepositions, commas, and neverending paragraphs.

 

We would be undefeated.

[Campy]

If the Buffalo Defense was more Fake-Fat-Sunnyesque we would stymie our opponents in the Bermuda Triangle of prepositions, commas, and neverending paragraphs. 

 

We would be undefeated.

486727[/snapback]

 

But that's part of his charm.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Sir, you are very hard to quote (or read, for that matter) due to the absolute lack of punctuation but when you state that an opposing offense has from 16-23 examples of how our D will play a particular situation, what do you base that on?

 

How do you get so precise?

486612[/snapback]

 

16 games last season with roughly 10 of our 11 starters (Milloy and Vincent failed to start a number of games last year) and 7 games so far this year with 11 out of 22 (minus Spikes on film. This adds up to 16-23 games.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Kinda off topic and kinda not......the whole run defense debocle so relates to the youth football team I coach that it saddens me......I get to watch the same mistakes made twice a weekend.  As a matter of fact....the the OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE schemes are having the same problems....it just kills me.

 

The bills are using a ultra agressive blitzing scheme because they cannot get pressure with their down linemen........they blitz so much that they leave huge gaps in the defense that a snowplow could run through.......

 

My youth teams defensive coordinator is doing the same thing......he sends pressure on every down.....and the opposing offenses are waiting for our linebackers to run themselves out of the play...and taking advantage of our injury riddled defensive line who cannot get into the backfield.  My son in particular will make a lot of big plays......but because there is no containment will also give them up here and there to.

 

On offense we are doing the same thing our bills offense is doing.....not running the ball enough to protect our suspect defense.

 

The week before last my kid had almost 85 yards on 6 carries......other ball carriers were also having some success but between the tackles we were chewing them up and spitting them out......BUT....we have this mad scientist asst to the OC that likes to pass a lot.......interceptions, dropped balls, and wasted opportunities brought a loss

 

The next week against a GOOD defense....we were smashing out 5 yards a carry against them and our OC just didn't have the patience to win a low scoring game.......sure enough after 8 minutes of tough running.....OC calls a pass that is intercepted inside the 10 yard line........

 

I wish both of my teams would wize the $*$* up

486569[/snapback]

 

The question is if this is generally a implementstion of the scheme issue why was it pretty successful last year? My answer is that by running essentially the same scheme for 2 years in a row with 10 pf 11 of the same players, opponents now have enough tape to get down to some pretty individual and minuscule tendency reading of our players so opponents can figure out what they are likely to do next based on the situation and how our players are lined up.

[ganesh]

I agree.  We need to play more of a vanilla D and quit trying to make the big play. 

486719[/snapback]

 

And then there will be a big hue and cry on this board about the lack of

turnovers by this defense....Remember this 2 years ago....when we were

the last in turnovers in the league with somehting like 12 or 15 turnovers...

 

The bottom line is the DC has to mix it up....He needs to make his blitzing

a surprise weapon.....and put the extra man in the box to stop the run..

 

If we have so much confidence in our secondary, we should be able to

have Milloy up in the box for run support.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

And then there will be a big hue and cry on this board about the lack of

turnovers by this defense....Remember this 2 years ago....when we were

the last in turnovers in the league with somehting like 12 or 15 turnovers...

 

The bottom line is the DC has to mix it up....He needs to make his blitzing

a surprise weapon.....and put the extra man in the box to stop the run..

 

If we have so much confidence in our secondary, we should be able to

have Milloy up in the box for run support.

486971[/snapback]

 

If I had to point to the performance put out by one player as a key to our results this season (which I actually shoukd not to be accurate because it is a team game, but I;m just a fan so who cares about accuracy) it would not be Spikes cause he got hurt (Caddillac and AT ran all over him before he got hurt) or losing Phat Pat (we did quite fine when he sat out a large number of snaps last year) it would actually be Milloy who I think has disappointed in his performance.

 

I don't know if getting older has simply effected his play or getting older has made him more prone to serious injury and it cost him some starts last year and a wrist injury is making him less than effective this year, but he is the player on the D who has disappointed me most this year.

 

The bad news is that Coy Wire backs him up so I think we are stuck with what we got.

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

I know Jerry Gray can't be dumb, so I guess I'm confused. Why when what we're doing isn't working do we keep on doing it (blitzing)?

[stuckincincy]

If I had to point to the performance put out by one player as a key to our results this season (which I actually shoukd not to be accurate because it is a team game, but I;m just a fan so who cares about accuracy) it would not be Spikes cause he got hurt (Caddillac and AT ran all over him before he got hurt) or losing Phat Pat  (we did quite fine when he sat out a large number of snaps last year) it would actually be Milloy who I think has disappointed in his performance.

 

I don't know if getting older has simply effected his play or getting older has made him more prone to serious injury and it cost him some starts last year and a wrist injury is making him less than effective this year, but he is the player on the D who has disappointed me most this year.

 

The bad news is that Coy Wire backs him up so I think we are stuck with what we got.

487290[/snapback]

 

Playing safety behing Grey's blitz scheme isn't exactly a walk in the park...

[Mickey]

I think one of the first keys for anyone like me who thought the Bills D would be good (or if like Jerry Gray you said they would rival the 85 bears or recent Ravens squads) is to look at what you thought which was clearly wrong.

 

For me one thing I thought which certainly was a part of me being error that the Bills D would at least be adequate was that I figured since 10 off 11 starters were returning this crew would perform substantially like last year's D.  Clearly they have not.

 

The obvious thing would be to figure that losing PW made that big of a difference.  However, given that PW was not even in for less than 2/3 of the D snaps last year assuming he is gone is the reason does not make a lot of sense to explain it all. 

 

Particularly since a big problem this year is failure to stop opponents on 3rd down and Phat Pat was not even a part of last year's still inadequate but not as atrocious as this year's third down problems, I don't think losing PW explains our issues (not even taking into account PW has not revolutionized MN's play.

 

Instead I think the reason for the surprising problems may actually lay in what I had figured would be a strength for this team that they returned this year virtually intact with 10 of 11 starters.

 

The key to the zone blitz being successful is that the pffense cannot predict where the blitz is coming from. They cannot tell whether pass coverage is going to be done by a player from a non-traditional position like DE Schobel doing one-on-one coverage on a TE or if Denny is lined up as a DT perhaps he drops back in pass coverage leaving an LB unblocked at the point of attack.

 

However, with a boatload of film of 10 of these 11 players lining up in a particular way or holding their body in a particular away, a good offense can read the Bills players and have a good guess as to what they are going to do that play/  A good QB will read the D and change the call to the best play given the personnel the Bills have on the field, the way they are lined up and a good well studied individual player may well be able to predict how best to take on a Bills player because he knows exactly what play the O called and has a pretty good idea from looking over film chosen from 16-23 examples of how this Bill is going to play a particular situation or a particular type of play.

 

Ironically, the problem here may be that the Bills have not made enougn personnel changes or gone away from what worked in the past to make the zone blitz fool the smart opponent.

485742[/snapback]

Actually, we are missing Pat and Takeo. Adams is another year older. Our schedule is tougher. Add all that up and it isn't hard to see why this defense is struggling so much.

 

We had a weak pass rush last year which we made up for by bringing lots and lots of blitzes, even bringing DB's in on a regular basis. We got away with it against SF, Miami and Cleveland. That Pitt. game at the end of the season really laid bare the vulnerability of this defense. The teams that can pick up blitzes fairly well have killed us, those who can't have struggled with our defense. Since we can't play SF every week this year, we need better defensive personnel. This isn't an anomaly anymore, this is our defense.