Whose mre important to extend

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Hows this for controversy.

 

There certainly have been numerous voices on TSW declaring NC a god and demanding that TD resign him now (which I do not see happening because if I am NC I do not think the Bills cap situation allows them to even give me the contract I deserve and will get from them once a new salary cap is set next year). Despite his seeming Nate giveth (his INT return for a TD against Pitts last year was great) and Nate taketh away (his leaving a PR on the carpet last year against Pitts was part of a general meltdown with Lindell missing a chipshot FG, the D giving up over 100 to Parker and a TD druve ti Maddox and Bledsoe proving once again to be capable of carrying this team that led to this lose) many Bills partisans have clearly anointed resigning Nate as job 1 and job 1+ fpr TD to just git her done.

 

My first thought though was that the great KO returns this past weekend and his KR leading #s this season made this one a close call.

 

In fact, Clements has lost the PR job to Smith (and likely to Parrish even if Fast Freddy goes down). Further, Clements having a pretty bad game as CB on Sunday (exemplified by him getting a PI when he failed to play the ball on one endzone toss by Vinny right after McGee had played the previous pass perfectly) actually makes a good case for giving nod to McGee on this.

 

NC is clearly a better CB than McGee. Even despite the occaisonal CB adventures by Clements like the PI this weekend, McCarreins lighting up both CBs this past weenend, and the ill-fated and much lamented Clements failures against Jimmy Smith in the first game against Jax last year, NC is a better CB in my book. Though both were Pro Bowlers last year, McGee was there because of his return and not because of his CB play which saw him seemingly get burned for at least one long pass in every loss last year. NC did slide into the Pro Bowl due to an injury but he is as close to a shut down CB as we get and in addition to being a good cover guy is a ferocious tackler.

 

However, upon even further consideration of the logistics of contracts and the CBA rules, I do not think this is even close.

 

McGee is by far the more important player for the Bills to extend right now. This is a debatable point when it comes to quality of play and contribution to the Bills.

 

Both are Pro Bowlers but the McGee contribution is making our KR game lethal and Clements is our shut down corner. I think most TSW folks do not value ST high enough as i really think that like a performing O and a stout D it is a necessary but not sufficient part of a winning team. However, I too value a shut down corner more than a productive KR guy.

 

However, i don't think that McGee has reached his peak yet in development of his CB game and he actually is at or only a little behind the same level of production at this point in his career that Clements was.

 

1st year- McGee was a benchwarmer and learning the game, Clements was a starter at CB but was clearly not as good a CB as Winfield and opposing QBs went after the weaker Clements with some effectiveness. However, even as arookie, Clements showed some of the playmaker ability that is a strong part of his game as he picked off none other than Peyton Manning for an INT return in the flat.

 

2nd year- McGee had an early coming out as a player getting derved Pro Bolwer acknowledgement for his kick returns. he even began to show his development as a position player as an injury o Vincent forced him into starting duty. He clearly was far weaker than Clements as a CB and he routinely was targeted by opposing QB such that in the games we lost last year he had was usually picked on for at least one long pass per game. However, his play did improve with the experience of getting toasted as the season went on. Clements really progressed in his second year. He was still picked on because AW was still generally judged to be a better player (and in my view he was). However, he tirmed passes getting thrown his way a lot into 6 INTs and showed some outstandings on the field. he could still be picked and fooled from time to time like any young player but seemed clearly destined for great things.

 

3rd year- That is this year for McGee and 6 games into the season is leading the league in KY return average and though he has not scored yet he has demonstrated that his Pro Bowl KR performance was no accident. Further his play at CB has continued to improve and though NC is still a better CB (IMHO) it may well be simply a matter of time until McGee also is reasonably judged a shutdown corner. He makes good tackles also on ST (though he is not the force to be reckned with on coverage as he us is on the return game). At 5' 9" McGee is a bit short for dueling with taller WRs, but AW had already demonstrated that if a short player covers like a glove and is a fearsome hitter he can hold his own against the tall guys.

 

Clements third year was not a horribly impressive one as the Bills D improved but struggled anyway on a bad team and for example his INT numbers dropped though he still got his share of highlight reel INTs (ex. he did return an INT for the only TD we got in our ill-fated 1st game against Miami, though I was actually fa more impressed by his first INT in the game where he correctly read that MI and lined up no one to his side, he communicated quickly with Milloy to watch if the TE or anyone crossed to his side and the he freelanced out as a centerfielder and whe Fiedler did not recognize the switch and went deep on AW into what he thought was one on one coverage, NC came underneath for a clean pixk-off which was downright coverage artistry to watch.

 

Clements went on to have a career year in his fourth season as he took in 6 INTs even though opposing QBs often went after the young McGee. He continued with his PR duties and put up a long missing for the Bills TD as a PR guy. He put up a career year in tackles and has continued to be a fearsome tackler in his 5th year (though no where near the AW standard for feared CB tacklers. Even though he slimed in due to injury he clearly deserved the Pro Bowl honor and will be the most sought after CB in the free-maket (well somewhat free this off-season.

 

Nevertheless it is actually the rules surrounding the market from the CBa that makes McGee a much more important target for the Bills to extend than Clements.

 

The Bills leverage on McGee is clearly high. As an RFA, if the Bills make a semi-substantial but easy to do qualifying offer for him they can match any contract offer he recieves and if the decide to let him go they get substantial compensation from the team which signs him. Occaisionally an RFA will leave a team when the acquiring team offers him a contract which the orginal team cannot match for cap or Wil Woolford reasons but it is rare and almost certainly the Bills could keep McGee next year on a one year deal.

 

The Bills leverage would allow them to extend McGee for 4 years or so at a far lower contract than FAs get today because the deal would allow McGee's ship to come in a year and half earlier than the CBA contract calls for

 

On the other hand, as an FA Clements does have the right enter the free-market and likely he would get a huge offer from an opposing team the Bills cannot match. The market for him is likely to be so huge that it made no sense really at all for NC to sign this past off-season. Even the biggest contract the Bills could offer Clements under the current cap would necessitate Clements getting a split bonus so even with proration the Bills could match what the market will likely give Clements under a greatly expanded salary cap next year when the TV contracts kick in. NC could make himself immune to injury by signing a segmented or smaller deal with the Bills, but no one has ever accurately accused NC of being a scaredy and lacking confidence in himself so my sense is that while TD would have loved to have judt gotten a deal done it was actually NC that would have found it dumb to sign.

 

This may even prove to be the case when FA starts, but the Bills are in the strong position that they can simply give Clements the franchise tag and get him for another year at the tiop 5 CB average pay.

 

The fact the cap will go way up next year will allow them to likely easily absorb the problem that the payment to NC cannot be prorated. NC on the other hand would likely get more $ upfront from the bonus payment than the average of the top 5 salaries and he would have to risk injury yet another season and simply live with the uncertainties of playing the free-market yet again in 2006.

 

I think it is probably the most cost efficient and puts both players on the field next year as Bills if the extend McGee and either extend JC or simply tah him. McGee is my top priority to resign as my leverage over him goes down overtime precipitously while it remains fairly stable with Clements for a couple of years until the top 5 CB average edges up to catch the expanded team salary cap.

 

I think this pressure actually probsbly forces NC to sign with us long-term. The Bills CB situation looks very solid to me is not a panic at all.

[Ramius]

Good lord, can you keep anything under 5,000 worsd?

 

without reading all that, its more important and cost effective to get mcgee for $15-20 mil than it is to get Nate for $50 mil (and thats what he'll get on the open market)

[Pete]

both. Mcgee and Clements in 2006 are not mutally exclusive

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

While Mcgee is a very exciting player, and a good case can be made that due to his kick return abilities that he's more of a playmaker then self promoted "playmaker" Nate Clements. I just feel the gap between their cornerback play is a pretty big gap. Mcgee is a fine #2 corner, maybe even one of the better #2's in the game, but he's not close in cover ability to Nate Clements. The dropoff in pass defense losing nate and promoting terrence would be a bigger dropoff then signing nate and losing terrence.

 

It just seems like guys like Mcgee come and go. Darrent Williams the corner Denver took seems like another terrence mcgee in the making. Justin Miller for the jets has the potential to be a pretty good kick returner as well. while true #1 corners are few and far between. Unless a corner similar to skill to clements is available in free agency or if we can drastically improve our pass rush signing Nate should be priority #1. I don't know who the free agent corners are this year, but this doesn't seem to be a case of when washington traded bailey and shawn springs (who imo is the #1 corner when healthy) fell into their lap.

[finknottle]

both.  Mcgee and Clements in 2006 are not mutally exclusive

482843[/snapback]

 

but they might be if you throw in anybody else who comes up in the next few years... TKO and WM, and the occasional lineman come to mind.

[finknottle]

While Mcgee is a very exciting player, and a good case can be made that due to his kick return abilities that he's more of a playmaker then self promoted "playmaker" Nate Clements.  I just feel the gap between their cornerback play is a pretty big gap.  Mcgee is a fine #2 corner, maybe even one of the better #2's in the game, but he's not close in cover ability to Nate Clements.  The dropoff in pass defense losing nate and promoting terrence would be a bigger dropoff then signing nate and losing terrence. 

 

It just seems like guys like Mcgee come and go. Darrent Williams the corner Denver took seems like another terrence mcgee in the making. Justin Miller for the jets has the potential to be a pretty good kick returner as well. while true #1 corners are few and far between.  Unless a corner similar to skill to clements is available in free agency or if we can drastically improve our pass rush signing Nate should be priority #1.  I don't know who the free agent corners are this year, but this doesn't seem to be a case of when washington traded bailey and shawn springs  (who imo is the #1 corner when healthy) fell into their lap.

482847[/snapback]

 

Is it better to have a shutdown corner and a nobody, or two good corners? I think you sign quality depth, because in this league people WIN by exploiting mismatches at corners 2 & 3 and linebackers who can't cover. Spread your money wisely, and let NC go.

[Rico]

both.  Mcgee and Clements in 2006 are not mutally exclusive

482843[/snapback]

Exactly, thanks for cutting to the chase.