Casey D Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 Three games the Bills must have to stay in the playoff chase. The first is next week against Oakland. Oakland is no pushover, but if they can't beat a team like Oakland on the road right now, it's over. They must, of course, get some road wins. Next must win is at home against NE in December--must have a split against NE and the Bills almost certainly won't win in NE given the history, NE's bye, etc. Last game against the Jets on the road on 1/1. Jets should be running for the bus, they've got to sweep against at least one team in East. If the Bills can win these three games, they have a shot. They would need to win 2 of 3 against KC, Carolina and Denver at home(which won't be easy, but possible), and another road game against either NE(very unlikely)SD(equally unlikely) Cincinnati(possible late in season) Miami(best chance as game is in December and Miami may be reeling by then--also the best game to win from a TB standpoint). Any of these scenarios could be mixed and matched, so long as they get at least 3 wins from these 7 games. This scenario gets the Bills to 9-7, with a good chance to hold the tiebreakers against all other AFC East teams--could be enough to win the division. One more win to get to 10 almost certainly will be enough. But w/o the win this week--assuming no miracle in NE--I think the Bills' realistic chances are over. So unless they win this week, I will continue to limit my expectations for this team--and I am by no means sanguine they will win this week given what I have seen the last two weeks...CD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffan00 Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 Three games the Bills must have to stay in the playoff chase. The first is next week against Oakland. Oakland is no pushover, but if they can't beat a team like Oakland on the road right now, it's over. They must, of course, get some road wins. Next must win is at home against NE in December--must have a split against NE and the Bills almost certainly won't win in NE given the history, NE's bye, etc. Last game against the Jets on the road on 1/1. Jets should be running for the bus, they've got to sweep against at least one team in East. If the Bills can win these three games, they have a shot. They would need to win 2 of 3 against KC, Carolina and Denver at home(which won't be easy, but possible), and another road game against either NE(very unlikely)SD(equally unlikely) Cincinnati(possible late in season) Miami(best chance as game is in December and Miami may be reeling by then--also the best game to win from a TB standpoint). Any of these scenarios could be mixed and matched, so long as they get at least 3 wins from these 7 games. This scenario gets the Bills to 9-7, with a good chance to hold the tiebreakers against all other AFC East teams--could be enough to win the division. One more win to get to 10 almost certainly will be enough. But w/o the win this week--assuming no miracle in NE--I think the Bills' realistic chances are over. So unless they win this week, I will continue to limit my expectations for this team--and I am by no means sanguine they will win this week given what I have seen the last two weeks...CD 477841[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 This scenario gets the Bills to 9-7, with a good chance to hold the tiebreakers against all other AFC East teams--could be enough to win the division. One more win to get to 10 almost certainly will be enough. But w/o the win this week--assuming no miracle in NE--I think the Bills' realistic chances are over. So unless they win this week, I will continue to limit my expectations for this team--and I am by no means sanguine they will win this week given what I have seen the last two weeks...CD 477841[/snapback] I wouldn't go so far as they have to win this week, but they do need to win one of the next two to have a shot. With the way NE has been playing as of late I wouldn't chalk up an automatic win for them against anybody (though at the same time I still think they're good enough to beat anybody, talk about an enigma). The next two games are huge for the Bills. Lose them both and the chances of making the playoffs are almost nil. Win them both and the Bills are suddenly the favorite to win the division. Split them and they still have a shot at the playoffs. Sure they could lose them both and still make the playoffs but I wouldn't put too much confidence in a team that hasn't won a single road game at the halfway point. My guess is they'll win at Oakland and lose an NE and go into the break 4-4 as this goes along with my "worst possible scenario" theory. The theory being that the Bills will hang around the fringe of the playoffs all year, Losman will get no more playing time, and the Bills will just miss the playoffs. Yeah, I'm a negative guy, so shoot me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Chipper Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 4-4 going into the bye week after a 1-3 start? That would mean 2-1 in the division and 4-1 in the afc if we beat tha raiders and lose in ne. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeBill Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 I think in trying to decipher if the Bills will make the playoffs, you need to have should win and shouldn't win games. SHOULD WIN (10)- Houston, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Miami twice, Jets twice, Oakland, Denver, Cincinnati SHOULD NOT WIN (6) - Atlanta, New England twice, Kansas City, San Diego, Carolina We are already behind (losing to Tampa and New Orleans)... meaning that we have to pick up two games from the Should NOT win category. (I think New England once and KC). If we lose another should win game, we need to win a should NOT game. I think that makes sense... I always look at the seasons in this manner. You can mix in and out different teams, but I think everyone agrees that the Bills are at least 1 game behind at this point and have to beat a team that nobody expected if we want to make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taterhill Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 switch cinci with carolina...cincy looks like a 13-3 team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted October 17, 2005 Author Share Posted October 17, 2005 I think in trying to decipher if the Bills will make the playoffs, you need to have should win and shouldn't win games. SHOULD WIN (10)- Houston, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Miami twice, Jets twice, Oakland, Denver, Cincinnati SHOULD NOT WIN (6) - Atlanta, New England twice, Kansas City, San Diego, Carolina We are already behind (losing to Tampa and New Orleans)... meaning that we have to pick up two games from the Should NOT win category. (I think New England once and KC). If we lose another should win game, we need to win a should NOT game. I think that makes sense... I always look at the seasons in this manner. You can mix in and out different teams, but I think everyone agrees that the Bills are at least 1 game behind at this point and have to beat a team that nobody expected if we want to make the playoffs. 477875[/snapback] I get your point, I think it's interesting to think about it this way, but you have the Bills going 6-2 on the road, and only 4-4 at home on your list. If you are to make the playoffs at 10-6, it's got to be the other way around, 6-2 at home, .500 on the road. I think Tampa on the road is much harder than Carolina at home, so I'd switch those. Same with KC at home v. Cincinnati on the road, those should be switched in my opinion. I think NO on the road was a game we should have had, along with Oakland, NYJ and some other road game. So I'd say we are 1 behind right now, not 2. If we were 4-2 right now, I'd say we were having a good year so far. 3-3 is much more precarious...CD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeBill Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 Good points... I often overlook the Home Field Advantage factor. I hope the Bills don't lose to Oakland because of that. Because then I think we will be 3 games behind. Not a good place to be if you are the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted October 17, 2005 Author Share Posted October 17, 2005 Good points... I often overlook the Home Field Advantage factor. I hope the Bills don't lose to Oakland because of that. Because then I think we will be 3 games behind. Not a good place to be if you are the Bills. 477894[/snapback] Agreed. As I wrote to start, especially having lost on the road to NO already, this week is a must win road game if the Bills are to realistically have a playoff chance. Starting 0-3 on the road, with remaining road games at NE, SD, Cincy, Miami and NYJ, means it is really over, in my opinion. If they go 3-5 into the break, Losman should be starting the rest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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