Inability to stop the run: where's the problem?

[stuckincincy]

BTW, hats off to Curtis Martin. What a great player, now #7 on the rushing list.

 

http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/ny-...tball-headlines

[bills_fan]

What a great player, now #7 on the rushing list.

 

I think thats total yards from scrimmage. I think he's #4 on the rushing list.

[Guest BackInDaDay]

Milloy was set near the LoS most of the day, he wasn't set deep that often.

I can't speak to the second long run by Martin (I stepped out at halftime and didn't get back until just before the INT), but on the first long run Milloy was in the proper position to make the play until the last moment.  Instead of playing it conservatively and making a tackle 4-5 yards past the LoS he shot through a gap where he thought Martin was going to go, got walled off by an offensive lineman engaged with a DL and wasn't in position to make the tackle.  Consequently Martin took off down field.

 

That's the main problem I see in general with this run D.  The players are losing containment in the attempt to make a big play (see Sam Adams).  When it works the D looks great.  When it doesn't big plays often result.  Obviously, this is the type of D the Bills prefer to play.  Go for broke and hope the offense doesn't burn you.  However, the last guy I want to consistently be out of position on D is the SS.  Milloy needs to rein it in a little bit.

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Thanks MDH.

 

I think you're describing an aspect of the SS's role in some '46' schemes Gray inherited from Williams/Fisher/Ryan. A traditional '46' brings the SS up to the LOS. He has man coverage on the TE for pass D, and an assigned gap for rush D. So this may explain Milloy's appearing out of position to make the play. You expect him to play it like a LB - read and find the ball - but that probably wasn't his assignment.

 

Gray, like the coaches he's worked with, employs high-risk/high-reward Ds by trying to over-match an O's blocking scheme - 6 men rushing 5, etc. Containment is sacrificed for turnovers.

[Kelly the Dog]

My thoughts are, in order...

 

1. The DTs and LBs at different times are not playing their role and are going after the ball or out of their assignment at too great a clip. That kills you if that is where the other team is running. That is by far the biggest problem.

 

2. The DTs are getting manhandled and the routes for the LBs to get to the ball carrier is much tougher because of it. They are using Wire-esque angles to get to the runners who easily avoid them with one cut back and suddenly the field is wide open.

 

3. TKO's injury. Crowell has been getting killed but made up for some of it with an enormous play yesterday.

 

4. We're playing our ends a little too far to the outside for my taste and then often lining up the backer, commonly Posey, well outside of that on the line. If the other team calls a standard run play off tackle we're simply not in a good position to defend it, as our DT (be he Edwards or Anderson or Bannan) is getting pushed down the line rather easily.

 

5. Milloy's injury prevents him from locking guy's up and taking them down on the spot. This was particularly true in the Falcons game when it first happened. Vincent has no such excuse and has been whiffing. Fletcher's leg hurt him in two early games as far as getting to the play to make it in time.

 

6. Gray's blitzing, which I affirm is necessary because we get no rush without it, has been on the wrong end of a few good (and/or lucky calls) by the offense that ran right to that spot.

 

7. Adams, while he has had two mostly monster games in the last two, seemed to wander emotionally as he is wont to do sometimes. He cannot do that if there is no one beside him making plays and clogging lanes.

 

8. We played against some very good rushing teams and some good running backs, even if they may have had poor games this season.

 

9. We stink sometimes.

[AKC]

No worries-

 

We're facing the second worst rushing offense in the league next weekend. Feature back Lamont Jordan is averaging 3.6 YPC, almost a yard shy of Willis.

 

Then again, the same could have been said last week about the Jets, who moved 4 or 5 spots up the rushing offense ladder by facing us-

[Guest BackInDaDay]

No worries-

 

We're facing the second worst rushing offense in the league next weekend. Feature back Lamont Jordan is averaging 3.6 YPC, almost a yard shy of Willis.

 

Then again, the same could have been said last week about the Jets, who moved 4 or 5 spots up the rushing offense ladder by facing us-

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KOD!

 

Kiss Of Death

[PHAN]

It's not Sam Adams' fault.He is your D MVP..imo

[AKC]

It's not Sam Adams' fault.He is your D MVP..imo

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Sammy is not a run stopper- he's a DT with a great first two steps and that's far more valuable in pass rushing. He would be complemented by a solid big body like the one we let go, a stay-at-home DT like PWilliams. At this time Tim Anderson, who has pretty good technique but isn't yet big/strong enough to hold down the fort, looks like he's about a year away from being a good option. Problme we have right now is he's our only option.

 

AFA Sam being our D MVP, I'd agree that if he were not playing in our D we'd already be packing up the season.

 

Nice to see Ricky coming right in with a clear head for you guys ;-)

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

That said, it wasn't too bad yesterday.  Martin got 90 yards on 2 carries. 

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The problem is that this is happening every game--we've given up huge runs to Cadillac, Pittman, Martin, and Dunn. We've also given up sizeable runs to Ronnie Brown, Duece McCallister, and TJ Duckett.

 

My diagnosis of the problem is this: (1) Our d-line is playing poorly; (2) Crowell is getting abused (engulfed by blockers); and (3) To attempt to stop the run, Gray's been running a ton of run blitzes, leaving us vulnerable to getting burned on big plays.

 

For those ripping Milloy, I think any decrease in his play is more attributed to his busted thumb than his age.

[stuckincincy]

Spikes is missed. Lucky for the Bills that they had some home dates against more or less equal clubs to try to work things out. They have 2 road games coming up.

[MDH]

The problem is that this is happening every game--we've given up huge runs to Cadillac, Pittman, Martin, and Dunn. We've also given up sizeable runs to Ronnie Brown, Duece McCallister, and TJ Duckett.

 

My diagnosis of the problem is this: (1) Our d-line is playing poorly; (2) Crowell is getting abused (engulfed by blockers); and (3) To attempt to stop the run, Gray's been running a ton of run blitzes, leaving us vulnerable to getting burned on big plays.

 

For those ripping Milloy, I think any decrease in his play is more attributed to his busted thumb than his age.

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I'd buy the Crowell excuse if this D wasn't getting run over while Spikes was still in the lineup. I've seen no real dropoff in our run D since Crowell took over. It sucked before and it sucks now.

 

I'll agree that part of the problem is Gray and his love of all things BLITZ!

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I'd buy the Crowell excuse if this D wasn't getting run over while Spikes was still in the lineup.  I've seen no real dropoff in our run D since Crowell took over.  It sucked before and it sucks now. 

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I'm not sure how bad it was with Spikes in there. The Bucs ran all over us--but I think that was more a product of the defense being on the field for 40 minutes in 100 degree heat. And we obviously shut the Texans run game down.

 

The few big runs Martin had yesterday, I thought I saw Crowell get eaten up on. I'd love to see someone go back and look at the film to see if Crowell is the problem.

[MDH]

The Bucs ran all over us--but I think that was more a product of the defense being on the field for 40 minutes in 100 degree heat.

 

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That was the excuse given but after seeing every single team run all over us I'm more inclined to believe it was just our shoddy run D.

[obie_wan]

I actually think it is more of a failure by a group of players to exercise the scheme properly rather than simply a problem of bad play by one player.

 

I think you see this in a big part of yesterday's run D problem not being a consistent failure to stop Martin from getting 4-7 yards on multiple plays, but them generally stopping him but givomg up 2 huge runs of 40+ yards.

 

One these plaus, Martin not only cut through the DL positions you named as though they were butter, but also LBs like Crowell were effectively stymied by a blocker, safeties like Milloy who had run stopping duty on one of the runs were ridden out of the play and did not engage at the point of attack and even a broadcaster noted that the problem on one play was Nate Clements getting sucked in so that he was not there as a safety valve to provide run support because he certainly was not doing any pass coverage on the play either.

 

How do the Bills get better?

 

In my mind it is a combination of possibilities.

 

The best teams on D (which the Bills have claimed to be) simply perform well as a team every single play. The Bills players do their part and play their role on almost all plays, but giving up runs of 40+ a couple of times a game is not acceptable and the players simply need to perform better. My sense is that the individuals really are trying to do too much and when multiple players do this on the same play they get burned. The culprits in terms of their particular game are in my mind:

 

1. Crowell is getting better as he gets more experience, but Spikes provides big shoes to fill.  If he uses the INT he got yesterday to increase his calmness and consistency this will work better, but if he plays off of it and Gray emphasizes making big plays he will do this from time to time, but we will also get burned from time to time. Oddly enough I think if he is more Posey like we will perform better.

 

2. Clements is a great player but i think is a little to addicted to the headlines as he is in his contract year. If I were him I do not resign with the Bills until after the season anyway at all because he will get a bigger contract than the Bills can give him under the salary cap right now so simply signing him is not a realistic answer. However, he needs to play within himself a bit and we would be more effective.

 

3. Milloy I think is the difficult problem to solve here because I think his decline is simply due to him getting older so I think there is little choice here but to tough it out and hope for the best. I do not see his back-up Wire stepping up here so ultimately we are going to need a better player. As Milloy is older and thus subjet to more frequent nicks and missed games I'd keep an eye on the waiver wire for Milloy's heir apparent here and work Leonhard in practice to make the switch in his play from FS to SS.

 

Overall, Gray needs to really ask himself if out high-risk scheme is the best thing for the players we got. I do not see us changing at this point in the season but our players may simply not be good enough (particularly after the loss of Spikes) to operate effectively in as diverse a scheme as we have. The good news is that the saving grace may actually be improved effectivenness by the DL because this will actually serve to take pressure off the LBs and run support pressure off the DBs. The monster play f Sam Adams and the Denney sacks yesterday were a great sign.

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newsflash-

 

we play a high risk scheme because we don;t have enough talent to win man-on -man.

 

 

 

PS: Vince Wilfork sure would have helped

[Typical TBD Guy]

Great job Kelso.  I agree completely.  I love Milloy but yeah this year he has been tackling like, well....Mark Kelso.

Can somebody give me the short version of FFS's rebuttal?

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Short version: He disagrees with me on points A (PW), B (Schobel), and F (Gray).

 

Longer version because of my own rebuttal:

 

On point A, FFS thinks that our D last year was just as effective on the plays that PW took off as it was when he was playing. But to me, this is VERY debatable. Edwards usually substituted for PW on the passing downs last year, but even when Edwards ended up having to face run plays, the drop-off (based only on memory, though I’d like to see the stats to prove otherwise) was noticeable.

 

On point B, FFS thinks that Schobel's poor run defense isn't the issue because of how we use him during zone blitzes... . Maybe I didn't understand FFS correctly, but Schobel does not drop back on most plays that end up as runs. He’s up front with the rest of the DL, and many times is getting manhandled enough to the point where it’s either a LB (sometimes Milloy) left to fill both gaps alongside Schobel or it’s an easy 10+ yds for the opposing RB.

 

On point F, FFS thinks Gray has definitely proven his ability to make effective in-game adjustments over the past 2 years. He’s correct here, but only to a point; the “adjustments” in 2003 and 2004 were more like minor tweaks within the basic 46 D framework (i.e., which of the particular LB’s or DB’s to send blitzing and from what direction). In essence, Gray is a DC who is deeply married to one particular system and who may not be capable of doing much else if his system isn’t working under the current players carrying it out.

 

So while the truly very good DC’s in the league can dramatically alter their strategies at times to fit the available players, Gray doesn’t seem to have that ability. I realize that losing Spikes and Pat Williams would hurt almost any good DC, but it shouldn’t hurt to the point that we are 30th against the run and 27th on 3rd downs ! Please note, however, that I am calling Gray out as an overrated DC but not as a “bad” one. I realize that there are many DC’s in this league who can’t even get good results when they have good players (prime example: whoever is running KC's D this season ).

[bdelma]

Ron Edwards isn't missed. Frigging guy has been hurt since he's been here. How about our inside LBs. London has seen enough of tackes over time.

[BillsWatch]

Where is Sape? Surely he can't be worse than the Anderson-Bannan combo and should get some chances on the field...

477853[/snapback]

 

Bannan was playing well the few times the camera was in his area even making it to backfield disrupting play. I can not recall seeing Sape.

[Buffaloed in Pa]

This is a question for anyone who tapes the games.  My guess is that it's a combination of Schobel and Anderson, since it seems nearly all of the big runs have come from that side.  I saw Denney in for Schobel a couple of times too.

 

LBs at fault too?  Can it be fixed with the personnel we have? If we can't stop the run, I can't see too many more wins coming...

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Tim mushball Anderson#77 for the most part get`s manhandled..old jello arm`s need`s to put down the bag of pork rind`s and hit the iron

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Short version: He disagrees with me on points A (PW), B (Schobel), and F (Gray).

 

Longer version because of my own rebuttal:

 

On point A, FFS thinks that our D last year was just as effective on the plays that PW took off as it was when he was playing. But to me, this is VERY debatable. Edwards usually substituted for PW on the passing downs last year, but even when Edwards ended up having to face run plays, the drop-off (based only on memory, though I’d like to see the stats to prove otherwise) was noticeable.

 

On point B, FFS thinks that Schobel's poor run defense isn't the issue because of how we use him during zone blitzes... . Maybe I didn't understand FFS correctly, but Schobel does not drop back on most plays that end up as runs. He’s up front with the rest of the DL, and many times is getting manhandled enough to the point where it’s either a LB (sometimes Milloy) left to fill both gaps alongside Schobel or it’s an easy 10+ yds for the opposing RB.

 

On point F, FFS thinks Gray has definitely proven his ability to make effective in-game adjustments over the past 2 years. He’s correct here, but only to a point; the “adjustments” in 2003 and 2004 were more like minor tweaks within the basic 46 D framework (i.e., which of the particular LB’s or DB’s to send blitzing and from what direction). In essence, Gray is a DC who is deeply married to one particular system and who may not be capable of doing much else if his system isn’t working under the current players carrying it out.

 

So while the truly very good DC’s in the league can dramatically alter their strategies at times to fit the available players, Gray doesn’t seem to have that ability. I realize that losing Spikes and Pat Williams would hurt almost any good DC, but it shouldn’t hurt to the point that we are 30th against the run and 27th on 3rd downs ! Please note, however, that I am calling Gray out as an overrated DC but not as a “bad” one. I realize that there are many DC’s in this league who can’t even get good results when they have good players (prime example: whoever is running KC's D this season ).

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KH-

 

I think the record last year indicates that the conclusion you initially reached on Gray just doesn't match. While "lightening" it a bit in this post to ackowledge he makes effective in game tweaks while you still find not bad but overrated, I still don;t think your analysis points toward the real issue here (if he is overrated this is not his fault its the stupid observers and why them overrating him is leading to the Ds problems this year doesn't make sense since the Bills problems aren't caised by bad pundits but is rooted in something the team is not doing.

 

I start with questioning your assessment of Gray as a tweaker doing small in game fixes because I had this same concern myself when the Bills chose to keep Gray instead of LeBeau, but I think the key leading point which Gray demonstrated last year was that in fact he was more than just a play caller but had a good strategic sense.

 

Gray demonstrated early on that the fear of a lack of strategic ability on his part was not a problem and this is seen in the game results. While the Bills were going 0-4 the D gave up 13 point, 13 points, 31 points (a definite clinker to the SB champions though it might be noted the Bills were actually going for the go-ajead TD in the 4th when the Pats D scored on a Bledsoe fumble and Seymour rumbled to a long score which cannot be blamed on the D) and 16 points.

 

The low point totals yielded to the opponents in these losing causes are an indication of Gray putting together a D STRATEGY which proved capable of holding most opponents below 20 points even when we were losing.

 

If you want validation of this point beyond my rantings, it was this performance which earned Gray a contract extension as seen in the following quote in Bills Daily:

 

"The way this offense was playing you have to take your chances. Jerry Gray showed why he deserved the contract extension he got this week. He made adjustments and shut down the Ravens in the second half."

 

Of particular note was that in this losing cause it was far from tweaks that Gray designed and implemented but large changes in how the Bills were playing the Ravens which made a big difference in the game.

 

This came after the Miami game where the minor tweaks you mention resulted in Sammy Morris dropping from 81 yards gained in the first half to 10 in the second half (are you sure it was mere small adjustments that did this?)

 

This was followed by the Bills beating up Arizona leading to Bills Daily saying:

 

"Jerry Gray once again made the right adjustments in the run defense holding them to 31 yards rushing after halftime"

 

While Bills Daily is not the be all and end all of judgment, it isn't just me that remembers "adjustments" by Gray which may have been minor tweaks from your point of view but these changes had major impact on the game.

 

After this game the winning streak was on and Gray's results were for the most part the same.

 

In addition to the game results last year not being adequately (at all) described by your conclusion, the concept of Gray being mired in his system also doesn't fit reality.

 

If one remembers those horrid days under GW, Gray's system was actually the GW system which we did not have the personnel at all to run (a Kearse and a Blaine Bishop). One might accuse him as you do of being committed to his sytem even though ineffective, however, he switched on a virtual dime and learned and adopted the LeBeau system so effectively that he could make the correct calls with a new system to the extent the D results improved dastically that year thanks to LeBeau's strategy as implemented by Gray.

 

If he is so mired in one system why did he not switch back as soon as he got the reins and LeBeau left. Instead the unit improved in its performance with this "non-strategist" at the helm alone.

 

This post only focuses on this one aspect of disagreement but I am drawn to it because the conclusions you draw simply are counter to reality as I see it. This surprises me because usually I like and learn from your views.