Inability to stop the run: where's the problem?

[TPS]

This is a question for anyone who tapes the games. My guess is that it's a combination of Schobel and Anderson, since it seems nearly all of the big runs have come from that side. I saw Denney in for Schobel a couple of times too.

 

LBs at fault too? Can it be fixed with the personnel we have? If we can't stop the run, I can't see too many more wins coming...

[VABills]

This is a question for anyone who tapes the games.  My guess is that it's a combination of Schobel and Anderson, since it seems nearly all of the big runs have come from that side.  I saw Denney in for Schobel a couple of times too.

 

LBs at fault too?  Can it be fixed with the personnel we have? If we can't stop the run, I can't see too many more wins coming...

477799[/snapback]

It's the fact that Williams doesn't take up two blockers since he isn't here anymore, and that Adams still like to shoot the gap. It leave the LBer's getting blocked by FB and Olinemen. If the RB can get a cut back, he is gone for huge yards. Crowell is not able to shed blocks.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I actually think it is more of a failure by a group of players to exercise the scheme properly rather than simply a problem of bad play by one player.

 

I think you see this in a big part of yesterday's run D problem not being a consistent failure to stop Martin from getting 4-7 yards on multiple plays, but them generally stopping him but givomg up 2 huge runs of 40+ yards.

 

One these plaus, Martin not only cut through the DL positions you named as though they were butter, but also LBs like Crowell were effectively stymied by a blocker, safeties like Milloy who had run stopping duty on one of the runs were ridden out of the play and did not engage at the point of attack and even a broadcaster noted that the problem on one play was Nate Clements getting sucked in so that he was not there as a safety valve to provide run support because he certainly was not doing any pass coverage on the play either.

 

How do the Bills get better?

 

In my mind it is a combination of possibilities.

 

The best teams on D (which the Bills have claimed to be) simply perform well as a team every single play. The Bills players do their part and play their role on almost all plays, but giving up runs of 40+ a couple of times a game is not acceptable and the players simply need to perform better. My sense is that the individuals really are trying to do too much and when multiple players do this on the same play they get burned. The culprits in terms of their particular game are in my mind:

 

1. Crowell is getting better as he gets more experience, but Spikes provides big shoes to fill. If he uses the INT he got yesterday to increase his calmness and consistency this will work better, but if he plays off of it and Gray emphasizes making big plays he will do this from time to time, but we will also get burned from time to time. Oddly enough I think if he is more Posey like we will perform better.

 

2. Clements is a great player but i think is a little to addicted to the headlines as he is in his contract year. If I were him I do not resign with the Bills until after the season anyway at all because he will get a bigger contract than the Bills can give him under the salary cap right now so simply signing him is not a realistic answer. However, he needs to play within himself a bit and we would be more effective.

 

3. Milloy I think is the difficult problem to solve here because I think his decline is simply due to him getting older so I think there is little choice here but to tough it out and hope for the best. I do not see his back-up Wire stepping up here so ultimately we are going to need a better player. As Milloy is older and thus subjet to more frequent nicks and missed games I'd keep an eye on the waiver wire for Milloy's heir apparent here and work Leonhard in practice to make the switch in his play from FS to SS.

 

Overall, Gray needs to really ask himself if out high-risk scheme is the best thing for the players we got. I do not see us changing at this point in the season but our players may simply not be good enough (particularly after the loss of Spikes) to operate effectively in as diverse a scheme as we have. The good news is that the saving grace may actually be improved effectivenness by the DL because this will actually serve to take pressure off the LBs and run support pressure off the DBs. The monster play f Sam Adams and the Denney sacks yesterday were a great sign.

[Gavin in Va Beach]

Where is Sape? Surely he can't be worse than the Anderson-Bannan combo and should get some chances on the field...

[RkFast]

Whats the problem? You could probably start with Williams being gone and Edwards onm the shelf.

 

And FFS...if youre looking to your secondary to correct problems with run defense, youve got HUGE issues that go beyiond that position.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Whats the problem? You could probably start with Williams being gone and Edwards onm the shelf.

 

And FFS...if youre looking to your secondary to correct problems with run defense, youve got HUGE issues that go beyiond that position.

477866[/snapback]

 

Exactly. We've got huge issues which go beyond position.

 

I think part of the Bills problem this year is that opponents have 2 years of film on our run-blitz scheme and after some experience with it they can see how to exploit it. I think the run-blitz as designed by LeBeau and run by Gray was incredibly effective as opponents could not figure out what we were going to do on a particular play. However, Pitts and LeBeau provided a road map last year on how to evoke specific responses from the Bills D based on their reacting to exploit what the opponent is giving them and then how to take advanatage of that Bills response to rip on us.

 

Its hard for us mere mortals to even figure out what the heck the Bills are doing with this D (our traditional 4-3 and even 3-4 labels do not seem to apply) but all signs point to opponents having figured this out or at least what plays work against it and we have problems.

 

I think a couple of critical points are coming up:

 

1. NE and BB will get us after their bye week and I do not look forward at all to seeing how they attack us with an extra week to plan. Gray may well want to change up out approach to run D entirely in week 8 because quite frankly we can't do much worse if a series of good runners from Caddilac to Martin are going to rip us up anyway.

 

2. I own bye week the next week provides us with an opportunity or gray to remake out run D. He has proved to be a strategic master making great adjustments at half time last year and using the bye week effectively.

 

Doing this again th im prove a bad run D rather than simply to perfect a good product is going to be quite the challenge.

[MDH]

And FFS...if youre looking to your secondary to correct problems with run defense, youve got HUGE issues that go beyiond that position.

477866[/snapback]

 

Looking for the secondary to limit long runs (which has been the Bills achilles heel this year) isn't asking for much. Milloy needs to play more disciplined in his run support. Every team is going to break off 10-yard runs here and there, that's not a big deal. But Milloy not being in position to prevent 25+ yard runs is a huge deal. That in combination with some missed tackles (which I'll attribute to the cast) and I'll say that Milloy is far from impressing me this year.

[bills_fan]

I think the announcers said it best during the game...last year we had Phat Pat, who was replaced by Edwards, now both are gone. We are suffering from a lack of talent at that slot. We're not going to be able to correct that until the offseason. Too bad the Colts got Corey Simon....

 

That said, it wasn't too bad yesterday. Martin got 90 yards on 2 carries. The Bills were heavy in blitz mode to get to Vinny, which was absolutely the right D. So, Martin burned us a couple of times. It happens. There's a reason he's the 4th leading rusher in NFL history. The alternative would have been to curtail the blitzes & Vinny would have had more time. I don't think that would have been the right call. I'm actually quite encouraged by our run D overall, yesterday.

[Dan Gross]

I think the announcers said it best during the game...last year we had Phat Pat, who was replaced by Edwards, now both are gone.  We are suffering from a lack of talent at that slot.  We're not going to be able to correct that until the offseason.  Too bad the Colts got Corey Simon....

 

That said, it wasn't too bad yesterday.  Martin got 90 yards on 2 carries.  The Bills were heavy in blitz mode to get to Vinny, which was absolutely the right D.  So, Martin burned us a couple of times.  It happens.  There's a reason he's the 4th leading rusher in NFL history.  The alternative would have been to curtail the blitzes & Vinny would have had more time.  I don't think that would have been the right call.  I'm actually quite encouraged by our run D overall, yesterday.

477910[/snapback]

 

After those two plays the Jets got 1.) 2 yards and a field goal and 2.) intercepted on the next play. They got burned but limited the damage.

[BuckeyeBill]

The Bills sorely miss PW and Ron Edwards... well, he WAS supposed to take his spot.

 

As of right now the Bills have a HUGE hole on the defensive line, and good running backs (like we have played a lot this year) will burst through them.

 

I hope the dominant pass defense (easily #1 in the league) will be able to make up for the sorry defensive line.

 

It doesn't hurt that Spikes is hurt too.

[Typical TBD Guy]

The problems are, IMHO:

 

A. The loss of Pat Williams, with Edwards and now Anderson not being good replacements.

B. Schobel being an overrated football player who isn't and never will be good against the run.

C. The loss of Takeo Spikes, which our D system relied (too) heavily on.

D. Our LB's having a serious case of Arrington-itis this season by not sticking to their gap assignments....maybe Posey and Fletcher are trying to both live up to some ridiculous 85 Bears D standard and overcompensate for TKO's absence??

E. Milloy being an uncharacteristically bad tackler and also being out of position an unusual number of times...I can't explain this one...maybe age taking a toll?

F. Jerry Gray's mediocrity and stubbornness as a DC; we need someone who has more of a Bellysick-like ability to alter an original game plan to fit new circumstances and situations....JG doesn't, and that is why I could care less if he leaves for a head coaching job (which will only be in the college ranks, at this pace).

[34-78-83]

The problems are, IMHO:

 

A. The loss of Pat Williams, with Edwards and now Anderson not being good replacements.

B. Schobel being an overrated football player who isn't and never will be good against the run.

C. The loss of Takeo Spikes, which our D system relied (too) heavily on.

D. Our LB's having a serious case of Arrington-itis this season by not sticking to their gap assignments....maybe Posey and Fletcher are trying to both live up to some ridiculous 85 Bears D standard and overcompensate for TKO's absence??

E. Milloy being an uncharacteristically bad tackler and also being out of position an unusual number of times...I can't explain this one...maybe age taking a toll?

F. Jerry Gray's mediocrity and stubbornness as a DC; we need someone who has more of a Bellysick-like ability to alter an original game plan to fit new circumstances and situations....JG doesn't, and that is why I could care less if he leaves for a head coaching job (which will only be in the college ranks, at this pace).

477919[/snapback]

 

I'd disagree strongly with B., and F. wasn't an issue it seems until this season. Other than that I agree.

[GG]

After those two plays the Jets got  1.) 2 yards and a field goal and 2.) intercepted on the next play.  They got burned but limited the damage.

477912[/snapback]

 

 

Walt Corey, is that you?

[Dan Gross]

Walt Corey, is that you?

477939[/snapback]

 

Just tackle the guy with the ball.

 

Seriously, for all their warts they are still 6th in points per game allowed.

[BB2004]

I think the announcers said it best during the game...last year we had Phat Pat, who was replaced by Edwards, now both are gone.  We are suffering from a lack of talent at that slot.  We're not going to be able to correct that until the offseason.  Too bad the Colts got Corey Simon....

 

That said, it wasn't too bad yesterday.  Martin got 90 yards on 2 carries.  The Bills were heavy in blitz mode to get to Vinny, which was absolutely the right D.  So, Martin burned us a couple of times.  It happens.  There's a reason he's the 4th leading rusher in NFL history.  The alternative would have been to curtail the blitzes & Vinny would have had more time.  I don't think that would have been the right call.  I'm actually quite encouraged by our run D overall, yesterday.

477910[/snapback]

 

Signing someone in the meantime for the year could be an option. The question is, who's available?

[Guest BackInDaDay]

Looking for the secondary to limit long runs (which has been the Bills achilles heel this year) isn't asking for much.  Milloy needs to play more disciplined in his run support.  Every team is going to break off 10-yard runs here and there, that's not a big deal.  But Milloy not being in position to prevent 25+ yard runs is a huge deal.  That in combination with some missed tackles (which I'll attribute to the cast) and I'll say that Milloy is far from impressing me this year.

477907[/snapback]

 

In defense of Milloy, if the gameplan (in this simplistic example) was to bring pressure on an immobile QB while shutting down his 'fire' routes with the CBs and FS, then Milloy has more field to cover and is set deeper. Maybe you can confirm (or reject) this hypothesis with what you saw,, I didn't see the game.

 

In any case, he must have 'reads' that bring him upfield in run-support, and either they're inconsistant (Gray's fault) or he's not making them (Milloy's fault). Either way, if coach Gray wants to gameplan another immobile QB (Kerry Collins) the way he did Testaverde, they have to improve his production.

[Typical TBD Guy]

I'd disagree strongly with B.,  and F. wasn't an issue it seems until this season. Other than that I agree.

477933[/snapback]

 

That's fine, but I say Schobel is overrated because his sacks always tend to come in groups only against truly inferior competition. This year alone, he hasn't recorded a sack outside the Houston game. And Schobel has always been a turnstile in the run game since his rookie year. It's only when we signed Sam Adams, Posey, Spikes, and Milloy in 2003 that it became a non-issue. This year, though, I'm starting to notice again a lot of big runs coming off of his and Tim Anderson's side of the line.

 

And regarding Gray, I still believe that the excellence of our D since 2003 has been largely a result of the talent we obtained and not because of any particular genius on Gray's part. Gray is a generally competent DC, but a mediocre one who can't adjust schemes like the big boys can, i.e. the teams in the NFL that routinely make the playoffs and beyond. So while we could always do a lot worse than Gray, I also think we wouldn't have to search very long to find a replacement whenever the time comes that JG decides to move on to new things.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

The problems are, IMHO:

 

A. The loss of Pat Williams, with Edwards and now Anderson not being good replacements.

B. Schobel being an overrated football player who isn't and never will be good against the run.

C. The loss of Takeo Spikes, which our D system relied (too) heavily on.

D. Our LB's having a serious case of Arrington-itis this season by not sticking to their gap assignments....maybe Posey and Fletcher are trying to both live up to some ridiculous 85 Bears D standard and overcompensate for TKO's absence??

E. Milloy being an uncharacteristically bad tackler and also being out of position an unusual number of times...I can't explain this one...maybe age taking a toll?

F. Jerry Gray's mediocrity and stubbornness as a DC; we need someone who has more of a Bellysick-like ability to alter an original game plan to fit new circumstances and situations....JG doesn't, and that is why I could care less if he leaves for a head coaching job (which will only be in the college ranks, at this pace).

477919[/snapback]

 

Not so fast wih the conclusions you draw I'm afraid. Not only do some of them not line up with the facts and events of this season and the past two

 

(A hallmark of Gray's game last year was his ability to diagnose early problems, design a change and implement the switch effectively and quickly last year as overall their 3rd quarter D production last year was huge and in examples like last year's Miami game where Morris ran all over us in the first half and they shut him down in the second half was merely one clear example of Gray making a big switch last year this year the switches work in the 3rd but we get overwhelmed in the 4th quarter- in addition the run D sucked both with and without Spikes),

 

but also the key here does not appear to be geared to one player being bad, but the team failing as a unit on big plays.

 

I'd say he key here is not found in episodic diagnosis but opponents having figured out how wo exploit the zone blitz unless we do everything well. It just ain't simple and I for one am still trying to figure this out and I know less than gray )or LeBeau have forgotten about how to make this work.

 

Overall, my reaction to your thought are:

 

A. The loss of Pat Williams- PW would have been great to keep at an affordable salary, but not worth the full time freight this part time player (he took less than 2/3 of the D snaps last year) got to play D in the failed MN D. How do you explain the Bills D being quite effective in the 1/3 plus plays (far more than him simply sitting out thrid downs) he was not on the field last year if his prescence was so essential. PW is good but no world-beater.

 

B. Schobel being an overrated football- I agree that Schoble has lacked strength at the POA and thus against the run, but this is why he is utilized in the zone blitz so much by us in short zone and even man-to-man pass coverage. Maybewe need a new scheme, but his is not the run problem because we do not use him thi way.

 

C. The loss of Takeo Spikes- as i said this is a problem but if we play well as a team we can deal with this instead we are simply being embarassed.

.

D. Our LB's having a serious case of Arrington-itis- I agree thety are trying to do too much an make too many plays and this is part of our problem. It is a true irony that I think if they dialed it back a notch they would be more effective.

 

 

E. Milloy his one...maybe age taking a toll?- I think it is age.

 

F. Jerry Gray's mediocrity and stubbornness as a DC- I think you are wrong on this one, the surprise to me has actually been that Gray had proved to be a superior strategy guy and not merely a tactician after LeBeau left. His willingness to change was actually a big part of our success the last two years. I think this years problems have not been because of rigidity but because if anything he is beingtioo clever by half and the team is trying to do too much. If anything like last year;s O which improved when they took away Bledsoe's ability to audible and simplified things, I think that our run D might profit from simplifying a little bit.

[MDH]

In defense of Milloy, if the gameplan (in this simplistic example) was to bring pressure on an immobile QB while shutting down his 'fire' routes with the CBs and FS, then Milloy has more field to cover and is set deeper.  Maybe you can confirm (or reject) this hypothesis with what you saw,, I didn't see the game. 

 

Milloy was set near the LoS most of the day, he wasn't set deep that often.

 

In any case, he must have 'reads' that bring him upfield in run-support, and either they're inconsistant (Gray's fault) or he's not making them (Milloy's fault).  Either way, if coach Gray wants to gameplan another immobile QB (Kerry Collins) the way he did Testaverde, they have to improve his production.

477964[/snapback]

 

I can't speak to the second long run by Martin (I stepped out at halftime and didn't get back until just before the INT), but on the first long run Milloy was in the proper position to make the play until the last moment. Instead of playing it conservatively and making a tackle 4-5 yards past the LoS he shot through a gap where he thought Martin was going to go, got walled off by an offensive lineman engaged with a DL and wasn't in position to make the tackle. Consequently Martin took off down field.

 

That's the main problem I see in general with this run D. The players are losing containment in the attempt to make a big play (see Sam Adams). When it works the D looks great. When it doesn't big plays often result. Obviously, this is the type of D the Bills prefer to play. Go for broke and hope the offense doesn't burn you. However, the last guy I want to consistently be out of position on D is the SS. Milloy needs to rein it in a little bit.

[BuffOrange]

The problems are, IMHO:

 

A. The loss of Pat Williams, with Edwards and now Anderson not being good replacements.

B. Schobel being an overrated football player who isn't and never will be good against the run.

C. The loss of Takeo Spikes, which our D system relied (too) heavily on.

D. Our LB's having a serious case of Arrington-itis this season by not sticking to their gap assignments....maybe Posey and Fletcher are trying to both live up to some ridiculous 85 Bears D standard and overcompensate for TKO's absence??

E. Milloy being an uncharacteristically bad tackler and also being out of position an unusual number of times...I can't explain this one...maybe age taking a toll?

F. Jerry Gray's mediocrity and stubbornness as a DC; we need someone who has more of a Bellysick-like ability to alter an original game plan to fit new circumstances and situations....JG doesn't, and that is why I could care less if he leaves for a head coaching job (which will only be in the college ranks, at this pace).

477919[/snapback]

 

Great job Kelso. I agree completely. I love Milloy but yeah this year he has been tackling like, well....Mark Kelso.

Can somebody give me the short version of FFS's rebuttal?