stevestojan Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 33 seems REALLY low for an over under, and there's a reason for that. There's NO WAY the total hits 33 and the books know it. My 10,000,000 star lock of the week is the UNDER for the Bills Jets. Any one else have any bets they think are locks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 I had a nice 4-0 day last week hitting the Bills, Jets, Cowboys & Jags. 4-1 picking Bills games this year, don't like this week's game at all because the 3 pt spread is right on IMO. There are a few other 3 pt spreads in favor of the home team this week that I kinda like. Pittsburgh -3 vs. Jacksonville - even with Tommy Maddox, I don't think the Jags are as good on neutral field, so a little surprised to see the line so low. The Jags run D ranks surprisingly at the bottom despite their great DT tandem. Dallas -3.5 vs. NYG - This Giants team is grossly overrated IMO because they have a few good fantasy players and they've played more crappy teams at home (3) than anybody in the league. If you're a trenches guy, the Cowboys are better on both sides of the line. Also I think the letdown effect for Dallas will be minimal because of the Parcells factor and they should be motivated enough after getting swept by the Giants last year. NE +3 @ Denver - Hard to knock Denver because they have more quality wins than anybody so far this year - but NE is just a better football team. Jake Plummer is also due for a Jake Plummer sort of game. SD -2 @ Oakland - Looks like a trap game, but the Black Hole is just a grossly overrated advantage as the Raiders pretty much suck in these home division games year after year. The bad news is that the general public seems to agree with me on most of these games, unlike last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted October 15, 2005 Author Share Posted October 15, 2005 I had a nice 4-0 day last week hitting the Bills, Jets, Cowboys & Jags. 4-1 picking Bills games this year, don't like this week's game at all because the 3 pt spread is right on IMO. There are a few other 3 pt spreads in favor of the home team this week that I kinda like. Pittsburgh -3 vs. Jacksonville - even with Tommy Maddox, I don't think the Jags are as good on neutral field, so a little surprised to see the line so low. The Jags run D ranks surprisingly at the bottom despite their great DT tandem. Dallas -3.5 vs. NYG - This Giants team is grossly overrated IMO because they have a few good fantasy players and they've played more crappy teams at home (3) than anybody in the league. If you're a trenches guy, the Cowboys are better on both sides of the line. Also I think the letdown effect for Dallas will be minimal because of the Parcells factor and they should be motivated enough after getting swept by the Giants last year. NE +3 @ Denver - Hard to knock Denver because they have more quality wins than anybody so far this year - but NE is just a better football team. Jake Plummer is also due for a Jake Plummer sort of game. SD -2 @ Oakland - Looks like a trap game, but the Black Hole is just a grossly overrated advantage as the Raiders pretty much suck in these home division games year after year. The bad news is that the general public seems to agree with me on most of these games, unlike last week. 476364[/snapback] Been trying to figure out why SD is only a 2 point favorite, and i just can't. I can't figure out why they aren't giving at least 4, and I would have thought 5. For that reason alone, I'm not touching that game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kipers Hair Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 I think this might be a classic sucker bet and the over will take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Been trying to figure out why SD is only a 2 point favorite, and i just can't. I can't figure out why they aren't giving at least 4, and I would have thought 5. For that reason alone, I'm not touching that game. 476374[/snapback] SD off a short week and Oakland off a bye I think has something to do with it. I think Atlanta -5 @ Saints may be the most popular "Wow Easy $!" game this week where everyone loses money. I personally have a rule about never betting on or against the Saints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenchBledsoe Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 33 seems REALLY low for an over under, and there's a reason for that. There's NO WAY the total hits 33 and the books know it. My 10,000,000 star lock of the week is the UNDER for the Bills Jets. Any one else have any bets they think are locks? 476353[/snapback] Under 33? Really? You mean you don't think Holcomb and Vinny are going to light it up this week? Hmmm. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 33 seems REALLY low for an over under, and there's a reason for that. There's NO WAY the total hits 33 and the books know it. My 10,000,000 star lock of the week is the UNDER for the Bills Jets. Any one else have any bets they think are locks? 476353[/snapback] There's going to be a 20-30 mile an hour wind tomorrow. The football does funny things in the wind. I could see a couple of touchdowns on interceptions in those kind of conditions. Also, I know that our special teams are due for taking one to the house. I wouldn't bet the farm on the under is what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stussy109 Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 33 seems REALLY low for an over under, and there's a reason for that. There's NO WAY the total hits 33 and the books know it. My 10,000,000 star lock of the week is the UNDER for the Bills Jets. Any one else have any bets they think are locks? 476353[/snapback] The over on the Bills/Jets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBTG81 Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 33 seems REALLY low for an over under, and there's a reason for that. There's NO WAY the total hits 33 and the books know it. My 10,000,000 star lock of the week is the UNDER for the Bills Jets. Any one else have any bets they think are locks? 476353[/snapback] Good job there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stussy109 Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 The over on the Bills/Jets 476606[/snapback] LOCKKKKKKKKKKKKK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark VI Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 If you were any dumber, you'd fossilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 Does Geico offer bet insurance, steve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 Doh - another disappearing act by the Dallas D in the final minute costs me a .500 week. That and Tommy Maddox. At least the Chargers sucker bet paid off and I didn't fall for the Atlanta/Carolina/Cleveland traps that everybody liked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 33 seems REALLY low for an over under, and there's a reason for that. There's NO WAY the total hits 33 and the books know it. My 10,000,000 star lock of the week is the UNDER for the Bills Jets. Any one else have any bets they think are locks? 476353[/snapback] ouch, actually you could argue they made it that low cause the public sees what they percieve as two bad quarterbacks and two good defenses, but when both teams can run points usually hit the scoreboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 Doh - another disappearing act by the Dallas D in the final minute costs me a .500 week. That and Tommy Maddox.At least the Chargers sucker bet paid off and I didn't fall for the Atlanta/Carolina/Cleveland traps that everybody liked. 477285[/snapback] carolina covered if you bet them at +1 or pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jarthur31 Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 33 seems REALLY low for an over under, and there's a reason for that. There's NO WAY the total hits 33 and the books know it. My 10,000,000 star lock of the week is the UNDER for the Bills Jets. Any one else have any bets they think are locks? 476353[/snapback] FLMAO! Did you bet the under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 carolina covered if you bet them at +1 or pick 477409[/snapback] I guess. They opened at -1 and closed at -2 or 3 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 I guess. They opened at -1 and closed at -2 or 3 I think. 477434[/snapback] [/quote i pushed.....i was kicking myself..........i saw they were the number one choice in the hilton contest on saturday morning and i liked them all week.....figured it would move being as soon as that contests selections are released alot of people would follow.........i bet it too late saturday at -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan_in_raleigh Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 33 seems REALLY low for an over under, and there's a reason for that. There's NO WAY the total hits 33 and the books know it. My 10,000,000 star lock of the week is the UNDER for the Bills Jets. Any one else have any bets they think are locks? 476353[/snapback] Hope ya didnt mortgage the house on that Bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 Hope ya didnt mortgage the house on that Bet 477451[/snapback] No. But good thing he saves on auto insurance to pay off his bookies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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