The Buffalo Bill's Guide to Talent Abuse

[John from Riverside]

this is a great post, but i do think there's one error in your logic.  pitt is an incredibly efficient passing team, and the bills aren't. i know you might conclude that this only proves your point, but what actually happens is that the bills offense ends up digging itself into a hole. because you can't simply rush the entire length of the field and expect to score in the nfl, you've got to be able to pass the ball effectively, to mix it up. the bills can't pass effectively, which puts them in a hole score wise. they then do what every team in the history of the nfl has done -- start passing. they do it a little too early for my liking, but all the same the reason they pass as much as they do is because they're so ineffective at it. you have to able to move the ball through the air. if you can't, you're simply not going to score. pitt throws less percentage wise partly because of philosophy but partly because they've got a qb who completes close to 70% of his passes and averages 8-10 yards per attempt. the bills have a guy who averages less than 50% and is south of 5 yards per attempt.  again, i know it sounds counterintuitive, but they have to keep trying. a bad passing game cannot win you games in the nfl. just ask the ravens, a team that for the past few years has been sound everywhere except in the passing game.

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Dave.....what I would say about the passing efficiency is.....it is a heck of a lot easier to be efficient when you are forcing other teams to play run.

 

I furthermore point out that it looks to me that JPL is so horribly inaccurate because he doesn't want to throw the pick....maybe if we didn't have so many defenders back in coverage he might improve his accuracy.

[John from Riverside]

agreed, but the other thing is that roethlisberger is good, highly accurate and throws to good receivers. plus he's been that way pretty much since day one.  the bills have pretty good receivers too, but the qb can't deliver.  he did in the first half against the texans and in a couple of other spots, but it's been downhill since then.  i guess it's a chicken-egg thing, but all the same the qb has to produce better than he has been producing. whether that will happen is anyone's guess. it's still too early to tell. fwiw, the bills pretty ran the system you prefer last year -- they ran it 470 (i'm including a guesstimate of legit qb rushes, including kneel downs, plus 12 WR runs) times and passed it roughly 310 times (i'm factoring in the 38 sacks into this and the qb rushes minus 15 planned qb rushing plays [kneel downs, sneaks]). 

 

by my calculations, they ran it 60.3% of the time last year, which had to be one was one of the highest percentages in the league. i mean, that's really high, considering that most teams, i think, throw more than they run.  so it's not as if this is a pass first coaching staff.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf2004.htm

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Actually....I thought we WERE going to run last years offense......but hey...who am I?

[Nanker]

A busted flea flicker, no less. 

463767[/snapback]

 

I'm beginning to think I'm somewhat lucky that I haven't been able to see any of the games yet this year.

[Astrobot]

Post of the Year, AKC.

Props to You.

 

I was impressed with your research about Willis having the least carries of the top 7 RB's, and the possibility that he'd be higher given the fact that most RB's get a lot of reps late in the game. I guess we punt.

[finknottle]

History makes a far better argument for the opposite. While we've had a contemporary champion in the Rams who used the pass to set up the rest of their offense, it's difficult to point to one other non-West Coast O champion who didn't use a running offense and line to set up their passing games.

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See new thread. Almost all winning teams so far this year gain dispoportionatly many of their passing yards early in the game, while their running yards are more evenly distributed.

 

If you want a simple example, the Eagles have passed for 329 yards in the first quarter whereas Westbrook has only 15 first quarter yards.

 

Even Pittsburgh has gained more than 4 times as many 1q yards in the air than on the ground, with the passing yards dropping and the rushing yards doubling in successive quarters.

[RuntheDamnBall]

agreed, but the other thing is that roethlisberger is good, highly accurate and throws to good receivers. plus he's been that way pretty much since day one.  the bills have pretty good receivers too,

Don't underestimate the blocking of the Pitt receivers. Makes a big difference.

[AKC]

I agree with all of that - 100% - but "some speed" is incongruous with investing the last two years first two rounds exclusively on the QB/WR position. In today's NFL (including the implicit cap commitment that comes with making first and second round selections), that is an enormous expenditure of resources in one area.

 

I just don't then agree with the conclusion that it's all on the coaches and Donahoe is off the hook (while accepting the thought that the coaches would be better off committing to the run in these games). Too much of the money and draft picks available to go into this inside out power running offense has gone to the outside to say that Donahoe has given Mularkey and company exactly what they need to implement this power running game.

 

Chargers are a good example - they are a run first team and because they run (extremely) well with LT and that line they can pass very effectively, but look at how they acquired their receivers. McCardell came for a 3rd and 6th round pick, Caldwell was a second round pick, and Gates and Parker were UDFA's. VERY different from the Donahoe track record/strategy.

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I'm not sure where and how a team finds its talent and then "grading" it on it's draft/contract value would be a formula you could use to identify a team's strategy on either side of the ball, in fact I'd be more inclined to think that if we took the raw position data- the way players are acquired and how much they're paid- that it would it would be very indicative of what team that raw data came from or even what type of team was being built knowing that raw data. I assume things are more random, for instance the Chargers have a larger expenditure than we do at CB because TD has had success with lower round corners, yet he has not done well with lower round WRs and hence we're spending higher picks on the position.

 

My reference to Donahoe's job being done is simply that at this point in the season you assume you're playing with the roster you've got signed up. It's now the coaches job to use that talent to the absolute maximum you can- and therein is my current gripe- I believe the coaching staff is failing to do that. They've failed to give us the best chance to win because they've got players in the wrong packages or players on the field who diminish the potential of other packages so much so that we should be looking at alternative schemes- basically I'm saying that on most of our plays there are players on the bench who should be on the field and visa versa. And if a team does that too much it'll be awful- and right now we're awful.

 

Will Roscoe Parrish be the MVP of the NFL in 2008? I have no idea- taking a slot guy at #2 is pretty easy to make an argument against, but if he turns out to be a major contributor in the offense and on ST he might go far in justifying that 2.

 

What'll make me happy is seeing an opening in Miami that forces them to bring 8 guys to the scrim, 8 guys on their heels. Once a defense is playing that way the ability to breath a little on some single-covered outs can make a QB REAL comfortable, especially a guy who can roll. And once Losman finds something he can do effectively we can begin to become a team that might just take advantage of the dramatic decline of the teams in our division.

[MDH]

Even Pittsburgh has gained more than 4 times as many 1q yards in the air than on the ground,  with the passing yards dropping and the rushing yards doubling in successive quarters.

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I'm not going to bother looking it up the stats by quarter, but find the halftime stats are easy enough to find.

 

Pittsburgh Rushing Yards:

 

Week 1

1st Half - 71yds

2nd Half - 135yds

 

Week 2

1st Half - 73yds

2nd Half - 62yds

 

Week 3

1st Half - 53yds

2nd Half - 26yds

 

Somehow the above stats don't look to me like the rushing yards are "doubling in successive quarters". In fact, in 2 of the 3 games Pitt has played they've run for more first half yards than they did in the second half.

 

As for your yardage stats, of course teams are going to get more yards out of the passing game than the running game, that doesn't "prove" that the pass sets up the run. Let's look at Pittsburghs rushing attempts vs. passing attempts in the first half of games:

 

Week 1

Rushes - 16

Pass Att - 9

 

Week 2

Rushes - 16

Pass Att - 15

 

Week 3

Rushes - 14

Pass Att - 10

 

Pittsburgh appears to run quite often in the first half, despite your claims to the contrary. Through three games Pitt has rushed 46 times in the first half compared to 34 passing attempts. Yeah, that sounds like the pass setting up the run to me...

[tbonehawaii]

But only if the team recognizes their unbelievable misuse of talent.

 

It is no surprise that on only one more series in the game following our successful opening drive did we run more frequently than we passed. Otherwise, this coaching staff did what they’ve done all year- they’ve blatantly ignored the talent on the team to instead try to force their own offensive and defensive concepts on the roster.

 

The problem, of course, is that the offensive and defense they want to run don’t fit the talent we have. And make no mistake, we have some very good talent on this roster.

 

We’ve assembled a good run blocking offensive line that has played so well Willis McGahee has rushed for more yards than all but 6 other backs in the league. Even though we have an obvious and measurable strength giving the ball to our feature back, Willis has less carries than any of those backs in front of him in yardage.  With less carries and less chances to tear off a big run (something he hasn’t done yet this season) he’s still averaging 4.8 yards a carry.

 

We have thrown more passes this season than we have handed the ball to our running backs.

 

Instead of running more we’re insisting on putting the games in the hands of the least experienced player on our offense. Instead of forcing our will in the run game and using the strength of our very good run blocking offensive line, our coaches have put a very unfortunate and inexperienced kid behind a line being asked to pass protect on most downs while pass protection is their obvious weakness. Add a nervous “rookie” QB and there’s simply one outcome any objective student of this game would predict- a disaster.

 

Those crazy Steelers? They rush more than 3 times for every 2 passes they let their young QB throw. In another Pitt reference, how can the mobile QB be on the bench for a 4th and inches play with the game on the line? Was Mularkey sleeping during the Slash years?

 

And that’s just on offense.

 

So we finally got to see Anderson play with the starting defense, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the team clearly has blown it all season using Ron Edwards and having his butt knocked everywhere but into his gap on running downs. Anderson needs some work but he plays with a run stopper's base- he gets his feet set wide and he holds his position with infinitely greater frequency than Edwards. If not for the inept offensive performance yesterday our Rush D would have given up no more than 75 or 80 yards to Deuce McAllister. They fell apart on the last series but to their credit they’d played over 30 minutes of defense at that time and considering we have garbage for depth at the DT spot, the final breakdown shouldn’t have come as any shock.

 

The bottom line is that we built a ball control running offense and our coaches refuse to commit to it EVEN WHEN WE’RE KILLING OUR OPPONENT.

 

Defensively we’ve been using a part time pass rushing DT in our first down rushing package while someone more capable of run stuffing has been polishing pine.

 

In one case an injury is forcing the team to correct their own misuse of defensive talent- on the other side of the ball we can only hope that someone on this team takes the oars back from the decision maker responsible for this offensive folly and we move towards the Pitt model our staff came from- run the ball 3.2 times for every 2 pass plays. It's that simple.

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You are so damn right. It drives me nuts that these guys insist on throwing on first down! They think that they have to out trick the other side every play instead of just playing. Its really irritating. McGahee could be leading the league if we just gave him the damn ball (now I sound like Keyshawn).

[tbonehawaii]

agreed, but the other thing is that roethlisberger is good, highly accurate and throws to good receivers. plus he's been that way pretty much since day one.  the bills have pretty good receivers too, but the qb can't deliver.  he did in the first half against the texans and in a couple of other spots, but it's been downhill since then.  i guess it's a chicken-egg thing, but all the same the qb has to produce better than he has been producing. whether that will happen is anyone's guess. it's still too early to tell. fwiw, the bills pretty ran the system you prefer last year -- they ran it 470 (i'm including a guesstimate of legit qb rushes, including kneel downs, plus 12 WR runs) times and passed it roughly 310 times (i'm factoring in the 38 sacks into this and the qb rushes minus 15 planned qb rushing plays [kneel downs, sneaks]). 

 

by my calculations, they ran it 60.3% of the time last year, which had to be one was one of the highest percentages in the league. i mean, that's really high, considering that most teams, i think, throw more than they run.  so it's not as if this is a pass first coaching staff.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf2004.htm

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no they didn't run 60% of the time, him tucking and running on a pass play counts as a run even when the play being called is a pass. these gusy have no pateince.look atteh saints. they could not run early but stuck with it and wound up witha ton of yards...RUN THE F-------ING BALL CLEMENTS!

[AKC]

I furthermore point out that it looks to me that JPL is so horribly inaccurate because he doesn't want to throw the pick....maybe if we didn't have so many defenders back in coverage he might improve his accuracy.

463911[/snapback]

 

At this point he's proving that mobility is no cure for defensive pressure. He's so damn nervous that he rarely if ever looks off his primary receiver. And when he pulls it down he commits 100% to the run.

 

I was watching some clips from the Eagle/Chiefs game. McNabb is flushed on a play and he takes off to his left, looking totally as if he's commiting to run- and yet when he sees a receiver open 3 or 4 steps into it he dumps the ball and lets his receiver pick up 15 yards and take the hit at the end of the play. A totally veteran play.

 

We can only hope that JP's field vision starts to improve soon, and it sure does seem that history proves that running the ball is the single best way to slow down the game for your QB. The QB we've got on the field needs desperately for the game to slow down some so he can gain the experience playing the QB position the right way instead of playing with fear as he is right now. He'll learn nothing playing with fear, and we'll win scant few games with him running scared.

[obie_wan]

Dave.....what I would say about the passing efficiency is.....it is a heck of a lot easier to be efficient when you are forcing other teams to play run.

 

I furthermore point out that it looks to me that JPL is so horribly inaccurate because he doesn't want to throw the pick....maybe if we didn't have so many defenders back in coverage he might improve his accuracy.

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JP has been rendered useless due to the overriding directive to not turn the ball over.

 

He is hesitant to throw the ball on the WR break because of fear of a pick.

 

If he's not ready, he should not play at all.

 

However, if he remotely ready, they should turn him loose and run a real offense.

 

The coaches are being way too conservative in their playcalling to protect JP- but they are just making it harder by telegraphing the plays to the defense.

 

Also - running the ball and then throwing off of playaction would also help.

[dave mcbride]

464185[/snapback]

you may want to read my post again. i was talking about last year, and my stats are correct.