looking ahead - the next 3 weeks

[dave mcbride]

it's a tough road for the bills, but they may end up 3-3 and in the thick of it after week 6.

 

i don't think they match up well against NO, and I expect them to lose, which will put them at 1-3. After that, they face miami at home, which is the true test. miami will be coming off a bye, and they're obviously a lot better than people expected. plus they can run the ball, which will present problems for the bills. that's a 50-50 proposition. the bills then get the jets at home, a game i expect they'll win. they match up pretty well against the jets, beating them pretty convincingly last year at home (even if it wasn't reflected on the scoreboard). the jets appear to have no credible qbs now that pennington and fiedler are hurt, and the word is that they're either going to sign up a fossil (vinnie, jeff george) or make a trade with Pittsburgh.

 

in the meantime, miami plays at Tampa in week 6. they'll probably lose that game. assuming the bills can win the miami game, that puts miami at 2-3.

 

NE unfortunately won a game yesterday that I really hoped they'd lose, but they do have 3 very tough upcoming games plus some major injuries to deal with (harrison and light are apparently out for the year). they have SD at home next week and then go onto the road to face atlanta and denver. they could easily be 3-3 after week 6, and i can't see them being better than 4-2.

 

the jets are in bad shape. they face a desperate baltimore team on the road next week that is coming off a bye, then face tampa at home before going to buffalo. I could easily see them at 1-5 after week 6; the best they'll be is 2-4.

 

so, it's entirely conceivable that the bills will be 3-3 and tied for first after week 6, but holding the tiebreaker because they'll be 3-0 in the AFC and 2-0 in the division.

 

weeks 7 and 8 are ugly -- at oakland and at NE. i'm not ready to think about those games yet. after week 8, they get a bye.

 

the second half schedule is really ugly: KC, at SD, Carolina, at miami, NE, Denver, at Cincy, at the Jets. again, though, a lot can happen rosterwise the every team between now and then, so i'll reserve judgement.

 

suffice it to say that all the afc east teams have much more difficult schedules this year.