The struggles of JP and the Buffalo offense

[Simon]

so if anybody has any sort of mental preparations to make, now might be a good time to start.

Why do I blaspheme so? Because for the second week in a row we're going to be staring into the teeth of one of the NFL's best Front4.

Yes, I can hear many of you now; "Simon you insufferable ass, keeping the ball away from DeAngelo Hall is certainly a more manageable than task than keeping it away from the likes of Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly and Derrick Brooks! And Tampa is certainly the best Front4 in the NFL, not the Falcons!"

I would not argue either of these things and agree that playing in Tampa in his second start was as nasty a task as JP is going to face for some time. But something that is less difficult can still be near impossible and I fear that is the situation we face Sunday.

When a professional defensive co-ordinator has the personell faerie wave a wand o'er his head and give him the ability to pressure the QB with just his front4, it creates one dangerous dude. Only having to rush four leaves 7 other tinkertoys to play with in coverage, which is significantly superior to 6; in addition, being able to suck up an entire passprotection scheme with just 4 guys makes your blitzes that much more effective. And while the Bucs pressure is prone to come off the edges, Atlanta is just as likely to get pressure right in the middle of the pocket with the nightmare that is Rod Coleman. All of this together is bound to make things very problematic for a green QB.

However this is some hope that we can get a couple 1stdowns by halftime.

First of all, we're at home and I think this is a tremendous boon for JP as he strikes me as a typically emotional young QB who is going to be greatly affected by road atmospheres. Not having to contend with that should allow him to focus solely on the game itself and incite him to play with a more agressive posture.

Anotehr thing worth considering is that Ed Donatel is fairly young for an NFL DCo-ordinator. So even if he's a good one, he certainly does not have the chops of Monte Kiffin and is not likely to throw nearly as much craft at Tom Clements.

Additionally, Atlanta doesn't have a 2ndcorner anywhere near the caliber of Brian Kelly. In fact I'd go so far as to say that the Bucs nickelback is better than anything the Falcons can put across from DeangleoHall, and with two good WR's that means we have ourselves a duck and Atlanta has a hole to adress that wasn't there when we played Tampa.

I also see JP's mobility being more of a factor this week than it was last week as the Bills make a concerted effort to get him out of the pocket and away from Coleman. The trouble with that will be if BigMike can't go it will be difficult to roll JP to his strength if we've got a back-up OT dealing with Pat Kearney. Maybe since Gandy should be able to handle BradySmith then the help he got against SimRice last week can be given to whoever will start at RT (who finished for MikeW last week? Please don't tell me Jerman).

Finally I envision Mike Mularkey being more directly involved with this week's gameplan and playcalling on Sunday. He used to be a qualitycontrol coach which means he's done a ton of self-scouting and should be able to help the Bills get out of the predictable ruts we saaw them in last week.

 

If Vick sits (which he would be if I was coaching the Falcons) we might be able to beat the Falcons with 17 pts. If he plays it'll take more along the lines of 23-24. Either way, with our D and ST's, all that should be asked of JP during the game is to put together a couple TD drives, protect the ball and turn a couple instances of fortunate field position into points. Can he do it? Yeah, I think he can but it's not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination.

[Zona]

I think the Bills will be fine. Will they struggle some against Atlanta? Yes. Will the Bills win this weekend? Yes.

 

I think Bills fans had better get used to JP struggling on the road. But he will play much better at home. This is how the NFL works. Even Peyton Manning struggles on the road. It's called homefield advantage. The Bucs tore us up in Tampa. So what? I remember Kelly's Bills team laying an egg in TAmpa during the SB years too. This week, we get the Falcons in Buffalo. I expect JP and the Bills to play better, and a Bills win.

 

I dont care who you play. A team must win 6 games at home, and 4 on the road to be considered a "playoff caliber team". I think the Bills can do that THIS YEAR!!!

 

Go JP! Go Bills!!!

[smokinandjokin]

I refuse to read a post which is that long telling me why the Bills won't score.

[d_wag]

i would not consider the falcons d-line "one of the NFL's best front 4"......

 

coleman is good and will get inside pressure......

 

kerney can also play, although he was completely taken out of the game last week........

 

beyond that they have issues........lavalais and babineaux are young and unproven........smith doesn't scare anyone and on top of that he might not be able to go anyway......

 

1/2 of the line looks good, the other 1/2 looks average.......doesn't make for one of the NFL's best........

[plenzmd1]

kerney can also play, although he was completely taken out of the game last week........

 

 

1/2 of the line looks good, the other 1/2 looks average.......doesn't make for one of the NFL's best........

451331[/snapback]

 

Kearney looked just horrible last week. Granted, he was playing out of position agaisn't a superior LT, but man , it looked to me like he flat out quit on about half of the plays last week.

[d_wag]

Kearney looked just horrible last week. Granted, he was playing out of position agaisn't a superior LT, but man , it looked to me like he flat out quit on about half of the plays last week.

451353[/snapback]

 

i haven't seen a LT dominate like that in a long time.......like you said, looked like he gave up in the 2nd half and resigned himself to the fact he wasn't going to get near the QB......he even came out of the game at very bad times during key drives, almost like he was afraid to face him........

[Simon]

I refuse to read a post which is that long telling me why the Bills won't score.

Yes, because anything that can't be done in 40 seconds isn't worth doing.

Check out the bottom half, you'll like it better....

 

 

smith doesn't scare anyone and on top of that he might not be able to go anyway......

Schobel and Kelsay don't scare anyone either, but they can still play and so can Smith. I didn't realized he was banged up and might sit, what's the matter with him? Losing him would hurt the falcons up front.

[d_wag]

Schobel and Kelsay don't scare anyone either, but they can still play and so can Smith. I didn't realized he was banged up and might sit, what's the matter with him? Losing him would hurt the falcons up front.

451364[/snapback]

 

this isn't about the bills d-line.......we're talking about the falcons d-line......

 

smith was inactive last week with a quadriceps injury.......he's expected to go, but who knows how long he'll be able to stay in there........again, i don't think he is anything special even at 100%.......never a big sack artist, even in his prime.......

[ARTnSocal]

I refuse to read a post which is that long telling me why the Bills won't score.

451330[/snapback]

(2) agreed, way too long

 

 

[GG]

... whoever will start at RT (who finished for MikeW last week? Please don't tell me Jerman).

 

451315[/snapback]

 

Ok, I won't tell you that it WAS Jerman.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Simon- I think you assessment is a totally legit one except that depending upon the game situation the assessment may not apply.

 

From viewing the NFL over the years one of the big differences I note is that the competition is tighter than ever before. Worst to first can not only occur like never before but also first to worst. Not only is the occuring now from season to season, but performances like the Bills where in week 1 they appeared as if they worked out some chinks in redzone production and third down conversions they might be unbeatable to the next week where it was a question whether the O would even get a 1st down (much less score) and a D which folks seriously talked about in the same breath as the 85 Bears and the Ravens could not stop the run.

 

The salary cap has made it near impossible to build and hold together a team with the talent which allowed the Bills to make 4 straight SBs (though Philly's history if near achievement is impressive) and the imcreasing size and speed of players has made playing with the oddly shaped ball a virtuall crap shoot from week to week.

 

At any rate, the strong caveat which should go with any prediction to make it truly accurate is that the outcome really depends on the game flow. If the Bills get an early league because the ST manages to run one back, our D gets turover, or the funny shaped ball bounces the right way for us, I think one will see a totally different Bills O performance playing to trying to catch-up or playing with a lead.

 

Given the dismal performances of our O against a bad Texans team and a good TD team I agree with you that I do not think our O will successfully deliver a score for us against a underrated ATL D on its own.

 

However, I think it will simply be a different game if ATL knows we have to pass or knows we will pass. If the AT defense is not able to take many risks because if they happen to get burned the game would get out of hand and the Bills O is using the pass opportunistically as a change-up rather than a situation similar to us being on our 4 yard line with 7 go for a first down and its thrid down when TB pinned us for a safety.

 

I think the O will hold its own initially and really will need to concentrate on winning the field position battle with moderate success rather than being called upon to score. The key will be for our ST to deliver us a score or a very short field (though then our redzone failings will get tested) from a return (we have shown good capability on KR and PR last year) of on a punt bliock (again with Peters last year and Sape this pre-season the capability is real). Alternately, this D which has shown the capability to produce turnovers will need to do this against an ATL O which has Michael Vick (a real danger to give them an early lead) but is far from perfect and can turn the ball over.

 

If we get an early lead I think the O performance will be very different that if it is trying to get a lead or catch up. Correct analysis of this situation strikes me as needing to account for the fact that the situations can be very different and it is a lot more than simply comparing the players.

[MRW]

I refuse to read a post which is that long telling me why the Bills won't score.

451330[/snapback]

 

 

(2)  agreed, way too long

451503[/snapback]

Yeah, God forbid we read actual analysis which does some position-by-position analysis and provides sound reasoning.

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

Rod coleman is definitly a nightmare in the middle of the falcons dline, as he's a sack monster, but much like our own ron edwards he's not all that great vs the run. This game will turn into a lot like the bucs game for our offense if there is no commitment to the run game. If Willis is prancing behind the line looking to make something happen out of nothing instead of just taking the available crease and getting 2-3 yards a pop. We'll continaly put our defense on the field in bad situations against another offense that lives and dies on the strength of their run game.

 

I'm pretty sure to answer simon's question that jerman did infact finish last sundays game for Mike Williams, which doesn't equate to good things at all for Losman rolling out/ Maybe having shelton or wr chip block kearney would help with that. However we should be running the ball with willis. Until we establish a ground game no one will fear JP Losman. Yes it's nice Lee Evans and Moulds will get single coverage, but defenses won't have respect for that if the quaterback can't hit them in stride. As our run game goes so goes our offense. Even if Willis has 28 carries for only 70 yards that's still showing commitment and will tire out a defense and make things much easier on the quaterback.

 

Atlanta will pound pound TJ Duckett and Warrick Dunn much like the bucs pounded caddy and occasionaly pittman. That's why it's imperative for our offense to pick up some 1st downs this week. Pound willis into the ground, and our offense will run much smoother. I agree with the people who have said we shouldn't blitz vick. Play containment and force him to sit in the pocket and beat you with his arm. Very Slim chance he'll ever be able to do that. Vick a lot like former pitt qb kordell stewart and most running qb's is at his worst when forced to put together a long drive where he has to beat you throwing. We'll be able to force him into mistakes and have the d help out our own struggling offense.

 

I don't see Losman improving much this week, and indeed having the same struggles as last week, if a commitment to running the ball isn't made by Tom Clements and the bills offensive coaching staff.

[TigerJ]

Atlanta so far does not seem to have anywhere near the defense that Tampa has. They will blitz a lot. Buffalo may need to max protect, but the receivers should be able to get open.

 

Vick may not be as mobile as usual with a sensitive hammy. If Buffalo plays with discipline and clogs the lanes to contain Vick, he's not usually a very effective passer since he doesn't have elite receivers and isn't terribly accurate a lot of the time.

 

I think Buffalo can win this one.

[Billsgirl]

 

Vick may not be as mobile as usual with a sensitive hammy.  If Buffalo plays with discipline and clogs the lanes to contain Vick, he's not usually a very effective passer since he doesn't have elite receivers and isn't terribly accurate a lot of the time.

 

 

 

That's mostly what I'm banking on for this weekend. If Vick plays I'm praying he's not going to be as agile and mobile, that he's either going to baby his leg or he's going to really be in pain... one good hit from our D if he does scramble could do him some good... I know that'd pump up the crowd to see Vick get sacked or tackled and hopefully get everyone playing a better game... But we'll see...

[Bill from NYC]

so if anybody has any sort of mental preparations to make, now might be a good time to start.

Why do I blaspheme so? Because for the second week in a row we're going to be staring into the teeth of one of the NFL's best Front4.

Yes, I can hear many of you now; "Simon you insufferable ass, keeping the ball away from DeAngelo Hall is certainly a more manageable than task than keeping it away from the likes of Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly and Derrick Brooks! And Tampa is certainly the best Front4 in the NFL, not the Falcons!"

I would not argue either of these things and agree that playing in Tampa in his second start was as nasty a task as JP is going to face for some time. But something that is less difficult can still be near impossible and I fear that is the situation we face Sunday.

When a professional defensive co-ordinator has the personell faerie wave a wand o'er his head and give him the ability to pressure the QB with just his front4, it creates one dangerous dude. Only having to rush four leaves 7 other tinkertoys to play with in coverage, which is significantly superior to 6; in addition, being able to suck up an entire passprotection scheme with just 4 guys makes your blitzes that much more effective. And while the Bucs pressure is prone to come off the edges, Atlanta is just as likely to get pressure right in the middle of the pocket with the nightmare that is Rod Coleman. All of this together is bound to make things very problematic for a green QB.

However this is some hope that we can get a couple 1stdowns by halftime.

First of all, we're at home and I think this is a tremendous boon for JP as he strikes me as a typically emotional young QB who is going to be greatly affected by road atmospheres. Not having to contend with that should allow him to focus solely on the game itself and incite him to play with a more agressive posture.

Anotehr thing worth considering is that Ed Donatel is fairly young for an NFL DCo-ordinator. So even if he's a good one, he certainly does not have the chops of Monte Kiffin and is not likely to throw nearly as much craft at Tom Clements.

Additionally, Atlanta doesn't have a 2ndcorner anywhere near the caliber of Brian Kelly. In fact I'd go so far as to say that the Bucs nickelback is better than anything the Falcons can put across from DeangleoHall, and with two good WR's that means we have ourselves a duck and Atlanta has a hole to adress that wasn't there when we played Tampa.

I also see JP's mobility being more of a factor this week than it was last week as the Bills make a concerted effort to get him out of the pocket and away from Coleman. The trouble with that will be if BigMike can't go it will be difficult to roll JP to his strength if we've got a back-up OT dealing with Pat Kearney. Maybe since Gandy should be able to handle BradySmith then the help he got against SimRice last week can be given to whoever will start at RT (who finished for MikeW last week? Please don't tell me Jerman).

Finally I envision Mike Mularkey being more directly involved with this week's gameplan and playcalling on Sunday. He used to be a qualitycontrol coach which means he's done a ton of self-scouting and should be able to help the Bills get out of the predictable ruts we saaw them in last week.

 

If Vick sits (which he would be if I was coaching the Falcons) we might be able to beat the Falcons with 17 pts. If he plays it'll take more along the lines of 23-24. Either way, with our D and ST's, all that should be asked of JP during the game is to put together a couple TD drives, protect the ball and turn a couple instances of fortunate field position into points. Can he do it? Yeah, I think he can but it's not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination.

451315[/snapback]

 

Great post Simon, as we have come to always expect.

Sadly, almost all of it comes down to the fact that you seem to show little confidence (not that I blame you) that the Bills will field an offensive line that is capable of protecting a quarterback, let alone one who is making his 3rd start.

 

While I do not differ with anything you wrote, I view this game as winable (sic?), but ONLY if we are able to run the football.

I am thinking that for the Bills to get a "W", we will need at least 150 yards on the ground, perhaps even 170 including JP.

Jmro.

[Nanker]

It would be nice to see the Bills commit their "Mauling-style" offensive line to the running game.

Willis should get the pill at least the first six offensive plays of the game. If we go three and out twice in a row, then they should just continue to run until they get a first down. JP should not throw the ball until the ground game has made two first downs. I don't care if they don't make one first down in the first half.

 

The passing game will never succeed until defenses respect our running game. By not committing to the run the coaching staff puts the lie to the pre-season moniker THEY put on the offensive line and the offensive philosophy. That has to change NOW or we're going to be in for a very long season indeed as MM seeks a new identity for this team week after week.

[IndyMark]

I believe the falcon defense is generally overrated and more apt to be wore down with a consistent running game. Sure they look good on paper, but they are a statistical anomaly more that a strong reality. Certainly this is arguable, but that is the point - their defense is arguably strong or arguably over-rated.

 

The Bills would have to offer up the proverbial 'egg' for them to lose this game - I can see WM having a strong game (125 yds) and JP performing above expectation. ST's will also be a key.

 

I originally had this as a loss on the Bills schedule, but (a) I also had the TB being a W (b) a 'hurt' Vick is better for us than a healthy Schaub.

 

Bills 27 -10.

[1billsfan]

It would be nice to see the Bills commit their "Mauling-style" offensive line to the running game.

Willis should get the pill at least the first six offensive plays of the game. If we go three and out twice in a row, then they should just continue to run until they get a first down. JP should not throw the ball until the ground game has made two first downs. I don't care if they don't make one first down in the first half. 

 

The passing game will never succeed until defenses respect our running game. By not committing to the run the coaching staff puts the lie to the pre-season moniker THEY put on the offensive line and the offensive philosophy. That has to change NOW or we're going to be in for a very long season indeed as MM seeks a new identity for this team week after week.

452261[/snapback]

 

I think the team should rip it up with passing the first series or two. Why? Because I have absolutely no faith that our team can have any kind of success running the ball with 8 or 9 men on the line of scrimmage. You say we have a mauling line, I don't think we do. I definately wouldn't call Teague, Anderson, Gandy or Williams maulers. Our only offensive success came when they let JP and the receivers get into a grove early which set up McGahee's big day. Last week? They let JP toss it around after he was benched and they got going again. We do not have a mauling line so we must make teams pay for crowding the line to open up the running game.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

The Falcons don't have near the same defense as the Bucs and they have some injured players (Brady Smith, Kevin Mathis, Allen Rossum). The Bills also won't have to contend with oppressive heat/humidity and crowd noise. Last of all, Vick won't be able to scramble as much as he's used to doing and NEEDS to do to be successful.