plenzmd1 Posted September 20, 2005 Posted September 20, 2005 Can usually start to make some money here as people still cling to preseason predictions for teams. Couple on my radar now. Overrated San Diego. Everybody thinks this is still a playoff team. I think they have lost to two pretty weak teams, and are in for a losing season. Green Bay. Most of the betting public refusing to believe how bad this team is in all phases of the game, including QB Baltimore. Still getting love from a Super Bowl win 4 years agoand an overrated defense. Underated Tampa Bay Not getting the respect they deserve yet. Think they win their division hands down. Chicago. Good D will keep them in every game. Orton may be the steal of the century. Everyone talked about Rodgers fall in the draft, how bout this kid. Mid-October, mid first rd pick projection. Gets hurt and goes to the 4th. Actually like them to win that abortion of a division. Which leads me to betting line of the week. Tampa only giving three to GB in Lambeau. Hate these fishy lines that seem like easy pickings, always come back to bite ya.
SDS Posted September 20, 2005 Posted September 20, 2005 you can get trends here: http://www.twobillsdrive.com/team/results.php by choosing teh individual team results you can see how they have been performing.
IDBillzFan Posted September 20, 2005 Posted September 20, 2005 Interesting. Here are a couple of other things that break the typical trends, but make for good early-season gambling. Taking the unda in Colts games. Ova has always been a good Colts bet, but with a decent D, they now keep scores low. And because Vegas' numbers are based on numbers and not trends, that number remains inherently high for Colts games for the next couple of weeks. Bills and the unda will work for about three more weeks, at which time I hope our offense starts making thing happen. But until then...few points by Buffalo and very few points by our opponents. Washington unda is like the Bills, but I can't get a read on Brunell. He looked rusty as hell last night, then launched those two beauties to Moss and put a quick 14 on the board...so I like them for undas for right now.
BuffOrange Posted September 20, 2005 Posted September 20, 2005 Can usually start to make some money here as people still cling to preseason predictions for teams. Couple on my radar now.Overrated San Diego. Everybody thinks this is still a playoff team. I think they have lost to two pretty weak teams, and are in for a losing season. Green Bay. Most of the betting public refusing to believe how bad this team is in all phases of the game, including QB Baltimore. Still getting love from a Super Bowl win 4 years agoand an overrated defense. Underated Tampa Bay Not getting the respect they deserve yet. Think they win their division hands down. Chicago. Good D will keep them in every game. Orton may be the steal of the century. Everyone talked about Rodgers fall in the draft, how bout this kid. Mid-October, mid first rd pick projection. Gets hurt and goes to the 4th. Actually like them to win that abortion of a division. Which leads me to betting line of the week. Tampa only giving three to GB in Lambeau. Hate these fishy lines that seem like easy pickings, always come back to bite ya. 447862[/snapback] You have to make the distinction between "media" and "vegas" over/underrated. Your list pertains to media and not Vegas. The Chargers were getting 3 pts in Denver last week which was obviously right (everyone picked SD to win that game), this week they're giving 6 to the Giants at home. If you want to take the Giants there be my guest, but I think SD is going to smoke 'em. Green Bay does suck, but the problem is Vegas understands this better than the general public. They were 3 pt dogs in Detroit in Week 1 for a reason, when everybody and their brother picked the Packers in that game. Likewise, Baltimore was only giving 3-4 against a horrible Tennessee team, so it's not like they're getting a ton of respect either. I agree on the Bears. I was suprised to see they were dogs last week at home vs. Detroit, and a little surprised to see them getting a FG at home vs. Cincy this week. As far as the point spreads go, the most overrated team so far has been Oakland IMO and I'm picking against them for the 3rd straight week. They only got 7 in NE, and 1 vs. KC, this week 8 in Philly. I don't know whether to chalk it up to Randy Moss hype or what. The Rams are always a good team to bet against especially on the road, and I think Denver will be this year as well. The pending status of Vick has that game off the board right now in a lot of places, but I have seen the Bills opening as a 1 pt favorite in a few places, and I really like Buffalo there FWIW.
plenzmd1 Posted September 20, 2005 Author Posted September 20, 2005 You have to make the distinction between "media" and "vegas" over/underrated. Your list pertains to media and not Vegas. The Chargers were getting 3 pts in Denver last week which was obviously right (everyone picked SD to win that game), this week they're giving 6 to the Giants at home. If you want to take the Giants there be my guest, but I think SD is going to smoke 'em. Green Bay does suck, but the problem is Vegas understands this better than the general public. They were 3 pt dogs in Detroit in Week 1 for a reason, when everybody and their brother picked the Packers in that game. Likewise, Baltimore was only giving 3-4 against a horrible Tennessee team, so it's not like they're getting a ton of respect either. I agree on the Bears. I was suprised to see they were dogs last week at home vs. Detroit, and a little surprised to see them getting a FG at home vs. Cincy this week. As far as the point spreads go, the most overrated team so far has been Oakland IMO and I'm picking against them for the 3rd straight week. They only got 7 in NE, and 1 vs. KC, this week 8 in Philly. I don't know whether to chalk it up to Randy Moss hype or what. The Rams are always a good team to bet against especially on the road, and I think Denver will be this year as well. The pending status of Vick has that game off the board right now in a lot of places, but I have seen the Bills opening as a 1 pt favorite in a few places, and I really like Buffalo there FWIW. 448042[/snapback] Great points on the media vs the beeting public. Still think that GB line is out of whack, should be closer to seven in my view, except for the perception GB cannot possibly be this bad. As full disclaimer, I lost my shirt on the Bears the year they went 13-3 when I made a stand that they were frauds and just getting lucky. This is the downside of having Sunday ticket. I watched alot of their games(cause I had money on them) and continued to make a stand week after week they would get beat. Dummy me, ya know. Now, I am going to make that stand with San Diego, but may lay off this week. I am not overly impressed the Gints either, so really do not have a feeling on that game
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