SDS Posted September 19, 2005 Posted September 19, 2005 I have often wondered if there was any significant way to chart vs. time how Super Bowl winners are built. For example, could the formula for success be that you get your QB 1st, your OL 2nd, your WR 3rd, and your RB last, such that they all hit their prime in a certain year? I don't have the means to conduct this kind of analysis - I'm not even sure what would be the most meaningful way to present the information would be, but there has always been something telling me that certain parts come before others before a winner is born. (as an example, IMHO, I think WM's talent will be wasted on JP. WM's replacement will more likely be wearing a SB ring before he will be, since JP will come into his own many years from now.)
KnightRider Posted September 19, 2005 Posted September 19, 2005 I have often wondered if there was any significant way to chart vs. time how Super Bowl winners are built. For example, could the formula for success be that you get your QB 1st, your OL 2nd, your WR 3rd, and your RB last, such that they all hit their prime in a certain year? I don't have the means to conduct this kind of analysis - I'm not even sure what would be the most meaningful way to present the information would be, but there has always been something telling me that certain parts come before others before a winner is born. (as an example, IMHO, I think WM's talent will be wasted on JP. WM's replacement will more likely be wearing a SB ring before he will be, since JP will come into his own many years from now.) 446372[/snapback] I think it depends on the type of team. Andre/Burkett (sort of) came before Kelly with Thomas coming later. Polian did the same thing with the Colts in Harrison, Manning, and then James. Neither are SB winners, but they are two successful offenses. Dallas followed the same pattern, too, albeit with 10000 extra draft picks... Other teams like the Redskins (Gibbs I), Giants, Steelers, and Cowboys (did I mention they had a few draft picks?) were known for great defense and a monster O-Line. The thing that muddies the water is free agency and the timing of when the cap explodes. That shifts the focus to the quality of coaching, ala New England. They get the most out of everybody, and no one is a superstar, and everyone is replaceable...
Fan in Chicago Posted September 19, 2005 Posted September 19, 2005 (as an example, IMHO, I think WM's talent will be wasted on JP. WM's replacement will more likely be wearing a SB ring before he will be, since JP will come into his own many years from now.) 446372[/snapback] Do you really believe that or was that an example only ? I think if it takes years for Losman to develop, he will win a SB for another team.
NavyBillsFan Posted September 19, 2005 Posted September 19, 2005 I have often wondered if there was any significant way to chart vs. time how Super Bowl winners are built. For example, could the formula for success be that you get your QB 1st, your OL 2nd, your WR 3rd, and your RB last, such that they all hit their prime in a certain year? I don't have the means to conduct this kind of analysis - I'm not even sure what would be the most meaningful way to present the information would be, but there has always been something telling me that certain parts come before others before a winner is born. (as an example, IMHO, I think WM's talent will be wasted on JP. WM's replacement will more likely be wearing a SB ring before he will be, since JP will come into his own many years from now.) 446372[/snapback] I would like to see a SB season like Baltimore had man. The whole team just played great. Outstanding D with just enough O to get you points. What worries me is by the time JP blooms, we will be rebuilding that D again.
stuckincincy Posted September 19, 2005 Posted September 19, 2005 I have often wondered if there was any significant way to chart vs. time how Super Bowl winners are built. For example, could the formula for success be that you get your QB 1st, your OL 2nd, your WR 3rd, and your RB last, such that they all hit their prime in a certain year? I don't have the means to conduct this kind of analysis - I'm not even sure what would be the most meaningful way to present the information would be, but there has always been something telling me that certain parts come before others before a winner is born. (as an example, IMHO, I think WM's talent will be wasted on JP. WM's replacement will more likely be wearing a SB ring before he will be, since JP will come into his own many years from now.) 446372[/snapback] Well, a cynic might say drafting Eric Steinback and Vince Wilfork over WMG and Lee Evans might be a possible path...
Ghost of BiB Posted September 19, 2005 Posted September 19, 2005 The thing that muddies the water is free agency and the timing of when the cap explodes. That shifts the focus to the quality of coaching, ala New England. They get the most out of everybody, and no one is a superstar, and everyone is replaceable... Agreed. Traditionally, a D and a good offensive line (running game) will get you a playoff seat, then any given Sunday takes over. But between the "top 5" salaries and how they've become inflated by certain managements and agents, I don't think it possible to "script" a SB team in this day and age. Were that possible, everyone would be doing it. Very few teams seem to be able to put both sides of the ball together well enough, and keep it together for the time it takes to get to the big one. The 90's Bills and the current Patriots are more of a fluke. Another strong consideration to me is depth, and acquiring quality players to step in as people age and move to the side. You can get the offense really clicking, but what happens when you lose Kent Hull and Jim Kelly? Same with defense, if the replacements aren't there. What have we and everyone else been doing? Going out on the market and buying best available for the immediate need. Who are we developing besides Losman?
Typical TBD Guy Posted September 19, 2005 Posted September 19, 2005 Interesting thread, SDS. I'll give it my best shot. This would be my general blueprint for a SB winner, and I assume all of us here recognize the EXTREME (i.e. ridiculous) level of uncertainty regarding player availability, cap constraints, injuries, trade prospects, players left over from previous regime, etc... Note that this 4 year plan only includes the 24 starters on a team (11 O, 11 D, K, P). I assume that Day 2 draft picks and bargain free agent signings would fill out the remaining backups and special teamers. Don't assume, though, that I am discrediting the importance of these types of players since they are arguably what has made the Patriots a dynasty (along with coaching). Year 1: Free Agency - C, LG, MLB Day 1 draft picks - pass-rushing DT-1st, LT-2nd, QB-3rd Year 2: Free Agency - RG, FS, will OLB Day 1 draft picks - pass-rushing DE-1st, split end WR-2nd, run-stuffing DT-3rd Year 3: Free Agency - TE, sammy OLB, SS Day 1 draft picks - CB-1st, RT-2nd, RB-3rd Year 4: Free Agency - K, P, FB Day 1 draft picks - CB-1st, run-stuffing DE-2nd, flanker WR-3rd I'd expect Year 1 to be about 4-12, Year 2 to be about 8-8, Year 3 to be about 10-6 with playoffs as a wild card, and Year 4 to be 12-4 with division title and deep playoffs/possible Super Bowl victory. Anyway, this was my best shot. I appreciate any questions, comments, or criticism!
VABills Posted September 19, 2005 Posted September 19, 2005 At some point you have to have a top tier coach. Ours is in the HOF. and we haven't sniffed a decent one since Marv left.
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