Milloy / Vincent at safety

[jarthur31]

Ditto for New England if they lose Rodney Harrison (backups: James Sanders/Guss Scott), Baltimore if they lose Ed Reed (Chad Williams/BJ Ward), or Dallas if they lose Roy Williams (Willie Pile). In fact, I'd imagine any team in the league could anticipate a dropoff between their starters and backups. Your point?

 

Milloy and Vincent played 4 games together at safety last season - that means there were 12 games they DIDN'T play together, and the defense was still pretty darn good. (Please note the 7-turnover game vs. Miami the week before Vincent returned from his knee injury, or the complete throttling of the NFC West champion Seahawks the week before that, or the 6-sack, 4-turnover, 35-yards-rushing performance vs. the Rams the week before that.....)

444135[/snapback]

 

Remember last September and what happened in the two games we had leads in, late in the game?

[Lori]

Remember last September and what happened in the two games we had leads in, late in the game?

444366[/snapback]

Indeed I do. I remember Nate Clements on 4th-and-14, and Fletch's dumbass penalty immediately following; Terrence McGee being abused by Wayne Chrebet all day, and the dumpoffs to Sowell on the Jests' game-winning drive.

Could a healthy Milloy/Vincent combo have changed the outcome of either game? Possibly, which is why I started posting get-well cards to Lawyer around that time.

 

I would note, however, that the Bills D gave up exactly one TD in each of those games, and totals of 13 and 16 points. That, to me, is far from "screwed" - unless our offense approaches the ineptitude shown by the Bills O circa September 2004.

 

But hey, that's just my opinion....

[GG]

Honestly, I don't think Griese has a chance against these two. They are rarely caught out of position. Same goes for Clements. Griese's best bet would be to hand the ball off to Cadillac and let him pound away on the left side against Schobel and Edwards.

444342[/snapback]

 

That's not a winning formula either.

 

While I'm still not sold on Schobel reaching Phil Hansen level of run support, I don't recall when a team has beaten this version of the D by featuring the run first. If they do that, Griese will se a lot of 3rd & 7-8. He is going to get hit a lot, because Gruden will also find out how good Cadillac is in picking up blitzes.

 

I'm with Lori on this one. Low scoring, D dominating, Bills win.

[cåblelady]

I'm with Lori on this one.  Low scoring, D dominating, Bills win.

444498[/snapback]

 

I like the way you two think.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

I mentioned this in another thread, but the Bucs have a rookie at LG and a first-time starter at LT. Schobel will have a big day today.

[eball]

can we just have a "stuff lori said" forum so i can sort through the rest of the drivel and get some good old-fashioned football analysis and perspective?

 

[cåblelady]

can we just have a "stuff lori said" forum so i can sort through the rest of the drivel and get some good old-fashioned football analysis and perspective?

 

444521[/snapback]

 

I'll second that!

[Typical TBD Guy]

That's not a winning formula either. 

 

While I'm still not sold on Schobel reaching Phil Hansen level of run support, I don't recall when a team has beaten this version of the D by featuring the run first.  If they do that, Griese will se a lot of 3rd & 7-8.  He is going to get hit a lot, because Gruden will also find out how good Cadillac is in picking up blitzes.

 

I'm with Lori on this one.  Low scoring, D dominating, Bills win.

444498[/snapback]

 

Sorry, GG. I didn't mean to imply that the Bucs WOULD have success running Cadillac to the left. All I meant was that they may have a higher chance of success (like, oh, say 15%) doing so when compared to throwing into our safety tandem (1-5%) . As MBD noted, the left side of the Bucs' OL blows.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Indeed I do. I remember Nate Clements on 4th-and-14, and Fletch's dumbass penalty immediately following; Terrence McGee being abused by Wayne Chrebet all day, and the dumpoffs to Sowell on the Jests' game-winning drive.

Could a healthy Milloy/Vincent combo have changed the outcome of either game? Possibly, which is why I started posting get-well cards to Lawyer around that time.

 

I would note, however, that the Bills D gave up exactly one TD in each of those games, and totals of 13 and 16 points. That, to me, is far from "screwed" - unless our offense approaches the ineptitude shown by the Bills O circa September 2004.

 

But hey, that's just my opinion....

444376[/snapback]

 

Lori. I think you do a great job of highlighting a real observational point and backing it up with stats which indicate well this observation is probably true. I think you are also correct in pretty much dismissing the negative nancy comments of jarthur since they seem to rely on a problem of injury which only a higher being has total control of an all teams would be hurt if they lost their starting safeties to injury. Its the translation of this concern to the WE'RE DOOMED talk implicit in jart's comments which are irrational.

 

The reasonable fact that this irrational fear is based on (like any good urban myth the rant is actuallty based on mis or over interpretation of one fact so the doomspeaker can claim some truth) is that both Vincent and Milloy missed games due to injury last year and both are older players and more subject to injury or in need of a longer recovery than the typical younger player.

 

Yet, even this fear has a couple of answers which if you crack research ability can indiciate confirmation (or indicate that yes houston we have a problem) it would be helpfl:

 

1. Scheme- The neat thing about Gray's implementation of our scheme is that he clearly has mastered understanding and application of the zone blitz (as seen in his adopting the play calling in LeBeau's first year) and has mastered the strategic gameplanning part of thi as show by the Bills great 3rd quarter D stats (they were 3rd or 4th last year in fewest points allowed in a quarter with their performance in the 3rd ;ast year). The overall good D statistical performance last year as seen in them being #2 statistically is also a great indicator of his stategic mastery.

 

The key is whether if Milloy or Vincent goes down again, is there some scheme change we can make that fills in for this loss. The stats indicate yes. Much of the Bills D dominance last year happened without Vincent and there were signs of this even without Milloy (though the presence of both obviously helped). The interesting thing is that even with both of them there against Pitts we feel though the D did not do the job to compensate for ST faults (the Lindell miss of the chipshot and NC laying a PR on the carpet) and Bledsoe not being enough to drive the O.

 

The Bills do have a scheme advantage for a short-term in that a key to the zone blitz is its unpredictability. Even if there is a hole due to injury, the opposing QB needs to find it, to be sure its not a fake problem we are creating to lure him into predictability and also that there is not some other zone blitz issue (LB blitzes for example) which he needs to watch for.

 

My sense is that in the short-run we can cover for losing either player with some scheme or playcalling adjust,emts.

 

2. Players- The other obvious back-up to losing either player is the quality of the player that replaces them. I would regret the loss of Vincent because he has been a pure monster collecting INTs at saftety. We have gone from a situation where we go years without a safety INT to Vincent collecting 2 last week and multiple INTs at safety at the end of last season. I'd go as far as saying that if he avoids injury this season he will threaten for a Pro Bowl nod (and likely get it if he is among the top safeties in INTS because he is demonstrably popular and respected as seen by his NFLPA role). I do not feel bad at all though if we lose this former Pro Bowler having to go with former starter Baker at safety.

 

SS is a bigger question mark as Wire has not shown the ability to handle the job and he is our #2. Prayer is probably the best bet, but folks should remember that our prayers may possibly be answered as Wire was actually productive this pre-season on ST leading the team in tackles a couple or more games. Also it is no wonder he has struggled a lot in safety pass coverage as he never played this role at any level of organized ball. Will Wire be a good SS if pressed into the role? No, probably not. Will this 4th year pro finally be adequate if pressed into SS service again. Maybe. I pray it never comes to that and if it does I pray he is adequate. Neither are far fetched though it is possible we will see.

[Ghost of BiB]

Lori. I think you do a great job of highlighting a real observational point and backing it up with stats which indicate well this observation is probably true.  I think you are also correct in pretty much dismissing the negative nancy comments of jarthur since they seem to rely on a problem of injury which only a higher being has total control of an all teams would be hurt if they lost their starting safeties to injury.  Its the translation of this concern to the WE'RE DOOMED talk implicit in jart's comments which are irrational.

 

The reasonable fact that this irrational fear is based on (like any good urban myth the rant is actuallty based on mis or over interpretation of one fact so the doomspeaker can claim some truth) is that both Vincent and Milloy missed games due to injury last year and both are older players and more subject to injury or in need of a longer recovery than the typical younger player.

 

Yet, even this fear has a couple of answers which if you crack research ability can indiciate confirmation (or indicate that yes houston we have a problem) it would be helpfl:

 

1. Scheme- The neat thing about Gray's implementation of our scheme is that he clearly has mastered understanding and application of the zone blitz (as seen in his adopting the play calling in LeBeau's first year) and has mastered the strategic gameplanning part of thi as show by the Bills great 3rd quarter D stats (they were 3rd or 4th last year in fewest points allowed in a quarter with their performance in the 3rd ;ast year). The overall good D statistical performance last year as seen in them being #2 statistically is also a great indicator of his stategic mastery.

 

The key is whether if Milloy or Vincent goes down again, is there some scheme change we can make that fills in for this loss. The stats indicate yes. Much of the Bills D dominance last year happened without Vincent and there were signs of this even without Milloy (though the presence of both obviously helped). The interesting thing is that even with both of them there against Pitts we feel though the D did not do the job to compensate for ST faults (the Lindell miss of the chipshot and NC laying a PR on the carpet) and Bledsoe not being enough to drive the O.

 

The Bills do have a scheme advantage for a short-term in that a key to the zone blitz is its unpredictability. Even if there is a hole due to injury, the opposing QB needs to find it, to be sure its not a fake problem we are creating to lure him into predictability and also that there is not some other zone blitz issue (LB blitzes for example) which he needs to watch for.

 

My sense is that in the short-run we can cover for losing either player with some scheme or playcalling adjust,emts.

 

2. Players- The other obvious back-up to losing either player is the quality of the player that replaces them. I would regret the loss of Vincent because he has been a pure monster collecting INTs at saftety. We have gone from a situation where we go years without a safety INT to Vincent collecting 2 last week and multiple INTs at safety at the end of last season. I'd go as far as saying that if he avoids injury this season he will threaten for a Pro Bowl nod (and likely get it if he is among the top safeties in INTS because he is demonstrably popular and respected as seen by his NFLPA role).  I do not feel bad at all though if we lose this former Pro Bowler having to go with former starter Baker at safety.

 

SS is a bigger question mark as Wire has not shown the ability to handle the job and he is our #2.  Prayer is probably the best bet, but folks should remember that our prayers may possibly be answered as Wire was actually productive this pre-season on ST leading the team in tackles a couple or more games. Also it is no wonder he has struggled a lot in safety pass coverage as he never played this role at any level of organized ball. Will Wire be a good SS if pressed into the role? No, probably not. Will this 4th year pro finally be adequate if pressed into SS service again. Maybe. I pray it never comes to that and if it does I pray he is adequate. Neither are far fetched though it is possible we will see.

444564[/snapback]

 

Why is it that I picture you sitting in a dark room on a pile of pillows smoking a houka and eating small live animals?

[Lori]

.... Gruden will also find out how good Cadillac is in picking up blitzes.

444498[/snapback]

Oooh, I'm liking the sounds of that.

Thanks for the input, GG.

 

FFS, we're thinking along the same lines (I think). Obviously, losing either Milloy or Vincent for any length of time would downgrade the Bills D - but IMO, merely from "unreal" status to still "very good".

 

After all this love for the Bills D, I figure they now owe us a shutout....

[bill in Livonia]

Another killer post Lori

[SDS]

c'mon - let's try and keep this thread on topic out of respect to Lori.

[Ghost of BiB]

c'mon - let's try and keep this thread on topic out of respect to Lori.

444697[/snapback]

 

I respect Lori. Big time, I have no football knowledge to surpass hers, that's why I joke.

 

I have no respect for Sue. I did at one point, but she's willing to plan to hurt people to feed her fantasies. Delete this one too, know you will.

[SDS]

I respect Lori. Big time, I have no football knowledge to surpass hers, that's why I joke.

 

I have no respect for Sue. I did at one point, but she's willing to plan to hurt people to feed her fantasies. Delete this one too, know you will.

444704[/snapback]

 

there is a time and place for everything. Just because posts were removed, it doesn't mean the sentiment was valid.

[jester43]

I got to thinking about this last Sunday, while watching the Bills wreak havoc on the Texans' passing game. Remembered a discussion from June...

http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=25813

...and decided to drag up what I wrote back then:

The five regular-season games since Troy Vincent became the starting FS:

Buffalo 37, Cleveland 7 - 7 sacks, 5 turnovers, 26 total yards, -3 net passing yards. Vincent hit the trifecta with a sack, INT, and fumble recovery; Milloy added a sack.

 

Buffalo 33, Cincinnati 17 - 3 sacks, 4 turnovers, 1 defensive TD (62-yd INT return by Spikes), 126 net passing yards. Quiet day for the safeties, as the front 7 made the big plays in this game.

 

Buffalo 41, San Francisco 7 - 3 sacks, 4 turnovers, 91 net passing yards. Milloy had one of the 3 Bills INTs. San Francisco never made it past the Buffalo 45 until their single scoring drive in the fourth quarter, when most of the Buffalo starters were already celebrating on the sidelines.

 

Pittsburgh 29, Buffalo 24 - 3 sacks, 3 turnovers, 1 defensive TD (Clements 30-yd INT return), 105 net passing yards.

Despite drive starts on the Buffalo 20 and 24, the Steelers offense only found the end zone once. The key to that game was Buffalo's inability to hold onto the ball in the first half - four three-and-outs plus a bad Bledsoe INT, and at halftime, Pittsburgh had an 18:58-11:02 edge in TOP. (That perhaps explains why the D wore down in the second half, no?)

 

Buffalo 22, Houston 7 - 5 sacks, 5 turnovers, 120 total net yards, 25 net passing yards. Vincent had 2 INTs (and almost a third), Milloy an INT and a fumble recovery.

 

Totals: 21 sacks, 21 turnovers. That averages out to over 4 of each per game - think about that for a minute, averaging 4 takeaways/game. And check out this average, too - 68.8 net passing yards/game. Granted, the Bills weren't playing against Peyton Manning or Brett Favre in any of those games, but those numbers are still unreal.

 

And this week's opponent, Tampa Bay, offers up a LG/LT combo who had started a combined 0 NFL games before last weekend.

Here's to a sleepless night for Brian Griese tonight....

444064[/snapback]

 

damn. people from port allegany are smart!

[jarthur31]

Indeed I do. I remember Nate Clements on 4th-and-14, and Fletch's dumbass penalty immediately following; Terrence McGee being abused by Wayne Chrebet all day, and the dumpoffs to Sowell on the Jests' game-winning drive.

Could a healthy Milloy/Vincent combo have changed the outcome of either game? Possibly, which is why I started posting get-well cards to Lawyer around that time.

 

I would note, however, that the Bills D gave up exactly one TD in each of those games, and totals of 13 and 16 points. That, to me, is far from "screwed" - unless our offense approaches the ineptitude shown by the Bills O circa September 2004.

 

But hey, that's just my opinion....

444376[/snapback]

 

Yes, but when your team leads by 30 or just 3 points late in the 4th quarter, it's up to the D to hold it if they want to win.

[Crap Throwing Monkey]

So much for "constructive replies".

444282[/snapback]

 

I tried. I simply have nothing to add. Great post.

 

And the wife's a Bucs fan. We're not speaking at the moment.