Lindell- Interesting Bills Daily Reported Stats

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Cliff notes begin: I understand that many have advocated cutting him, but in the big picture Lindell has been excellent at crticial aspects of the kicking game and to cut him for the high profile parts he has not performed well on (the chip shot in Pitts last season and inspiring MMs confidence at 40+ yards) were not good enough reasons to cut him and lose what he has done well. Thus is particularly true given that the suggested alternatives (Nugent, Francis for example) were unproven that they would have been as good as Lindell on kickoffs, onsides or even regarding the two stats from Bills Daily relfected below. Cliff notes end.

 

As usual, I went to Bills Daily to get a dose of late breaking Bills perspective (though not the latest breaking as I usually see news for the first time on TSW, Bills Daily does provide a more objective cut on the latest news however).

 

At any rate along the right hand side of the homepage they list a number of interesting factoids that tend toward describing longer term trends in Bills performance. Among them were these two nuggets:

 

Rian Lindell is the most accurate FG kicker in team history with a 80.7% average.

 

Rian Lindell had made all 166 extra point attempts in his career.

 

These two points seem to explain why this offseason despite the fact that fans on TSW saw two choices for how to deal with Lindell (first we might cut him today and second we might have cut him yesterday) the Bills did entertain the option of going elsewhere signing several kicker types as free agents and even assigning a kicker to NFL Europe, they never seemed to take serious steps toward replacing Lindell (for example signing an FA kicker like Francis and announcing there would be a kickoff between the two or drafting a replacement like Nugent).

 

The Bills clearly were displeased with Lindell missing a chip shot against Pitts last year and MM rarely seemed to show confidence that Lindell could be relied upon over 40 yards as a placekicker (TD made a point for the fans of standing over Lindells shoulder and staring at him in an open Bills practice).

 

However, TD was on record speaking to the importance of stats like the two above (Lindell has been around for awhile and the first stat of him having the BEST accuracy in his career of ANY Bills kicker should be taken seriously though this stat in part comes from him not being called upon at ANY point in his career to have the game resting on his toe with a +40 yard kick in the last seconds of a game. This streak is really very unusual for a kicker and also comes from MM not having the confidence to use him over 40 yards so we go for the first or punt instead). The Bills clearly believe in Lindell and are committed to him come heck or high water.

 

Many TD haters attribute this to TD being so egotistical that he sticks with his choice Lindell regardless of how bad he is.

 

This is not true based on other occurences. TD has been positively cold and cruel in jettisoning a player when he is done with him seemingly regardless of ego or the popularity of the player. If TD were in fact so ego-driven rather than wanting to win regardless of any bruised feelings then Drew Bledsoe would still be QB, Jason Glidon would have been a Bill last year and John Holocek and Henry Jones would have been Bills in 2001. In these cases (and probably more if we could see all the contracts TD has shown that he will have the Bills take a financial hit and he will get rid of players he was responsible for giving a ton of Ralph's money to.

 

In addition, there have been players like John Dorenbos or Drew Haddad who were media or fan favorites but if the Bills saw what they considered a better option they were gone.

 

My sense is that stats like the two above are important to the TD/MM assessment that though they are displeased with Lindell missing the chip shot against Pitts bigtime he has been perfectly reliable as a placekicker in key facets of the game. Like it or not Lindell-haters but hitting all your EPs means you hit all your EPs. Being #1 in career accuracy after 2+ seasons with the Bills means you are #1 in career accuracy ahead of Scott Norwood, Gogolak and erven Steve Christie (two of whome were Bills for far longer than Lindell so in the comparison of points produced for the Bills which the team uses Lindell is "merely" 6th all time though he will almost certainly move up to 4th on the list even if he were to only make EPs this year).

 

IMHO Lindells placekicking and my own frustration with him missing the chip shot even had me accepting looking elsewhere for a kicker this past off-season. However, I had big questions and tried to ask them during our consideration of Nugent that just as important to me as the placekicking was actually the fact that Lindell was bar none great at kickoffs last year.

 

I think folks are wrong to think of kickoffs as merely a mechanical task which anyone can do. A good kickoff guy is not only the initiator of the game, but must kick the ball off in the direction and with the height expected by the coverage team every single time (cover guys must run IN THEIR LANES to a spot and cannot spend their time looking into the air to try to gauge where and how high the kickoff is this time or some blocker is going to knock them into next week).

 

This task is particularly dicey in the variable winds of the Ralph and Lindell and the kickoff coverage team was near perfect last year giving up no returns for TDs and even few long yardage returns. Lindell is a superior kicker in this aspect of the game and I doubt any rookie is worth a first day pick because regardless of their accuracy or strength of their leg you do not know whether they can kickoff at a Pro level of expertise until they are in the league a few years.

 

In addition to being a kickoff stud, Lindell has 3 onside kick tries last year. One did not work due to his kick, one was kicked well (Pitts) and Rashad Baker got his paws on the ball (all you can reasonably ask of a kicker actually) but did not bring it in and his third attempt was simply masterful as he not only joined the rest of the team in fooling the opponent of our intentions at the beginning of the second half, but kicked it with great timing the necessary ten yards (no Bill can even touch an opponent to block until the ball travels 10 yards) and he made the recovery himself.

 

Kickers are hired to placekick reliably and Lindell did not do that last year to the tune of MM having little seeming confidence in him at 40+ and him missing a chip shot. These failures showed that TD was simply flat out wrong when he tried to justify the cut of Christie (still placekicking reliably last I saw though his leg has weakened) by saying good kickers are a dime a dozen. The sad cases of Jake Ariens, our cut of the now reliable Shayne Graham, and our failure to work it out with Hollis simply show it ain't that easy.

 

However, the bottomline (at least so far this week as if one judges a kicker soley on placekicking he can easily go from hero to goat in one week) is that in two years Lindell has:

 

1. Proved to be an incredible asset to the coverage game and anyone advocating his replacement needs to indicate among the first things they say why their proposed replacement is going to produce the same or better results.

 

2. Missed a crucial placekick in the Pitts game and has not forced MM to use him above 40 yards consistently (the best like Vinateri and Vanderjagt have performed well enough to do this), but overall as a placekicker after 2+ years he is #1 in career accuracy for placekickers and has made ALL his EPs in regular season and though this does not make him good at 40+ it should not be ignored.

 

3. Been very good at the onside part of the game which a kicker will be called upon to do 3-4 times a season and if he does it successfully once we are ahead of the game.

 

I'm extraordinarily happy things have worked out with Lindell (this week) and the nature of the role is that he simply has to make it work out next week as well. if not them folks will justifiably (though not reasonably) call for his head.

 

As a Bills fan I am glad that TD/MM and the crew resisted our rantings and and have made reasonable judgments about who is kicking for us.

[Alaska Darin]

Thanks for another epic. Is your Indian name "To Make a Short Story Long"?

 

Lindell is on his shortest leash ever. He knows it. I know it. Do you know it?

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

You do put the "exhaust" in "exhaustive," FFS, but you also raise a question that has been bugging me for a while, which I posted in another thread, but that no one can answer yet, and that is: When have the Bills punted or gone for it rather than tried a FG of more than 40 yards since Lindell was here? It has become an urban legend that such is the case, and people cite his relatively few attempts from more than 40, but that proves nothing. All it proves is that the Bills O moved the ball well enough between the 20s that they rarely stalled out in long FG range. (In fact, the O's pathetic red zone performance last year is one reason why he had so many attempts from less than 40...)

 

I think too many people remember Greggo punting from the NE 30 on the first drive of the second half of the first Pats game in 2002, and have somehow allowed that pain to merge with their Lindell hatred to create this legend, but I am still waiting for proof.

 

This is not to say that Lindell is not still on a short leash for his key misses last year. I still worry about every attempt, but I have done the same with every Bills kicker since John Leypoldt (who, for all his success with the Bills, cost them at least two Miami games with missed PATs, not to mention the 1975 Giants game on MNF, but that is another story), so that's not saying much.

 

Go Bills!

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Until the Bills have a better option, Lindell will be here. I don't see where cutting him for some unkown is a step in the direction of goodness.

 

Maybe he doesn't have a long leg, ok, but there is still something to say for being very accurate on shot kicks. Is it better to be worse on short kicks but better on long kicks??? Don't have the answer! I will say this, so far this season, his kickoffs have been longer and he has made a few longer field goals with quite a bit distance to spare. Considering how good the Bills kick coverage is, getting an extra 5 yards on kickoffs this year may translate into on extra TD over the course of the year through better field position.

[ch19079]

seriously, there is no way in hell im going to read that whole thing. im sure its well writen and very informative, but damn. just sum it up in 1 paragraph and move on.

[ricojes]

Well I made it through about 1/4 of that first novel (holy crap that was long ), so I hope I don't repeat anything. let's not underestimate the difference a long snapper can make. Cutting Dorenbas (whatever) could be the best thing for Lindell. He had a bullet snap and some kickers do not adapt to that well, I think we will see many more 40+ yard field goals this year.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

seriously, there is no way in hell im going to read that whole thing. im sure its well writen and very informative, but damn. just sum it up in 1 paragraph and move on. 

442873[/snapback]

 

Actually, he did sum it up in one para... that was the "Cliffs Notes" section at the top.....

[Typical TBD Guy]

I've posted this link before, but it's worth posting again.

 

I'd be willing to trade Lindell's 100% on PAT, 80.7% on overall field goals, and piss-poor ability beyond the 40 yard line for a kicker who is 98-99% PAT, only 70-75% on overall field goals, but who gives our coaching staff much more confidence in the medium to long range field goals.

 

Would you?

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

I've posted this link before, but it's worth posting again.

 

I'd be willing to trade Lindell's 100% on PAT, 80.7% on overall field goals, and piss-poor ability beyond the 40 yard line for a kicker who is 98-99% PAT, only 70-75% on overal field goals, but who gives our coaching staff much more confidence in the medium to long range field goals.

 

Would you?

442885[/snapback]

 

 

That question cannot be answered without responding to mine, KH. I am still waiting for evidence that our staff altered strategy because of lack of faith in Lindell. Open minded, but waiting.... and so far no one has anything to say except to repeat the urban legend. Sure, we might not have faith in him, but have the coaches done anything to show that they do not...?

 

Anyone... anyone? Bueller?......

[ricojes]

I've posted this link before, but it's worth posting again.

 

I'd be willing to trade Lindell's 100% on PAT, 80.7% on overall field goals, and piss-poor ability beyond the 40 yard line for a kicker who is 98-99% PAT, only 70-75% on overal field goals, but who gives our coaching staff much more confidence in the medium to long range field goals.

 

Would you?

442885[/snapback]

I think everyone is putting too much emphasis on the coaching staff not having confidence in Lindell. Has Malarky ever said anything about his confidence in Lindell that I missed? I think it boils down to a first year coach playing it safe. Nothing to do with confidence in the kicker, rather pinning your opponent deep and letting your defense do it's job.

[ricojes]

That question cannot be answered without responding to mine, KH. I am still waiting for evidence that our staff altered strategy because of lack of faith in Lindell. Open minded, but waiting.... and so far no one has anything to say except to repeat the urban legend. Sure, we might not have faith in him, but have the coaches done anything to show that they do not...?

 

Anyone... anyone? Bueller?......

442894[/snapback]

Well said.....

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

I think everyone is putting too much emphasis on the coaching staff not having confidence in Lindell.  Has Malarky ever said anything about his confidence in Lindell that I missed?  I think it boils down to a first year coach playing it safe.  Nothing to do with confidence in the kicker, rather pinning your opponent deep and letting your defense do it's job.

442895[/snapback]

 

Exactly the question that I have been asking with no response....

 

What does a guy have to do to get involved in a conversation around here... move to Alaska, change my name to "JillWhoLovesCouchPotatoesPleasePMMe"... what?

 

Edit: Thank you rjcojes!

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

You do put the "exhaust" in "exhaustive," FFS, but you also raise a question that has been bugging me for a while, which I posted in another thread, but that no one can answer yet, and that is: When have the Bills punted or gone for it rather than tried a FG of more than 40 yards since Lindell was here? It has become an urban legend that such is the case, and people cite his relatively few attempts from more than 40, but that proves nothing. All it proves is that the Bills O moved the ball well enough between the 20s that they rarely stalled out in long FG range. (In fact, the O's pathetic red zone performance last year is one reason why he had so many attempts from less than 40...)

 

I think too many people remember Greggo punting from the NE 30 on the first drive of the second half of the first Pats game in 2002, and have somehow allowed that pain to merge with their Lindell hatred to create this legend, but I am still waiting for proof.

 

This is not to say that Lindell is not still on a short leash for his key misses last year. I still worry about every attempt, but I have done the same with every Bills kicker since John Leypoldt (who, for all his success with the Bills, cost them at least two Miami games with missed PATs, not to mention the 1975 Giants game on MNF, but that is another story), so that's not saying much.

 

Go Bills!

442753[/snapback]

 

I also don't know the answer to your question off the top of my head and as no simple stat is kept and bandied about to reflect this I will try to figure it out if I find the time.

 

The numbers should be findable of how many times the Bills went for it on 4th and how successful they were. The number of Lindell attempts and success at +40 FGs should also be findable. The number of punts by Moorman from a line of scrimmage in Bills territory may also be semi-easily found and a convergence of these three stats should numerically answer you question.

 

The way the answer feels to me from my watching the games which would either be confirmed or questioned by stats is that the stated fact by Lindell that he has never gone 2 years before with no games being decided one way or the other by his last second kick is an indicator that he rarely has been asked to even try 40+ FGs.

 

My recollection is that last season the Bills were either blowing out the opponents so badly (most of the 9 wins were laughers) or being blown out so badly (like the NE game) that there have been few times we went for 40+ FGs because it either made no sense to give them the field position if we missed as our winning strategy was not to get points but to run clock or 3 points made no difference to us because we needed 7 points.

 

Ironically part of the reason Lindell's career success % is so high because all we use him for is short kicks. Last season i only remember us trying two game critical 40+ FGs and ironically he hit at least one of them but the points came off the board because we called TO. After the TOs we ran one 4th and short play and the great Bledsoe fake of the QB sneak and the pitch to WM resulted in a TD. In the other case, we went for the kick again after the play where the ball went through the uprights was called dead and Lindell never got the kick off as the snap went bad and Moorman got tackled running for his life.

 

These plays never show up in the stats because though Lindell kicked with distance and accuracy it meant nothing.

 

I will attempt to confirm this but invite anyone who wants to do this because my loively wife has a few things on our schedule (my nephew's 1tth B-day, dinner with her old boss) so i will be delayed in getting to this if I do.

[GG]

So, in summary, Lindell is good kicker who is unreliable in a clutch?

[Typical TBD Guy]

ricojes and RJ,

 

Just look at Lindell's attempts beyond the 40 yard line and compare them with other NFL kickers' attempts at the same distances (for the 2003 and 2004 seasons). Especially for the attempts beyond the 50 yard line, which all NFL kickers should have the legs for.... stats like that tell a story.

 

For the record, though, I'm not a Lindell Basher. I'm more than willing to give Lindell at least a few more weeks to justify his previous 2 years as a Bill. Last Sunday's performance was solid, and maybe Dorenbos really was the problem. I don't know for sure, but I still trust MM + April + TD to do the right thing regarding our kicker.

[Matt in KC]

That question cannot be answered without responding to mine, KH. I am still waiting for evidence that our staff altered strategy because of lack of faith in Lindell. Open minded, but waiting.... and so far no one has anything to say except to repeat the urban legend. Sure, we might not have faith in him, but have the coaches done anything to show that they do not...?

 

Anyone... anyone? Bueller?......

442894[/snapback]

From my memory, there were 3-4 times last year that we went for a first down on 4th and long, or punted instead of attempting a 45-50 yard FG.

 

I think this is what has been interpretted as lack of confidence.

 

(Goodness knows Moorman doesn't like what this does to his punting average....)

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Thanks for another epic.  Is your Indian name "To Make a Short Story Long"?

 

Lindell is on his shortest leash ever.  He knows it.  I know it.  Do you know it?

442552[/snapback]

 

What is this short leash? I think he is a Bill all season unless he suffers some amazing problems. I think he can blow a game and probably two on placekicks without it costing him his job (I'm not saying this is a good thing i advocate, it just strikes me as the fact).

 

Lindell will not be cut unless TD sees a better alternative. I have seen no one present a better alternative who has a record which rivals the Lindell success at the kickoff game or doing onsides. Clearly he has failings placekicking in terms of the missed chipshot and inspiring confidence at a distance.

 

Howevwer, even his placekicking failings are balanced in TD's mind by him having THE BEST success % of any Bills kicker in history.

 

I'd cut him in a NY second if Vinateri or even that weirdo Vanderjagt were available at a good price but outside of flights of fantasy regarding Nugent (I don't see using a 1st day pick on a rookie kicker as agood policy) and folks being impressed with Francis placekicking but having little tangible to say about his kickoffs, I don't see Lindell as being on a short leash at all.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

seriously, there is no way in hell im going to read that whole thing. im sure its well writen and very informative, but damn. just sum it up in 1 paragraph and move on. 

442873[/snapback]

That's what the cliff notes are for it sums up the point the too long post made. If folks want the argument behind it as I said i use these posts to think out loud and though I am happy to summarize the gist of the argument because folks asked me to and I value the community here, also taking the time to digest the argument itself for the reading impaired is more time than even i can take from my work.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I've posted this link before, but it's worth posting again.

 

I'd be willing to trade Lindell's 100% on PAT, 80.7% on overall field goals, and piss-poor ability beyond the 40 yard line for a kicker who is 98-99% PAT, only 70-75% on overall field goals, but who gives our coaching staff much more confidence in the medium to long range field goals.

 

Would you?

442885[/snapback]

 

Sure, but who specifically is this? If no one then you keep Lindell.

[Typical TBD Guy]

From my memory, there were 3-4 times last year that we went for a first down on 4th and long, or punted instead of attempting a 45-50 yard FG.

 

I think this is what has been interpretted as lack of confidence. 

 

(Goodness knows Moorman doesn't like what this does to his punting average....)

442926[/snapback]

 

But that's not what ricojes and RJ want. They want a complete statistical and circumstancial history of the Bills' offensive drives that resulted in 4th downs in opponents' territories since Lindell's first year as a Bill (2003).

 

Ricojes and RJ's demands seem fair, because I too prefer facts over general perceptions, but does anyone else reading this have the time to do such a search?