Bills - Buccaneers overview

[Ghost of BiB]

Who's Lori?

[eball]

great thoughts and analysis, lori. i'll add a few of my own:

 

-- it makes me chuckle when i read how TB shut down minnesota's running game last week. umm -- WHAT running game?

 

-- TB's defense is known for it's speed and ability to get to the passer. they have always had difficulty with power running games aimed at the middle of the defense, however. this is where buffalo's game plan needs to focus. we have a couple of bruising backs (mcgahee, gates) who should be run into the ground in this game. with shaud williams nursing a sore ankle, gates should move to the #2 spot -- particulary against this type of defense.

 

-- brian griese puts up great stats in the WC offense, but also manages to commit huge turnovers at the most inopportune moments. the bills' D are now certified ballhawks -- not the best matchup for the bucs.

 

-- i'm becoming more confident about this game as the week progresses. i listened to ronde barber on "the barbershop" (sirius NFL radio, tuesday nights from 7-8) and he actually sounded fearful for the bucs' offense this week b/c of the OL woes.

[ATBNG]

Best post I've read in awhile. Great Job Lori ! Thanks for sharing. That wierd factoid. How is it that they have played 7 times but never in Buffalo ?

441115[/snapback]

 

That was one of the vagaries of the old schedule, and reasons why they changed it. Now every team in the league will be seen by a season ticket holder over the course of 8 years (each NFC team exactly once in 8 years).

 

There probably is some NFC North team that has played an unusual amount of games over the years in Buffalo to compensate.

[BuffOrange]

That was one of the vagaries of the old schedule, and reasons why they changed it. Now every team in the league will be seen by a season ticket holder over the course of 8 years (each NFC team exactly once in 8 years).

 

There probably is some NFC North team that has played an unusual amount of games over the years in Buffalo to compensate.

441488[/snapback]

 

Yeah, up until 2000 we hosted Minnesota quite a few times in a row.

[Dan Gross]

Great analysis, I thought I was reading something professionally written. 

One minor correction, Josh Bidwell is their punter, Josh Miller is on the Patriots.

441102[/snapback]

 

 

Wow, write the date, Lori was wrong about something.

 

Doesn't happen often.

 

Thanks again for a great analysis though Lori.

[Ghost of BiB]

Wow, write the date, Lori was wrong about something.

 

Doesn't happen often.

 

Thanks again for a great analysis though Lori.

441597[/snapback]

 

She does do good work, whoever she is.

[bill in Livonia]

Great stuff Lori!

I think we will need (and probably get) a defensive touchdown to win this game. Bill 17, Bucs 13

[MDH]

great thoughts and analysis, lori.  i'll add a few of my own:

 

-- it makes me chuckle when i read how TB shut down minnesota's running game last week.  umm -- WHAT running game?

 

-- TB's defense is known for it's speed and ability to get to the passer.  they have always had difficulty with power running games aimed at the middle of the defense, however.  this is where buffalo's game plan needs to focus.  we have a couple of bruising backs (mcgahee, gates) who should be run into the ground in this game.  with shaud williams nursing a sore ankle, gates should move to the #2 spot -- particulary against this type of defense.

 

 

441444[/snapback]

 

 

I'll agree that Tampa's smallish D is susceptible to the power running game. However, I'm concerned about WM's penchant for bouncing stuff outside instead of taking the 2-4 yards he could get back banging it between tackles. Against Tampa's incredible pursuit McGahee won't be getting many yards bouncing it outside and won't wear down the D as much either. I don't see our running game being successful this week unless Willis changes his game a little bit. He'll see 7 in the box most of the game, so if he runs where the play is designed I see him eventually having some success as the D gets worn down.

[Lori]

Who's Lori?

441425[/snapback]

I'll get you for that...

 

Thanks for the feedback, and epecially to both Harv and ATBNG for correcting my screwup. (Sad thing is, I just checked my notebook, and I had Bidwell written in there - must've just brainlocked when I was typing this before heading into work last night. KNEW I should've proofread one more time. Arrrrgh..... )

In case y'all haven't figured it out by now, "Ms. Information" can be read more than one way. Ripping off a line from Tony Kornheiser, I'll try to do better next time...

[sillyeddie]

I'll get you for that...

 

Thanks for the feedback, and epecially to both Harv and ATBNG for correcting my screwup. (Sad thing is, I just checked my notebook, and I had Bidwell written in there - must've just brainlocked when I was typing this before heading into work last night. KNEW I should've proofread one more time. Arrrrgh..... )

In case y'all haven't figured it out by now, "Ms. Information" can be read more than one way. Ripping off a line from Tony Kornheiser, I'll try to do better next time...

441935[/snapback]

 

better next time, that was pretty good. Other than the Scouts Inc. detailed write-up tomorrow, that may be the best one I'll read all week.

 

I'm new... do you write these every week?

[Lori]

I'm new... do you write these every week?

441959[/snapback]

That's the plan, anyway. Next week: the Michael Vick Experience, Chris Chandler vs. Alex Van Pelt, and Jim Kelly breaking the leg of an Atlanta DB who dared to intercept one of his passes....

 

By the way, welcome aboard!

[don_of_manhattan]

Lori, how old were you when you started following football?

What got you interested?

I am the father of two girls (ages 8 and almost 4) and I really want them to love and understand the game...

Awesome post.

[Ghost of BiB]

Lori, how old were you when you started following football?

What got you interested?

I am the father of two girls (ages 8 and almost 4) and I really want them to love and understand the game...

Awesome post.

441973[/snapback]

 

Lori's an awesome poster.

 

Whoever she is.

[eball]

I'll agree that Tampa's smallish D is susceptible to the power running game.  However, I'm concerned about WM's penchant for bouncing stuff outside instead of taking the 2-4 yards he could get back banging it between tackles.  Against Tampa's incredible pursuit McGahee won't be getting many yards bouncing it outside and won't wear down the D as much either.  I don't see our running game being successful this week unless Willis changes his game a little bit.  He'll see 7 in the box most of the game, so if he runs where the play is designed I see him eventually having some success as the D gets worn down.

441787[/snapback]

that's a good point, and i'll bet the coaches are making it to him as well. have faith, my brother.

[Lothar]

Another point with regard to how well Tampa's defense played against the Vikes supposedly dominant O, Matt Birk is out for the year and was replaced by a pretty non-descript center - as well, Minnesota also had a 1st or 2nd year left guard - both guys were overwhelmed by the interior of the Tampa line. Culpepper looked bad because pressure form inside gave him zero time on several plays. I don't think Tice and Co. adequately adjusted to this issue throughout much of the game. Gawd, I love our coaches when I compare em to some of these cleetuses.

[Lori]

Gawd, I love our coaches when I compare em to some of these cleetuses.

442018[/snapback]

Or to some of our earlier cleetuses, right?

[The Dean]

Many thanks also for some great analysis.

 

I tend toward being one who emphasizes systems and that the running of them correctly will eventually make the difference. Yet, in this case it seems that not only are these teams closely matched in terms of level of performance, but they also are closely matched in terms of how they perform (great D and learning O).

 

I think this game more than most will be determined by:

 

1. Individual efforts which simply make plays,

 

2. Dumb luck in terms of how this oddly shaped ball bounces and the refs make stuipid calls or non-calls.

 

My hope is that the Bills simply have more playmakers in terms of D performers like Spikes, Sam Adams and Vincent on D, McGee and Clements on returns. and eventually WM on O and it will be the difference.

 

How the ball bounces we will just have to see but that is what makes the game interesting.

441366[/snapback]

 

I think the proof of how good Lori's post is becomes apparent when you see the length of FFS' post. She just didn't leave ya much, Sunny...that's not very nice!

[AKC]

-- brian griese puts up great stats in the WC offense, but also manages to commit huge turnovers at the most inopportune moments.  the bills' D are now certified ballhawks -- not the best matchup for the bucs.

 

441444[/snapback]

 

It's true that Griese has difficulty when forced to think ASAP, and that makes me tend to find this a match that overall favors us because the QB situation is a wash-

 

after all, both teams will field QBs who are likely to play like rookies.

[R. Rich]

REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECORD: Tampa Bay leads, 5-2. Weird factoid: Tampa Bay has never played a regular-season game in Rich/Ralph Wilson Stadium; 2009 will mark their first visit to Orchard Park since a 17-6 Bills win in the 1977 preseason....

 

PLAYOFF RECORD: none

 

LAST MEETING: November 26, 2000 - Tampa Bay 31, Buffalo 17

Frank Middleton.

 

Frank #*%$ing Middleton.

 

Despite losing CB Antoine Winfield to a season-ending shoulder injury the week before, the 7-4 Bills were on a four-game winning streak and solidly in the hunt for a playoff berth on their inaugural visit to Raymond James Stadium. The defense set the tone early, forcing three 3-and-outs and sacking Bucs QB Shaun King 4 times in the first quarter alone. 2 1/2 of those sacks were credited to Sam Cowart, who was having a monster game - so Bucs RG Middleton apparently figured if he couldn't block Cowart, he'd come up with another way to stop him. In one of the most blatant, gutless cheapshots I've ever seen, Middleton dove into Cowart's lower leg from behind while he was engaged with another lineman. The resulting high ankle sprain not only put Cowart on the shelf for the rest of the season, it probably cost the Bills a playoff spot and head coach Wade Phillips his job.

 

The Bills also lost FS Keion Carpenter and OLB Sam Rogers for the season in that game, but hung tough until a 73-yard punt return TD by Karl Williams broke the game open in the fourth quarter. (That play wasn't without its share of controversy, either. LB Jay Foreman had his jersey practically ripped off on the play; a flag was thrown, but following a referees' conference the flag was picked up and the TD allowed to stand.)

 

I don't hate players on opposing teams, not even Miami... but I hate Frank Middleton. Indeed, his presence on the Oakland roster in Super Bowl XXXVII was enough to make me cheer for the Bucs (and against my childhood-favorite Raiders) that night. If Middleton never plays another game in the league, that'll be just fine with me.

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BUCCANEERS OVERVIEW

OFFENSE:

This is a team still in transition after a disappointing 5-11 season in 2004. Jon Gruden managed to win a Super Bowl with the players he inherited from Tony Dungy, but switching to Gru's preferred West Coast scheme has meant an almost complete turnover of the roster since then - tackle Kenyatta Walker and RBs Mike Alstott, Michael Pittman, and Jameel Cook are the only offensive players left from that season.

 

QB Brian Griese is at his best in the West Coast system; he set a team record with a QB rating of 97.5 last season, and his 69.3% completion percentage led the league. With the offseason departure of former starter Brad Johnson, Chris Simms and Luke McCown (acquired from Cleveland) are the backups.

Ike Hilliard and Joey Galloway give Griese a crafty pair of vets to throw to, but Michael Clayton is the first option (and a future Pro Bowler) - his 80 catches and 1193 yards led all rookie WRs last year. At TE, Jet castoff Anthony Becht is a better blocker than catcher, but choosing Alex Smith in the draft - yes, the other Alex Smith - is already paying dividends. At this point, Becht/Smith could potentially be a serious upgrade from last year's tandem of Ken Dilger/Rickey Dudley.

 

Flashy rookie RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams is another immediate upgrade, and a badly needed one at that - the Tampa Bay running game was dreadful last season. Their 93.1 yds/game average ranked 29th in the league; only San Fran, Miami, and Oakland were worse. Unfortunately for Williams and Griese, though, the offensive line didn't receive similar attention. They gave up a total of 44 sacks in 2004 (including 26 on Griese in his 11 games) and they're depending on a former UDFA/practice squad guy, Anthony Davis, to man the all-important LT spot. To make matters worse, LG Matt Stinchcomb is currently listed as questionable on the injury report. His probable replacement, rookie 4th-round pick Dan Buenning, will eventually push Stinchcomb out of the lineup anyway, but I'm not sure they wanted to have to make that move this early in the season. RT Kenyatta Walker, while no longer in danger of being cut, has never lived up to his lofty #1-pick status. (And to think, we could have had Walker instead of Nate Clements...)

Anything less than four sacks and a couple of takeaways by the Bills defense would be a disappointment.

 

DEFENSE:

Unlike the revamped offense, the Buc D is stacked with experienced vets. Seven starters (and ten players overall) remain from their Super Bowl team. They may be a couple of years older and a step slower now, but don't kid yourselves - Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks are still damn good players. Former first-round pick DT Chris Hovan wore out his welcome in Minnesota, but word is he's fitting in well next to 'Booger' McFarland. Their LB depth took a hit when projected starter Jeff Gooch went on IR; Ryan Nece takes his place. (We'll see if Nece is as big a hitter as his Hall of Fame dad, Ronnie Lott.) Shelton Quarles keeps pluggin' along at MLB. Brian Kelly and Ronde Barber form a nasty duo at CB, and Super Bowl MVP Dexter Jackson returns at FS.

 

Defensive mastermind (and onetime Bills LB coach) Monte Kiffin is in charge of the scheme - Gruden mostly keeps his hands off the defense, because he realizes Kiffin knows what he's doing. Tom Clements vs. Kiffin should make for an interesting chess match. Losman is going to have to be prepared to just get rid of the ball when he has to - try to force one too many throws against this defense, and Brooks, Barber, and Kelly all have the potential to step in front of a receiver and take the ball the other way for six.

 

SPECIAL TEAMS:

Matt Bryant beat out Todd France to win the kicking job, but I'm guessing Gruden's still keeping an eye on the waiver wire. Former Steeler Josh Miller is a solid punter. I was going to tell you how underrated KR Torrie Cox is - despite not taking one back for a TD, his 26.2 yds/return average last season ranked right up there with Eddie Drummond and Terrence McGee -  but a suspicion-of-DUI arrest late Monday night puts his status for this game in doubt. If Cox is suspended/cut/in jail or otherwise unavailable, backup RB Earnest Graham or even Joey Galloway might be returning kicks for them. The kick/punt coverage teams are mediocre at best.

 

EDIT: ATBNG pointed out that Josh Bidwell (former Packer), not Josh Miller, is the Tampa punter. Brainfreeze on my part; sorry about that. On the field, the 6-3, 220lb. Bidwell has a bigger leg than Miller, but has had problems with consistency in the past.

Good personal story - Bidwell spent what would have been his rookie year in Green Bay battling testicular cancer, and seems to have beaten it. His Packers teammates voted him the team's recipient of the Ed Block Courage Award in 2000, and he continues to speak out on the subject, even teaching high school health classes in his native Oregon....

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OUTLOOK

Two middle-of-the-road offenses with young players in key positions. Two great defenses. The current line has Tampa Bay favored by 2.5; given the home-field advantage, the oddsmakers see this game as practically even. I agree... mostly. The difference? I see a definite advantage for the Bills special teams in this game, and I think that ends up being the difference.

 

Bills, 17-13.

 

Links:

NFL.com - Buccaneers roster

NFL.com - injury report

Ourlads.com - Buccaneers depth chart

441015[/snapback]

 

 

Well said.

 

I will touch on your mention of Alex Smith:

 

I thought Smith was one of the best offensive players in this year's draft, and getting both Cadillac and Smith was a nice move to bolster an offense that really needed the youth and talent in those areas. Smith, much like Roscoe Parrish, relies more on speed and quickness off the snap to get a clean release off the line (as he's not a physically imposing TE), and it works well for him. He runs good routes, has very good hands, and has a good feel for the game. Becht is a better blocker than Smith @ this point (Smith was never thought of as a solid blocker), but Smith is by far the better receiving TE of the two. He could pose a problem for our D.

[Ralonzo]

It's true that Griese has difficulty when forced to think ASAP, and that makes me tend to find this a match that overall favors us because the QB situation is a wash-

 

after all, both teams will field QBs who are likely to play like rookies.

442100[/snapback]

 

It's not that Griese is a rookie who makes rookie mistakes... he just vapor-locks at times. He's like the Grant Ledyard of quarterbacks. Solid most of the time, but makes a brain-dead mistake or two a game that has an effect on the outcome more often than it should. He seems to make maybe a few more of those mistakes than Bledsoe, a whole lot less than Plummer, and about the same as Brady playing against Miami in their trick-or-treat orange abominations