Bills - Buccaneers overview

[Lori]

REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECORD: Tampa Bay leads, 5-2. Weird factoid: Tampa Bay has never played a regular-season game in Rich/Ralph Wilson Stadium; 2009 will mark their first visit to Orchard Park since a 17-6 Bills win in the 1977 preseason....

 

PLAYOFF RECORD: none

 

LAST MEETING: November 26, 2000 - Tampa Bay 31, Buffalo 17

Frank Middleton.

 

Frank #*%$ing Middleton.

 

Despite losing CB Antoine Winfield to a season-ending shoulder injury the week before, the 7-4 Bills were on a four-game winning streak and solidly in the hunt for a playoff berth on their inaugural visit to Raymond James Stadium. The defense set the tone early, forcing three 3-and-outs and sacking Bucs QB Shaun King 4 times in the first quarter alone. 2 1/2 of those sacks were credited to Sam Cowart, who was having a monster game - so Bucs RG Middleton apparently figured if he couldn't block Cowart, he'd come up with another way to stop him. In one of the most blatant, gutless cheapshots I've ever seen, Middleton dove into Cowart's lower leg from behind while he was engaged with another lineman. The resulting high ankle sprain not only put Cowart on the shelf for the rest of the season, it probably cost the Bills a playoff spot and head coach Wade Phillips his job.

 

The Bills also lost FS Keion Carpenter and OLB Sam Rogers for the season in that game, but hung tough until a 73-yard punt return TD by Karl Williams broke the game open in the fourth quarter. (That play wasn't without its share of controversy, either. LB Jay Foreman had his jersey practically ripped off on the play; a flag was thrown, but following a referees' conference the flag was picked up and the TD allowed to stand.)

 

I don't hate players on opposing teams, not even Miami... but I hate Frank Middleton. Indeed, his presence on the Oakland roster in Super Bowl XXXVII was enough to make me cheer for the Bucs (and against my childhood-favorite Raiders) that night. If Middleton never plays another game in the league, that'll be just fine with me.

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BUCCANEERS OVERVIEW

OFFENSE:

This is a team still in transition after a disappointing 5-11 season in 2004. Jon Gruden managed to win a Super Bowl with the players he inherited from Tony Dungy, but switching to Gru's preferred West Coast scheme has meant an almost complete turnover of the roster since then - tackle Kenyatta Walker and RBs Mike Alstott, Michael Pittman, and Jameel Cook are the only offensive players left from that season.

 

QB Brian Griese is at his best in the West Coast system; he set a team record with a QB rating of 97.5 last season, and his 69.3% completion percentage led the league. With the offseason departure of former starter Brad Johnson, Chris Simms and Luke McCown (acquired from Cleveland) are the backups.

Ike Hilliard and Joey Galloway give Griese a crafty pair of vets to throw to, but Michael Clayton is the first option (and a future Pro Bowler) - his 80 catches and 1193 yards led all rookie WRs last year. At TE, Jet castoff Anthony Becht is a better blocker than catcher, but choosing Alex Smith in the draft - yes, the other Alex Smith - is already paying dividends. At this point, Becht/Smith could potentially be a serious upgrade from last year's tandem of Ken Dilger/Rickey Dudley.

 

Flashy rookie RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams is another immediate upgrade, and a badly needed one at that - the Tampa Bay running game was dreadful last season. Their 93.1 yds/game average ranked 29th in the league; only San Fran, Miami, and Oakland were worse. Unfortunately for Williams and Griese, though, the offensive line didn't receive similar attention. They gave up a total of 44 sacks in 2004 (including 26 on Griese in his 11 games) and they're depending on a former UDFA/practice squad guy, Anthony Davis, to man the all-important LT spot. To make matters worse, LG Matt Stinchcomb is currently listed as questionable on the injury report. His probable replacement, rookie 4th-round pick Dan Buenning, will eventually push Stinchcomb out of the lineup anyway, but I'm not sure they wanted to have to make that move this early in the season. RT Kenyatta Walker, while no longer in danger of being cut, has never lived up to his lofty #1-pick status. (And to think, we could have had Walker instead of Nate Clements...)

Anything less than four sacks and a couple of takeaways by the Bills defense would be a disappointment.

 

DEFENSE:

Unlike the revamped offense, the Buc D is stacked with experienced vets. Seven starters (and ten players overall) remain from their Super Bowl team. They may be a couple of years older and a step slower now, but don't kid yourselves - Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks are still damn good players. Former first-round pick DT Chris Hovan wore out his welcome in Minnesota, but word is he's fitting in well next to 'Booger' McFarland. Their LB depth took a hit when projected starter Jeff Gooch went on IR; Ryan Nece takes his place. (We'll see if Nece is as big a hitter as his Hall of Fame dad, Ronnie Lott.) Shelton Quarles keeps pluggin' along at MLB. Brian Kelly and Ronde Barber form a nasty duo at CB, and Super Bowl MVP Dexter Jackson returns at FS.

 

Defensive mastermind (and onetime Bills LB coach) Monte Kiffin is in charge of the scheme - Gruden mostly keeps his hands off the defense, because he realizes Kiffin knows what he's doing. Tom Clements vs. Kiffin should make for an interesting chess match. Losman is going to have to be prepared to just get rid of the ball when he has to - try to force one too many throws against this defense, and Brooks, Barber, and Kelly all have the potential to step in front of a receiver and take the ball the other way for six.

 

SPECIAL TEAMS:

Matt Bryant beat out Todd France to win the kicking job, but I'm guessing Gruden's still keeping an eye on the waiver wire. Former Steeler Josh Miller is a solid punter. I was going to tell you how underrated KR Torrie Cox is - despite not taking one back for a TD, his 26.2 yds/return average last season ranked right up there with Eddie Drummond and Terrence McGee - but a suspicion-of-DUI arrest late Monday night puts his status for this game in doubt. If Cox is suspended/cut/in jail or otherwise unavailable, backup RB Earnest Graham or even Joey Galloway might be returning kicks for them. The kick/punt coverage teams are mediocre at best.

 

EDIT: ATBNG pointed out that Josh Bidwell (former Packer), not Josh Miller, is the Tampa punter. Brainfreeze on my part; sorry about that. On the field, the 6-3, 220lb. Bidwell has a bigger leg than Miller, but has had problems with consistency in the past.

Good personal story - Bidwell spent what would have been his rookie year in Green Bay battling testicular cancer, and seems to have beaten it. His Packers teammates voted him the team's recipient of the Ed Block Courage Award in 2000, and he continues to speak out on the subject, even teaching high school health classes in his native Oregon....

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OUTLOOK

Two middle-of-the-road offenses with young players in key positions. Two great defenses. The current line has Tampa Bay favored by 2.5; given the home-field advantage, the oddsmakers see this game as practically even. I agree... mostly. The difference? I see a definite advantage for the Bills special teams in this game, and I think that ends up being the difference.

 

Bills, 17-13.

 

Links:

NFL.com - Buccaneers roster

NFL.com - injury report

Ourlads.com - Buccaneers depth chart

[Ralonzo]

Now this is the kind of post you never see on the other teams' message boards.

 

Another great job!

[Beerball]

Great, thanks Lori!

[sillyeddie]

Great post Lori. I agree with you, but I'm thinking more like 24-13 Bills.

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

Talk football to me...

[BeastOfTheEast]

Very good thread!

 

I see the Bills winning the game 16-10.

 

Moorman will be back to his usual self and pin the Bucs deep numerous times as we win the battle of field position and, more importantly, the battle on the scoreboard.

[Kelly the Dog]

Thanks as usual, Lori. Great stuff.

[Lothar]

Great job Lori.

 

The wild card in all this is that Losman will be playing a top notch veteran D on the road for the first time in his career. This is one game I think Malarkey plays it close to the vest on offense - even if we punt 5 straight times, I don't think he lets Losman freewheel, even as much as the Texan game. I like our chances against their offense, and as you mentioned, special teams may be our best opportunity to break off a big play.

[Mikie2times]

Very good post, IMO this game comes down to special teams and turnovers.

 

If it's a straight turnover free game I think special teams will put us over the top. But with the way these two defenses match up against the offenses you have to think a couple turnovers could play a major role. I just don't see many sustained drives for either team. Both teams will really need to shorten the field in order to be successful.

 

I like our chances in a low scoring slugfest.

 

Bills 13

Bucs 9

[Bill from NYC]

Just superb, thank you Lori.

Your vivid description brings back ugly memories of the "Middleton" game.

The Bills were crushing them, and then started dropping one by one.

I know that Cowart was one of your favorites, and for good reason. The guy was all over the field; just a great LB.

A friend of mine is a jests fan. He knows his fotball, but never got to see the true Sam Cowart that we Bills fans recall.

 

Thanks again!

[Albany,n.y.]

Great analysis, I thought I was reading something professionally written.

One minor correction, Josh Bidwell is their punter, Josh Miller is on the Patriots.

[cåblelady]

You ROCK! Lori.

[Coach Tuesday]

Great job Lori.

 

The wild card in all this is that Losman will be playing a top notch veteran D on the road for the first time in his career.  This is one game I think Malarkey plays it close to the vest on offense - even if we punt 5 straight times, I don't think he lets Losman freewheel, even as much as the Texan game.  I like our chances against their offense, and as you mentioned, special teams may be our best opportunity to break off a big play.

441072[/snapback]

 

This is how I see it unfolding, too. My prediction is that the Bills have a frustrating first half on offense, and the key will be getting to halftime without making too many mistakes/turnovers. I predict the Bucs lead 10-3 or 13-3 at the half, but IT WON'T BE OVER. The reason I'm predicting this is that the Bucs D represents a unique challenge for JP & Co:

 

The Bucs play almost exclusively a Cover-2, which has a number of key characteristics. They'll start the game with two safeties back, meaning that there are only very small, tight windows to throw the ball, if any. The key to their execution is their d-line's ability to handle the other team's o-line - create pressure and stop the run - without any help (although they love the occasional corner or safety blitz to mix things up). And, frankly, against anything but a great line, the Bucs' d-line usually wins the battle. That means a lot of 2nd and 3rd and VERY long - expect Willis to get stuffed for no gain/loss of a yard or two on first downs throughout the first half, which will allow the Bucs safeties to stay back, which will make passing extremely difficult. JP really needs to just be patient and not force anything - play the field position game until our D or special teams can make something big happen.

 

On offense, the Bucs are much more savvy and sophisticated than the Texans were. Knowing Gruden, he's been studying film on the Bills O all week, and he'll pick up on the fact that the Texans actually were able to gain positive yardage when they ran their piece-of-crap designed rollout plays, which let Carr focus on half the field and throw to his tight ends. Gruden LOVES these plays and he LOVES his tight ends, and he'll realize that the key to the Bucs' success will be their ability to get our linebackers running away from the line of scrimmage and having to focus on tight ends and backs in coverage. Expect a TON of short-range passes towards the middle of the field to soften up our linebackers into "coverage" mode, which will in turn open up running lanes for Cadillac. The key to the game for the Bills D is their ability to stay disciplined and not overpursue - especially at linebacker. This will be tough for our D, IMO, but if they stay patient they can make some things happen against a weak Bucs o-line.

 

In all honesty, there are two ways this game can unfold - the Bills can be getting whooped by halftime, in that case I see the score 19-6 Bucs. However, if the Bills stay patient, disciplined, and mistake-free, I see them pulling off a squeaker, 16-13.

[Fan in San Diego]

Best post I've read in awhile. Great Job Lori ! Thanks for sharing. That wierd factoid. How is it that they have played 7 times but never in Buffalo ?

[scribo]

Outstanding work, Lori. You certainly beat the Buff Snooze and the D&C in scouting the opponent. This really will help us in better knowing what to expect Sunday.

 

Thanks, Lori!

[BarkLessWagMore]

Great analysis Lori! My two cents on the Middleton incident. I was at that game with my wife and daughter. My brother who lives in Tampa had got us tix in the upper deck. I was there with my Cowart jersey on. He was unquestionably my favorite back then. And I got to see him play the quarter of his life. Besides the sacks, he was simply all over the field. They had no answer for him, other than that cheap shot. Which I agree was among the worst I have seen in many years of watching football. Sam was from Florida and the 15 rows of the section next to us was his family and friends, all in their jerseys. It was a pretty cool sight. Between that injury and the achilles he blew out against the Saints, he was never the same player. Injury free, he may have been headed to Canton. Just goes to show how football careers can change in literally one play.

 

I also remember the punt return. While the flag did get picked up, I have to add that our special teams at that time were "coached" by none other than Ronnie Jones. Still perhaps the worst positional coach in the history of the NFL, and that's saying something.

[BuffOrange]

Somebody definitely needs to pull a Tonya Harding on Middleton's knee caps.

I lost a lot of respect for Tony Dungy when he backed his player on that Bush League crap.

[34-78-83]

Thanks for the breakdown Lori.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Many thanks also for some great analysis.

 

I tend toward being one who emphasizes systems and that the running of them correctly will eventually make the difference. Yet, in this case it seems that not only are these teams closely matched in terms of level of performance, but they also are closely matched in terms of how they perform (great D and learning O).

 

I think this game more than most will be determined by:

 

1. Individual efforts which simply make plays,

 

2. Dumb luck in terms of how this oddly shaped ball bounces and the refs make stuipid calls or non-calls.

 

My hope is that the Bills simply have more playmakers in terms of D performers like Spikes, Sam Adams and Vincent on D, McGee and Clements on returns. and eventually WM on O and it will be the difference.

 

How the ball bounces we will just have to see but that is what makes the game interesting.

[Fan in Chicago]

Considering all that has been posted, I believe that if we win the turnover battle and not stall in the red zone (FGs are okay), we will kick the living daylights out of TB.