The 2006 Buffalo Bills Playoff Tracker

[Typical TBD Guy]

I'll be bumping this every Monday with updates.

 

As of 9/10/05...

 

1. Patriots: 1-0

2. Bills: 0-0

2. Jets: 0-0

2. Dolphins: 0-0

2. Steelers: 0-0

2. Ravens: 0-0

2. Bengals: 0-0

2. Browns: 0-0

2. Colts: 0-0

2. Titans: 0-0

2. Jaguars: 0-0

2. Texans: 0-0

2. Chargers: 0-0

2. Chiefs: 0-0

2. Broncos: 0-0

16. Raiders: 0-1

 

Woo-hoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's go BUFFALO!!!!

[SDS]

good idea... hopefully it is meaningful after 8 games!

[San-O]

I'll be bumping this every Monday with updates.

 

As of 9/10/05...

 

1. Patriots: 1-0

2. Bills: 0-0

2. Jets: 0-0

2. Dolphins: 0-0

2. Steelers: 0-0

2. Ravens: 0-0

2. Bengals: 0-0

2. Browns: 0-0

2. Colts: 0-0

2. Titans: 0-0

2. Jaguars: 0-0

2. Texans: 0-0

2. Chargers: 0-0

2. Chiefs: 0-0

2. Broncos: 0-0

16. Raiders: 0-1

 

Woo-hoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's go BUFFALO!!!!                  

435867[/snapback]

 

 

I am losing it. The IQ on this board is slipping daily.

 

Would you respond to this post:

 

Beating Pittsburgh last year did not mean playoffs

[Typical TBD Guy]

I am losing it.  The IQ on this board is slipping daily.

 

Would you respond to this post:

 

Beating Pittsburgh last year did not mean playoffs

435942[/snapback]

 

Let's stop beating this dead horse, please. That was last season. This thread is about this season.

[Typical TBD Guy]

Bumpity-bump...it's the end of Week 1 in the AFC:

 

1. Bills: 1-0

1. Patriots: 1-0

1. Dolphins: 1-0

1. Steelers: 1-0

1. Bengals: 1-0

1. Colts: 1-0

1. Jaguars: 1-0

1. Chiefs: 1-0

9. Jets: 0-1

9. Ravens: 0-1

9. Browns: 0-1

9. Titans: 0-1

9. Texans: 0-1

9. Chargers: 0-1

9. Broncos: 0-1

9. Raiders: 0-1

 

Interesting fact I heard today: 11 of the 12 teams who made the playoffs last season won their first game (only the Colts didn't).

[Typical TBD Guy]

Bump, as of the end of Week 2:

 

***NOTE: I won't bother differentiating between ties until Week 5 or so.

 

1. Steelers: 2-0 (DL, 2-way tie)

1. Bengals: 2-0 (DL, 2-way tie)

1. Colts: 2-0 (DL)

1. Chiefs: 2-0 (DL)

5. Bills: 1-1 (DL, 4-way tie)

5. Patriots: 1-1 (DL, 4-way tie)

5. Jets: 1-1 (DL, 4-way tie)

5. Dolphins: 1-1 (DL, 4-way tie)

5. Browns: 1-1 (WC#2, 7-way tie)

5. Jaguars: 1-1 (WC#2, 7-way tie)

5. Titans: 1-1 (WC#2, 7-way tie)

5. Broncos: 1-1 (WC#2, 7-way tie)

13. Ravens: 0-2

13. Texans: 0-2

13. Raiders: 0-2

13. Chargers: 0-2

 

Who we should root for in Week 3, starting with the obvious:

 

Bills (H) over Falcons

Panthers over Dolphins (H)

Bears (H) over Bengals

Eagles (H) over Raiders

Rams (H) over Titans

Giants over Chargers (H)

Steelers (H) over Patriots

Jags over Jets (H)

 

And the less obvious, with my own preference:

 

Colts (H) over Browns

Chiefs over Broncos (H)

[Typical TBD Guy]

bada-bump:

 

1. Bengals: 3-0

1. Colts: 3-0

3. Chiefs: 2-0

4. Patriots: 2-1

4. Dolphins: 2-1

4. Steelers: 2-1

4. Jaguars: 2-1

8. Broncos: 1-1

9. Bills: 1-2

9. Jets: 1-2

9. Browns: 1-2

9. Titans: 1-2

9. Chargers: 1-2

14. Texans: 0-2

14. Ravens: 0-2

16. Raiders: 0-3

 

Who to root for this week:

Tonight:

Chiefs over Broncos (H)

This Sunday, 1pm games:

Bills over Saints (H)

Texans over Bengals (H)

Broncos over Jaguars (H)

Colts over Titans (H)

Chargers over Patriots (H)

This Sunday, 4 pm games:

Ravens (H) over Jets

Cowboys over Raiders (H)

Eagles over Chiefs (H)

[nick in* england]

I like this thread a lot. Keep it up.

[Typical TBD Guy]

Bump, end of Week 4 for the AFC, with tie breakers now in effect:

 

DL1. Colts: 4-0

DL2. Bengals: 4-0

DL3. Broncos: 3-1

DL4. Dolphins: 2-1

WC1: Steelers: 2-1

WC2: Chargers: 2-2

7. Chiefs: 2-2

8. Jaguars: 2-2

9. Patriots: 2-2

10. Ravens: 1-2

11. Browns: 1-2

12. Jets: 1-3

13. Bills: 1-3

14. Titans: 1-3

15. Raiders: 1-3

16. Texans: 0-3

 

Playoff Race Analysis: Of the current top 6, I expect the Broncos and Dolphins to fall, with the Chiefs and Patriots taking their place. Bills need to sweep their next 3 games (vs. Fins, vs. Jets, and @ Raiders) before anyone - including me - can take them seriously again as a playoff contender.

 

Who to root for in Week 5:

Bills (H) over Fins

Lions (H) over Ravens

Bears over Browns (H)

Falcons (H) over Pats

Bucs over Jets (H)

Texans (H) over Titans

49ers (H) over Colts

Foreskins over Broncos (H)

Bengals over Jags (H)

Steelers over Chargers (H)

[Ghost of BiB]

Who to root for in Week 5:

Bills (H) over Fins

Lions (H) over Ravens

Bears over Browns (H)

Falcons (H) over Pats

Bucs over Jets (H)

Texans (H) over Titans

49ers (H) over Colts

Foreskins over Broncos (H)

Bengals over Jags (H)

Steelers over Chargers (H)

 

I'm holding my breath.

[Johnny]

Bump, end of Week 4 for the AFC, with tie breakers now in effect:

 

DL1. Colts: 4-0

DL2. Bengals: 4-0

DL3. Broncos: 3-1

DL4. Dolphins: 2-1

WC1: Steelers: 2-1

WC2: Chargers: 2-2

7. Chiefs: 2-2

8. Jaguars: 2-2

9. Patriots: 2-2

10. Ravens: 1-2

11. Browns: 1-2

12. Jets: 1-3

13. Bills: 1-3

14. Titans: 1-3

15. Raiders: 1-3

16. Texans: 0-3

 

Playoff Race Analysis: Of the current top 6, I expect the Broncos and Dolphins to fall, with the Chiefs and Patriots taking their place. Bills need to sweep their next 3 games (vs. Fins, vs. Jets, and @ Raiders) before anyone - including me - can take them seriously again as a playoff contender.

 

Who to root for in Week 5:

Bills (H) over Fins

Lions (H) over Ravens

Bears over Browns (H)

Falcons (H) over Pats

Bucs over Jets (H)

Texans (H) over Titans

49ers (H) over Colts

Foreskins over Broncos (H)

Bengals over Jags (H)

Steelers over Chargers (H)

463510[/snapback]

 

 

hmmm...cant see the dolphins falling yet not to their own credit but mularkeys brilliant 4th quarter benching of Losman........Broncos really impressed me with key injuries on defense and winning on east coast after a monday night, they stay up there the whole way to get their division, ...........Kansas City let a pieced together quarterback tear them up mainly cause a mr obvious option, Terrell Owens, was left wide open a ridiculous amount of times and sure it took mcnaab a few bad passes to finally connect but it wasnt too late to shore up an 18 point deficit......too many pass defense problems in kansas city and with the bengals playing well kc is my early choice to miss the playoffs

[stuckincincy]

I'm holding my breath.

463533[/snapback]

 

I'm holding my skull.

[Typical TBD Guy]

posts that go bump in the night...end of Week 5 update:

 

DL1. Colts: 5-0

DL2. Broncos: 4-1

DL3. Bengals: 4-1

DL4. Patriots: 3-2

WC1. Steelers: 3-1

WC2. Jaguars: 3-2

7. Chiefs: 2-2

8. Dolphins: 2-2

9. Browns: 2-2

10. Bills: 2-3

11. Titans: 2-3

12. Chargers: 2-3

13. Jets: 2-3

14. Ravens: 1-3

15. Raiders: 1-3

16. Texans: 0-4

 

Playoff Race Analysis: If we take care of the Jets, we will be 2 favorable Week 6 outcomes from holding the AFCE division lead and 4 favorable Week 6 outcomes from holding the final wild-card spot.

 

As for the other teams, I still can't imagine a postseason without the Colts, Pats, and Steelers. The Bengals are a bit overrated, but their remaining schedule virtually guarantees a wild-card spot. Some people like the Broncos, but I expect them to fall late in the season (like they normally do) once they have to start playing their division rivals on the road. I still like the Chiefs and Chargers, and so I think one of these two will be our main competitors for the final wild-card slot if we can't compete with the Pats for the division title. Browns and Dolphins will be good in the future, but not this season. As for the Jags, I have no idea. If they beat the Steelers this Sunday, I'll start giving them more respect.

 

Week 6 games to watch and who to root for:

 

Sunday, 1pm games:

Bucs (H) over Dolphins

Redskins over Chiefs (H)

Ravens (H) over Browns

Steelers (H) over Jaguars

 

Sunday, 4pm games:

Bills (H) over Jets...yes, it's obvious

Broncos (H) over Patriots

[Typical TBD Guy]

You guys are going to like this! Standings as of Week 6, Sunday, 8pm, with playoff tiebreakers all in effect:

 

DL1. Colts: 6-0 ----EDITED AFTER MNF GAME

DL2. Broncos: 5-1

DL3. Bengals: 5-1

DL4. Bills: 3-3

WC1. Jaguars: 4-2

WC2. Chiefs: 3-2

7. Steelers: 3-2

8. Chargers: 3-3

9. Patriots: 3-3

10. Ravens: 2-3

11. Dolphins: 2-3

12. Browns: 2-3

13. Titans: 2-4

14. Jets: 2-4

15. Raiders: 1-4

16. Texans: 0-5 --- EDITED AFTER SNF GAME

 

I’ll update again this week with a full list of Week 7's relevant games and a look ahead at the rest of our season schedule.

 

If we win our next 2 games, we are for real.

[Typical TBD Guy]

Week 7 schedule, and who to root for:

 

Sunday, 1pm:

Lions over Browns (H)

Texans (H) over Colts

Chiefs over Dolphins (H) - AFC East game, though note that Chiefs are also ahead of us in W.C. race

Bengals (H) over Steelers - Steelers are ahead of us in W.C. race

Eagles (H) over Chargers

 

Sunday, 4:15pm:

Bills over Raiders (H) -

Giants (H) over Broncos

Bears (H) over Ravens

Cards (H) over Titans

 

MNF:

Falcons (H) over Jets - AFC East game

 

Now here is the rest of our schedule, by week:

 

7: @ Oakland

8: @ NE

10: KC

11: @ SD

12: Carolina

13: @ Miami

14: NE

15: Denver

16: @ Cincy

17: @ Jets

 

I've divided the season into 3 main categories: the winnable away games (weeks 7, 13, 17), the difficult away games (weeks 8, 11, 16), and the home games (10, 12, 14, 15). The fate of our season rests largely on how we perform in our home games - all 4 winnable, yet all 4 against worthy opponents who each will be, at the very least, competing for the playoffs down to the final week.

 

Historically speaking (since 1990 when the NFL first implemented the 12 team playoff system), only 3 teams have won 10 games and not made the playoffs (91 Eagles, 91 49ers, 03 Dolphins). Conversely, only 6 teams have won 8 games and still made the playoffs (90 Saints, 91 Jets, 99 Cowboys, 99 Lions, 04 Rams, 04 Vikings). And right in the middle at 9 wins, about 55% of the teams went on to make the playoffs.

 

So my conclusion from all of this? To quote Mr. Fucillo, for this season especially the 12th Man becomes "HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!" We MUST win all 4 home games along with the 3 easier away games (yes, I'm aware that no divisional road game is easy and also that we haven't won in Oakland since 1966 ) if we want to reach the magic number of 10 wins. Lose just 1 of those 7 winnable games, and we then need to "steal" 1 at NE, at SD, or at Cincy... Of course it's also true that 9-7 could win the AFC East this year, and 9-7 could very well secure a wild-card due to our much healthier AFC conference record. But I'd much rather finish 10-6 and not subject ourselves to the whims of the NFL playoff Gods. Agreed?

[Typical TBD Guy]

Playoff standings after Week 7, for those still interested:

 

DL1. Colts: 7-0

DL2. Broncos: 5-2

DL3. Bengals: 5-2

DL4. Patriots: 3-3

WC1. Jaguars: 4-2

WC2. Chiefs: 4-2

7. Steelers: 4-2

8. Bills: 3-4

9. Chargers: 3-4

10. Ravens: 2-4

11. Raiders: 2-4

12. Dolphins: 2-4

13. Browns: 2-4

14. Titans: 2-5

15. Jets: 2-5 --- EDITED AFTER MNF GAME

16. Texans: 0-6

 

Week 8 Schedule w/ Who to Root For:

 

Sunday, 1pm Games:

 

Texans (H) over Browns

Packers over Bengals (H)

Rams (H) over Jags - important to Wild Card race

Titans (H) over Raiders - important to Wild Card race (we now obviously have a tiebreaker issue w/ Raiders despite having 1 more win than them)

 

Sunday, 4pm Games:

 

Saints (H) over Dolphins - important to AFCE division title race

Chargers (H) over Chiefs - important to Wild Card race

Eagles over Broncos (H)

 

SNF:

 

Bills over Patriots (H) 2nd biggest game of the TD Era to date (behind last year's Pittsburgh season finale)

 

MNF:

 

Ravens over Steelers (H) - important to Wild Card race

[Typical TBD Guy]

BUMP, with note that this thread doesn't die until I've crunched all the numbers and realize that the Bills are mathematically out of the playoffs.

 

Playoff standings after 8 weeks (w/ official playoff tiebreakers in effect):

 

DL1. Colts: 7-0

DL2. Broncos: 6-2

DL3. Bengals: 6-2

DL4. Patriots: 4-3

WC1: Steelers: 5-2

WC2: Jaguars: 4-3

7. Chiefs: 4-3

8. Chargers: 4-4

9. Raiders: 3-4

10. Dolphins: 3-4

11. Bills: 3-5

12. Ravens: 2-5

13. Jets: 2-5

14. Browns: 2-5

15. Titans: 2-6

16. Texans: 1-6

 

AFCE division title race note: Division tiebreakers go to common opponent record right after head-to-head record and then division record. So even if the Pats lose to the Colts Monday night, we still would need 1 more Pats loss before we can control our own destiny for the division title.

 

Wild card race analysis: The Jags, Bengals, and Steelers all have pretty easy schedules (ridiculously easy in the case of the Jags) from here on out. So it's not unreasonable to suggest that not only will both wild card spots go to the AFC South and North, but that 10-6 may not be good enough to secure either wild card spot this season. Bad news for the AFC West teams who will be beating each other up, as well as our beloved Bills who are unlikely to finish 8-0

 

Week 9 games and who to root for (assuming that you still want the Bills to compete for the playoffs, as opposed to starting JP sooner and getting his reps in):

Sunday, 1pm games:

Falcons over Dolphins (H) - division title race importance.

Texans over Jags (H) - wild card race importance.

Browns (H) over Titans - better 3rd round draft pick!

Chargers over Jets (H) - division title race importance.

Ravens (H) over Bengals - wild card race importance.

Chiefs (H) over Raiders - I'd rather not play a desperate Chiefs team coming off 2 straight division losses.

Sunday, 4pm game:

Packers (H) over Steelers - wild card race importance.

MNF:

Colts over Patriots (H) - division title race importance.

 

Enjoy your NFL weekend, everybody. At least the Bills can't spoil it with a loss!

[Typical TBD Guy]

Git 'er bumped....standings, end of Week 9, w/ playoff tiebreakers in effect:

 

DL1. Colts: 8-0

DL2. Bengals: 7-2

DL3. Broncos: 6-2

DL4. Patriots: 4-4

WC1: Steelers: 6-2

WC2: Chiefs: 5-3

7. Jaguars: 5-3

8. Chargers: 5-4

9. Raiders: 3-5

10. Bills: 3-5

11. Dolphins: 3-5

12. Browns: 3-5

13. Ravens: 2-6

14. Jets: 2-6

15. Titans: 2-7

16. Texans: 1-7

 

AFCE division title race note: still need 1 more Pats loss before we can control our own destiny again (stupid new division tiebreaker rules...where common opponent record now takes precedence over AFC record ).

 

Wild card race note: 2 games and 4 teams stand between us and the final wild card spot.

 

WEEK 10 SCHEDULE:

Sunday, 1pm games:

Bills (H) over Chiefs - !

Dolphins (H) over Bruschis - !

Ravens over Jags (H) - Wild Card relevance

Texans over Colts (H)

Sunday, 4pm games:

Panthers (H) over Jets - !

Broncos over Raiders (H) - Wild Card relevance

SNF:

Browns over Steelers (H) - Wild Card relevance

AFC BYES: Titans, Bengals, Chargers - note that the SD away game next week will be our 3rd team this season we've had to play coming off a bye (Miami and NE were the other 2). IMO, no team should have to play more or less than 1 game per season against a bye opponent. Have we stumbled upon another anti-Bills conspiracy here???

 

SUNDAY OUTLOOK: I know the "must-win" term tends to get thrown around casually, but this upcoming game is dangerously close to being truly a "must-win" situation. A 6th loss (especially to the Chiefs) would essentially kill our Wild Card dreams. Now couple that outcome with a probable NE win in Miami, and the division title would start looking unattainable with an effective 3-game disadvantage to the Pats.

[Typical TBD Guy]

Tuesday morning bump, playoff standings after 10 full weeks:

 

DL1. Colts: 9-0

DL2. Broncos: 7-2

DL3. Steelers: 7-2

DL4. Patriots: 5-4

WC1: Bengals: 7-2

WC2: Jaguars: 6-3

7. Chargers: 5-4

8. Chiefs: 5-4

9. Bills: 4-5

10. Raiders: 3-6

11. Dolphins: 3-6

12. Browns: 3-6

13. Titans: 2-7

14. Ravens: 2-7

15. Jets: 2-7

16. Texans: 1-8

 

Help needed for division title: 1 Pats loss (not including our Week 14 game against them).

Held needed for first wild card slot: 2 Bengals losses (not including our Week 16 game against them), 2 Jags losses (assuming at least one of them is against an AFC opponent), and 1 Chiefs loss.

Help needed for second wild card slot: 2 Jags losses (assuming at least one of them is against an AFC opponent) and 1 Chiefs loss.

 

Week 11 Schedule:

1pm Sunday games:

Saints over Pats (H)

Titans (H) over Jags

Browns (H) over Fins

Redskins (H) over Raiders

Ravens (H) over Steelers

4pm Sunday games:

Bills over Chargers (H)

Colts over Bengals (H)

Broncos (H) over Jets

SNF:

Texans (H) over Chiefs

 

NOTE FOR THIS SUNDAY'S GAME: Only 5 teams besides the Bills have yet to win a road game - Jets, Texans, Ravens, Cards, and 49ers. Not exactly good company... So aside from the playoff implications of falling further behind the division-leading Pats and of losing a critical 6th game in the Wild Card race (my opinion is that 6 losses eliminates any AFC team for Wild Card contention this year) and of allowing our old AFL rivals (Chargers) to run away from us in the playoff standings, our Bills team also needs this first road win simply for the moral boost. It's going to be pretty tough to justify any playoff talk when you're totally gutless outside your home...

[Typical TBD Guy]

Current playoff standings after Week 12’s conclusion, with tiebreakers in effect (my apologies for forgetting to update last week, though I wonder if anyone actually missed this thread following The Great San Diego Massacre ?):

 

DL1. Colts: 11-0

DL2. Broncos: 9-2

DL3. Bengals: 8-3

DL4. Pats: 6-5

WC1. Jags: 8-3

WC2. Steelers: 7-4

7. Chargers: 7-4

8. Chiefs: 7-4

**Observe the wide gap here**

9. Raiders: 4-7

10. Bills: 4-7

11-16. Not important anymore.

 

Wild Card Race Analysis: There’s not much to analyze here. The best the Bills can finish is 9-7, and I can't envision at least 3 of these 6 teams - Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Jags, Bengals, and Steelers - failing to reach 10 wins. Need I elaborate more? Judging by the poor hits-per-week average of my thread, I’d say no.

 

AFC East Divison Title Analysis: This is by far our best chance to sniff the playoffs. And so this should be all that concerns us in the next 5 weeks. A standings tie with the Pats is possible, so it's worth keeping track of the first 5 division tiebreakers, in order:

 

1. Head-to-head (we're 0-1, and the Pats are 1-0...duh).

2. Divison record (we're 2-1, and the Pats are 2-0)

3. Common opponents record (we’re 3-7, and the Pats are 5-4)

4. AFC record (we're 4-3, and the Pats are 4-4).

5. Strength of victory (we’re at 14-30, which is obviously lower than NE's 29-37)

 

And this is the only weekly schedule worth following here on out:

 

Week 13: Bills @ Fins (1pm Sunday) and Jets @ Pats (4:15pm Sunday)

Week 14: Pats @ Bills (1pm Sunday)

Week 15: Bucs @ Pats (1:30pm Saturday) and Bills @ Broncos (8:30pm Saturday)

Week 16: Bills @ Bengals (1pm Sunday) and Pats @ Jets (9pm Monday)

Week 17: Bills @ Jets (1pm Sunday) and Fins @ Pats (1pm Sunday)

 

For the Bills to win the division at 9-7, we’ll need New England to lose 1 more game (aside from the loss to us in Week 14), but it MUST come against an AFC East division opponent in Week 13, 16, or 17.

 

For the Bills to win the division at 8-8, with our 8th loss coming against the Patriots, we’d of course need the Pats to lose all 4 of their other games.

 

For the Bills to win the division at 8-8, with our 8th loss coming against either the Fins or Jets, we’ll need New England to lose 2 more games along with the Week 14 loss in Buffalo – and they MUST both be against division rivals.

 

For the Bills to win the division at 8-8, with our 1 remaining loss coming against either the Bengals or Broncos, New England’s 2 needed losses can be against anyone.

 

At least for now, I won’t bother breaking down the scenarios of a 7-9 Bills team winning the division. Suffice it to say that, as I noted in an earlier post, no NFL team has made the playoffs with a sub-.500 record since the advent of the 6-team-per-conference playoff format in 1990 (if ever).

 

Got all that? If not, all you need to remember is this 1 fact: the Bills can regain control of their own playoff destiny as early as this Sunday with a New England loss to the Jets. That’s amazingly great news for such an amazingly crappy 4-7 team! Hopefully JP Losman is given this memo. That should fire him up…