Beerball Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 Scouts gives the Bills the edge in all categories except QB and D-line I think the Bills D will take the Texans out of their game early. Much in this game rests on the O-line and JP. If he has time to throw does he make the right decisions? If he doesn't have time to throw does he make the right decisions? Will WM have room to roam? Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this week's matchup between the Texans and Bills. Now they're back with a second look. This will be an extremely difficult early test for the Texans to find out where they are mentally. The last time they took the field in a game with any meaning, they were booed off their home field after getting it handed to them by a Cleveland Browns team that was spiraling out of control and had absolutely nothing to play for. This is a must-win season for fourth year head coach Dom Capers. In watching tape of the last game of the 2004 season, it was very clear that his team quit on him. If the Texans struggle and there are any signs of quitting early on this season, Capers will be lucky to make it to the end of the season. Despite ranking 29th in the NFL last season in sacks allowed (49 total), the Texans did very little to upgrade their offensive line this offseason. The only addition to the starting unit is UFA Victor Riley, a much better run blocker than pass blocker. Riley does not figure to be much of an upgrade in pass protection over Seth Wand, so give offensive coordinator Chris Palmer some credit for re-tooling their offensive system this past offseason. Expect to see David Carr taking shorter 3- and 5-step drops and getting rid of the ball a lot quicker. This should help Carr get in a better rhythm and improve his confidence and completion percentage. The Bills defense finished the 2004 season ranked second overall (seventh vs. the run and third vs. the pass). Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray and the entire Bills defense are one of the more underrated units in the NFL. Expect this unit to pick up right where it left off in 2004. This is a blitz heavy, hard-hitting unit that will come after Carr the minute he steps between the numbers. Look for the Bills to blitz early and often as they try to disrupt the timing of the Texans quick pass offense. Blitzing will also make it very difficult for the Texans and their marginal offensive line to get into a flow in the run game. The biggest concern for the Bills offense right now is the quarterback position. J.P. Losman will be the triggerman early on, but the Bills may not stay with him if he struggles. According to sources in the Bills camp, head coach Mike Mularkey would prefer to go with the veteran Kelly Holcomb, while the front office prefers playing their draft choice Losman. One thing is for certain -- Holcomb clearly outplayed Losman in the preseason, so expect Mularkey to have a short leash on Losman in this game. Nothing frustrates a good defense like ineptitude by an offense, and Mularkey may find the natives getting a little restless should the Bills offense struggle to move the ball through the air. Houston's defense finished the 2004 season ranked a respectable 13th vs. the run. They will be put to the test in this one as they will get a heavy dose of RB Willis McGahee as the Bills offense attempts to take some pressure off of Losman. The Texans have undergone major changes to their linebacker unit this offseason and veterans Jay Foreman and Jamie Sharper are no longer with the team. This is going to be an extremely young unit that will struggle early in the season. The Texans will be geared up to stop the run, so look for Buffalo offensive coordinator Tom Clements to use a lot of different formations, shifts and motion in their run game as to confuse the young Texans linebacker core. For the Texans to have any chance to pull an upset here, RB Domanick Davis is going to have to carry the load. While MLB London Fletcher is excellent in run support, he can be a liability at times in coverage. Look for Palmer to try to get Davis isolated on Fletcher in man coverage. Davis, who has soft hands and runs good routes, is an excellent safety valve receiver coming out of the backfield. He is shifty and can make the Bills linebackers miss in space. Davis needs 35-plus touches in this game if Houston is going to pull the upset. The Texans know they don't have the offensive line to physically dominate the front 7 of the Bills. Look for the Texans to try to spread the field offensively and run out of three- and four-receiver packages. This will spread out the Bills linebackers and give Davis more room to operate between the tackles. If the Texans line up with standard personnel (2 RB/2 WR/1 TE), they will be playing right into the hands of the Buffalo fefense. Texans defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is a big believer in zone blitz concepts. The Texans ranked dead last in 2004 in sacks with 24, and they did not have one player with more than six. That said, he knows he needs to get pressure on Losman in this game. Look for the Texans to bring extra pressure in this game via the safety blitz. Nothing bothers a young quarterback more than pressure coming right into his face. They must pick their spots and be disciplined though -- Losman is a good running quarterback capable of picking up first downs with his feet. Special Teams When you talk about special teams, nobody's are more "special" than the Buffalo Bills. They finished 2004 ranked second in kickoff returns, fifth in punt returns, and second in kickoff coverage. Kickoff return man Terrence McGee averaged 26.3 yards per return and had three touchdowns. The punt returning duo of Nate Clements and Jonathan Smith each scored a touchdown. Houston must contain their explosive return units if they have any chance of pulling an upset in this one. Buffalo also has the advantage in the kicking game. Houston PK Kris Brown has been plagued by inconsistency and was only 10 of 17 last season outside of 30 yards. That is a poor percentage for a kicker that has the comforts of Reliant Stadium. Bills PK Rian Lindell was 24 of 28 last season. While his accuracy is solid, he does not have the big leg. That could be a factor if the wind is blowing in off the lake. PT Brian Moorman is one of the best young punters in the NFL and gets the nod over Houston's Chad Stanley. Matchups Buffalo MLB London Fletcher vs. Houston RB Domanick Davis Houston LOT Victor Riley vs. Buffalo RDE Aaron Schobel Buffalo DC Nate Clements vs. Houston WR Andre Johnson Houston DC Dunta Robinson vs. Buffalo WR Eric Moulds Houston OC Steve McKinney vs. NT Sam Adams Scouts' Edge In some ways this game has mismatch written all over it, but the one X-factor that keeps this game closer than maybe some would expect is that Buffalo has an unproven, young quarterback in Losman. Carr on the other hand has shown steady improvement from year to year. He will face one of the best defenses in the NFL this week though, and he must take care of the ball and not give easy opportunities to an offensive unit that will be going through some growing pains. The outcome of this game will ride heavily on which team can run the football the most effectively against eight-man defensive fronts. Buffalo gets the nod here with a more consistent offensive line. This has all the making of a defensive battle or offensive struggle depending on how you want to look at it. Prediction: Bills 17, Texans 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hardy Pyle Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 Do you need to be an ESPN Insider to get this or do they have a webpage? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted September 9, 2005 Author Share Posted September 9, 2005 Do you need to be an ESPN Insider to get this or do they have a webpage? Thanks. 434877[/snapback] It is insider which is why I pasted the contents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 Thanks for posting - I wasn't aware Houston's OL was that bad. I picked the same score yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 These reports are great (and thanks BTW), but they should really stop taking it a level too far by publishing things like: According to sources in the Bills camp, head coach Mike Mularkey would prefer to go with the veteran Kelly Holcomb, while the front office prefers playing their draft choice Losman. There is simply no chance of this being true. It would defy all of their plans as well as the reasoning for parting with Drew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary M Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 These reports are great (and thanks BTW), but they should really stop taking it a level too far by publishing things like: There is simply no chance of this being true. It would defy all of their plans as well as the reasoning for parting with Drew. 434986[/snapback] But his friends cousin knows the guy that sweeps the stands. It has to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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