Is Teflon's 10 Yr. Plan still on target?

[Sound_n_Fury]

The key to the success of this Bills' season will be the ability of Losman to recognize blitz defenses and choose the right antidotal options.  The coaching staff cannot help him with this,  he has to learn it  on his own.  McGahee will not be successful with 8 in the box against him; the defenders must be moved out of position by a QB who can read and react.  That is precisely what DB COULD NOT do. 

 

The Bills record will depend on how soon it all begins to 'click' upstairs with JP.  From what I've seen up to now, that process could take all season.  I don't expect a good record for the Bills until JP experiences his epiphany.

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Totally agree. The party line seems to be that WM can carry the team while JP learns. No RB can carry a team with continual 8-man fronts, especially with this O-line. We'll end up with a lot of 3rd-and-4 situations that JP will have to...repeat, have to...convert to keep the D off the field.

 

Willis needs JP to be "competent" maybe more than we realize...

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Good post FFS. It is certainly not possible to rate TD as 'great" nor "bad." He has been both; great in terms of trades/free agents, and bad in terms of making the playoffs.

I also will not discard the valid point that you raise about the value of the franchise. This matters, particularly to a small market, cold weather franchise like us.

Still, I do have concerns about TD. He continues to draft wrs, rbs and he gave up a ton for a qb. Look, I know that we need talent at skill positions, but this far from negates the fact that our OL still at least appears to suck. After Henry was benched it was OK last year, but we lost a solid if unspectacular LT.  He was replaced by a castoff from a basement team. We had an opportunity to sign a proven LG, but instead opted for a cheaper model; one who may very well be another plodding blob. Our RT has cost us in the neighborhood of 20 mil, and you can find posts on this very page which speak of his "potential." Are you OK with this?

Receivers and qbs may put the proverbial fannies in the seats, but sometimes they suck, ala Josh Reed. In the last few years, we have devoted a 2nd (Reed), a somewhat early 1st (Evans, great pick), and another 2nd (Parrish, who was our first pick). After all of this we have Evans, who I think will be great, and aging Moulds, Reed who sucks, and an injured midget. Throwing to them will be an untested qb behind a line which consists of a very good player (Villarial), two apparent castoffs (Gandy and Anderson), a small center (Teague), and the highest paid RT in NFL history who is perhaps a tad better than average, if that.

In summary, although TD doesn't seem to be as bad as Mr. Butler wrt blocking, it is certainly not his strong suit. The Bills will flounder until they put forth a unit that can open holes and protect it's qb. Our defense in the "RJ/Flutie" era was as good as what we have now, or close to it. Truthfully, I prefer the current secondary by a lot, but the front 7 with Bryce and Bruce was pretty damn good, and we failed to advance in the playoffs due to the same problem we now face.

I am as excited about this season as one could imagine, but the fear of TD not taking care of the important business of blocking does linger.

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I generally aggree Mr. Bill but actually do not fear he future based on my assessment of the past:

 

1. I think the Bills have a pretty good draft record under TD. It certainly is not one of hitting a homerun every time, but I think us fans really over-value the draft in terms of asseing the skills of a GM. TD has said that a 50% success rate on even 1st round picks is pretty good for an NFL GM and the past experience indicates to me this is true. Folks do focus on the hits and they are more likely to come from the better players drafted in the 1st round (well duhh).

 

However, even these 1st rounders are slotted for such hefty salary commitments that it now really strikes me as good strategy to try to trade your 1st round pick for a proven talent or a later need. For every great Peyton Manning choice there is going to be a Ryan Leaf choice which kills your team for a year or more (the best thing about Leaf was that he flushed so quick that SD did not go through the RJ experience of a death of a thousand cuts that the maybe/woulda/coulds flirtation brings). Even worse Peyton Manning has brought Indy exactly the same number of SB wins and even SB appearances which Ryan Leaf brought to SD. Manning only finally "roared" out ahead of Leaf year before last in leading his teams to more playoff victories than Leaf. Its great rooting for Mannings play but talk about being bitten to death by ducks which is what Manning has brought to Indy in terms of their untimely death each year of his career. I'm not saying having Manning is bad, but it certainly has not proved to great or even very good outside of 1 year.

 

I think the 1st round draft record of the Bills under TD (Clements, Williams, WM. Evans, Losman) is pretty good as none of these choices is a bust. 1 is a Pro Bowler and 2 have Pro Bowl potential and the other two are starters with not unreasonable hope that they will be at least long-term contributors. In fact, his biggest failing was when he had his highest pick and few say he should reasonably have gone elsewhere than an OL choice and even in hindsight few would have picked McKinnie over the inconsistent MW based on their performance.

 

Once one gets into the second round then one has to recognize the reality that these picks will work out significantly less than the 50% (let's call it the Pro Bowl Standard for lack of a true measure or phrase) success rate of 1st rounders. Here. TD had led the way tp selecting: Schobel, Henry. Reed, Denney, and Kelsay in the the 2nd. One Pro Bowler here (I know you don't like him but he was judged by outside observers as meriting this nod and he returned when we wer done with him and traded him a 1st day pick), Schobel is a quality starter, Reed is not and has disappointed but is still on the team so he has one more chance not be a bust, Denney is referred to as a co-starter with Kelsay and I would argue that to understand the Bills D which is very productive by most measures Denney actually plays a critical productive role which allows us to go with only 3 DEs in a D which rotates DL players and Kelsay is the other co-starter. A 1 out of 5 record of busts in the 2nd even if you choose to write off Reed while there is still a season to play is pretty good.

 

The third round (and we are beginning to decend to a level of picks where one hopes but clearly should not expect a performance that gets a Pro Bowl nod and if this player starts he has done better than many players and I would not be surprised if anyone wants to do the statisitical analysis better than average) TD oversaw the selction of: Edwards, Jennings, Wire, Crowell, and Anderson. Of these players Edwards is a starter this year and Jennings is gone but not a player one would call a bust as a choice. Wire is a Reed like type who has a year of play to go but will be a bust unless he produces (which he might on ST we'll see), Crowell who has produced on ST and shows signs of being a good back-up and Anderson who is easily categorized as too early to tell. At any rate, again if you want to be harsh no gove reality a chance to define things there is one bust here.

 

All in all, I think it is hard to really find fault with 14 1st day picks of which 0 are completely done with the team and NFL and are clear busts. Of these 14 2 are likely busts (Reed and Wire) and the rest are actually reasonable NFL picks. It is the conventional wisdom that one needs three seasons before a player can be reasonably assesed. As the Bills have gotten a couple of Pro Bowl nods from the 9 players selected on the 1st day in 2001 and 2002 and 7 of these 9 remain on the roster I don't think this is a bad performance at all.

 

I think one actially has more legitimate complaints that under TD we have not seen a lot of Pro Bowl types from the second day (Only McGee) but again most of these picks remain contributors on our roster and i see no obvious indictment here.

 

I think you go in the right durection with a draft analysis of particular playuers and position because this ultimately gets you to the real reality of Ws and playoffs.

 

The bottomline here is simply one of failure because we have not made the playoffs, however if one invests in this reality to try to indict TD's work it is impossible to also no acknowledge the reality that this team did finally poduce a winning record last year and improved from 6-10 to 9-7. Folks cannot on the one hand claim that it proves TD is bad because of the Ws last year failing to be enough to make the playoffs but then they turnaround and ignore the fact that the Ws improved to the level we had a winning record.

[stuckincincy]

I generally aggree Mr. Bill

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But how can a team like the STL Rams go from the dumps to a SB win?

[Bill from NYC]

But how can a team like the STL Rams go from the dumps to a SB win?

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You start with Orlando Pace.

[stuckincincy]

You start with Orlando Pace.

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Or Eric Steinback...

[Frez]

You start with Orlando Pace.

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We have Mike Gandy, that's a good start!