Some hypotheticals JP/Holcomb

[Mikie2times]

I have been thinking about this for awhile and still don't have a concrete answer.

 

How much should we value getting JP experience as opposed to giving the team the best chance to win now?

 

JP has looked like he should look this preseason. A young quarterback with all the skills, just lacking in some development areas. At this point it appears that the only real way to get over those development problems for him is playing in game situations.

 

Our other option right now is Kelly Holcomb, an experienced vet with great accuracy but little arm strength. IMO he would have a difficult time navigating the Ralph winds in December. A problem he had in a windy game last year but let’s also remember he was going up against a very talented Bills D.

 

So who gives us the best chance to win now? If you believe 100% that it’s JP Losman, and that’s why he is starting then you’re likely a homer or don't believe politics exist in the NFL. I'm not saying that JP is not the correct answer to that question, as the staff has decided to go that route and time will tell. I'm just saying that as it stands now, and by judging the two players experience, and preseason play, its certainly possible that Kelly Holcomb could be the best win now player.

 

The staff decided early that they would announce JP as the man at QB, and plenty of logic supports that decision. It should go on to improve his play for the coming year, and it gave our team an early identity. But the fact remains that he got the job without winning it, hell he got it before our roster was even set yet. To me that says that at least part of him starting is because of draft status, potential, and his future development.

 

If things go well then this will become a dead issue. But if things aren't going so well it will be interesting to see how long the staff values his development over possibly going with a player that gives you a better chance at coming out on top.

[smokinandjokin]

Holcomb is a career backup from a below average college. Who says the Bills would win now with him? JP is the ONLY choice. Holcomb could nurse the team through maybe 3 games. KH had a huge playoff game, and a 900-yard passing game last year, and that's all people remember. NOTE: THEY LOST BOTH OF THOSE GAMES (thanks for reminding me Rockpile). There's a reason he's a career backup, and there's a reason he came to the Bills to be a backup. No teams were knocking down his door as the savior starter.

Edited September 1, 2005 by smokinandjokin

[rockpile]

Holcomb is a career backup from a below average college.  Who says the Bills would win now with him?  JP is the ONLY choice.  Holcomb could nurse the team through maybe 3 games.  KH had a huge playoff game, and a 900-yard passing game last year, and that's all people remember.  There's a reason he's a career backup, and there's a reason he came to the Bills to be a backup.  No teams were knocking down his door as the savior starter.

425970[/snapback]

 

...and didn't they lose that game?

 

The future is now. I will repeat what you said, "JP is the ONLY choice."

[smokinandjokin]

Here's a hypothetical:

 

Holcomb starts this year and the Bills go 8-8. Now we're having the same conversation next year about starting a QB who has thrown 12 NFL passes instead of 5.

 

Let's use our heads here people.

[Mikie2times]

Holcomb is a career backup from a below average college.  Who says the Bills would win now with him?  JP is the ONLY choice.  Holcomb could nurse the team through maybe 3 games.  KH had a huge playoff game, and a 900-yard passing game last year, and that's all people remember.  There's a reason he's a career backup, and there's a reason he came to the Bills to be a backup.  No teams were knocking down his door as the savior starter.

425970[/snapback]

 

Slow down bud, I NEVER said savior, in fact I thought I was pretty clear that I don't know who gives us the best chance at winning. Still the garbage list you assembled of Kelly Holcomb career compares favorably to that of a player that has never started an NFL game.

[stuckincincy]

Flip a coin. Kenny Anderson came out of Augastana College. Steve McNair attended Alcorn State. Andre Reed matriculated at Kutztown.

[Mikie2times]

By the way people I'm speaking about in season changes. Such as if JP's development is not going well do we put in a guy that might give us a better chance at winning or ride it out?

[smokinandjokin]

Slow down bud, I NEVER said savior, in fact I thought I was pretty clear that I don't know who gives us the best chance at winning. Still the garbage list you assembled of Kelly Holcomb career compares favorably to that of a player that has never started an NFL game.

425989[/snapback]

 

It's the NFL bro. The dreaded P word. JP has great potential. Holcomb looks good in a hat and headset. Bottom line. I think (and the Bills brass probably does also) that the Bills can go 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7 with either QB, largely because of the defense and #21. So why would you play the career Captain Clipboard?

 

I wasn't jumping down your throat; I agree with what you posted, but this is the dumbest hypothetical and it's the 90th time it's been played out on this board.

[brihs2005]

Ummm, i was thinking about this same thing earlier... i say you give us Trent Dilfer and we are almost a certain playoff team... sorry, but i think we have the makings of the Ravens from a few years back and i think Holcomb could be Dilfer-esque if anything were to happen to JP, or even if he started at the beginning of the year. That being said, i want JP to start and i am excited to see what happens with him.

[Albany,n.y.]

Our other option right now is Kelly Holcomb, an experienced vet with great accuracy but little arm strength. IMO he would have a difficult time navigating the Ralph winds in December. A problem he had in a windy game last year but let’s also remember he was going up against a very talented Bills D.

425957[/snapback]

Holcomb was injured and didn't play in last year's game at the Ralph. Luke McCown played most of the game, coming out briefly for Jeff Garcia who got injured in 1 series, forcing McCown back into the game. Holcomb finally returned for Cleveland's final game & they beat Houston.

[Mikie2times]

It's the NFL bro.  The dreaded P word.  JP has great potential.  Holcomb looks good in a hat and headset.  Bottom line.  I think (and the Bills brass probably does also) that the Bills can go 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7 with either QB, largely because of the defense and #21.  So why would you play the career Clipboard Captain?

 

I wasn't jumping down your throat; I agree with what you posted, but this is the dumbest hypothetical and it's the 90th time it's been played out on this board.

426000[/snapback]

 

Well obviously the P word is why he is starting, and I'm not disagreeing with that. In fact if I had the choice I would do the same thing the Bills did. I disagree though that Holcomb puts us at 7-9, 8-8, 9-7. I think we might be a 10-6 team with Holcomb, not because he is some stud QB, but simply because of the ST, Defense, and #21. For now do you roll the dice with JP and the Big P? Of course, but if the ship starts to sink we do have other options.

 

I think Holcomb can perform at Bledsoe like levels or slightly better. That’s not to far off based given his career QB rating compared to what Bledsoe gave us last year. Last year we went 9-7 with a team very similar to the one we have now. How is this prediction so unreasonable?

 

My thread was just asking at what point would you turn to Holcomb if JP is really struggling. If it gotten too much play on the wall you'll have to excuse me, been over a month since my last post.

[Mikie2times]

Holcomb was injured and didn't play in last year's game at the Ralph.  Luke McCown played most of the game, coming out briefly for Jeff Garcia who got injured in 1 series, forcing McCown back into the game.  Holcomb finally returned for Cleveland's final game & they beat Houston.

426016[/snapback]

 

Ahhh that’s right, now its coming back to me. But still the point about his arm strength is still valid. For all his short comings Bledsoe had cannon, and we watched plenty of QB's struggle badly with the winds last year. Not so sure his arm could hold up at the Ralph in December.

[smokinandjokin]

My thread was just asking at what point would you turn to Holcomb if JP is really struggling. If it gotten too much play on the wall you'll have to excuse me, been over a month since my last post.

426019[/snapback]

 

Nah, don't sweat it man.

 

I think JP will start every game, but Holcomb will see some time in games where JP lays an egg. But that would be any backup, not just Holcomb. I mean, if MM didn't yank Bledsoe after 1-5, he'll give JP plenty of time to crash and burn. I know S. Matthews was the option last year, but 1-5 is 1-5.

 

I also view KH as an upgrade over DB. If DB was still here and KH came to town, I would prefer KH.

[Dr. Fong]

Whether or not the Bills would hypothetically win more games with Holcomb as the QB or not I believe it is best to have Losman as the starter and taking his lumps. Hopefully he will blossom under fire and become the franchise QB that the Bills have been looking for since Kelly retired. I think the potential rewards, a future franchise QB, outweigh the risks, a couple of more regular season wins under Holcomb. Holcomb was a great addition to the team as a veteran backup QB. Let's just leave it at that.

[AJ1]

The answer to this question is determined by whether or not you believe in learning curves. JP is just now at the bottom of the curve. POTENTIAL indicates he will not stay at the bottom. The unknowable is the steepness of the curve representing JP's progress. The journey from kid QB to polished veteran does not go through the bench. Therefore, I predict JP will not be pulled under any circumstances other than a complete blowout or injury, for the entire season.

 

In other words, in the NFL, long-term gain should more important than short-sightedness, but it doesn't always work out that way there or in the business world in general.

[AJ1]

Whether or not the Bills would hypothetically win more games with Holcomb as the QB or not I believe it is best to have Losman as the starter and taking his lumps.  Hopefully he will blossom under fire and become the franchise QB that the Bills have been looking for since Kelly retired.  I think the potential rewards, a future franchise QB, outweigh the risks, a couple of more regular season wins under Holcomb.  Holcomb was a great addition to the team as a veteran backup QB.  Let's just leave it at that.

426030[/snapback]

 

Well, doctor, you and I just posted the same thought.

[Bill from NYC]

I have been thinking about this for awhile and still don't have a concrete answer.

 

How much should we value getting JP experience as opposed to giving the team the best chance to win now?

 

JP has looked like he should look this preseason. A young quarterback with all the skills, just lacking in some development areas.  At this point it appears that the only real way to get over those development problems for him is playing in game situations. 

 

Our other option right now is Kelly Holcomb, an experienced vet with great accuracy but little arm strength. IMO he would have a difficult time navigating the Ralph winds in December. A problem he had in a windy game last year but let’s also remember he was going up against a very talented Bills D.

 

So who gives us the best chance to win now? If you believe 100% that it’s JP Losman, and that’s why he is starting then you’re likely a homer or don't believe politics exist in the NFL.  I'm not saying that JP is not the correct answer to that question, as the staff has decided to go that route and time will tell. I'm just saying that as it stands now, and by judging the two players experience, and preseason play, its certainly possible that Kelly Holcomb could be the best win now player.

 

The staff decided early that they would announce JP as the man at QB, and plenty of logic supports that decision. It should go on to improve his play for the coming year, and it gave our team an early identity. But the fact remains that he got the job without winning it, hell he got it before our roster was even set yet.  To me that says that at least part of him starting is because of draft status, potential, and his future development.

 

If things go well then this will become a dead issue. But if things aren't going so well it will be interesting to see how long the staff values his development over possibly going with a player that gives you a better chance at coming out on top.

425957[/snapback]

 

The following is a reply from a fan who didn't like the trade that brought JP to the Bills:

 

There is no choice. JP has to get the call.

The Bills gave up a few spots in the first round, and the 13th pick in the second and 5th rounds. Many here seem to just write this off. Because our OL is still very possibly in shambles, I do not: and I am positive that neither does TD.

 

Wrt trades, TD is one of the more active GMs imo. He has done great things in this arena. He, in essense, traded Peerless for MaGahee. He also found a way to salvage a 3rd for Henry,who will surely continue to stink up the football field; or so I see it. He brought us some fine FAs as well.

That being said, his W/L record is bad; very bad, and he, in poker terms, went "All IN" wrt JP. The kid paid him back with a ton of work in the offseason, this with a widely respected coach (Wyche).

Again, I was against the deal that even brought JP here, but I respect the decision made by these football professionals.

 

I have only 2 fears:

1) That too much emphasis was placed on the Pitt. game by both MM and TD. I still suspect that if they won, Drew would be starting.

2) That MM and TD saw what Pitt. did last year with a rookie and think that they can do likewise. Pitt was able (imo) to do so because even their scrub offensive linemen were good enough to shove Pat Williams around. They had a wall in front of Big Ben and it was deep. We have Gandy playing LT, and nobody seems too thrilled by Anderson. From where I sit, this is not good.

 

Again, I support the decision to make JP our poster boy but if he does fail, TD should be held responsible. It could very possibly result in that the Bills will suck for quite some time.

If this happens, he should be shown the door.

 

Jmo.

[jarthur31]

I have been thinking about this for awhile and still don't have a concrete answer.

 

How much should we value getting JP experience as opposed to giving the team the best chance to win now?

 

JP has looked like he should look this preseason. A young quarterback with all the skills, just lacking in some development areas.  At this point it appears that the only real way to get over those development problems for him is playing in game situations. 

 

Our other option right now is Kelly Holcomb, an experienced vet with great accuracy but little arm strength. IMO he would have a difficult time navigating the Ralph winds in December. A problem he had in a windy game last year but let’s also remember he was going up against a very talented Bills D.

 

So who gives us the best chance to win now? If you believe 100% that it’s JP Losman, and that’s why he is starting then you’re likely a homer or don't believe politics exist in the NFL.  I'm not saying that JP is not the correct answer to that question, as the staff has decided to go that route and time will tell. I'm just saying that as it stands now, and by judging the two players experience, and preseason play, its certainly possible that Kelly Holcomb could be the best win now player.

 

The staff decided early that they would announce JP as the man at QB, and plenty of logic supports that decision. It should go on to improve his play for the coming year, and it gave our team an early identity. But the fact remains that he got the job without winning it, hell he got it before our roster was even set yet.  To me that says that at least part of him starting is because of draft status, potential, and his future development.

 

If things go well then this will become a dead issue. But if things aren't going so well it will be interesting to see how long the staff values his development over possibly going with a player that gives you a better chance at coming out on top.

425957[/snapback]

 

 

Defense and ST are built to win now, not 3 years from now.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Defense and ST are built to win now, not 3 years from now.

426305[/snapback]

 

I totally aggree with this thought and its why I think that for the Bills to win right here and right now the key for us is that decision of who statts at QB will make little difference in whether we make the playoffs or not.

 

I definitely think JP should start for the Bills. I fully expect him to perform like any NFL QB (including RoboQB for Pitts last year) which is that this will be a learning year for him with both its ups and downs.

 

I have no problem with MM deciding to bench JP if he judges that there are too many downs and it will cost us a shot at the playoffs. It will be tough for JPs development if he gets benched but so be it. He should not be forced to sit as soon as he makes a mistake and thus he should not be so gunshy that he so fears making any errors he does not do his best.

 

However, MM should not have infinite patience if he makes recurrent critical errors and if he produced the same 0-4 start that Bledsoe had I would likely sit him for Holcomb.

 

Look TB gave up on both Steve Young and Favre and traded them both. Brad Johnson was released by two teams and yet all three came back to QB SB winners. If JP sucks he will need to be a big boy and deal with getting benched if it comes to that.

 

I expect JP to have a good year for us, but my sense is that a good year forthis young QB will actually see him producing a QB rating not all that different from what Bledsoe produced for us last year. What I judge is good for a first year starting QB is actually a bad result for a 9 year vet QB even if the results are basically the same.

 

How can this be? The answer is that even with an inadequate performance for Bledsoe this team would have made the playoffs last year if the D had performed as well against the Pitts scrubs as well as they did against the teams they destroued in the win streak. We would have made the playoffs last year if the ST didn;t feature Lindell missing a chip shot FG or Nate Clements laying a PR on the carpet.

 

Bledsoe was an inadequate QB who could not overcome outages from the D and ST. I do not expect this first year starting QB to be good enough to do this either (who knows maybe he will surprise) but the key for us is for this D and our ST to not require out QB to be more than a clone of Trent Dilfer.

[Simon]

Pitt was able (imo) to do so because even their scrub offensive linemen were good enough to shove Pat Williams around.

 

The only reason PatWilliams wasn't the best player on the field for either team was because Nate Clements forced 4 turnovers. If you're going to call out one Bill on a day that the BuffaloD scored a TD and held a 15-1 team to 250yrds of total offense, maybe you should pick somebody else.

Just so everybody's all clear on this, in Phat Pat's last game as a Bill he led the team with 12 tackles, registered the Bills' only sack in the second half, made 3 tackles for a loss and another 3 for nogain, registered a couple QB pressures and was all over the field.

He was a monster that day and nobody should think any differently.

Cya