gibhunter Posted August 30, 2005 Share Posted August 30, 2005 Consider this: In the fourth quarter when games are decided, the Bills shut out only two opponents St. Louis and Cleveland. New England shut out 8 opponents in the 4th quarter! 422179[/snapback] I like the point you made, but you still don't account for offensive ineptitude. How many times last year the Bills' offense gave up the ball or lost yardage late in the game. After being on the field for so long, it's not really surprising that a tired defense would get a bit deflated and give up the points. Our defense bailed us out more times than any reasonable fan should ask for. Now it's up to our offense to stay on the field and keep them from getting tired. Once that happens the fourth quarter shutouts will be a more common occurence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted August 30, 2005 Share Posted August 30, 2005 3rd down effectiveness would be a real measuring stick. It seemed like the Bills made big plays on 1st and 2nd downs, only to cough one up on 3rd down. PTR 421911[/snapback] That would seem to me to be an indication that the defense doesn't get pressure on the QB when the offense knows the blitz is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KnightRider Posted August 30, 2005 Share Posted August 30, 2005 Not only were the Bills #2 in yards allowed in '04, but they were #1 in forced turnovers, #3 in sacks, and #2 against the run. Take your pick of which category is more important, it matters not. 422004[/snapback] Forced turnovers is the most important stat IMHO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted August 30, 2005 Share Posted August 30, 2005 At the end of the day, statistics other than wins and losses don't matter(particularly playoff wins and losses). My point about the Bills defense was to indicate that just because they were "ranked 2nd" by the league guidelines for ranking, does not mean they were necessarily the 2nd best defense. I get tired of hearing the oft repeated phrase, "the Bills had the 2nd best defense" in the NFL in 2004. Another overlooked factor in evaluating the defense is the strength of the opposing offenses they faced. The Bills had one win over the Jets who ranked 17th in pts. scored, win over St.Louis ranked 19th, win over Arizona ranked 26th, two wins over Miami ranked 27th, win over Cleveland ranked 28th, and a win over San Fran ranked 30th!! In addition, they lost to Oakland ranked 18th, lost to Baltimore ranked 20th and lost to Jax ranked 29th!! In other words, they played the Who's Who list of bad offenses last year. Has anyone considered that before? Will they be able to play the worst offenses again this year? I don't think so. KC,SD,NE were ranked 2nd,3rd,4th. Den,Atl,Carolina,New Orleans were all in the top 16. Who would you say had the better defense last year Buffalo or New England? If you go by the NFL stats the Bills were #2 and NE was #9. Consider this: In the fourth quarter when games are decided, the Bills shut out only two opponents St. Louis and Cleveland. New England shut out 8 opponents in the 4th quarter! I am a lifelong Bills fan, but I have to point out some objective facts so that people don't get so carried away by the hype. 422179[/snapback] No question, our defense isn't so perfect that it couldn't stand some improvement. Whether we were ranked 1st or 11th, isn't my concern. I saw that defense breakdown at critical junctures costing us a game. Yeah, the offense was pretty inept but they weren't that bad. New England had 27 turnovers and we had 29. Not that big of a difference. The idea that our offense constantly left our defense in a terrible position with turnovers is overstated. The real problem was that the offense didn't generate points to go along with the occasional turnovers. I love our defense but if we want to be on top, it needs to get better. The mere suggestion of such heresy can get you in trouble around here so be careful. As for this year, the best reason to think the defense is going to get better: Kelsay. The best reason to be concerned that it might slip a bit: Edwards. The position I'd most like to see some improvement from: Posey. I'd also like to see Schobel get more sacks against quality opposition rather than beefing up his numbers against the fins and then disappearing against better opponents. The defense is very, very good but needs to get better. The offense.....well lets just say it has more room for improvement than the defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afrodziak Posted August 30, 2005 Share Posted August 30, 2005 Your idea sounds good, but i think another good way to look at it is to use 4 factors, in order of importance: Points allowed Points scored Turnovers forced Yards allowed I think if you factor in those four things, you really have an excellent formula for determining defensive dominance. i would even say you could make it three and remove the standard yards allowed from the bottom of that list with no ill effects... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambler Posted August 30, 2005 Author Share Posted August 30, 2005 I love our defense but if we want to be on top, it needs to get better. The mere suggestion of such heresy can get you in trouble around here so be careful. The position I'd most like to see some improvement from: Posey. I'd also like to see Schobel get more sacks against quality opposition rather than beefing up his numbers against the fins and then disappearing against better opponents. The defense is very, very good but needs to get better. The offense.....well lets just say it has more room for improvement than the defense. 422438[/snapback] Bingo! There is room for improvement as the previous quote mentions. This is meant to be constructive criticism. Why do the Bills blitz so much? One big reason is that the D line can't pressure the QB by themselves. IMO the DE's are a little weak by league standards for top teams. Also, as mentioned above, Posey has been getting a free pass for some sub-par play. The linebackers as a group are good only because Spikes is exceptional, Fletcher is good and Posey is average at best. I did a statistical analysis of the top linebacking teams in the AFC and found that among Buffalo,Denver,Baltimore,New England and the NY Jets that the biggest dropoff in production between the top two linebackers and the weakest linebacker of each group was found in Buffalo. Statistically, Posey was very weak and not pulling his weight relative to the better linebacking corps. P.S. I know there are many variables at play here, but many of the same variables are at play with these other teams too and their third LB's performance didn't drop off like Posey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted August 30, 2005 Share Posted August 30, 2005 We all know that the Bills defense ranked 2nd in the NFL last year. These rankings are based on how many yards the defense allowed. You can't read any article or listen to any sportscaster without it being mentioned several times. I think there may be a couple of ways at analyzing a defense that may be more informative than just "yards allowed". First of all, the scoreboard is the most important statistic in football. Therefore, I believe that "points allowed" is inherently a better measure of a defense. How well does a defense keep the opponent from scoring seems more important than just yards allowed. In this respect, the Bills defense ranked 8th in the league. The top three teams were Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and New England. However, there may be another way to analyze the efficiency of the defense using both yards allowed and points allowed. The defense which may bend a little and give up a few more yards, but gets really tough when the opponent gets near scoring range is indeed a very good defense. A statistical way to view this is to ask the question, " How many points does the defense allow per 100 yards gained against it?" Teams that give up meaningless yards, but are extremely tough to score against are top defenses. If you divide the points allowed by the defense by the numbers of yards allowed (using 100 yard units) you get a number which ranks the efficiency of the defense. I feel that this defensive efficiency rank is a more accurate reflection of the true strength of the defense. It also reflects IMHO that a defense which gets tough in the scoring zone is the superior defense. Defenses which perform during crunch time are the best. So how do the Bills rank using this statistic? Buffalo ranked number 21 in 2004. There were times last year when the defense had "must stop" situations (i.e. after a Bledsoe fumble in their own end) and they failed to stop the opponent at the key time. They didn't give up a lot of yards in those situations, but they didn't show the trademarks of a top defense either. So which teams ranked highest on this measure of defensive efficiency? Philadelphia and New England were 1 and 2. Last year's Superbowl contestants! 421902[/snapback] I think the point you make simply reinforces the key point that while many stats are indicators of truth, no stat is conclusive or really proves a truth beyond the final stat of an SB game score. I think the stat you site is a good measure which indicates many truths and coincides with the ultimate truth of the SB particpants. However, it would be inccorect to conclude that just because one stat has these benefits that all other stats are untrue or that they are bad. The Bills ranking #2 statistically in D last year was just that. It is simply quite impressive that the Bills could rank 2nd in yards given up last year when it was merely 2 seasons before that in 2002 that the D was the weakpoint of this team as Bledsoe and the high-flying O carried the team to an 8-8 recrd despite the D. The important question right here and right now is whether the #2 yardage ranking or the #21 index ranking is closer to what the reality will be in terms of the 2005 D performance. With 10 of 11 starters back and very good D performances in all three pre-season games and the scrimmage, I would say the tea leaves point more toward us building upon the #2 # than having our D be located in the lower third of the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKC Posted August 30, 2005 Share Posted August 30, 2005 Spikes is exceptional, Fletcher is good 422850[/snapback] Spikes is a great athlete and a busy player on the field with exceptional range and instincts, but I'd have a hard time rasing him above his cohort who is all football player- London has excelled at his job in the middle from the moment he was made a starter in the NFL- he's averaged over 95 tackles and 4 sacks a season over that 5 year span and he's never missed a game! That's far superior to the Zack Thomas and Teddy Bruschi media idols and there's no doubt in my mind we have the best MLB in our division and one of the 3 best in the league. Sure you can make a similar argument for Takeo, and no doubt Takeo is a highlight film player, but it's steady London who quietly goes about the duties in the middle of the field and IMO gets far too little recognition for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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