Roster Battles- Whose leading?

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

The Buffalo News printed an article today featuring roster battles which is a nice way to focus on this issue as a bunch of cuts are scheduled to happen on Tuesday.

 

It is not a completely focused way to present this as the Tuesday cuts will mostly thin the field and really not decide a lot of these battles for roster spots. In addition what happens in this weekend's pre-season game which to some extent will be determined by the dunb luck of how this odd-shaped ball bounces will determine close outcomes in battles for roster spots.

 

The article also fails to deliver on the promise of the headline viving interesting info and perspectives on a few individuals but not being able to real lay out the likely battles.

 

Nevertheless this is my attempt to do this and even make some wild-eyed guesses in terms of outcomes though my predicitions may and should change with whatever reality delivers this weekend:

 

1. 4th CB spot- King v. the rest

 

I agree with BN that the injury to Thomas which has him on the PUP list makes King the winner with Fontenot and Oglesby surviving this cut but not the next one. Though the nothing I hear regarding Thomas' recovery is foreboding, King will get the spot as a drafted rookie and though he has had typical rookie struggles he shows reasonable progress and I feel fine about this particularly since our starting FS Vincent is a recent Pro-Bowl CB.

 

2. Back-up LT- Price v. Jerman

 

BN talks alot about Jerman having a rough start but coming back to life recently (it must be practice because I saw little of this from this vet against GB). Peters has gotten very high marks for how quickly he has progressed in playing the position. The '05 problem for us is that Price is making great progress from next to nothing as an LT. He got the T number mid last season when activated so he has less than a year in this spot and regardless of his progress it is going to be dicey thing if we are ever forced to entrust JP blindside protection to a player who has come no closer than being a TE to an OL position until the middle of last year.

 

In addition my old stalking horse of perhaps it being a mistake to simply stop this extraordinary athlete for catching the ball by playing him at LT has been brought up once again by the injury to Euhus. I know folks are freaking out about losing JJ, but if Gandy is surprisingly solid, Jerman is in fact coming back (I'll believe this when I see it) and actually a better plan B than Peters if we are forced to it may be to move Teague for C to LT and move Preston or Tucker to starting C (as horrid as this chain reaction is I hope we don;t have to do this.. Come on Gandy work) do not be surprised if talk suddenly rears its head that Parrish's receving talent cannot be denied and now that he is better blocker with his LT work he might actually be a second coming of Remeirsma as a receiver and Friggin Lonnie a blocker (the last time we had credible TE talent in all phases of the game it was unfortunately two players).

 

At any rate, one can be barely satisfied with our starting situation at LT, the back-up question for 05 is still open.

 

The most hopeful thing said about this is that MM says that Peters is not ready to start in '05 but he is holding his own when he plays. This is not a great endorsement for a back-up doing more than spot duty so Gandy cannot be hurt for multiple games or have his talent go south again.

 

The BN goes as far as saying Peters could still be used at TE in a pinch. The BN saying it is a long way from the coaches saying something and I don't even trust the coaches' words. However, if Euhus injury which definitely will sideline him against the Bears is more serious than 1 game or is a sign that with his ACL boo-boo last year of RJ-like injury proneness (its too early to say for sure but 2 injuries to different parts of the body in a short time makes just the time to say this as a real fear) then a TE line-up of Campbell (seemingly recovered from injury we hope but needing to step-up anyway to be the starter we want), Neufeld (I like him better as an H-back) and Trafford (nice guy but) this sounds like a pinch to me.

 

3. Back-up RB- Gates v. Lee v. Burns

 

Ironically, though all of these players are badmouthed on TSW as not good enough to be our back-up RB, though I agree with that call I would be pleased to have any of these three on our roster because pluses they add or prospects they have.

 

I think Shaud Williams has won the #2 slot with some very good games last year and solid appearances this year. I'm not sure how I feel about this because if WM goes down this is a major hit to our O because Shaud ain't no WM (but then who is, if only we had the 2002 Henry as a back-up). I actually think Williams plays productively enough that he can spell WM nicely for a game or two (disagree if one wants but he did this in real life last year). but he just seems to small to stand up to long-term play-in and play-out pounding.

 

The battle is for the number 3 slot with really only Lee having an outside chance at this if he has a couple of extraorinary Pre-season games which I don't think will happen. My sense is that the battle looks like this:

 

Gates- Probably a keeper as he is the only prospect for furture very good development among the three. As #3 RB his role is not game critical and as a rookie he is expected to make mistakes and since he is not game critical he will have time to work on them. His running and scoring a TD in the GB game provides some reality to him being a prospect and the possibility that he may even demonstrate that he can contribute at RB in '05 depending on how he looks in the next two exhibition outings. I think he makes the 53 man roster or some team with depth at RB or no chance this year signs him to their active roster.

 

Lee- Has gotten some grief on TSW but I think most of this is a combination of folks disappointed that he does not appear to a #2 quality RB or the usual whining from folks who hate TD and indict all his moves whether its picking WM, signing Adams for a song, or hiring MM (I wished he had picked him over GW thoughbut perhaps neither was ready to HC at the time).

 

Lee has been not very productive at RB (though some of this is in strong part the young JPs fault, for example there was a missed hand-off to Lee which caused JP to scramble, I think the two choices are that this was also substantially JPs fault as it is the QBs shared and lead responsibility to make a sound play everytime and hand-off this time and clearly he and Lee were not on the same page OR it was mostly JPs fault because there is a school of teaching that the RBs job is to primarily look for the hole to run through and it is primarily the QBs job to get the RB the ball in his hand. In terms of assessing Lee it doesn't matter because the job did not get done on that play or other game running attempts for the most part and even if it was mostly the young QB's error he is going to be a first year QB all season and picking up for his mistakes will be something vets are going to need to do all year.

 

Still though he has not shown enough to be #2 RB and probably not even #3 I do like what he has shown on ST from the very nice KR last week (folks who claim he was untouched so it was easy have not taken from watching football that one is untouched on the KR because the runner does a great job reading and setting up blocks and striling the balance between going straight forward and dancing if necessary. One only has to see most KR end with the runner picking a hole that never materializes because he picks the wrong blocks and he runs into a pile. Lee has also player some coverage ST and looked good. If the ST judgment is to keep him it is fine with me.

 

Burns- he also gets grief because year after year he is not Travis Henry or Willis McGahee. However, year after year he also has been a stalwart on ST and in a pinch has filled in at FB and RB. Again this is a judgment for Bobby April and the gang to make so whatever balance they make based on activity off camera we do not see or activity at practice most of us do not see so our ST judgments are questionable at best it is fine with me.

 

4. 4th DE- Ritzman v. Gause

 

Both these players have impressed with Ritzman in particular putting up some good numbers this pre-season and having spent a year on the roster (though mostly IR) and Gause bringing an impressive set of skills (though he needs more training) to the table and also some notable performances this year.

 

However, the Bills went with just three DEs last year as I think it was the case that in our run blitz scheme the normal positions of 2 starting DEs, and 2 back DEs and 2 starting OLBs, and 2 back-up OLBs does not really apply.

 

The Bills used a lot of sets with the three DEs playing last year and actually the player who sat was a DT mostly as Phat Pat was in for less than 50% of the D snaps (a stat not explained fully at all by him sitting on 3rd because that still leaves 66% of the snaps as 1st and second downs and actually a little bit more as opponents sometimes got a FD on their 1st or 2nd play. Big losses that made 2nd down a passing down are balanced by any big gains that made 3rd down a running down).

 

This actually increased the need for a DE to be kept, but actually the xone blitz scheme as implemented by Gray has used Posey as a a downlineman lined uo way left and used Denney in his in place from time to time. Schobel has shown the ability to drop back in pass coverage that has resulted in him and Denney also playing a similar role.

 

I feel more comfortable with one of these two stepping up in a traditional role, but it would not surprise me at all to see us go with 3 DEs once again and one or both of these players ending up on the PS. Its too close to tell as best as I can judge who this may be.

 

5. #3-6 WR Parrish v. Reed v. Aiken v. Haddad v. Smith v. Wilson

 

This is probably the battle that has attracted the most attention but this one is so unclear as:

 

1. The injury status or effects if he can play regarding Parrish;s wrist are really unknown making all our fan predicitions pretty questionable because we can;t even say what the shape of the table is much less who should sit at it.

 

2. The number os WRs we will keep is totally open to question given that the 6th WR if he is kept must have some contributing ST talent and probably PR talent. However, if we decide to use our #1 CB on PR and Parrish gets better and takes the back-up or lead PR duty then we probably do not keep a 6th WR who is more a PR guy. Not only does the injury wildcard no one outside of the docs and the coach has a call on, but temperament and choice issues regarding playing Clements as a PR given his import at CB and him being in a contract year make this unknown and most stone cold lock WR pronouncements pretty laughable,

 

3. WR position contributions beyond the stat sheet and what we can see on TV (plus even with the addition of what folks saw in camp as the reports are at both extemes depending on whether folks hate or are pulling for Reed) will likely determine the final decision because it is pretty close and involves a ton of variable in terms of the final choice.

 

My own laughable guess is this:

 

3. Parrish will be the #3 if he is well. His speed will still be there and he still will be a threat that forces DCs to put a very fast DB on him if he can even half catch with his wounded wrist and if this happens Evans may get a slower guy or Moulds will get to work without a double team. In essence play a zone for most teams because they simply will not have the talent to cover all are players adequately in man to man. If Parrish can't go predictions are very very very hard to do.

 

4. I really go back and forth on this and this position can be won if someone steps up and performs in the last two exhibition games. I have to guess that Reed has the upper hand if in fact his blocking is superior to Aiken's and Haddad as some have said (though some swear by the blocking of these other two though much of this accompanies total indictments of Reed which serve to make it appear that they are more interested in winning the argument by painting it as a black and white obvious choice rather than the close call a real assessment seems to be. I put a lot of stake on the blocking ability of the #4 because if Parrish is not back and he steps up to #3, the D warping ability of this player is not there since none of the three has Parrish speed and the O with them at #3 is more of a play with WM as the sole RB and blocking rather than receiving will be a serious duty.

 

If Parrish is back and the #4 is there in 4 WR sets with Parrish he will het to go up against the dregs of the pass coverage guys or run his routes in coordination wih his teammates on zones. Both Aikeb and Reed have more practice at this though Haddad clearly has a instict for the ball which is better than Aiken who has been fairly warm/cold as a receiver in his career and Reed who has been hot/frozen with the extremens he has shown from earning a shot at #2 based on his rookie year to having an awful case of the droppsies his 2nd year that his confidence has still not seem to have recovered from though he is better than he was that horrid year.

 

Reed is still the back-up KR guy on this team though is Rashard Lee earns a slot if his RB play kicks up a lot he probably will be McGees back-up. Haddad definitely adds to the ST threat with some good PR chops he showed getting a couple of pre-season TDs in Indy and his returns last week but there are a lot of PR options on this team so good PR work may not add much to his good WR work. Aiken was one of the leading tacklers on PR last year but this team has a lot of good competition for the coverage unit so none of these players can gurantee their ST chops puts them over the top and they have to win it with their position play.

 

5. All three players are vet and probably have shown the maximum of what they can do )Aiken being the exception by age/career but he has done nothing to grab this job by the throat even though he had the chance. Second place for #4 looks good here but some temperament and route running precision choices will probably be made by the Bills braintrust here and the judgment of outside observers is almost certainly not gonna be accurate. For this 5 th slot ST will play a more important role. I don't think good ST play will get you the #4 job, but it may well put a player over the top for #5.

 

6. This position is a wildcard as none of this player will make his main contribution on ST. Maybe this player is a gunner or a wedge guy but more likely he will need to be a threat to put points on the board at PR.

 

Clements and likely Parrish are better PR guys than any candidates for this job so if MM decided that putting the best player on the field is worth he additional risk of injury or Parrish recovers enough then there is no number 6 WR.

 

Of the candidates, Fast Freddy is the only one with an NFL PR TD to his credit and given a couple of other long returns he pulled off this cannot be ignored. He is a mecuric player who has not shown the route running discipline in his shoer career to be the #4 or 5. I think he has the lead for the #but the position may not even exist.

 

Haddad shows good PR ability but he is not a gamebreaker either yet. If he can repeat the PR TDs he produced previously in pre-season he will be a threat to make this team as a #6 even if he cannot push Reed or Aikeb out (which he might).

 

It also should be noted that Leonhard has shown some good PR chops, we may go without a #6 WR if we feel we have options behind Clements or Parrish if MM chances his mind.

 

At any rate, I think the leaders today are:

 

1. Moulds

2. Evans

3. Parrish

4. Reed

5. Haddad

 

This configuration assumes that Parrish comes back with some sort of brace on his wrist which lessens the chance of additional damage but lowers his ability to catch passes. However, his wheels are still fine and DCs must respond or else he may get enough space where he can make a 1 1-/2 handed catch and this makes him worth using as a #3. He likely will not be able to handle PR duty for a while, but Clements is given the PR role and Haddad backs him up if he is injured or we pull him out for just CB duty.

 

Reed is probably the most controversial choice here as many folks are just sick of this guy who failed them at his shot for #2. However, as #4 he will be stepping back to taking on a roll that calls for even less than the #3 role he did well his rookie year. With Parrish in, Moulds commanding a DT, and Evans producing to build on his rookie production (he better not pull a Reed and I don't think he will) either Reed will get to feast on #5 instead of #2 CBs, safeties or more likely LBs. If the other team goes to the zone, coordinated route running with Moulds, Evans

and Parrish will be most essential. Reed's problem has not been an inability to run routes and get open it has been an inability to hang onto passes which hit him in the hands.

 

If Parish cannot play the downfield blocking becomes very important for the new #3 and Reed has gotten some good reviews from the coaches which may make the difference though I expect Parrish will be back in a crippled form which still allows for good productive football.

 

I see Haddad squeezing out Aiken if he continue with the same production levels. Though I hope a healthy Parrish can still run, I would not be surprised if we wait awhile to risk the wrist.

 

As I suspect that MM will make the same choice he made last year when he used Clements on PR and the contract uncertainty will both see Clements want to improve his case by playmaking on punts and the Bills be willing to get as much production as they can out of a player who may be gone next year he will be our PR guy. We need a back-up here, but as Fast Freddy will be sitting on PR and on O because of his lack of discipline I think he is gone and Haddad as our #5 can back-up Clements and play WR when needed. There will be too many good coverage guys to tackle for this to be Aiken's major calling card and he simply never produced TDs as the #3 last year or this preseason.

 

This all can change, has tons of variables, and like all of you misses critical info to make a good choice or prediction but this is my wid-eyed guess.

[Black Panther]

I really want to see 2 things:

1) How is Edwards going to fill PW's spot

2) Who and how are they going to equal Jonas' LT spot.

 

I have more faith in rotating with Peters and coach Mc Nally than I do with our loud mouth/tune him out D line coach. He's like a smarter version of the straw chewer but just as obnoxious. We'll see. But I think the D line will suffer more than the O Line and JP will make sure it looks that way.