Reed and Aiken better remember Booby Shaw

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

If one invests in the silliness of looking for ONE move last year that made all the difference in the Bills going from 0-4 to a 9-3 finish which almost made the playoffs perhaps the best coincidental case can be made that it was the cut of Bobby Shaw which made the difference.

 

Say what?

 

What about WM taking over for Henry? What about using Bannan as a G inthe redzone?

 

There is evidence that these switches also can be linked to the turnaround in the Bills 2004 production. However, as has been exhaustively shown when someone trotted out the notion that the Bills improvement was directly linked to WM walking on the field, this idea does not bear our statisitically as:

 

1. WM saw some significant time early on before he got full confidence and actually the improvement did not coincide with him walking on the field.

 

2. The Bills actually experienced similar success which WM was not a part of it terms of play (ST performance and the D performance were more significant and statistically better linked to the turnaround) or even his being around as we still won laughers even with Shaud Williams or lesser WM performances.

 

3. The Bannan mov or simply sitting Smith explanations also fall apart when someone weighs them down by claiming they are the sole or even simply pivotal turning point.

 

However, though it is simply silly to declare any ONE reason THE reason statistically it does show how a whole bunch of things can can come together and be absolutely critical to producing the final outcome. Many elements are necessary to win as a TEAM but no one thing is sufficient to explain or dictate the outcome.

 

One of those key myriad factors to last year's turnaround was ironically the decision by MM to cut Bobby Shaw. This move had no real effect on the game as Shaw did not even register an official game stat appearance for the Bills in the first 4 games. He went from being the leading WR on the 2003 team due to the injury to Moulds and production outage of Reed to simply being not used by MM in 2004.

 

Though he did not log any stats to mark and official appearance for the Bills in 2004, he was on the roster and logged time under the CBA which put the Bills on the hook for his entire base salary in 2004 (in terms of cap hit for sure and probably in terms of paychecks to Shaw though the NFL may allow some sort of compensatory deal if Shaw is signed by a new team in the NFL but I do not know) after he was on the roster for two games.

 

At any rate, the key to this to me was that it generally is felt that Shaw was a quality guy. Though he did noting for us on the field, he was a vet prescence and did nothing to hurt the the team by sulking or making a half effort perceptible to the outside world after he was passed over by Evans, Reed, Aiken and even Fast Freddy Smith as WR position contributors to the Bills.

 

The Bills had Shaw on the roster just in case Moulds suffered another injury or Reed and the others failed to produce and we had an option if needed on the roster who knew our plays and could step right in. The Bills could cut him with no immediate cost on the field, but as his salary obligation was set there was no financial advantage to cutting him and actually the team would bear a small marginal cost to replace him on the roster.

 

Still in the face of this HC, Mr. Mike sent an important message with Shaw being cut. This message was crucial for an 0-4 team (which had played well enough to win against Jax but a couple of unlikely plays in the final drive cost us a win at home and some refs calls so bad that even the NFL admitted errors cost us against the Raiders cost us a road win) to change the direction of the team.

 

MM clearly said with this cut that it is not enough for a player to simply be a nice guy, a vet, and not a negative on the team. MM sent a clear message that while the Buffalo Bills are a business, that the team was willing to spend a few hundred K if it gave even the chance to get better on the field.

 

MM sent a clear message that a player needed to demand to contribute on the field with his play or he probably would no longer be a Bill.

 

I think this point is relevant right now because of the competition at WR.

 

Josh Reed is the heir apparent at #3 WR. He is a vet who was productive enough in his first year that with the aid of Moulds and PP at WR he made us comfortable enough with his performance as a rookie that we let PP go and anointed Reed as #2 (This was a reasonable move by TD given Reed's rookie production and the sense that he was a #1 talent who slipped to the 2nd round. The juggling he did to take Reed which confused most observers as we had two quality WRs in 2002 under contact with Moulds and PP actually allowed us to tag and trade PP to AT. As this draft pick which replaced the 1st traded for Bledsoe became WM (another choice which confused observers) these moves actually produced on the field which is the bottomline so kudos to TD for the outcome of these maneuvers.

 

However, Reed's devwlopment of the droppsies his second year clearly marks him as a failure at #2 WR and the injury which sidetracked him last year moves him pretty close to being a bust overall. It happens and given his initial good production I think it is fairly laughable when people fault TD's football judgment for this choice. His concepts were reasonable and even worked out intially though the choice was clearly a failure in the end, but given even the best of GMs has some failed prominent draft choices this single occurence is not proof he is bad.

 

At any rate, Reed is still a reasonable betting choice to remain on the roster:

 

1. He has a several hundred thousand dollar cap hit whether he is cut or not as his bonus was prorated. There is no fiscal savings for cutting Reed and actually there us a small cost as hemust be replaced with a base salary which will probably be below the 51 counted in the cap but our deadspace number will go up.

 

2. He is generally known as a workout warrior who despite a lack of clear production on the field is known as a hard worker who looks good in practice and in the weight room even though the production on the field is not there. His presence sends a message to rookies and newbies that hard work in practice is noticed and rewarded when it pays off on the field.

 

However, it is the last point which is the key. If Reed does not produce on the field it does not matter how nice a guy he is or how buff he looks in the weight room. Unless he catches the TD passes and moves the sticks he likely will be gone.

 

Even harder for him is that several camp fodder guys like Haddad and Wilson on the WR depth chart are actually producing in games. Even better for Haddad he is producing on ST as a return guy and if you are backing up and will not start as a position player, ST is how one contributes to the team.

 

Aiken has learned this lesson and he contributed far more to the team as an ST tackler last year than his spot appearances as #3 after the Reed injury. He never really produced at a level last year as #3 that demanded PT, but this simply means he better produce on the field on ST.

 

overall, I really like the message and the TEAM which MM buit with the cut of Shaw last year being a part of that message. It gave us the roster space to add a player like Peters who surprised folks by not only being unblockable in practice but translated that into a contribution on the field as he blocked a kick and scored a TD last year.

 

Both Reed and Aiken are on thin ice right now as Haddad is producing on the field as a position player and on ST and Wilson is producing in his brief opportunities as a position player.

 

Ironically, if any of these players are essential to the 2005 Bills beyond an occaisional play like the one Peters pulled off last year we are probably in big trouble because we are force to rely on Haddad for something or even Reed as #3WR. However, overall I love the message Mm has sent and love this competition.

[duey]

Good analysis. Restoking the pro-UB sentiment, I am once again rooting hard for Haddad to make the team. And I am VERY happy at the opportunities he is being given in the preseason games. For the time being, Roscoe's loss is Drew's gain, and I think he stands a fairly good chance at making the team if he keeps it up.

[LabattBlue]

1,528 word post on a Sunday afternoon is a good day's work. Grab a cold beer, find the remote, hit the couch and call it a day.

[duey]

1,528 word post on a Sunday afternoon is a good day's work.  Grab a cold beer, find the remote, hit the couch and call it a day.

413813[/snapback]

 

Seriously...I don't think I've ever written that much, even about LOST!

[My Friends Call Me Tebucky]

Don't discount Milloy's return as a major reason for the turnaround either.

[eball]

booby shaw was breasts, man...

[kota]

Personally i don't think MM liked Shaw's loud mouth attitude.