Judging Drafts- Why One Must Wait

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

There is a thread below which claims TD really screwed up the 2005 draft becasue his first two picks suffered injuries which have laid them low.

 

First, this is a rather stupid conclusion since while one might (I mean MIGHT) make the case that a good drafter factors into his selection the notion of injury proneness and picks acordingly and be correct. This concept is far easier to see in extreme cases (let's say one such as a player like Sobieski being an obvious talent who obviously had a series of injuries which quite likely will continue be a story in his career so one doesn't spend a first day pick on him even though he had first day talent) or in retrospect (who knew Gale Sayers would have his knee blown out and then who knew he would have such a great comeback from it with the help of Brian Picolo and who knew he would blow it out again and would you be silly enough not to draft him even if you knew what his injury story would be).

 

There is a reasonable case to be made that TD should not have gone after a smurf like Parrish due to fear he would not take NFL pounding with his little body. However, this case may still prove to be wrong depending upon how he heels and if he has a career (very possible based on his early showings) that equals that of the Redskins who popularized "The Smurfs" as a positive football nickname.

 

Even in the Parrish case the jury is still out on judging this draft. In the Everett case it simply looks like a bad break (almost literally) so i do not fault TD or MM for this. So I think the bust label for the 2005 draft is way way way premature.

 

Second is the bigger issue that someone strangely also lambasted the 2004 draft for the same flaw. Mostly i think this shows how silly some folks are in hating TD that they simply want to warp reality with their claims.

 

As far as the 2004 draft goes, TD picked two 2005 starters in the first round in Evans and Losman. The rest of the picks, Anderson, Euhus. McFarland and Smith all saw some PT last year (with Smith contributing a score) with Anderson threatening to even start this year.

 

Its still too early to judge this crew as Smith seems to be the one most in danger of getting cut and obviously the jury is out on Losman, but an assessment of the 2005 draft job is just silly.

 

Add to this that in my view a better way to judge a draft class in not actually some fantasy league assessment of the players but actually a more fact-based judgment of their contribution to the team.

 

By that standard the TD draft record is best judged by what has his drafting contributed to the Bills right here right now and if you want to be historical go no further back than the 2004 contributions.

 

By this model, I think one can judge TD's draft work as pretty darn good and actually it has been some lousy work on his part hiring his first HC and some miscalculation with extending the contract of Bledsoe that has undercut some very good contributions from his draft choices to a team which finally sported a winning record and missed the playoffs in the last game.

 

Specifically:

 

2001 draft- A very good draft class as he got two Pro Bowl performances from his first day picks (NC, Henry) resigned starter Schobel and will likely get 2005 starts from first day pick Edwards in addition to Schobel and Clements 3 first day picks equals 3 starters 4 years later is as much would want from a draft).

 

Add to this the he got a future resource in return for Henry (unexpected as the rules say one can only exoect them to play the free market at the end of their contract and they end up like JJ or Schobel). In addition, he did get Bills starts from a number of his picks (ranging in quality from these gone players to JJ's contributions for four years to Spoon's contributions for one year or Sullivan's career). The extra benefits to me balance out the lack of productivity of TDs second day picks that year.

 

2002- The Bills braintrusts weakest draft under TD if current trends keep going on a class which I think can be accurately judged after this year. It fits the same TD MO (and the rest of the NFL actually as Terrell Davis is the exception rather than the rule in terms of drft performance) as the first day was much more productive than the 2nd.

 

However, there remains reasonable hope that MW who was finally a productive player after the first couple of weeks, Reed has disappointed and I think will be gone as a bill probably later rather than sooner but he likely is not a contributor as a pick after his contract is done, Denney however, I think is really poorly and badly judged by much of the Bills faithful and actually has been a good player on a good D and the last first day choice Wire has disappointed though I think this is actually an outgrowth of bad decision-making by TD in choosing GW who I think can choose whether GW screwed up in choosing Wire (I disagree as I think he is a quality choice of a good bright guy with some NFL level skills just not enough skill to be a rookie starting safety) or he screwed up in how he developed and tried to use Wire (bingo IMHO).

 

The second day was not productive.

 

2003- We move from too early to judge to way to early. However, the prospects and tea leaves look pretty good for these picks as they do have two years of real production to judge on and already some real achievements.

 

Finally, we do see from a TD selected crew some second day pick contribuions as McGee has already made the Pro Bowl for his ST work In addition, first day pick Crowell and second day picks Aiken and Haggan have been major contributors to an ST which last year was one of the best in the league.

 

These achievements turn a A into an A+ if all things continue to work as they have in the past since first day choices have produced an RB who may become one of the best in the business, and an LDE who many hope will have a breakout year after earning the starting job.

 

2004- Likewise, this draft moves the bar from simply being way too early to draw and real conclusions to way way too early. However, the indications are good from some first year POTENTIAL Pro Bowler production from Evans and Losman being out starting QB in his second year.

 

Second day picks do not look half bad as Smith already has produced a TD and several good punt returns, Euhus has been average (as is actually pretty good for a rookie) and may start due to our failure to have a commanding TE and our weakness on OL will also likely get McFarland a shot to do the job or not.

 

For folks who want to complain that the Great Satan TD is horrible at drafting well simply point to the evidence in some specific form. His 2001 draft which he oversaw is one which has simply been productive for the Bills producing a couple of deserved Pro Bowl nods from the first three rounds and producing players who were good enough to start for the Bills in their first contracts and actually beyond. Knock him back a grade for like much of the rest of the NFL failing to produce a starter from his second days picks (it should be figurable and done somewhere to show how many starters were produced from NFL seond day picks in 2001 and my guess is that TD with is right there with a majority of NFL teams. Knock his grade down to a C if most teams have starters on their 2005 rosters who were picked by them on the second day, but I doubt this is true of most teams.

 

His 2002 draft was the weakest he oversaw with the Bills based on current indications and a real judgment will come after this season when we see how MW and Denney perform (and possibly Reed and Wire). However, even with this draft and with no production on the second day I think this one appears like it will be a C about average for NFL drafts. If MW becomes Ryan Leaf then I move it lower.

 

The TD record is uncertain for 2003 and on but based on initial production and indications (McGee, WM. Evans and Losman POTENTIAL I find it hard to be pessimistic about this unless it says more about you as a person than it does about TDs work.

[eball]

There is a thread below which claims TD really screwed up the 2005 draft becasue his first two picks suffered injuries which have laid them low.

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FFS, you should have stopped right there. why dignify such a ridiculous conclusion with a response?