Congratulations America!!

[Brandon]

yes but wouldnt you say generally that people are more wealthy now (as a whole) than they were before

i know i can

5 years ago gas was 56 cents a litre canadian and i was driving a dodge neon and i could have barely afforded it

now gas is 1.08 a litre and im driving a gas guzzler (caravan) and yes i could afford it but its tight on my wallet

by having a major recession yes prices do go down but it causes people not to be able to afford anything ,which makes prices drop even further to the point that it practically becomes a collapse

i wouldnt be surprised if the next great depression would be on its way

*knocks on wood*

406230[/snapback]

 

Nope, I wouldn't say that. More than likely, its a simple matter of your own personal situation improving. Oil (and fuel prices in general) are up nearly 300% the last two or three years. It is THE base resource in our economy and any change in fuel prices has a ripple effect on practically everything else in the economy. There's no way that the average Joe with his paycheck-to-paycheck life can eat this without repercussions.

 

People say that the impact of these prices will manifest first as a change in driving habits. That's BS. Most people drive because they have to. They drive to work, to buy food, whatever. Even the vehicle they drive is something they're tied to. An awful lot of people can't trade the gas guzzler for an econobox, both for practical use reasons and for the simple fact that many vehicle owners are upside down in their loans. The fuel prices may be killing them, but trading their vehicle will be even worse in the short term.

 

The chickens will initially come home to roost in the form of lowered discretionary spending. That's going to get the ball rolling through the entire economy and its going to come apart at the seams. The Christmas season, where discretionary spending is most closely tracked, is going to be the point where it becomes undeniable.

 

So yes, I think a major economic flameout is coming if these fuel prices persist.

[erynthered]

Say hello to a major recession.  Due date?  Early '06.

406226[/snapback]

 

 

You could always leave, no? You people always amaze me. The confidence you wield is breathtaking, only that you're an idiot. I feel better now.

[blzrul]

Nope, I wouldn't say that.  More than likely,  its a simple matter of your own personal situation improving.  Oil (and fuel prices in general) are up nearly 300% the last two or three years.  It is THE base resource in our economy and any change in fuel prices has a ripple effect on practically everything else in the economy.  There's no way that the average Joe with his paycheck-to-paycheck life can eat this without repercussions.

 

People say that the impact of these prices will manifest first as a change in driving habits.  That's BS.  Most people drive because they have to.  They drive to work,  to buy food,  whatever.  Even the vehicle they drive is something they're tied to.  An awful lot of people can't trade the gas guzzler for an econobox,  both for practical use reasons and for the simple fact that many vehicle owners are upside down in their loans.  The fuel prices may be killing them,  but trading their vehicle will be even worse in the short term. 

 

The chickens will initially come home to roost  in the form of lowered discretionary spending.  That's going to get the ball rolling through the entire economy and its going to come apart at the seams.  The Christmas season, where discretionary spending is most closely tracked,  is going to be the point where it becomes undeniable. 

 

So yes,  I think a major economic flameout is coming if these fuel prices persist.

406240[/snapback]

Actually I heard an oil industry analyst say essentially the same thing, particularly about the economy. So we either listen to the same radio stations while sitting in traffic or...you may know what you're talking about.

 

Or both of you could be absolutely wrong, it's hard to say. What's easy to see is that the oil industry continues to do excessively well, just trading on people's fears, the auto industry's recalcitrance, and the inability of the huge energy-devouring monster USA to move to alternative fuel sources more quickly.

[Brandon]

Actually I heard an oil industry analyst say essentially the same thing, particularly about the economy. So we either listen to the same radio stations while sitting in traffic or...you may know what you're talking about.

 

Or both of you could be absolutely wrong, it's hard to say.  What's easy to see is that the oil industry continues to do excessively well, just trading on people's fears, the auto industry's recalcitrance, and the inability of the huge energy-devouring monster USA to move to alternative fuel sources more quickly.

406246[/snapback]

 

Its common sense. Look, I don't post much on this board, but I've read your posts and you and I have polar opposite political views. But there are some things that are blatantly obvious and this is one of them. This can't continue. My family owns a small manufacturing business. Prices from our suppliers have skyrocketed. A quantity of steel that cost $8,000 in 2002 costs $20,000 now, primarily due to shipping costs. Our delivery fees have tripled. Who pays for it? Our customers pay for it. Do you think they've had a corresponding 250% wage increase in three years? Hell no, they haven't. They can't afford it, we can't afford to keep our prices static, and neither can anyone else. It can't continue.

 

And to the other poster, yeah, we may leave, because like many other businesses, this sh-- is going to drive us OUT of business.

[lobottomee]

High oil / gasoline prices are a good thing for this country. And having spent 15 years drilling oil wells I have some idea what I'm talking about. Here's the deal; there's only so much of the stuff, and sooner or later it'll run out. For years we've had relatively low prices for oil and gas. No one gave a thought to it. Drive to the store for a candy bar? No problem, hop in the car and go. Drive by yourself to work even when you can share with your neighbor? Yup, I'd rather be by myself. Gas mileage? What's that? You get the point.

But now that gasoline is $2.50 a gallon, people are thinking about. Look around on the freeway, you see people carpooling. Want to make $2.50 a gallon gas $1.25 again? Drive half as much; share a ride to work. Alternative energy is now becoming competitive. Guess what? We're a bunch of greedy bastards in this country. If there's a buck to made, someone will make it, and when a buck can be made in alternative energy the market will take off. And money begets money, so someone else will come along and cut the price because they figured out how to do it cheaper.

Bush may be a bumbling dolt when it comes to public speaking, but he's no fool. The strategic oil reserve is full, and Chuck and Hillary's bellyaching about opening it up to lower gasoline prices 10 cents a gallon isn't going to change Bush's mind. It isn't called "strategic" for giggles, it's there to keep this country from being brought to it's knees by some nut case in the middle east.

High oil prices will do more to slow global warming than any treaty ever will. High prices get me off my ass and make me do a damn grocery list so I only have to make 1 trip. They make windmills attractive, solar heaters affordable, and steer the finest technical people we have in this country to do what should have been done a long time ago; make energy supplies match energy use!

Our lives won't end because oil prices are high. But they will be different. Ultimately our lives will be better. For years, we've been eating our seed corn, and now that the pantry is getting bare we're getting scared. Great! That makes us pay attention. But there's lots of alternatives out there, we just need to go after them. Yeah, it's gonna take some work and some time. So what doesn't that's worthwhile?

Lastly, think about this. If every person in this country cut their usage of gasoline by 2 gallons per week oil imports to this country would drop by 1/3. Piss on Iraq. Bring back our boys and let the camel jockeys kill each other. We won't need them anymore!

[Brandon]

High oil / gasoline prices are a good thing for this country.  And having spent 15 years drilling oil wells I have some idea what I'm talking about.  Here's the deal; there's only so much of the stuff, and sooner or later it'll run out.  For years we've had relatively low prices for oil and gas.  No one gave a thought to it.  Drive to the store for a candy bar?  No problem, hop in the car and go.  Drive by yourself to work even when you can share with your neighbor?  Yup, I'd rather be by myself.  Gas mileage?  What's that?  You get the point.

     But now that gasoline is $2.50 a gallon, people are thinking about.  Look around on the freeway, you see people carpooling.  Want to make $2.50 a gallon gas $1.25 again?  Drive half as much; share a ride to work.  Alternative energy is now becoming competitive.  Guess what?  We're a bunch of greedy bastards in this country.  If there's a buck to made, someone will make it, and when a buck can be made in alternative energy the market will take off.  And money begets money, so someone else will come along and cut the price because they figured out how to do it cheaper. 

     Bush may be a bumbling dolt when it comes to public speaking, but he's no fool.  The strategic oil reserve is full, and Chuck and Hillary's bellyaching about opening it up to lower gasoline prices 10 cents a gallon isn't going to change Bush's mind.  It isn't called "strategic" for giggles, it's there to keep this country from being brought to it's knees by some nut case in the middle east. 

     High oil prices will do more to slow global warming than any treaty ever will.  High prices get me off my ass and make me do a damn grocery list so I only have to make 1 trip.  They make windmills attractive, solar heaters affordable, and steer the finest technical people we have in this country to do what should have been done a long time ago; make energy supplies match energy use! 

     Our lives won't end because oil prices are high.  But they will be different.  Ultimately our lives will be better.  For years, we've been eating our seed corn, and now that the pantry is getting bare we're getting scared.  Great!  That makes us pay attention.  But there's lots of alternatives out there, we just need to go after them.  Yeah, it's gonna take some work and some time.  So what doesn't that's worthwhile?

     Lastly, think about this.  If every person in this country cut their usage of gasoline by 2 gallons per week oil imports to this country would drop by 1/3.  Piss on Iraq.  Bring back our boys and let the camel jockeys kill each other.  We won't need them anymore!

406256[/snapback]

 

I wonder what consolation that will be to the worker who loses his job and can't feed his family because his employer has to close their doors? Not that I think you're wrong, mind you. Its just that its not as easy and painless as that.

[philburger1]

Lastly, think about this.  If every person in this country cut their usage of gasoline by 2 gallons per week oil imports to this country would drop by 1/3.  Piss on Iraq.  Bring back our boys and let the camel jockeys kill each other.  We won't need them anymore!

406256[/snapback]

 

 

Yah! We must conserve energy, shrink our economy, and car pool, so that China can get oil cheaper to fund their expansion and then their assualt on Taiwan and then Japan...

[erynthered]

High oil / gasoline prices are a good thing for this country.  And having spent 15 years drilling oil wells I have some idea what I'm talking about.  Here's the deal; there's only so much of the stuff, and sooner or later it'll run out.  For years we've had relatively low prices for oil and gas.  No one gave a thought to it.  Drive to the store for a candy bar?  No problem, hop in the car and go.  Drive by yourself to work even when you can share with your neighbor?  Yup, I'd rather be by myself.  Gas mileage?  What's that?  You get the point.

    But now that gasoline is $2.50 a gallon, people are thinking about.  Look around on the freeway, you see people carpooling.  Want to make $2.50 a gallon gas $1.25 again?  Drive half as much; share a ride to work.  Alternative energy is now becoming competitive.  Guess what?  We're a bunch of greedy bastards in this country.  If there's a buck to made, someone will make it, and when a buck can be made in alternative energy the market will take off.  And money begets money, so someone else will come along and cut the price because they figured out how to do it cheaper. 

    Bush may be a bumbling dolt when it comes to public speaking, but he's no fool.  The strategic oil reserve is full, and Chuck and Hillary's bellyaching about opening it up to lower gasoline prices 10 cents a gallon isn't going to change Bush's mind.  It isn't called "strategic" for giggles, it's there to keep this country from being brought to it's knees by some nut case in the middle east. 

    High oil prices will do more to slow global warming than any treaty ever will.  High prices get me off my ass and make me do a damn grocery list so I only have to make 1 trip.  They make windmills attractive, solar heaters affordable, and steer the finest technical people we have in this country to do what should have been done a long time ago; make energy supplies match energy use! 

    Our lives won't end because oil prices are high.  But they will be different.  Ultimately our lives will be better.  For years, we've been eating our seed corn, and now that the pantry is getting bare we're getting scared.  Great!  That makes us pay attention.  But there's lots of alternatives out there, we just need to go after them.  Yeah, it's gonna take some work and some time.  So what doesn't that's worthwhile?

    Lastly, think about this.  If every person in this country cut their usage of gasoline by 2 gallons per week oil imports to this country would drop by 1/3.  Piss on Iraq.  Bring back our boys and let the camel jockeys kill each other.  We won't need them anymore!

406256[/snapback]

 

 

Nice post, though your Handle should be applied to brandon. Thank for your insight.

 

[Brandon]

Nice post, though your Handle should be applied to brandon. Thank for your insight.

 

406265[/snapback]

 

You should know all about it, considering all you've contributed to the discussion with your one line responses.

 

At any rate, thank you for reminding me why I no longer visit this political 'discussion' board. There are too many blowhards with overinflated opinions of themselves over here. I may be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time, and it certainly won't be the last. But you, I'm pretty sure that you've never been wrong, at least in your own mind.

[erynthered]

You should know all about it,  considering all you've contributed to the discussion with your one line responses.

406266[/snapback]

 

 

Your right. But your still an idiot.

 

Please tell me where you get your news?

 

Oh great, you add your bull/sh*t after my post, nice edit. You little weasel. You're right, your little peon self shouldnt come here. There, I've told you twice that you're right, make you feel better?

 

Answer the question.

[erynthered]

So you're clear, this is what you said "Say hello to a major recession. Due date? Early '06."

 

 

Please tell me how and why and what you base this educated decision on.

[Brandon]

Your right. But your still an idiot.

 

Please tell me where you get your news?

 

Oh great, you add  your bull/sh*t after my post, nice edit. You little weasel. You're right, your little peon self shouldnt come here. There, I've told you twice that you're right, make you feel better?

 

Answer the question. 

406267[/snapback]

 

Your constant name calling proves my point.

[erynthered]

Your constant name calling proves my point.

406276[/snapback]

 

 

If I said I was sorry, would you tell me how we're going to be in a recession in 06?

 

I need to plan. Pleae help me.

[Brandon]

So you're clear, this is what you said "Say hello to a major recession. Due date? Early '06."

Please tell me how and why and what you base this educated decision on.

406272[/snapback]

 

You see, if you had actually asked this question to begin with instead of acting like a child, we wouldn't have this little bitching contest.

 

Its nothing more than a guess, based upon the time I think it will take the effects of what I believe will be a poor Christmas season. And yes, I could be wrong. I'm not omnipotent. I can't see the future. It was offered up as an opinion and little more.

[erynthered]

You see,  if you had actually asked this question to begin with instead of acting like a child,  we wouldn't have this little bitching contest.

 

Its nothing more than a guess,  based upon the time I think it will take the effects of what I believe will be a poor Christmas season.  And yes,  I could be wrong. I'm not omnipotent.  I can't see the future.  It was offered up as an opinion and little more.

406280[/snapback]

 

 

Well, without any statistical proof, or any basis of your opinion, that makes you an idiot, no?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for playing.

 

 

 

Ah, Just kidding

 

 

I think you may be right, though I hope not.

 

What? What?

[Brandon]

Well, without any statistical proof, or any basis of your opinion, that makes you an idiot, no?

Thanks for playing.

Ah, Just kidding

I think you may be right, though I hope not.

 

What? What?

406285[/snapback]

 

First of all, I think we both need to take a step back and calm down. If we can discuss this in a civil manner and start over, I'm willing to do so.

 

There is a basis for my opinion. Its really not even complex enough to necessitate the use of a bunch of economic indicators and statistics that can be read either way depending upon whether one sees the glass as half empty or half full. No, I see it within my local community. I live in a small, blue-collar town of about 25,000 people with an economy based on agriculture and manufacturing, with another 100,000 within a 25 mile radius. Although my family also owns a small manufacturing business as mentioned earlier, I chose to enter the banking industry.

 

A lot of our customers and a lot of people in the community are barely making enough to survive. A lot of them are bringing home $1200-1500/month after taxes from the factories. Some will make twice that, which is good money around here. An extra $60-80/month for gas is eating them alive. The inflation brought on by the higher fuel prices certainly doesn't help, either. The agriculture industry here is belly up and survives on federal subsidies and a few rich farmers. These people can't afford another hit. They certainly can't afford any unnecessary spending. That's why I think that when Christmas rolls around, I think we're going to get a wake-up call. And sure, one can argue that its just one small town, and I can grant you that. That said, I doubt we're in a unique situation and even though one town really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, a good number of them together can.

 

I'd like to be optimistic about it and I'm not going to assign political blame, but, I think its going to have to get better soon if we're going to get out of this without an economic downturn. I believe that the fuel prices, with their potential to impact the economy on such a wide scale basis, is going to be the determining factor. If it sticks at over $2.50/gallon, I think we're in for trouble.

[Ghost of BiB]

The saving grace is that it IS in the futures market. If you take a look at a long term graph of just about any futures, there will probably be a pattern of spikes and valleys over time. Oil is in a spike. Unless artificially skewered (i.e., major terrorist attack on ME oil infrastructure), the prices should balance and fall over time.

[jimshiz]

How long before some righty PPP comes over and claims it has nothing to do with Bush, it is becuase we don't have enough refineries!!!

406141[/snapback]

 

18 hours !!!

[meazza]

The saving grace is that it IS in the futures market. If you take a look at a long term graph of just about any futures, there will probably be a pattern of spikes and valleys over time. Oil is in a spike. Unless artificially skewered (i.e., major terrorist attack on ME oil infrastructure), the prices should balance and fall over time.

406500[/snapback]

 

gas prices will never fall

cars are selling without control

this price hike only affects the people who are not making as much money

but high income earners such as accountants/lawyers and such has increased because there are more educated people out there

that means even though gas is higher, sure people will still make the more practical choice but up to a limit, they will still get something comfortable, i dont see a trend of only econoboxes from middle income people

ford announced recently that their sales of light trucks has increased 40% since they introduced the employee discount to everybody, basically people think that saving 15-20% on a purchase of a car will cover the cost of the higher gas price for them

basically the only way you could understand the consumer is if you think of a consumer as a child in a candy store

another example

in italy, where im from the price of a litre of gas is about 2$ EURO , yet the trend is that every italian have their own car, and in most towns the bus doesnt exist

this is in a country where unemployment is horrible

if there is a recession prices will stabilize to these levels but will never fall

[Ghost of BiB]

gas prices will never fall

cars are selling without control

this price hike only affects the people who are not making as much money

but high income earners such as accountants/lawyers and such has increased because there are more educated people out there

that means even though gas is higher, sure people will still make the more practical choice but up to a limit, they will still get something comfortable, i dont see a trend of only econoboxes from middle income people

ford announced recently that their sales of light trucks has increased 40% since they introduced the employee discount to everybody, basically people think that saving 15-20% on a purchase of a car will cover the cost of the higher gas price for them

basically the only way you could understand the consumer is if you think of a consumer as a child in a candy store

another example

in italy, where im from the price of a litre of gas is about 2$ EURO , yet the trend is that every italian have their own car, and in most towns the bus doesnt exist

this is in a country where unemployment is horrible

if there is a recession prices will stabilize to these levels but will never fall

406699[/snapback]

 

Uh...OK....

 

(Steps away carefully)