Concerned about slip in Dee performance

[eSJayDee]

I was thinking last night that we might have some reason for concern about the fact that we have more major contributors on Dee more likely to decline than we have that are likely to improve.

Granted, I don't think we'll totally fall apart, but sometimes for individual players, that decline is pretty quick and sharp.

Of our starters, I think we have 3 players who would be more prone to improve based on age & playing experience (Kelsay, Edwards, & McGee). I'd categorize Schobel in his prime. Then we have Adams, 3 LBs, & 2 S all on the wrong side of 30 & w/ significant playing time under their belt.

Considering this and the fact that they set the bar so high last year, I think we're more likely to see a decline (but hopefully not much) than an improvement. On the plus side, they'll have another year of the system under their belt (TV might do better w/ more experience at his new pos) & are returning largely unchanged personnel wise.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

You can make yourself sick worrying about every little thing. Resist the urge.

[boomerjamhead]

I for one want to see some improvement from the 'Dee' this year. Consecutive #2 rankings have me a little worried that they aren't improving on 'Dee'.

 

That is unacceptable.

[IDBillzFan]

Man, did this thread title concern me. I thought you were referring to yourself in the third person.

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

Aaron Schobel- 28

 

Sam Adams- 32

 

Ron Edwards- 26

 

Chris Kelsay- 25

 

Jeff Posey- 29

 

London Fletcher- 30

 

Takeo Spikes- 28

 

Nate Clements- 25

 

Terrence Mcgee- 24

 

Troy Vincent- 34

 

Lawyer Milloy- 31

 

avg age- 28. Contrary to the opinion expressed in this thread, our defense is not "old" and could very well expect improvement based on age in our dline, and cb's. I also expect to see more contribution this year from our lb depth. We still need a viable ss option should milloy get hurt, and more depth at dt but other than that, our defense should have a solid few more seasons in them as long as we manage to keep some of the core players, and find depth that could push for starting time at the end of this season to next year.

[Sound_n_Fury]

Jeez! Don't scare me like that. I thought you were referring to Twisted Sister!

 

Now I know Dee's getting a little older, but hey....aren't we all.

 

Dee Snyder

[boomerjamhead]

Jeez!  Don't scare me like that.  I thought you were referring to Twisted Sister! 

 

Now I know Dee's getting a little older, but hey....aren't we all. 

 

Dee Snyder

404894[/snapback]

 

Are you one of Rome's clones?

[Buftex]

I was thinking last night that we might have some reason for concern about the fact that we have more major contributors on Dee more likely to decline than we have that are likely to improve.

Granted, I don't think we'll totally fall apart, but sometimes for individual players, that decline is pretty quick and sharp.

Of our starters, I think we have 3 players who would be more prone to improve based on age & playing experience (Kelsay, Edwards, & McGee).  I'd categorize Schobel in his prime.  Then we have Adams, 3 LBs, & 2 S all on the wrong side of 30 & w/ significant playing time under their belt.

Considering this and the fact that they set the bar so high last year, I think we're more likely to see a decline (but hopefully not much) than an improvement.  On the plus side, they'll have another year of the system under their belt (TV might do better w/ more experience at his new pos) & are returning largely unchanged personnel wise.

404767[/snapback]

 

I understand your point, but from what I have seen/heard, it looks like we may be developing some decent young linebacking talent. I am a little concerned about our age up the middle in the secondary, and the DL.

[justnzane]

Jeez!  Don't scare me like that.  I thought you were referring to Twisted Sister! 

 

Now I know Dee's getting a little older, but hey....aren't we all. 

 

Dee Snyder

404894[/snapback]

 

I WANNA ROCK!!!

[eSJayDee]

Man, did this thread title concern me. I thought you were referring to yourself in the third person.

 

I said Dee, not Pee

but now that you mention it...

[Gavin in Va Beach]

Our Dee performance might lag, but our Deez Nutz performance should more then make up for it...

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

From my perspective the D age situation revolves not only around their age and status but whether there is a credible plan B if they slip in performance or get injured my depth chart sense is this and I am of course curious what others think.

 

LCB- McGee- clearly on the upside of his career and already a Pro Bolwer at KR. Struggled at times when thrust into the CB starter role with injury to Vincent but improved with experience though he will need to prove himself as also being headed toward Pro Bowl position play.

 

Greer is a good back-up at this spot and even capable of making the occaisional game critical platy. I am more than comfortable with him as a nickel. Vincent is still around if there is a total breakdown at LCB and for a short time.

 

RCB- Clements- Also on the upside as far as development and near the top of his game for position play as he made the Pro Bowl last year.

 

Thomas had good promise as the back-up and performed as the nickel though injury has made him uncertain here until he plays which I understand will be this year. Hill has looked good as a draftee and makes the CB position one of great depth on this team.

 

SS- This is the most uncertain area of the DB as though Milloy proved naysayers wrong when some wrote him off as done when NE let him go prior to the 2003 season (he still is a smart player who tackles well) he did miss 4 or 5 games last that happens more and more with older players. He probably will keep gradually declining until he can't go anymore, but he is a candidate for an unpredictable possible sudden drop-off in production which makes having a plan B all important though one hopes it is not necessary.

 

Back-up Wire has always struggled in pass coverage and can be replaced. His is of an age and has the pedigree to suddenly improve, but even though he clearly is a quality guy has shown no signs of being the SS we need as he was poorly developed and thrown in as starter SS as a rookie when he simply was not good enough to do the job.

 

Health and continued performance by an older player is probably most crticial here for the Bills D.

 

FS- Vincent showed great performance here in the few games he played as McGee being forced to develop by injury prompted the Bills to make this move all (including Vincent) planned on in 2005 or 2006. Again being an older player and with last year's injury recurring nicks are a real concern and back-up FS is an important issue.

 

Baker was quite impressive as a UDFA who had to take a starting role. Since I feel better about Vincent than Milloy (though I hope and assume both will perform) I almost wish Baker was a potential FS back-up as I feel better about him than Wire.

 

Leonhard shows some interesting promise as a hitter and we will see this pre-season whether he has Baker like chops as a cover guy or Wire like deficits. I do not seem him as an answer in 2005 but certainly as a prospect.

 

WLB- Spikes is a Pro Bowler at the top of his game and even if he declines he is so respected and high in performance he will be good this year unless hurt.

 

Crowell has shown some good production on ST, but clearly would have to step up and show more if he were forced to start. he might do this, but has had no chance to show this for sure and because Spikes is so good even if Crowell impressed this would be a big drop-off. Crowell was highly regarded enough as a rookie to command a first day draft pick and has shown sone signs of being a player however, given Spikes history and playing ability this is an issue one wouldn't worry about as we will just have to deal with life.

 

MLB- Fletcher at 8 years he has shown few signs of slipping, but he is at the top of his game right now and will not get younger. He should reaasonably be expected to produce again this year but I would be surprised if there are not more serious decline questions asked next year. As a shorter player, his speed and ability are a big part of his game and thus he is vulnerable to age affecting his performance more than others. However, part of his speed is that he is a smart player as shown by him taking and commanding the unquestioned pulicly captaincy of the D despite there being D performers all around him who made the Pro Bowl when he was overlooked. Back-up is important here but not game critical. If nicks slow him down look for him not to maintain his ST role as short-return guy first.

 

Haggan has also shown some good ST performance but little time as a position player so he is an unknown. he was one of the last players drafted so if called upon there is little in his pedigree to expect him to step up. However, he dropped in the draft below where many thought his talent would have him go and he has shown no signs as a pro of any issues which caused him to drop. #rd string back-up Exekial shows some development promise but is not an issue regarding replacement of our starter if necessary. Again this is an issue to watch but not of concern as Fletcher is just hitting 30.

 

SLB- Some posters tend to hyperventialate over Posey who has disappointed them. However, it appears to say more about the failings of the posters in assessing play than any failings of Posey. A more in depth analysis of how Gray runs the D as was done in earlier in depth research by TSW poster CD Nittam and which I have done in passing noting his play actually shows the performance by Posey for the Bills to be quite impressive the last two years and as good as Sikes/Fletcher are there is a credible case to be made that Posey is near (not as good but near) as important to the good statistical results the Bills have registered the last two years.

 

Folks need to recognize that he is a quality player merely through the fact he has started every game two years in a row and logged lots of PT for a D whicvh has performed. The complaints of some posters that they though he turned the wrong way or took bad angles even if true has not been accompanied with any objective showings that the player he likely had either scored or got a big gain because of the observations noted.

 

Add to this that the more in depth analyses seem to indicate that what Posey does bring to the table is the ability to make a good read and anticipate whether the O is going to run or pass on the play and also to mix up with Gray's general guidance and planning his dropping back into coverage or attacking the run appropriately on each play. Upon analysis I am even more impressed with our starting LB corps across the board.

 

We seem more solid at back-up SLB than the other LB spotes, Stamer has shown some good athletiticism when he is used and Gray uses him as a position player more than Crowell or Haggan so he should be prepared to answer the call if needed. As good as Stamer may be, i see no signs that he would/should replace Posey who is a couple of inches taller, a hair heavier and yet seems more nimble than Stamer. Stamer has not shown at all that he can make the same quality of reads as the reaching his peak vet Posey after signing as an FA in 03.

 

Of particular note here though is the observation that to some extent in the zone blitz, there appears to be a credible case to make that the Posey drop-off or run stuff responsibiity is actually backed up by Denney who long arm span and atheleticism allow him to play a crtical role for Posey who often lines up on the DL as the strongside rush guy gives me a lot of confidence we can fill in for Posey if necessary be it Stamer on earlier downs and Denney at cruch time.

 

LDE- Kelsay has really stepped up here and as a young player developing his craft this will potentially be the year where he develop into being enough of a sackmaster that he draws more attention. As best as I can tell the sacks Kelsay has earned are due more to his persistence and motor than to his being a natural sackster. If Kelsay has gained the skills to get off the dime well and beat an opponent with his first move or developed a quality second move so he is quickly in rather than his good performance simply plugging away the zone blitz can hum. If opposing Ds need to use two players to account for Kelsay he really frees up Schobel or provides great potential for LBs firing in. he may do this, we'll see.

 

Denney is refered to as a co-starter with Kelsay by the braintrust. Denney clearly does not have the sack skills to compete with Kelsay, however, I think this co-starter rubric actually comes from Denney showing large wingspan and skills to be the sole back-up to both DEs in a D which relies on DL rotation. Further, Denney actually excels more at runstiffing than sacking so he has been used as a DT (my guess it was use of a 3 DE package on 3rd down which led to both Phat Pat and Adams being sat on 3rd down which cause Adams to go ballistic at one point last year. I think folks are holding Denney being not a good enough player to even play his first season as he had some leverage issues which were solved. He really is a solid Bill and his flexibility is one of the things which makes the zone blitz work so well.

 

LT- Adams like Milloy is probably the player of an age most likely to have a sudden downturn in productvity. However, already in the scrimmage against the Pack Adams showed that he still has one of the quickest and most deceptive first steps in the game. He earned his Pro Bowl nod last year and the idea that Adamswho was renowned for going on vacation half or more of the game even in his hayday as a player would actually B word publicly at the coaches for not letting him play on thid down was phenomenal to see.

 

He clealry in the backside of his career in his 12th year. Yet, the new found diligence has been accompanied by weight loss and Adams being in better shape. Given the scrimmage performance, him starting all 16 for the first time in 4 seasons last year and recording over 40 tackles for the first time since 1997 while back-up status is a clear issue it is not outlandish at all to hope for another very good year from Adams.

 

The back-up issue is a concern though as behind him on the depth chart is Justin Bannan. Bannan impressed his rookie year but failed to develop enough that he was used on the O (successfully) in the redzone and this off-season was briefly categorized fully as a G (until the signing of Anderson and loss of Phat Pat made it necessary for Bannan to come back to DT.

 

I think that the actual back-up here if Adams can't go is that we will go to a 3 DE scheme using Denney rather than go to Bannan.

 

RT- Edwards is the #1 and he is on the upside of his career. he disappointed as a rookie as those drafted both before and after him started for a poor 3-13 Bills team. If he couldn't play on that squad it was a problem. However, he has slowly improved from being a substandard stater his second year to be a quality back-up last year. This showing and him retaining the speed which got him multiple sacks while also putting on some bulk critical to run stopping DT means he may well be a good player this year.

 

Anderson is behind him on the depth chart and this player was well regarded enough that he also is a serious candidate for the opening left by Phat Pat's leaving though he has none ofthe actual production Edwards showed which makes him a better bet.

 

RDE- Schobel is about to hit or in his prime.

 

Denney and the one-blittz scheme were really the back-ups here where there was no one on the depth chart at RDE after the IR to Ritzman.

 

This year Osunde has already passed Ritzman and will get a look see for spot duty in the DL rotation.

 

Overall, in addition to this worry about age the loss of PW has been put forward as reasons for a decline in the D performance.

 

On the contrary, with good use of the scheme as Gray has shown for two years, i see no drop-off from the loss of PW who after all even as starter was on the field for less than 2/3 of the D snaps (him routinely sitting on third downs does not fully explain this, it was intentional in terms of how the scheme was employed and the D has players who had good success even with the good skills of PW.

 

As far as age, I would say that IF Milloy gets nicked, AND Wire fails to step up, AND no one else from the FS's can step over AND there in scheme or application fix to make up for this we will have to look to the waiver wire. This is not good but not impossible. The only other age issue I see is that Adams is a bit long in the tooth. However, he produced last year and over his Bills career to show signs that even this situation will work out and I am not worried about the age issue in any untoward way.

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

I'm not overly concerned about Milloy. Last year was the first time he was injured. I'd like to know why ffs you're more concerned about milloy than vincent. Vincent over the past few seasons has had a string of injuries and this season is moving to a new position full time. While I feel better about the fs position than I do ss, when it comes to depth as Rashad Baker showed he has some ability to step in if need be, and down the road could be a reliable starter, As far as the current starters go I feel a lot better about ss than I do fs. You'd be hard pressed to find a better blitzer than milloy from the ss position, and he's also really good against the run. While his pass coverage isn't the greatest what ss is other than ed reed? he does well enough in this area. I have to see Vincent stay healthy through a season which he hasn't done since 2000. I expect Rashad Baker to start at least 2-3 games for us at some point this season, which I think we'll be fine with. Now if wire had to start 2-3 games for us.....

[eSJayDee]

From my perspective the D age situation revolves not only ...

I am not worried about the age issue in any untoward way.

 

Well, after reading most of your response all I can say is "wow". What occurred to me is that you just wrote in excess of 2500 words in less than 2 hours (Probably substantially less. I'm just basing that on the time stamps of our posts.) for a 'hobby'. Back in school that was like a 2 week assignment!

Please don't get me wrong, I enjoy your posts so keep it up. But... that's a lot.

[John from Riverside]

First....fakesunny....all I can say is....damn

 

Second....I love the #2 overall ranking....truly I do.....but what I wouldn't give to have that #2 ranking drop to 4th or 5th and have our offense go from last in the league to 9th or 10th........

 

That is why we cant get into the playoffs.....lack of balance on the team....

[TigerJ]

Troy Vincent, Lawyer Milloy, and Sam Adams are the only 30+ players on the defense. London Fletcher is just 30. Troy is backed up by the very promising Rashad Baker, who has playing time and acquitted himself well. Lawyer is backed by Coy Wire who has had trouble transitioning from his college career as a RB and LB. However, he has worked a great deal in the offseason, and there are reports he is much improved. I assume if Adams went down Tim Aderson would start, and pair with Ron Edwards. There would be a drop off with any of those backups, but not so much that any one substitution would jeopardize the whole defense. If all three of those starters went down, yeah, the defense would struggle at that point, but I'm not real worried that it's going to happen.

[R. Rich]

SLB- Some posters tend to hyperventialate over Posey who has disappointed them. However, it appears to say more about the failings of the posters in assessing play than any failings of Posey.  A more in depth analysis of how Gray runs the D as was done in earlier in depth research by TSW poster CD Nittam and which I have done in passing noting his play actually shows the performance by Posey for the Bills to be quite impressive the last two years and as good as Sikes/Fletcher are there is a credible case to be made that Posey is near (not as good but near) as important to the good statistical results the Bills have registered the last two years.

 

Folks need to recognize that he is a quality player merely through the fact he has started every game two years in a row and logged lots of PT for a D whicvh has performed. The complaints of some posters that they though he turned the wrong way or took bad angles even if true has not been accompanied with any objective showings that the player he likely had either scored or got a big gain because of the observations noted.

 

Add to this that the more in depth analyses seem to indicate that what Posey does bring to the table is the ability to make a good read and anticipate whether the O is going to run or pass on the play and also to mix up with Gray's general guidance and planning his dropping back into coverage or attacking the run appropriately on each play. Upon analysis I am even more impressed with our starting LB corps across the board.

 

404945[/snapback]

 

Good point about Posey. Those who are quick to dismiss him should realize that he isn't asked to perform the way TKO does. For what his role is, he seems to do it well enough.

 

 

Troy Vincent, Lawyer Milloy, and Sam Adams are the only 30+ players on the defense.  London Fletcher is just 30.  Troy is backed up by the very promising Rashad Baker, who has playing time and acquitted himself well.  Lawyer is backed by Coy Wire who has had trouble transitioning from his college career as a RB and LB.  However, he has worked a great deal in the offseason, and there are reports he is much improved.  I assume if Adams went down Tim Aderson would start, and pair with Ron Edwards.  There would be a drop off with any of those backups, but not so much that any one substitution would jeopardize the whole defense.  If all three of those starters went down, yeah, the defense would struggle at that point, but I'm not real worried that it's going to happen.

404997[/snapback]

 

 

Good post, Tiger. I concur about Wire. I like his passion on the field (as long as it doesn't result in personal fouls), but he does look a bit lost @ times playing SS. I hope he does improve to the point where he could be considered the heir apparent to replace Milloy, because the guy's all heart.

[Typical TBD Guy]

Actually, I think our "Dee" is still fairly young. We only have 7 players who are in their late 20's or beyond:

 

DE Ryan Denney (1 season left on contract)

DT Sam Adams (2 seasons left on contract)

MLB London FLetcher (2 seasons left on contract)

OLB Takeo Spikes (3 seasons left on contract)

OLB Jeff Posey (2 seasons left on contract)

SS Lawyer Milloy (2 seasons left on contract)

FS Troy Vincent (5 seasons left on contract)

 

Of those 7, Denney and Posey can be replaced pretty easily once their respective contracts are up. And if we wanted to re-sign these 2, it wouldn't be too difficult.

 

That leaves 5, each of which are significant contributors on the field as well as leaders in the locker room.

 

However, please note that we have 2 years to replace 3 of these 5, and 3 years to replace Spikes and Vincent (let's assume Vincent doesn't see the last 2 years of his contract).

 

So how is this a crisis???!!! We have 3 whole years to replace 5 important players. That's 3 more drafts and 3 more offseasons of free agency to find 5 replacements.

 

And that's assuming none of the 5 important players can still play after their current contracts are up, which is probably false. Lots of NFL players can still make big contributions well past the age of 30. So if any of these guys were still quality players at the end of their contracts, we could resign them with more salary cap-favorable contracts if we hadn't found adequate replacements through free agency or the draft by that time.

 

So in conclusion: RELAX.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Well, after reading most of your response all I can say is "wow".  What occurred to me is that you just wrote in excess of 2500 words in less than 2 hours (Probably substantially less. I'm just basing that on the time stamps of our posts.) for a 'hobby'.  Back in school that was like a 2 week assignment!

Please don't get me wrong, I enjoy your posts so keep it up.  But... that's a lot.

404955[/snapback]

 

No prob, and i will do my best.

 

I lucked out today because i wrote most of this while listening in on a conference call I had to be there for if called upon but it pretty clearly was not in my area of activity so I really only half listened and got to write.

 

Its quite nice when life cooperates to let you do what you want to do which is follow and think about the Bills.

[The_Real]

Aaron Schobel-  28

 

Sam Adams- 32

 

Ron Edwards- 26

 

Chris Kelsay- 25

 

Jeff Posey- 29

 

London Fletcher- 30

 

Takeo Spikes-  28

 

Nate Clements- 25

 

Terrence Mcgee- 24

 

Troy Vincent- 34

 

Lawyer Milloy- 31

 

avg age-  28.  Contrary to the opinion expressed in this thread, our defense is not "old"  and could very well expect improvement based on age  in our dline, and cb's.  I also expect to see more contribution this year from our lb depth.  We still need a viable ss option should milloy get hurt, and more depth at dt but other than that, our defense should have a solid few more seasons in them as long as we manage to keep some of the core players, and find depth that could push for starting time at the end of this season to next year.

404890[/snapback]

 

Thank god someone posted this. Our d is relatively young minus our safeties and the new big fat on the line. I think we'll be fine.

 

I hope.