plenzmd1 Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 Listening to the Czaban show this morning and this fantasy guy pulls this stat. Willis average per carrry Running Left---- 5.3 Running Right----3.1 Number one surprised the hell out of me. Number two, with two new guys on the left side and guys stacking the box with the JP, are we DOOMED. Number three, my sense was big Mike and CV were are our strengths on the line, but this sure does not support that theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt in KC Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 I'm, eager to see how CV and MW progress this preseason. In the scrimmage, the left side of the line dramatically outperformed the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 Listening to the Czaban show this morning and this fantasy guy pulls this stat. Willis average per carrry Running Left---- 5.3 Running Right----3.1 Number one surprised the hell out of me. Number two, with two new guys on the left side and guys stacking the box with the JP, are we DOOMED. Number three, my sense was big Mike and CV were are our strengths on the line, but this sure does not support that theory 404640[/snapback] I could possibly find a stat to back this up (if I wasn't so lazy) but I was under the impression Willis ran right a lot more than he ran left. Maybe, maybe not, I thought I remember hearing that. It certainly doesn't change the averages, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ch19079 Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 Listening to the Czaban show this morning and this fantasy guy pulls this stat. Willis average per carrry Running Left---- 5.3 Running Right----3.1 Number one surprised the hell out of me. Number two, with two new guys on the left side and guys stacking the box with the JP, are we DOOMED. Number three, my sense was big Mike and CV were are our strengths on the line, but this sure does not support that theory 404640[/snapback] when you run to the left, the ROG and C pull and block for the RB. and its safe to say Valarrial was better than smith last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scribo Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 Listening to the Czaban show this morning and this fantasy guy pulls this stat. Willis average per carrry Running Left---- 5.3 Running Right----3.1 Number one surprised the hell out of me. Number two, with two new guys on the left side and guys stacking the box with the JP, are we DOOMED. Number three, my sense was big Mike and CV were are our strengths on the line, but this sure does not support that theory 404640[/snapback] Those averages are without any context. To fully understand what those stats mean, I think we would need to know how often he ran to each side. I would even like to know in what quarters he ran to each side and what the down and to-go situations were. Maybe he was running to the right much more often when he we looking for short yardage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyFairPlay001 Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 Listening to the Czaban show this morning and this fantasy guy pulls this stat. Willis average per carrry Running Left---- 5.3 Running Right----3.1 Number one surprised the hell out of me. Number two, with two new guys on the left side and guys stacking the box with the JP, are we DOOMED. Number three, my sense was big Mike and CV were are our strengths on the line, but this sure does not support that theory 404640[/snapback] 1. I dont care about this stat because it doesnt matter 2. SPECULATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted August 11, 2005 Author Share Posted August 11, 2005 when you run to the left, the ROG and C pull and block for the RB. and its safe to say Valarrial was better than smith last season. 404646[/snapback] Okay, here is a great page for the breakdown of his numbers is just about every situation. The real disparity appears to be when he runs to the sidelines, double the average going left vs going right, which I think would support your theory. This is pretty cool site for those of you playing fantasy, very detailed breakdown of the kind Billy Beane would like. http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/playerSplits?categoryId=140447 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richNjoisy Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 be careful with statistics - especially when handed out as one or 2 liners see if you can track down more information which is very pertinent to the evaluation of these statistics (trust me, this will be a bit of work!) things to consider (my initial thought laundry list) - how many attempts to each side? - which teams for each percentage of carries AND the actual numbr of attempts each side for each opponent - injuries - who was out for each particular game - long vs short runs - what was the MEDIAN run from each side? (This asks the question: Did Willis happen to get a FEW long runs left while attempting more runs to the right thus making the left look like he consistently achieved better results?) -rnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 I liked seeing the split from September to December: SEPTEMBER 11 runs 2.5 average OCTOBER 80 runs 3.9 average NOVEMBER 99 runs 3.9 average DECEMBER 76 runs 4.3 average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crows57 Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/playerSplits?categoryId=140447 404654[/snapback] Willis does best when the Bills are up by 15-21 points (6.1 YPC). I recommend the Bills lead by that many points in every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 Also - what hashmark were they lined up on? Left or right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 The weak link in your thesis actually may be point #2. Neither Jennings nor Smith/Tucker were "maulers" in the run game. Jennings was great in pass protection (except against John Abraham), but did you ever see him pancake anyone? By contrast, Bennie is a real "road-grader", and either Gandy or Peters (pleaseGodnotTeague) probably would provide more push in the running game than Jennings did. Also, relax. Willis has more speed to turn the corner this year. And, we all saw what he can do with our own eyes last year - stats notwithstanding. I ain't worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted August 11, 2005 Author Share Posted August 11, 2005 The weak link in your thesis actually may be point #2. Neither Jennings nor Smith/Tucker were "maulers" in the run game. Jennings was great in pass protection (except against John Abraham), but did you ever see him pancake anyone? By contrast, Bennie is a real "road-grader", and either Gandy or Peters (pleaseGodnotTeague) probably would provide more push in the running game than Jennings did. Also, relax. Willis has more speed to turn the corner this year. And, we all saw what he can do with our own eyes last year - stats notwithstanding. I ain't worried. 404679[/snapback] I'm not worried, hoped I was being facitios with the doomed statement.However, it does surprise me his avg is better going left. Now, it appears some of those stats are really skewed by the long run on the fake punt in Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 Actually what's scary is how Willis will look WHEN those right-sided stats come up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted August 11, 2005 Author Share Posted August 11, 2005 Actually what's scary is how Willis will look WHEN those right-sided stats come up! 404694[/snapback] Now thats the attitude!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 I liked seeing the split from September to December:SEPTEMBER 11 runs 2.5 average OCTOBER 80 runs 3.9 average NOVEMBER 99 runs 3.9 average DECEMBER 76 runs 4.3 average 404664[/snapback] No doubt these are mirror images of the won/loss record of our opponents in those months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 Listening to the Czaban show this morning and this fantasy guy pulls this stat. Willis average per carrry Running Left---- 5.3 Running Right----3.1 Number one surprised the hell out of me. Number two, with two new guys on the left side and guys stacking the box with the JP, are we DOOMED. Number three, my sense was big Mike and CV were are our strengths on the line, but this sure does not support that theory 404640[/snapback] Those numbers can be easily skewed with one or two long runs. If he runs 10 times for 3.0 yards to the left and runs 10 times to the right gaining 3.0 yards for 9 of those carries but gets 20 on the tenth carry the averages would read 3.0 yards per carry on the left and 4.7 yards per carry to the right. Would that mean that the guys on the right are blocking better than the guys on the right or that we just happened to catch our opponent in the wrong defense for a play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaBills Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 I liked seeing the split from September to December:SEPTEMBER 11 runs 2.5 average OCTOBER 80 runs 3.9 average NOVEMBER 99 runs 3.9 average DECEMBER 76 runs 4.3 average 404664[/snapback] No doubt these are mirror images of the won/loss record of our opponents in those months. 404709[/snapback] Or, you could say it's very indicative of when we started to play crappy teams during mostly all of that winning streak. That's also when the D really ran up their dominant stats. We weren't exactly playing powerhouses. Now, if we do it this year, against a much tougher schedule, then we have something to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 Those numbers can be easily skewed with one or two long runs. If he runs 10 times for 3.0 yards to the left and runs 10 times to the right gaining 3.0 yards for 9 of those carries but gets 20 on the tenth carry the averages would read 3.0 yards per carry on the left and 4.7 yards per carry to the right. Would that mean that the guys on the right are blocking better than the guys on the right or that we just happened to catch our opponent in the wrong defense for a play? 404714[/snapback] McGahee also lost something like 13 yards in one screwed up play in the raiders game when he was heading to the right side. that'll screw up your stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jad1 Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 No doubt these are mirror images of the won/loss record of our opponents in those months. 404709[/snapback] Actually, if you look at the 5 playoff teams the Bills played with Willis starting(opponents combined record of 57-24), Willis' averages are quite good, with the exception of NE: NE - 2.6 ave (37 yards) NYJ - 3.6 ave (132 yds) Stl - 5.0 ave (100yds) Sea - 4.1 ave (116 yds) Pit - 4.4 ave (79 yds) So if you total it up, McGahee had 464 yards on 117 carries against playoff teams, for a 3.96 average, which is right on his overall 4.0 ypc. The idea that McGahee only ran well against poor teams is a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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